Northern Illinois Huskies at Bowling Green Falcons: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 21, 2:00 PM ETStroh Center · at Bowling Green

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: N Illinois and Bowling Green
NIU	This season	BGSU
1-0	Record	0-0
0-1	ATS	0-0
1-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects BGSU 81–69 · win probability BGSU 86%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 150.6

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: BGSU has more of the edges

NIU 0, BGSU 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

BGSUBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: NIU 47.6 and allows 55.6; BGSU 51.8 and allows 51.0

BGSUBig

Three-pointers

NIU hits 30.9% and allows 36.3%; BGSU hits 34.4% and allows 33.5%. Threes are 45.0% and 34.2% of their shots

BGSUBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: NIU 21.7%, BGSU 16.4%. Forced: NIU 16.3%, BGSU 18.5%

BGSUBig

BGSU offense vs NIU defense

Offense 172nd of 366 against a defense 327th, on the model’s ratings

BGSUSmall

NIU offense vs BGSU defense

Offense 327th of 366 against a defense 231st, on the model’s ratings

BGSUSmall

Home court

BGSU at home. This season: BGSU 0-0 at home, NIU 0-0 away

Context

Tempo

About 70 possessions: NIU plays 69.0 a game (181st fastest), BGSU 70.5 (96th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: NIU 30.3%, BGSU 28.7%. Defensive: NIU 70.0%, BGSU 73.1%

Context

Schedule so far

NIU has played the 167th-hardest schedule, BGSU the 192nd. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: NIU 30%, BGSU 24%. Transfers in: NIU 6, BGSU 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: NIU 38.3, BGSU 37.0. Allowed: NIU 38.3, BGSU 37.2

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	BGSU -12.3	—
Total	—	150.6	—
Projected score	—	NIU 69.1 · BGSU 81.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	BGSU -7.2	—
1H total	70.4	—
1H projected score	NIU 31.6 · BGSU 38.8	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NIU LWLLL	13-15	46%	10-7	—
BGSU LLWWW	14-15	48%	5-9	—

Venue/role: NIU away; BGSU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
NIU UUUOU	8-20	29%	7-21
BGSU OOUOO	11-18	38%	15-14

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NIU	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	2-8 20%
BGSU	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

N Illinois

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 25	@ SIUE	No recent meeting
Nov 28	@ EIU	L59–72LU
Dec 3	@ GB	No recent meeting

Bowling Green

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 24	vs GWEB	No recent meeting
Nov 27	@ IU	No recent meeting
Dec 2	@ KENT	L71–78LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 of 7 since 2021-22

NIU 1–6 BGSUBGSU leads · 7 games since 2021-22 · BGSU has won the last 4 meetings · NIU 1-6 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 11, 2025-26	BGSU 68 @ NIU 52	NIU +7.5	BGSU W
Mar 4, 2024-25	BGSU 71 @ NIU 58	NIU +4.5	BGSU W
Feb 4, 2024-25	NIU 77 @ BGSU 84	BGSU -6.5	BGSU W
Jan 13, 2023-24	BGSU 83 @ NIU 72	NIU +1.5	BGSU W
Feb 4, 2022-23	NIU 86 @ BGSU 78	BGSU -5.5	NIU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

N Illinois

28 games played

Straight up

7-21

25% wins

Against the spread

13-15

46% covers · avg −3.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

8-20

29% overs · avg −4.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

7-2125%

W L L L W L L L L W L L L L W L L W L W L L W L L L L L

5 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

13-1546%

W W L W W L L L W L L W L L W W W W L W L L W L W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

