Lafayette Leopards at Syracuse Orange: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 21, 2:00 PM ETJMA Wireless Dome · at Syracuse

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Lafayette and Syracuse
LAF	This season	SYR
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SYR 87–61 · win probability SYR 99%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 147.8

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SYR has more of the edges

LAF 1, SYR 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

SYRBig

LAF offense vs SYR defense

Offense 330th of 366 against a defense 67th, on the model’s ratings

SYRBig

SYR offense vs LAF defense

Offense 60th of 366 against a defense 245th, on the model’s ratings

SYRBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: LAF 49.3 and allows 53.6; SYR 52.6 and allows 50.3

Context

Schedule so far

LAF has played the 230th-hardest schedule, SYR the 67th. A record against a soft schedule means less

SYRSmall

Three-pointers

LAF hits 32.1% and allows 36.0%; SYR hits 32.9% and allows 34.1%. Threes are 39.8% and 37.1% of their shots

LAFSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: LAF 25.8%, SYR 29.2%. Defensive: LAF 71.4%, SYR 66.4%

SYRSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: LAF 15.3%, SYR 15.9%. Forced: LAF 15.1%, SYR 17.4%

SYRSmall

Home court

SYR at home. This season: SYR 0-0 at home, LAF 0-0 away

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: LAF plays 67.2 a game (274th fastest), SYR 69.1 (173rd). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: LAF 34%, SYR 19%. Transfers in: LAF 1, SYR 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: LAF 32.5, SYR 35.1. Allowed: LAF 30.6, SYR 32.6

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	SYR -26.6	—
Total	—	147.8	—
Projected score	—	LAF 60.6 · SYR 87.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	SYR -15.7	—
1H total	69.1	—
1H projected score	LAF 26.7 · SYR 42.4	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LAF WLWWL	13-17	43%	10-6	—
SYR LLLLL	14-18	44%	8-10	—

Venue/role: LAF away; SYR home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
LAF OUUOO	17-13	57%	10-21
SYR UOUUO	17-15	53%	15-17

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LAF	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%
SYR	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Lafayette

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 27	vs NIA	W59–47WU
Nov 28	vs ME	No recent meeting
Nov 29	vs LEM	L63–76LU

Syracuse

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 25	vs UALB	W102–85WO
Dec 1	@ OU	No recent meeting
Dec 8	vs COLG	W74–72LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

LAF 0–1 SYRSYR leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · LAF 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 9, 2021-22	LAF 63 @ SYR 97	SYR -25.5	SYR W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Lafayette

31 games played

Straight up

10-21

32% wins

Against the spread

13-17

43% covers · avg −2.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

17-13

57% overs · avg +0.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

10-2132%

L L L L L L W L W L L L L W L L L W L L W W L W L L W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

13-1743%

W L L W L L W L–W L W L W L L L W W L L W L W L L W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

17-1357%

O O O O O U U O–U O O O U O U O U O U O U U U U O O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@JOES	L 76-85	+13.5	W +4.5	138.5	O 161
Nov 8	@TEX	L 60-97	+25.5	L −11.5	153.5	O 157
Nov 13	vsCOR	L 78-97	+4.5	L −14.5	160.5	O 175
Nov 17	@WVU	L 59-81	+24.5	W +2.5	135.5	O 140
Nov 21	@STO	L 70-74	-1.5	L −5.5	141.5	O 144
Nov 28	vsLEM	L 63-76	-4.5	L −17.5	151.5	U 139
Nov 29	vsBALL	W 55-37	+1.5	W +19.5	140.5	U 92
Nov 30	vsMONM	L 74-88	+1.5	L −12.5	141.5	O 162
Dec 5	vsMERC	W 79-71	—	—	—	—
Dec 8	@PENN	L 72-74	+7.5	W +5.5	150.5	U 146
Dec 18	@CLT	L 67-81	+11.5	L −2.5	137.5	O 148
Dec 20	@GT	L 81-95	+16.5	W +2.5	147.5	O 176
Dec 31	vsCOLG	L 77-85	+6.5	L −1.5	146.5	O 162
Jan 3	@L-MD	W 79-64	-1.5	W +13.5	152.5	U 143
Jan 7	vsBU	L 67-83	+1.5	L −14.5	142.5	O 150
Jan 10	@NAVY	L 50-76	+8.5	L −17.5	141.5	U 126
Jan 14	@BUCK	L 69-76	+2.5	L −4.5	137.5	O 145
Jan 17	vsHC	W 74-55	-2.5	W +16.5	138.5	U 129
Jan 21	@BU	L 73-77	+4.5	W +0.5	145.5	O 150
Jan 24	@LEH	L 59-64	+2.5	L −2.5	143.5	U 123
Jan 28	vsBUCK	W 81-79	-4.5	L −2.5	138.5	O 160
Jan 31	@AMER	W 67-65	+5.5	W +7.5	142.5	U 132
Feb 4	vsNAVY	L 50-65	+3.5	L −11.5	139.5	U 115
Feb 7	@ARMY	W 63-60	-1.5	W +1.5	142.5	U 123
Feb 11	vsL-MD	L 54-68	-3.5	L −17.5	147.5	U 122
Feb 14	vsLEH	L 69-78	-2.5	L −11.5	140.5	O 147
Feb 18	@HC	W 86-83	+1.5	W +4.5	139.5	O 169
Feb 22	vsAMER	L 61-75	+3.5	L −10.5	141.5	U 136
Feb 25	@COLG	W 70-69	+8.5	W +9.5	148.5	U 139
Feb 28	vsARMY	W 83-77	-3.5	W +2.5	144.5	O 160
Mar 3	vsHC	L 77-82	-4.5	L −9.5	141.5	O 159

