1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Nov 21
  3. COLU @ BU
NCAAB · Sat, Nov 21

Columbia Lions at Boston University Terriers

Case Gym · at Boston U
#170COLUColumbia
@
#261BUBoston U
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
COLUThis seasonBU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects COLU 74–71 · win probability COLU 61%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 145.6
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

COLU 2, BU 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
COLUBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: COLU 36.0%, BU 28.0%. Defensive: COLU 72.8%, BU 72.0%
Context
Schedule so far
COLU has played the 169th-hardest schedule, BU the 296th. A record against a soft schedule means less
COLUSmall
BU offense vs COLU defense
Offense 305th of 366 against a defense 198th, on the model’s ratings
BUSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: COLU 28.6, BU 31.4. Allowed: COLU 33.5, BU 30.5
Context
Tempo
About 67 possessions: COLU plays 67.8 a game (237th fastest), BU 65.2 (340th). Faster games mean more points
BUSmall
Home court
BU at home. This season: BU 0-0 at home, COLU 0-0 away
Even
COLU offense vs BU defense
Offense 163rd of 366 against a defense 201st, on the model’s ratings
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: COLU 53.5 and allows 51.2; BU 57.5 and allows 53.6
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: COLU 61%, BU 52%. Transfers in: COLU 1, BU 1. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Three-pointers
COLU hits 35.9% and allows 35.2%; BU hits 38.9% and allows 36.6%. Threes are 37.5% and 43.8% of their shots
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: COLU 19.3%, BU 17.7%. Forced: COLU 15.1%, BU 13.0%
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—COLU -3.1—
Total—145.6—
Projected score—COLU 74.4 · BU 71.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadCOLU -2.0—
1H total68.1—
1H projected scoreCOLU 35 · BU 33.1—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Columbia has the better starters

Position by position: Columbia 2, Boston U 0, even 3
ColumbiaBetterBoston U
G M. Franklin9.4 pts · 4.1 reb · 1 ast Score 48
COLUBig
G A. Abdullah8.2 pts · 3.4 reb · 1.4 ast Score 13
G G. O'Keefe7.9 pts · 1.8 reb · 0.9 ast Score 45
Even
G D. Tisinger6.1 pts · 2 reb · 1.8 ast Score 37
G H. Sanders4.2 pts · 1.7 reb · 1.8 ast Score 38
No call
G K. Alexander1 pts · 2 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
F M. Ritter6.9 pts · 5 reb · 1.7 ast Score 21
Even
F S. Hughes9.2 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.3 ast Score 10
F C. Igoe8.2 pts · 5.4 reb · 2.8 ast Score 72
COLUBig
F Q. Nielsen1 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.1 ast Score 5
ColumbiaBetterBoston U
COLU offense163rd of 366 · -4.9
Even
BU defense201st of 366 · -5.0
COLU defense198th of 366 · -4.8
COLUSmall
BU offense305th of 366 · -9.5
Backcourt-2.1 · 3 players
COLUSmall
Backcourt-5.1 · 3 players
Frontcourt-1.1 · 2 players
COLUBig
Frontcourt-4.3 · 2 players
Bench-1.9 · 4 players
BUSmall
Bench-0.1 · 3 players
Score, worst to bestCOLU betterBU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Columbia
Guards
M. Franklin24 minG. O'Keefe21 minH. Sanders15 minJ. Cunningham4 minD. VesseyNewN. RomanelliNew
Forwards
M. Ritter25 minC. Igoe20 minD. Langford11 min · TRR. Nweke8 minL. Coleman4 minN. ClarksonNew
Boston U
Guards
A. Abdullah30 minD. Tisinger20 minK. Alexander11 minP. Carr2 minA. ZakheimNewJ. TerryNew
Forwards
S. Hughes30 minQ. Nielsen8 minM. Oberti4 min · TRA. Bhesania3 minM. BaptisteNewD. LloydNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
COLUBU
Scoring
74.9 #167Points per game74.5 #176
1.10 #130Points per possession1.14 #72
67.8 #237Pace (possessions)65.2 #340
Shooting
53.5 #83Effective FG%57.5 #11
35.9 #613-point %38.9 #5
37.5 #2213-point attempt rate43.8 #92
28.6 #337Free throw rate31.4 #270
Possessions
19.3 #332Turnover rate17.7 #252
36.0 #23Offensive rebound rate28.0 #269
15.0 #90Assists per game14.2 #131
Defense
73.5 #145Points allowed74.5 #174
1.09 #188Points allowed per possession1.14 #310
51.2 #168Opponent effective FG%53.6 #288
35.2 #258Opponent 3-point %36.6 #330
15.1 #282Turnovers forced13.0 #353
72.8 #42Defensive rebound rate72.0 #65
5.7 #270Steals per game4.7 #346
3.0 #235Blocks per game3.3 #181
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Columbia

14-12 in 2025-26 overall · 5-9 in conference · Ivy League

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Harvard71–81
  • Lvs Yale54–60
  • Wvs Brown80–62
  • Lvs Dartmouth63–64
  • W@ Princeton75–65

A week or more of rest.

Boston U

16-17 in 2025-26 overall · 12-9 in conference · Patriot League

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Lehigh60–74
  • W@ Navy73–72
  • Wvs American75–73
  • W@ American68–65
  • Wvs Holy Cross78–63

A week or more of rest.