Drake Bulldogs at Missouri State Bears: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 21, 3:00 PM ETGreat Southern Bank Arena · at Missouri St

#144DRKEDrake

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Drake and Missouri St
DRKE	This season	MOST
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects DRKE 75–71 · win probability DRKE 62%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 146.1

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DRKE has more of the edges

DRKE 3, MOST 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

DRKEBig

MOST offense vs DRKE defense

Offense 275th of 366 against a defense 132nd, on the model’s ratings

MOSTSmall

Home court

MOST at home. This season: MOST 0-0 at home, DRKE 0-0 away

DRKESmall

DRKE offense vs MOST defense

Offense 168th of 366 against a defense 219th, on the model’s ratings

DRKESmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: DRKE 51%, MOST 25%. Transfers in: DRKE 3, MOST 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: DRKE 26.6%, MOST 32.0%. Defensive: DRKE 70.1%, MOST 68.0%

Context

Schedule so far

DRKE has played the 147th-hardest schedule, MOST the 180th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: DRKE plays 68.4 a game (209th fastest), MOST 67.4 (261st). Faster games mean more points

Even

Three-pointers

DRKE hits 34.0% and allows 36.4%; MOST hits 33.0% and allows 34.4%. Threes are 45.7% and 41.3% of their shots

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: DRKE 15.0%, MOST 16.7%. Forced: DRKE 14.6%, MOST 16.9%

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: DRKE 51.4 and allows 52.6; MOST 51.1 and allows 52.0

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: DRKE 33.5, MOST 43.8. Allowed: DRKE 32.0, MOST 40.2

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	DRKE -3.5	—
Total	—	146.1	—
Projected score	—	DRKE 74.8 · MOST 71.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	DRKE -2.2	—
1H total	68.3	—
1H projected score	DRKE 35.3 · MOST 33.1	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DRKE LLWWL	12-20	38%	5-6	—
MOST WLWWL	18-13	58%	7-8	—

Venue/role: DRKE away; MOST home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
DRKE UUUOU	18-14	56%	12-20
MOST OUUOO	19-12	61%	13-18

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DRKE	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%
MOST	3-7 30%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Drake

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 27	vs BOIS	No recent meeting
Nov 28	vs NDSU	L94–99LO
Nov 29	vs UNT	L54–57LU

Missouri St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 27	@ ORU	W63–62LU
Nov 30	vs LIN	W70–65WU
Dec 3	@ ARST	L85–86LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 9 since 2021-22

DRKE 4–5 MOSTMOST leads · 9 games since 2021-22 · DRKE has won the last 2 meetings · DRKE 2-7 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Mar 2, 2024-25	MOST 60 @ DRKE 68	DRKE -14.5	MOST W
Jan 25, 2024-25	DRKE 69 @ MOST 62	MOST +8.5	MOST W
Jan 24, 2023-24	DRKE 80 @ MOST 83	MOST +6.5	MOST W
Dec 2, 2023-24	MOST 57 @ DRKE 74	DRKE -7.5	DRKE W
Jan 18, 2022-23	MOST 65 @ DRKE 62	DRKE -6.5	MOST W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Drake

32 games played

Straight up

12-20

38% wins

Against the spread

12-20

38% covers · avg −0.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

18-14

56% overs · avg +3.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

12-2038%

W L L W L W W L L L W L W L L W L W W W L L L L L L L L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

12-2038%

L L L W W W W L L L W L L L W W L W W L L L W L L L L L L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