8-2029%

O O U U U U O U O U U U U U U O U O U O U U U U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsULM	W 102-82	-7.5	W +12.5	147.5	O 184
Nov 7	@WIS	L 72-97	+28.5	W +3.5	157.5	O 169
Nov 10	@GCU	L 59-88	+22.5	L −6.5	163.5	U 147
Nov 18	@UNI	L 57-70	+19.5	W +6.5	146.5	U 127
Nov 21	@LUC	W 76-59	+13.5	W +30.5	148.5	U 135
Nov 25	@APSU	L 59-77	+6.5	L −11.5	147.5	U 136
Dec 2	vsLIN	L 64-99	-3.5	L −38.5	147.5	O 163
Dec 6	@BRAD	L 55-84	+18.5	L −10.5	146.5	U 139
Dec 13	@ELON	L 79-85	+11.5	W +5.5	156.5	O 164
Dec 20	vsCMU	W 74-73	-2.5	L −1.5	149.5	U 147
Dec 31	vsBUF	L 67-81	+6.5	L −7.5	152.5	U 148
Jan 3	@KENT	L 73-77	+16.5	W +12.5	157.5	U 150
Jan 6	vsTOL	L 61-75	+7.5	L −6.5	161.5	U 136
Jan 13	@EMU	L 59-77	+7.5	L −10.5	141.5	U 136
Jan 17	vsMASS	W 70-68	+8.5	W +10.5	157.5	U 138
Jan 20	@OHIO	L 77-80	+11.5	W +8.5	154.5	O 157
Jan 24	@BALL	L 53-58	+5.5	W +0.5	141.5	U 111
Jan 27	vsWMU	W 85-65	-1.5	W +18.5	146.5	O 150
Jan 31	@M-OH	L 61-85	+16.5	L −7.5	158.5	U 146
Feb 7	@GAST	W 75-74	+4.5	W +5.5	143.5	O 149
Feb 11	vsBGSU	L 52-68	+7.5	L −8.5	144.5	U 120
Feb 14	@CMU	L 46-88	+4.5	L −37.5	146.5	U 134
Feb 17	@BUF	W 72-70	+9.5	W +11.5	145.5	U 142
Feb 21	vsOHIO	L 66-74	+6.5	L −1.5	148.5	U 140
Feb 24	@TOL	L 69-79	+12.5	W +2.5	150.5	U 148
Feb 28	vsBALL	L 43-79	-1.5	L −37.5	133.5	U 122
Mar 3	vsKENT	L 76-102	+10.5	L −15.5	148.5	O 178
Mar 6	@AKR	L 55-94	+23.5	L −15.5	155.5	U 149

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ULM

W 102-82

+12.5

WIS

L 72-97

+3.5

GCU

L 59-88

−6.5

UNI

L 57-70

+6.5

LUC

W 76-59

+30.5

APSU

L 59-77

−11.5

LIN

L 64-99

−38.5

BRAD

L 55-84

−10.5

ELON

L 79-85

+5.5

CMU

W 74-73

−1.5

BUF

L 67-81

−7.5

KENT

L 73-77

+12.5

TOL

L 61-75

−6.5

EMU

L 59-77

−10.5

MASS

W 70-68

+10.5

OHIO

L 77-80

+8.5

BALL

L 53-58

+0.5

WMU

W 85-65

+18.5

M-OH

L 61-85

−7.5

GAST

W 75-74

+5.5

BGSU

L 52-68

−8.5

CMU

L 46-88

−37.5

BUF

W 72-70

+11.5

OHIO

L 66-74

−1.5

TOL

L 69-79

+2.5

BALL

L 43-79

−37.5

KENT

L 76-102

−15.5

AKR

L 55-94

−15.5

covered 13didn’t cover 15avg −3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ULM

W 102-82

+36.5

WIS

L 72-97

+11.5

GCU

L 59-88

−16.5

UNI

L 57-70

−19.5

LUC

W 76-59

−13.5

APSU

L 59-77

−11.5

LIN

L 64-99

+15.5

BRAD

L 55-84

−7.5

ELON

L 79-85

+7.5

CMU

W 74-73

−2.5

BUF

L 67-81

−4.5

KENT

L 73-77

−7.5

TOL

L 61-75

−25.5

EMU

L 59-77

−5.5

MASS

W 70-68

−19.5

OHIO

L 77-80

+2.5

BALL

L 53-58

−30.5

WMU

W 85-65

+3.5

M-OH

L 61-85

−12.5

GAST

W 75-74

+5.5

BGSU

L 52-68

−24.5

CMU

L 46-88

−12.5

BUF

W 72-70

−3.5

OHIO

L 66-74

−8.5

TOL

L 69-79

−2.5

BALL

L 43-79

−11.5

KENT

L 76-102

+29.5

AKR

L 55-94

−6.5

over 8under 20avg −4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Bowling Green

29 games played

Straight up

15-14

52% wins

Against the spread

14-15

48% covers · avg −0.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

11-18

38% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

15-1452%

W W L L W W W L W W L W L L W W L L L W L W W L L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

14-1548%

W W W L L W W L L W L L W L L W L L L W L W W L L L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

