1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Nov 24
  3. GWEB @ BGSU
NCAAB · Tue, Nov 24

Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs at Bowling Green Falcons

Stroh Center · at Bowling Green
#348GWEBGardner-Webb
@
#200BGSUBowling Green
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
GWEBThis seasonBGSU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects BGSU 83–68 · win probability BGSU 91%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 150.8
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: BGSU has more of the edges

GWEB 0, BGSU 8 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
BGSUBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: GWEB 23.2%, BGSU 28.7%. Defensive: GWEB 63.4%, BGSU 73.1%
BGSUBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: GWEB 19.8%, BGSU 16.4%. Forced: GWEB 15.3%, BGSU 18.5%
BGSUBig
BGSU offense vs GWEB defense
Offense 172nd of 366 against a defense 357th, on the model’s ratings
BGSUBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: GWEB 47.8 and allows 57.0; BGSU 51.8 and allows 51.0
BGSUBig
Three-pointers
GWEB hits 31.0% and allows 36.0%; BGSU hits 34.4% and allows 33.5%. Threes are 39.8% and 34.2% of their shots
BGSUSmall
GWEB offense vs BGSU defense
Offense 318th of 366 against a defense 231st, on the model’s ratings
BGSUSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: GWEB 30.3, BGSU 37.0. Allowed: GWEB 35.3, BGSU 37.2
BGSUSmall
Home court
BGSU at home. This season: BGSU 0-0 at home, GWEB 0-0 away
Context
Schedule so far
GWEB has played the 154th-hardest schedule, BGSU the 192nd. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: GWEB 35%, BGSU 24%. Transfers in: GWEB 3, BGSU 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Tempo
About 71 possessions: GWEB plays 70.8 a game (84th fastest), BGSU 70.5 (96th). Faster games mean more points
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—BGSU -15.1—
Total—150.8—
Projected score—GWEB 67.9 · BGSU 83

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadBGSU -8.8—
1H total70.5—
1H projected scoreGWEB 30.8 · BGSU 39.7—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Bowling Green has the better starters

Position by position: Gardner-Webb 0, Bowling Green 3, even 2
Gardner-WebbBetterBowling Green
G J. Hudson10.6 pts · 3.8 reb · 1.5 ast Score 62
BGSUSmall
G J. Johnson TR13.7 pts · 2.9 reb · 3.5 ast Score 80
G A. Talbert6.7 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.3 ast Score 10
BGSUSmall
G J. Cranford TR11.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 1.6 ast Score 35
G J. Ferere6.5 pts · 3 reb · 0.7 ast Score 32
BGSUSmall
G J. Shackelford11.1 pts · 3.6 reb · 1 ast Score 59
F M. Pocknett TR3.7 pts · 4 reb · 0.3 ast Score 14
No call
F A. Goins3.1 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked
C S. Nosakhare TR0.8 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
No call
F C. Essandoko TR2 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
Gardner-WebbBetterBowling Green
GWEB offense318th of 366 · -10.4
BGSUSmall
BGSU defense231st of 366 · -6.1
GWEB defense357th of 366 · -10.2
BGSUBig
BGSU offense172nd of 366 · -5.3
Backcourt-4.1 · 3 players
BGSUBig
Backcourt-0.2 · 3 players
Frontcourt-2.0 · 2 players
Even
Frontcourt-1.3 · 2 players
Bench-0.9 · 1 player
Even
Bench-1.4 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestGWEB betterBGSU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Gardner-Webb
Guards
J. Hudson27 minA. Talbert25 minJ. Ferere18 minS. BrownNewD. DanielNewB. LutherNew
Forwards
M. Pocknett14 min · TRJ. Skipper8 min · TRC. OkparaNew
Centers
S. Nosakhare9 min · TRG. TropnasNewB. RutsinduraNew
Bowling Green
Guards
J. Johnson28 min · TRJ. Cranford26 min · TRJ. Shackelford24 minM. Leach8 minT. Beckford7 min · TRC. Dedivanaj2 min
Forwards
A. Goins8 minC. Essandoko8 min · TRC. Karel5 minP. Squire3 minL. AtenyNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
GWEBBGSU
Scoring
66.2 #343Points per game76.8 #124
0.94 #360Points per possession1.08 #177
70.8 #84Pace (possessions)70.5 #96
Shooting
47.8 #317Effective FG%51.8 #153
31.0 #3203-point %34.4 #148
39.8 #1743-point attempt rate34.2 #289
30.3 #302Free throw rate37.0 #129
Possessions
19.8 #347Turnover rate16.4 #164
23.2 #350Offensive rebound rate28.7 #244
9.7 #362Assists per game13.1 #203
Defense
86.7 #362Points allowed72.7 #127
1.22 #361Points allowed per possession1.04 #71
57.0 #356Opponent effective FG%51.0 #163
36.0 #300Opponent 3-point %33.5 #161
15.3 #265Turnovers forced18.5 #73
63.4 #355Defensive rebound rate73.1 #31
6.1 #224Steals per game8.2 #30
2.4 #309Blocks per game3.5 #138
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Gardner-Webb

2-28 in 2025-26 overall · 2-16 in conference · Big South Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs High Point59–81
  • Wvs SC Upstate65–64
  • L@ SC Upstate61–71
  • Lvs UNC Asheville71–77
  • L@ Radford70–82

A week or more of rest.

Bowling Green

15-14 in 2025-26 overall · 9-10 in conference · Mid-American Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Toledo76–77
  • W@ E Michigan77–69
  • Wvs UMass81–62
  • Lvs W Michigan79–88
  • L@ Miami OH77–91

A week or more of rest.