18-1456%

O O U U U O O U O U U U U O O O O O U O O O O O O O U U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsNAU	W 77-71	-8.5	L −2.5	144.5	O 148
Nov 6	vsRMU	L 79-81	-7.5	L −9.5	151.5	O 160
Nov 14	vsSIUE	L 59-61	-7.5	L −9.5	142.5	U 120
Nov 17	@COFC	W 71-62	+7.5	W +16.5	153.5	U 133
Nov 28	vsLSU	L 62-71	+11.5	W +2.5	151.5	U 133
Nov 29	vsGT	W 84-74	+4.5	W +14.5	137.5	O 158
Dec 2	vsWIU	W 108-57	-17.5	W +33.5	138.5	O 165
Dec 5	vsUAB	L 69-74	-1.5	L −6.5	148.5	U 143
Dec 13	vsNDSU	L 94-99	-5.5	L −10.5	145.5	O 193
Dec 18	@MUR	L 72-81	+7.5	L −1.5	156.5	U 153
Dec 21	@EVAN	W 66-65	+2.5	W +3.5	141.5	U 131
Dec 29	vsILST	L 56-73	+4.5	L −12.5	145.5	U 129
Jan 4	vsINST	W 74-72	-6.5	L −4.5	149.5	U 146
Jan 7	@BRAD	L 66-93	+6.5	L −20.5	144.5	O 159
Jan 10	vsBEL	L 76-78	+4.5	W +2.5	148.5	O 154
Jan 14	@SIU	W 76-73	+5.5	W +8.5	144.5	O 149
Jan 17	@UIC	L 67-74	+5.5	L −1.5	139.5	O 141
Jan 21	vsMUR	W 101-90	+4.5	W +15.5	156.5	O 191
Jan 24	@INST	W 76-62	+3.5	W +17.5	151.5	U 138
Jan 28	vsEVAN	W 82-78	-8.5	L −4.5	143.5	O 160
Jan 31	vsBRAD	L 73-87	+2.5	L −11.5	150.5	O 160
Feb 3	@BEL	L 90-103	+9.5	L −3.5	154.5	O 193
Feb 6	@ILST	L 76-86	+10.5	W +0.5	144.5	O 162
Feb 9	vsVAL	L 76-81	-3.5	L −8.5	144.5	O 157
Feb 12	vsUIC	L 70-80	+1.5	L −8.5	146.5	O 150
Feb 15	@UNI	L 62-86	+8.5	L −15.5	138.5	O 148
Feb 18	vsSIU	L 61-66	+1.5	L −3.5	149.5	U 127
Feb 25	@VAL	L 71-74	+2.5	L −0.5	146.5	U 145
Mar 1	vsUNI	L 53-75	+4.5	L −17.5	137.5	U 128
Mar 5	vsSIU	W 67-63	+5.5	W +9.5	140.5	U 130
Mar 6	vsBEL	W 100-79	+12.5	W +33.5	152.5	O 179
Mar 7	vsUIC	L 51-72	+4.5	L −16.5	144.5	U 123

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NAU

W 77-71

−2.5

RMU

L 79-81

−9.5

SIUE

L 59-61

−9.5

COFC

W 71-62

+16.5

LSU

L 62-71

+2.5

W 84-74

+14.5

WIU

W 108-57

+33.5

UAB

L 69-74

−6.5

NDSU

L 94-99

−10.5

MUR

L 72-81

−1.5

EVAN

W 66-65

+3.5

ILST

L 56-73

−12.5

INST

W 74-72

−4.5

BRAD

L 66-93

−20.5

BEL

L 76-78

+2.5

SIU

W 76-73

+8.5

UIC

L 67-74

−1.5

MUR

W 101-90

+15.5

INST

W 76-62

+17.5

EVAN

W 82-78

−4.5

BRAD

L 73-87

−11.5

BEL

L 90-103

−3.5

ILST

L 76-86

+0.5

VAL

L 76-81

−8.5

UIC

L 70-80

−8.5

UNI

L 62-86

−15.5

SIU

L 61-66

−3.5

VAL

L 71-74

−0.5

UNI

L 53-75

−17.5

SIU

W 67-63

+9.5

BEL

W 100-79

+33.5

UIC

L 51-72

−16.5

covered 12didn’t cover 20avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NAU