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

JOES

L 76-85

+4.5

TEX

L 60-97

−11.5

COR

L 78-97

−14.5

WVU

L 59-81

+2.5

STO

L 70-74

−5.5

LEM

L 63-76

−17.5

BALL

W 55-37

+19.5

MONM

L 74-88

−12.5

PENN

L 72-74

+5.5

CLT

L 67-81

−2.5

L 81-95

+2.5

COLG

L 77-85

−1.5

L-MD

W 79-64

+13.5

L 67-83

−14.5

NAVY

L 50-76

−17.5

BUCK

L 69-76

−4.5

W 74-55

+16.5

L 73-77

+0.5

LEH

L 59-64

−2.5

BUCK

W 81-79

−2.5

AMER

W 67-65

+7.5

NAVY

L 50-65

−11.5

ARMY

W 63-60

+1.5

L-MD

L 54-68

−17.5

LEH

L 69-78

−11.5

W 86-83

+4.5

AMER

L 61-75

−10.5

COLG

W 70-69

+9.5

ARMY

W 83-77

+2.5

L 77-82

−9.5

covered 13didn’t cover 17avg −2.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

JOES

L 76-85

+22.5

TEX

L 60-97

+3.5

COR

L 78-97

+14.5

WVU

L 59-81

+4.5

STO

L 70-74

+2.5

LEM

L 63-76

−12.5

BALL

W 55-37

−48.5

MONM

L 74-88

+20.5

PENN

L 72-74

−4.5

CLT

L 67-81

+10.5

L 81-95

+28.5

COLG

L 77-85

+15.5

L-MD

W 79-64

−9.5

L 67-83

+7.5

NAVY

L 50-76

−15.5

BUCK

L 69-76

+7.5

W 74-55

−9.5

L 73-77

+4.5

LEH

L 59-64

−20.5

BUCK

W 81-79

+21.5

AMER

W 67-65

−10.5

NAVY

L 50-65

−24.5

ARMY

W 63-60

−19.5

L-MD

L 54-68

−25.5

LEH

L 69-78

+6.5

W 86-83

+29.5

AMER

L 61-75

−5.5

COLG

W 70-69

−9.5

ARMY

W 83-77

+15.5

L 77-82

+17.5

over 17under 13avg +0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Syracuse