11-1838%

U U O U U U U O U U O O O U O U U O U U U U U U O O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsTXST	W 83-48	-5.5	W +29.5	146.5	U 131
Nov 9	vsLEM	W 83-60	-11.5	W +11.5	154.5	U 143
Nov 15	@DAV	L 87-91	+4.5	W +0.5	144.5	O 178
Nov 19	vsW&M	L 74-82	-8.5	L −16.5	167.5	U 156
Nov 24	vsBUCK	W 71-66	-10.5	L −5.5	144.5	U 137
Nov 26	vsVMI	W 81-48	-11.5	W +21.5	148.5	U 129
Dec 1	@KSU	W 82-66	+12.5	W +28.5	159.5	U 148
Dec 6	vsUVU	L 71-82	+1.5	L −9.5	144.5	O 153
Dec 16	vsCHST	W 76-55	-21.5	L −0.5	148.5	U 131
Dec 20	@OHIO	W 68-58	-1.5	W +8.5	153.5	U 126
Dec 30	vsM-OH	L 83-93	-6.5	L −16.5	150.5	O 176
Jan 3	@MASS	W 101-100	-1.5	L −0.5	152.5	O 201
Jan 6	@KENT	L 93-96	+3.5	W +0.5	155.5	O 189
Jan 9	vsAKR	L 67-77	+4.5	L −5.5	163.5	U 144
Jan 17	vsEMU	W 85-79	-11.5	L −5.5	141.5	O 164
Jan 20	@WMU	W 72-54	-6.5	W +11.5	152.5	U 126
Jan 24	@TOL	L 72-73	-1.5	L −2.5	155.5	U 145
Jan 27	vsBUF	L 78-89	-7.5	L −18.5	150.5	O 167
Jan 31	@CMU	L 59-62	-8.5	L −11.5	149.5	U 121
Feb 3	vsBALL	W 77-52	-11.5	W +13.5	137.5	U 129
Feb 7	@ARST	L 54-91	+2.5	L −34.5	154.5	U 145
Feb 11	@NIU	W 68-52	-7.5	W +8.5	144.5	U 120
Feb 14	vsTOL	W 80-70	-3.5	W +6.5	150.5	U 150
Feb 17	vsKENT	L 71-78	-1.5	L −8.5	151.5	U 149
Feb 20	@M-OH	L 77-91	+8.5	L −5.5	154.5	O 168
Feb 24	vsWMU	L 79-88	-11.5	L −20.5	149.5	O 167
Feb 28	vsMASS	W 81-62	-3.5	W +15.5	150.5	U 143
Mar 6	@EMU	W 77-69	-5.5	W +2.5	142.5	O 146
Mar 12	vsTOL	L 76-77	+1.5	W +0.5	150.5	O 153

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TXST

W 83-48

+29.5

LEM

W 83-60

+11.5

DAV

L 87-91

+0.5

W&M

L 74-82

−16.5

BUCK

W 71-66

−5.5

VMI

W 81-48

+21.5

KSU

W 82-66

+28.5

UVU

L 71-82

−9.5

CHST

W 76-55

−0.5

OHIO

W 68-58

+8.5

M-OH

L 83-93

−16.5

MASS

W 101-100

−0.5

KENT

L 93-96

+0.5

AKR

L 67-77

−5.5

EMU

W 85-79

−5.5

WMU

W 72-54

+11.5

TOL

L 72-73

−2.5

BUF

L 78-89

−18.5

CMU

L 59-62

−11.5

BALL

W 77-52

+13.5

ARST

L 54-91

−34.5

NIU

W 68-52

+8.5

TOL

W 80-70

+6.5

KENT

L 71-78

−8.5

M-OH

L 77-91

−5.5

WMU

L 79-88

−20.5

MASS

W 81-62

+15.5

EMU

W 77-69

+2.5

TOL

L 76-77

+0.5

covered 14didn’t cover 15avg −0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TXST

W 83-48

−15.5

LEM

W 83-60

−11.5

DAV

L 87-91

+33.5

W&M

L 74-82

−11.5

BUCK

W 71-66

−7.5

VMI

W 81-48

−19.5

KSU

W 82-66

−11.5

UVU

L 71-82

+8.5

CHST

W 76-55

−17.5

OHIO

W 68-58

−27.5

M-OH

L 83-93

+25.5

MASS

W 101-100

+48.5

KENT

L 93-96

+33.5

AKR

L 67-77

−19.5

EMU

W 85-79

+22.5

WMU

W 72-54

−26.5

TOL

L 72-73

−10.5

BUF

L 78-89

+16.5

CMU

L 59-62

−28.5

BALL

W 77-52

−8.5

ARST

L 54-91

−9.5

NIU

W 68-52

−24.5

TOL

W 80-70

−0.5

KENT

L 71-78

−2.5

M-OH

L 77-91

+13.5

WMU

L 79-88

+17.5

MASS

W 81-62

−7.5

EMU

W 77-69

+3.5

TOL

L 76-77

+2.5

over 11under 18avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Bowling Green has the better starters

Position by position: N Illinois 0, Bowling Green 1, even 4

N IllinoisBetterBowling Green

G M. Weisbrod TR11 pts · 2 reb · 8 ast Score 27

BGSUBig

G J. Johnson TR13.7 pts · 2.9 reb · 3.5 ast Score 80

G T. Polite15 pts · 5 reb · 1 ast Score 45

Even

G J. Cranford TR11.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 1.6 ast Score 35