W 77-71

+3.5

RMU

L 79-81

+8.5

SIUE

L 59-61

−22.5

COFC

W 71-62

−20.5

LSU

L 62-71

−18.5

W 84-74

+20.5

WIU

W 108-57

+26.5

UAB

L 69-74

−5.5

NDSU

L 94-99

+47.5

MUR

L 72-81

−3.5

EVAN

W 66-65

−10.5

ILST

L 56-73

−16.5

INST

W 74-72

−3.5

BRAD

L 66-93

+14.5

BEL

L 76-78

+5.5

SIU

W 76-73

+4.5

UIC

L 67-74

+1.5

MUR

W 101-90

+34.5

INST

W 76-62

−13.5

EVAN

W 82-78

+16.5

BRAD

L 73-87

+9.5

BEL

L 90-103

+38.5

ILST

L 76-86

+17.5

VAL

L 76-81

+12.5

UIC

L 70-80

+3.5

UNI

L 62-86

+9.5

SIU

L 61-66

−22.5

VAL

L 71-74

−1.5

UNI

L 53-75

−9.5

SIU

W 67-63

−10.5

BEL

W 100-79

+26.5

UIC

L 51-72

−21.5

over 18under 14avg +3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Missouri St

31 games played

Straight up

13-18

42% wins

Against the spread

18-13

58% covers · avg −0.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

19-12

61% overs · avg +3.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

13-1842%

L L W L L L W W W W W L W L L W W L W L L L L L L L W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

18-1358%

L L W L L W L W W W W L W L W W W L W W L L L W W W W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

19-1261%

O U U U O U U U U O O O U O O O U O O O O O O U O O O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 11	vsARST	L 85-86	-1.5	L −2.5	152.5	O 171
Nov 15	@UTA	L 49-67	+3.5	L −14.5	143.5	U 116
Nov 22	vsRGV	W 74-67	-3.5	W +3.5	149.5	U 141
Nov 24	vsLIU	L 61-75	-4.5	L −18.5	145.5	U 136
Dec 6	@TLSA	L 74-98	+7.5	L −16.5	142.5	O 172
Dec 12	@XAV	L 57-75	+18.5	W +0.5	151.5	U 132
Dec 16	vsORU	W 63-62	-4.5	L −3.5	146.5	U 125
Dec 23	vsLIN	W 70-65	-3.5	W +1.5	145.5	U 135
Dec 29	@DEL	W 61-43	-1.5	W +16.5	131.5	U 104
Jan 2	vsUTEP	W 79-55	-3.5	W +20.5	131.5	O 134
Jan 4	vsNMSU	W 89-82	-1.5	W +5.5	134.5	O 171
Jan 7	@KENN	L 80-90	+6.5	L −3.5	152.5	O 170
Jan 10	vsFIU	W 79-71	-2.5	W +5.5	153.5	U 150
Jan 14	@WKU	L 72-87	+6.5	L −8.5	148.5	O 159
Jan 17	@MTSU	L 87-90	+5.5	W +2.5	137.5	O 177
Jan 22	@NMSU	W 84-75	+6.5	W +15.5	144.5	O 159
Jan 24	@UTEP	W 62-57	-1.5	W +3.5	139.5	U 119
Jan 28	vsSHSU	L 71-80	-1.5	L −10.5	148.5	O 151
Jan 31	vsJXST	W 74-67	-4.5	W +2.5	135.5	O 141
Feb 7	@LIB	L 76-79	+9.5	W +6.5	140.5	O 155
Feb 12	vsLT	L 78-79	-3.5	L −4.5	136.5	O 157
Feb 14	vsDEL	L 67-76	-9.5	L −18.5	135.5	O 143
Feb 18	vsKENN	L 87-91	-1.5	L −5.5	152.5	O 178
Feb 21	@FIU	L 67-70	+3.5	W +0.5	154.5	U 137
Feb 26	@LT	L 70-72	+2.5	W +0.5	138.5	O 142
Feb 28	@SHSU	L 81-86	+6.5	W +1.5	152.5	O 167
Mar 5	vsWKU	W 87-74	+1.5	W +14.5	152.5	O 161
Mar 7	vsMTSU	L 63-75	-2.5	L −14.5	145.5	U 138
Mar 10	vsFIU	W 75-72	-1.5	W +1.5	152.5	U 147
Mar 11	vsLIB	W 77-69	+4.5	W +12.5	142.5	O 146
Mar 13	vsLT	L 66-69	-1.5	L −4.5	134.5	O 135