32 games played

Straight up

15-17

47% wins

Against the spread

14-18

44% covers · avg −1.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

17-15

53% overs · avg +1.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

15-1747%

W W W W L L L W W L W W W L W W W L L L L W L L W W L L L L L L

6 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

14-1844%

W W W L W L L W L L L L W L W W W L L L L W W W W W L L L L L L

6 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

17-1553%

U U U O O U O U U U O O U U O O O O U O O O O U O U O U O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsBING	W 85-47	-21.5	W +16.5	153.5	U 132
Nov 8	vsDSU	W 83-43	-26.5	W +13.5	157.5	U 126
Nov 15	vsDREX	W 80-50	-11.5	W +18.5	143.5	U 130
Nov 18	vsMONM	W 78-73	-21.5	L −16.5	145.5	O 151
Nov 24	vsHOU	L 74-78	+14.5	W +10.5	140.5	O 152
Nov 25	vsKU	L 60-71	+4.5	L −6.5	144.5	U 131
Nov 26	vsISU	L 64-95	+10.5	L −20.5	145.5	O 159
Dec 2	vsTENN	W 62-60	+7.5	W +9.5	147.5	U 122
Dec 11	vsJOES	W 71-63	-11.5	L −3.5	146.5	U 134
Dec 13	vsHOF	L 69-70	-9.5	L −10.5	139.5	U 139
Dec 17	vsMERC	W 76-62	-24.5	L −10.5	131.5	O 138
Dec 20	vsNE	W 91-83	-14.5	L −6.5	140.5	O 174
Dec 22	vsSTO	W 77-48	-22.5	W +6.5	140.5	U 125
Dec 31	vsCLEM	L 61-64	+1.5	L −1.5	140.5	U 125
Jan 6	@GT	W 82-72	-2.5	W +7.5	146.5	O 154
Jan 10	@PITT	W 83-72	+1.5	W +12.5	142.5	O 155
Jan 13	vsFSU	W 94-86	-4.5	W +3.5	160.5	O 180
Jan 17	@BC	L 73-81	-5.5	L −13.5	141.5	O 154
Jan 21	vsVT	L 74-76	-3.5	L −5.5	152.5	U 150
Jan 24	vsMIA	L 76-85	+1.5	L −7.5	149.5	O 161
Jan 27	@NCSU	L 68-88	+10.5	L −9.5	151.5	O 156
Jan 31	vsND	W 86-72	-6.5	W +7.5	147.5	O 158
Feb 2	@UNC	L 77-87	+11.5	W +1.5	158.5	O 164
Feb 7	@UVA	L 59-72	+13.5	W +0.5	147.5	U 131
Feb 11	vsCAL	W 107-100	-6.5	W +0.5	148.5	O 207
Feb 14	vsSMU	W 79-78	+1.5	W +2.5	157.5	U 157
Feb 16	@DUKE	L 64-101	+20.5	L −16.5	144.5	O 165
Feb 21	vsUNC	L 64-77	-2.5	L −15.5	154.5	U 141
Feb 28	@WAKE	L 83-88	+3.5	L −1.5	152.5	O 171
Mar 3	@LOU	L 62-77	+14.5	L −0.5	159.5	U 139
Mar 7	vsPITT	L 69-71	-5.5	L −7.5	141.5	U 140
Mar 10	vsSMU	L 69-86	+3.5	L −13.5	154.5	O 155

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BING

W 85-47

+16.5

DSU

W 83-43

+13.5

DREX

W 80-50

+18.5

MONM

W 78-73

−16.5

HOU

L 74-78

+10.5

L 60-71

−6.5

ISU

L 64-95

−20.5

TENN

W 62-60

+9.5

JOES

W 71-63

−3.5

HOF

L 69-70

−10.5

MERC

W 76-62

−10.5

W 91-83

−6.5

STO

W 77-48

+6.5

CLEM

L 61-64

−1.5

W 82-72

+7.5

PITT

W 83-72

+12.5

FSU

W 94-86

+3.5

L 73-81

−13.5

L 74-76

−5.5

MIA

L 76-85

−7.5

NCSU

L 68-88

−9.5

W 86-72

+7.5

UNC

L 77-87

+1.5

UVA

L 59-72

+0.5

CAL

W 107-100

+0.5

SMU

W 79-78

+2.5

DUKE

L 64-101

−16.5

UNC

L 64-77

−15.5

WAKE

L 83-88

−1.5

LOU

L 62-77

−0.5

PITT

L 69-71

−7.5

SMU

L 69-86

−13.5

covered 14didn’t cover 18avg −1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BING

W 85-47

−21.5

DSU

W 83-43

−31.5

DREX

W 80-50

−13.5

MONM

W 78-73

+5.5

HOU

L 74-78

+11.5

L 60-71

−13.5

ISU

L 64-95

+13.5

TENN

W 62-60

−25.5

JOES

W 71-63

−12.5

HOF

L 69-70

−0.5

MERC

W 76-62

+6.5

W 91-83

+33.5

STO

W 77-48

−15.5

CLEM

L 61-64

−15.5

W 82-72

+7.5

PITT

W 83-72

+12.5

FSU

W 94-86

+19.5

L 73-81

+12.5

L 74-76

−2.5

MIA

L 76-85

+11.5

NCSU

L 68-88

+4.5

W 86-72

+10.5

UNC

L 77-87

+5.5

UVA

L 59-72

−16.5

CAL

W 107-100

+58.5

SMU

W 79-78

−0.5

DUKE

L 64-101

+20.5

UNC

L 64-77

−13.5

WAKE

L 83-88

+18.5

LOU

L 62-77

−20.5

PITT

L 69-71

−1.5

SMU

L 69-86

+0.5

over 17under 15avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Syracuse has the better starters

Position by position: Lafayette 0, Syracuse 4, even 1

LafayetteBetterSyracuse

G P. D'Arcy TR1.1 pts · 0.6 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked

No call

G G. Doty TR18 pts · 6.9 reb · 2.2 ast Score 94

F S. Jackson10.2 pts · 5 reb · 1.6 ast Score 67

SYRSmall

G A. Tobiason TR15.3 pts · 3.7 reb · 2 ast Score 82

F K. Murdock2.7 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.4 ast Score 16