G U. Buntyn TR12.5 pts · 2.8 reb · 3.3 ast Score 52

Even

G J. Shackelford11.1 pts · 3.6 reb · 1 ast Score 59

G D. Douglas TR12 pts · 4 reb · 0 ast Score 9

No call

F A. Goins3.1 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked

F T. Samuels7 pts · 8.4 reb · 1.2 ast Score 33

No call

F C. Essandoko TR2 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked

N IllinoisBetterBowling Green

NIU offense327th of 366 · -10.6

BGSUSmall

BGSU defense231st of 366 · -6.1

NIU defense327th of 366 · -8.5

BGSUBig

BGSU offense172nd of 366 · -5.3

Backcourt-5.2 · 4 players

BGSUBig

Backcourt-0.2 · 3 players

Frontcourt-1.4 · 1 player

Even

Frontcourt-1.3 · 2 players

Bench-3.5 · 3 players

BGSUSmall

Bench-1.4 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestNIU betterBGSU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

N Illinois

Guards

M. Weisbrod31 min · TRT. Polite31 minU. Buntyn31 min · TRD. Douglas30 min · TRN. Carter-SmithNewC. HardrickNew

Forwards

T. Samuels30 minM. Ivanauskas20 min · TRJ. Daugherty10 min · TRA. McBirney-Griffin10 min · TRB. GrossNew

Bowling Green

Guards

J. Johnson28 min · TRJ. Cranford26 min · TRJ. Shackelford24 minM. Leach8 minT. Beckford7 min · TRC. Dedivanaj2 min

Forwards

A. Goins8 minC. Essandoko8 min · TRC. Karel5 minP. Squire3 minL. AtenyNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

NIU66.3 #341

BGSU76.8 #124

Points per possession

NIU0.96 #354

BGSU1.08 #177

Pace (possessions)

NIU69.0 #181

BGSU70.5 #96

Shooting

Effective FG%

NIU47.6 #324

BGSU51.8 #153

3-point %

NIU30.9 #323

BGSU34.4 #148

3-point attempt rate

NIU45.0 #66

BGSU34.2 #289

Free throw rate

NIU38.3 #95

BGSU37.0 #129

Possessions

Turnover rate

NIU21.7 #360

BGSU16.4 #164

Offensive rebound rate

NIU30.3 #187

BGSU28.7 #244

Assists per game

NIU11.6 #308

BGSU13.1 #203

Defense

Points allowed

NIU78.9 #291

BGSU72.7 #127

Points allowed per possession

NIU1.15 #323

BGSU1.04 #71

Opponent effective FG%

NIU55.6 #342

BGSU51.0 #163

Opponent 3-point %

NIU36.3 #315

BGSU33.5 #161

Turnovers forced

NIU16.3 #199

BGSU18.5 #73

Defensive rebound rate

NIU70.0 #161

BGSU73.1 #31

Steals per game

NIU5.6 #288

BGSU8.2 #30

Blocks per game

NIU1.9 #352

BGSU3.5 #138

NIU		BGSU
Scoring
66.3 #341	Points per game	76.8 #124
0.96 #354	Points per possession	1.08 #177
69.0 #181	Pace (possessions)	70.5 #96
Shooting
47.6 #324	Effective FG%	51.8 #153
30.9 #323	3-point %	34.4 #148
45.0 #66	3-point attempt rate	34.2 #289
38.3 #95	Free throw rate	37.0 #129
Possessions
21.7 #360	Turnover rate	16.4 #164
30.3 #187	Offensive rebound rate	28.7 #244
11.6 #308	Assists per game	13.1 #203
Defense
78.9 #291	Points allowed	72.7 #127
1.15 #323	Points allowed per possession	1.04 #71
55.6 #342	Opponent effective FG%	51.0 #163
36.3 #315	Opponent 3-point %	33.5 #161
16.3 #199	Turnovers forced	18.5 #73
70.0 #161	Defensive rebound rate	73.1 #31
5.6 #288	Steals per game	8.2 #30
1.9 #352	Blocks per game	3.5 #138

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

N Illinois

7-21 in 2025-26 overall · 4-14 in conference · Horizon League

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Akron55–94
Lvs Kent State76–102
Lvs Ball State43–79
L@ Toledo69–79
Lvs Ohio66–74

A week or more of rest.

Bowling Green

15-14 in 2025-26 overall · 9-10 in conference · Mid-American Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Toledo76–77
W@ E Michigan77–69
Wvs UMass81–62
Lvs W Michigan79–88
L@ Miami OH77–91

A week or more of rest.

Northern Illinois Huskies at Bowling Green Falcons

What could decide it: BGSU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

N Illinois

Bowling Green

Bowling Green has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

N Illinois

Bowling Green