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ARST

L 85-86

−2.5

UTA

L 49-67

−14.5

RGV

W 74-67

+3.5

LIU

L 61-75

−18.5

TLSA

L 74-98

−16.5

XAV

L 57-75

+0.5

ORU

W 63-62

−3.5

LIN

W 70-65

+1.5

DEL

W 61-43

+16.5

UTEP

W 79-55

+20.5

NMSU

W 89-82

+5.5

KENN

L 80-90

−3.5

FIU

W 79-71

+5.5

WKU

L 72-87

−8.5

MTSU

L 87-90

+2.5

NMSU

W 84-75

+15.5

UTEP

W 62-57

+3.5

SHSU

L 71-80

−10.5

JXST

W 74-67

+2.5

LIB

L 76-79

+6.5

L 78-79

−4.5

DEL

L 67-76

−18.5

KENN

L 87-91

−5.5

FIU

L 67-70

+0.5

L 70-72

+0.5

SHSU

L 81-86

+1.5

WKU

W 87-74

+14.5

MTSU

L 63-75

−14.5

FIU

W 75-72

+1.5

LIB

W 77-69

+12.5

L 66-69

−4.5

covered 18didn’t cover 13avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ARST

L 85-86

+18.5

UTA

L 49-67

−27.5

RGV

W 74-67

−8.5

LIU

L 61-75

−9.5

TLSA

L 74-98

+29.5

XAV

L 57-75

−19.5

ORU

W 63-62

−21.5

LIN

W 70-65

−10.5

DEL

W 61-43

−27.5

UTEP

W 79-55

+2.5

NMSU

W 89-82

+36.5

KENN

L 80-90

+17.5

FIU

W 79-71

−3.5

WKU

L 72-87

+10.5

MTSU

L 87-90

+39.5

NMSU

W 84-75

+14.5

UTEP

W 62-57

−20.5

SHSU

L 71-80

+2.5

JXST

W 74-67

+5.5

LIB

L 76-79

+14.5

L 78-79

+20.5

DEL

L 67-76

+7.5

KENN

L 87-91

+25.5

FIU

L 67-70

−17.5

L 70-72

+3.5

SHSU

L 81-86

+14.5

WKU

W 87-74

+8.5

MTSU

L 63-75

−7.5

FIU

W 75-72

−5.5

LIB

W 77-69

+3.5

L 66-69

+0.5

over 19under 12avg +3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Drake has the better starters

Position by position: Drake 1, Missouri St 0, even 4

DrakeBetterMissouri St

G A. Alia6.8 pts · 4.7 reb · 1.4 ast Score 27

Even

G T. Williams9.2 pts · 1.9 reb · 3.2 ast Score 34

G O. Larson10 pts · 3.3 reb · 2.8 ast Score 42

Even

G M. Cunningham3.1 pts · 2 reb · 0.6 ast Score 43

G E. Shetlar9 pts · 4.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 57

DRKEBig

F C. Boone1.3 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.1 ast Score 19

F G. Oldham TR5.5 pts · 7.5 reb · 1 ast Score 21

No call

F M. Gray NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked

F J. Carroll TR10.7 pts · 8.1 reb · 0.6 ast Score 78

No call

F C. Thompson NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked

DrakeBetterMissouri St

DRKE offense168th of 366 · -5.1

Even

MOST defense219th of 366 · -5.7

DRKE defense132nd of 366 · -2.5

DRKEBig

MOST offense275th of 366 · -8.4

Backcourt-3.7 · 3 players

MOSTSmall

Backcourt-2.2 · 2 players

Frontcourt-0.5 · 2 players

Even

Frontcourt-0.6 · 3 players

Bench+0.1 · 2 players

No call

BenchNo numbers yet

Score, worst to bestDRKE betterMOST betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Drake