SYRBig

G G. Dual TR8.3 pts · 2.8 reb · 4.1 ast Score 66

F L. Bevilacqua2.7 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.5 ast Score 13

SYRBig

F F. Folefac TR11.3 pts · 5.3 reb · 2.2 ast Score 73

C M. Bednostin1.5 pts · 1.9 reb · 0.7 ast Score 8

SYRBig

C L. Wilson TR10.4 pts · 8.4 reb · 0.6 ast Score 75

LafayetteBetterSyracuse

LAF offense330th of 366 · -10.8

SYRBig

SYR defense67th of 366 · +0.9

LAF defense245th of 366 · -6.5

SYRBig

SYR offense60th of 366 · +2.7

Backcourt-0.7 · 1 player

SYRBig

Backcourt+6.3 · 3 players

Frontcourt-2.4 · 4 players

SYRBig

Frontcourt+3.6 · 2 players

Bench-1.4 · 4 players

SYRBig

Bench+2.4 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestLAF betterSYR betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Lafayette

Guards

P. D'Arcy7 min · TRF. Fayemi6 minA. Wallace4 minB. CurrieNewC. KeslerNewS. HentonNew

Forwards

S. Jackson22 minK. Murdock10 minL. Bevilacqua9 minM. Rasul4 minL. Azzinaro2 minJ. GillNew

Centers

M. Bednostin10 min

Syracuse

Guards

G. Doty37 min · TRA. Tobiason36 min · TRG. Dual27 min · TRK. Anthony19 minC. Russell2 minN. Lobdell1 min

Forwards

F. Folefac28 min · TRT. Goodrick23 min · TRS. White15 minM. MoranoNew

Centers

L. Wilson29 min · TRI. MartinezNewA. SibyNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

LAF69.1 #297

SYR75.0 #163

Points per possession

LAF1.03 #289

SYR1.08 #174

Pace (possessions)

LAF67.2 #274

SYR69.1 #173

Shooting

Effective FG%

LAF49.3 #278

SYR52.6 #122

3-point %

LAF32.1 #273

SYR32.9 #239

3-point attempt rate

LAF39.8 #173

SYR37.1 #226

Free throw rate

LAF32.5 #249

SYR35.1 #171

Possessions

Turnover rate

LAF15.3 #89

SYR15.9 #134

Offensive rebound rate

LAF25.8 #326

SYR29.2 #228

Assists per game

LAF13.6 #175

SYR12.8 #225

Defense

Points allowed

LAF75.4 #200

SYR74.3 #163

Points allowed per possession

LAF1.12 #275

SYR1.07 #144

Opponent effective FG%

LAF53.6 #286

SYR50.3 #116

Opponent 3-point %

LAF36.0 #298

SYR34.1 #186

Turnovers forced

LAF15.1 #273

SYR17.4 #125

Defensive rebound rate

LAF71.4 #88

SYR66.4 #310

Steals per game

LAF5.3 #316

SYR6.2 #214

Blocks per game

LAF2.3 #324

SYR5.9 #4

LAF		SYR
Scoring
69.1 #297	Points per game	75.0 #163
1.03 #289	Points per possession	1.08 #174
67.2 #274	Pace (possessions)	69.1 #173
Shooting
49.3 #278	Effective FG%	52.6 #122
32.1 #273	3-point %	32.9 #239
39.8 #173	3-point attempt rate	37.1 #226
32.5 #249	Free throw rate	35.1 #171
Possessions
15.3 #89	Turnover rate	15.9 #134
25.8 #326	Offensive rebound rate	29.2 #228
13.6 #175	Assists per game	12.8 #225
Defense
75.4 #200	Points allowed	74.3 #163
1.12 #275	Points allowed per possession	1.07 #144
53.6 #286	Opponent effective FG%	50.3 #116
36.0 #298	Opponent 3-point %	34.1 #186
15.1 #273	Turnovers forced	17.4 #125
71.4 #88	Defensive rebound rate	66.4 #310
5.3 #316	Steals per game	6.2 #214
2.3 #324	Blocks per game	5.9 #4

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Lafayette

10-21 in 2025-26 overall · 8-11 in conference · Patriot League

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Holy Cross77–82
Wvs Army83–77
W@ Colgate70–69
Lvs American61–75
W@ Holy Cross86–83

A week or more of rest.

Syracuse

15-17 in 2025-26 overall · 6-13 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs SMU69–86
Lvs Pitt69–71
L@ Louisville62–77
L@ Wake Forest83–88
Lvs North Carolina64–77

A week or more of rest.

Lafayette Leopards at Syracuse Orange

What could decide it: SYR has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Lafayette

Syracuse

Syracuse has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Lafayette

Syracuse