Guards

A. Alia32 minO. Larson29 minE. Shetlar28 minD. Kindell17 min · TRD. IjadimbolaNewL. RushNew

Forwards

G. Oldham26 min · TRJ. Carroll25 min · TRG. Goodbary13 minJ. BurnsNewM. FlemonsNew

Missouri St

Guards

T. Williams31 minM. Cunningham12 minK. StubblefieldNewJ. BlairNewD. RoweNew

Forwards

C. Boone8 minM. GrayNewC. ThompsonNewN. RueyNewL. RolleNewI. MedinaNew

Centers

A. AcimovicNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

DRKE73.9 #200

MOST73.1 #223

Points per possession

DRKE1.08 #182

MOST1.09 #169

Pace (possessions)

DRKE68.4 #209

MOST67.4 #261

Shooting

Effective FG%

DRKE51.4 #179

MOST51.1 #191

3-point %

DRKE34.0 #172

MOST33.0 #236

3-point attempt rate

DRKE45.7 #53

MOST41.3 #144

Free throw rate

DRKE33.5 #223

MOST43.8 #12

Possessions

Turnover rate

DRKE15.0 #64

MOST16.7 #180

Offensive rebound rate

DRKE26.6 #310

MOST32.0 #124

Assists per game

DRKE13.1 #202

MOST13.9 #155

Defense

Points allowed

DRKE76.3 #225

MOST74.3 #166

Points allowed per possession

DRKE1.12 #261

MOST1.10 #222

Opponent effective FG%

DRKE52.6 #246

MOST52.0 #217

Opponent 3-point %

DRKE36.4 #323

MOST34.4 #209

Turnovers forced

DRKE14.6 #315

MOST16.9 #158

Defensive rebound rate

DRKE70.1 #155

MOST68.0 #261

Steals per game

DRKE5.2 #319

MOST6.7 #152

Blocks per game

DRKE2.9 #241

MOST3.0 #215

DRKE		MOST
Scoring
73.9 #200	Points per game	73.1 #223
1.08 #182	Points per possession	1.09 #169
68.4 #209	Pace (possessions)	67.4 #261
Shooting
51.4 #179	Effective FG%	51.1 #191
34.0 #172	3-point %	33.0 #236
45.7 #53	3-point attempt rate	41.3 #144
33.5 #223	Free throw rate	43.8 #12
Possessions
15.0 #64	Turnover rate	16.7 #180
26.6 #310	Offensive rebound rate	32.0 #124
13.1 #202	Assists per game	13.9 #155
Defense
76.3 #225	Points allowed	74.3 #166
1.12 #261	Points allowed per possession	1.10 #222
52.6 #246	Opponent effective FG%	52.0 #217
36.4 #323	Opponent 3-point %	34.4 #209
14.6 #315	Turnovers forced	16.9 #158
70.1 #155	Defensive rebound rate	68.0 #261
5.2 #319	Steals per game	6.7 #152
2.9 #241	Blocks per game	3.0 #215

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Drake

12-20 in 2025-26 overall · 8-15 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs UIC51–72
Wvs Belmont100–79
Wvs S Illinois67–63
Lvs Northern Iowa53–75
L@ Valparaiso71–74

A week or more of rest.

Missouri St

13-18 in 2025-26 overall · 10-13 in conference · Conference USA

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Louisiana Tech66–69
Wvs Liberty77–69
Wvs FIU75–72
Lvs MTSU63–75
Wvs Western KY87–74

A week or more of rest.

Drake Bulldogs at Missouri State Bears

What could decide it: DRKE has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Drake

Missouri St

Drake has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Drake

Missouri St