St. Thomas Tommies at Milwaukee Panthers: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 21, 3:00 PM ETUW-Milwaukee Panther Arena · at Milwaukee

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: St Thomas and Milwaukee
STMN	This season	MILW
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MILW 76–76 · win probability MILW 50%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 151.9

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: STMN has more of the edges

STMN 5, MILW 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

STMNBig

Three-pointers

STMN hits 36.0% and allows 31.7%; MILW hits 32.3% and allows 36.5%. Threes are 46.3% and 38.1% of their shots

STMNBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: STMN 58.9 and allows 50.7; MILW 49.9 and allows 55.5

Context

Schedule so far

STMN has played the 341st-hardest schedule, MILW the 191st. A record against a soft schedule means less

STMNSmall

STMN offense vs MILW defense

Offense 192nd of 366 against a defense 297th, on the model’s ratings

MILWSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: STMN 22.6%, MILW 33.0%. Defensive: STMN 73.4%, MILW 70.8%

STMNSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: STMN 33.8, MILW 32.1. Allowed: STMN 30.7, MILW 35.9

STMNSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: STMN 14.4%, MILW 15.3%. Forced: STMN 17.0%, MILW 15.8%

MILWSmall

Home court

MILW at home. This season: MILW 0-0 at home, STMN 0-0 away

Even

MILW offense vs STMN defense

Offense 180th of 366 against a defense 223rd, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: STMN plays 69.7 a game (137th fastest), MILW 69.1 (174th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: STMN 35%, MILW 40%. Transfers in: STMN 3, MILW 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	PK	—
Total	—	151.9	—
Projected score	—	STMN 75.9 · MILW 75.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	STMN -0.1	—
1H total	71.0	—
1H projected score	STMN 35.6 · MILW 35.4	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
STMN WWWLL	15-16	48%	8-7	—
MILW WLLWL	11-20	35%	6-8	—

Venue/role: STMN away; MILW home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
STMN UUUUU	16-15	52%	21-10
MILW OOUUU	14-17	45%	11-20

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
STMN	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%
MILW	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

St Thomas

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 25	@ UNCW	No recent meeting
Nov 27	vs LIB	No recent meeting
Nov 28	vs PRIN	No recent meeting

Milwaukee

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 24	@ FLA	L45–81LU
Nov 29	@ ORST	No recent meeting
Dec 3	vs WRST	L69–76LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

STMN 2–1 MILWSTMN leads · 3 games since 2021-22 · STMN 1-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 24, 2024-25	STMN 65 @ MILW 69	MILW -2.5	MILW W
Dec 6, 2023-24	MILW 71 @ STMN 75	STMN -6.5	MILW W
Nov 23, 2022-23	STMN 76 @ MILW 72	MILW +1.5	STMN W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

St Thomas

31 games played

Straight up

21-10

68% wins

Against the spread

15-16

48% covers · avg +0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-15

52% overs · avg −0.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

21-1068%

L W L W W W L W L W W W W W W W L W W L W W W L W L W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

15-1648%

L L L W W L L W L W W L L L W W L L W L W W W L W L W W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

16-1552%

O O U U O U O U O U U O O O O O U U O O O U O O O U U U U U U

6 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@SMC	L 58-84	+13.5	L −12.5	141.5	O 142
Nov 8	vsARMY	W 83-76	-18.5	L −11.5	151.5	O 159
Nov 10	@WSU	L 71-81	+2.5	L −7.5	157.5	U 152
Nov 13	vsGB	W 80-61	-13.5	W +5.5	150.5	U 141
Nov 15	@SEMO	W 84-72	-2.5	W +9.5	152.5	O 156
Nov 21	vsUNCO	W 73-72	-4.5	L −3.5	157.5	U 145
Nov 22	vsCSUF	L 80-88	-11.5	L −19.5	162.5	O 168
Nov 23	@PORT	W 76-66	-5.5	W +4.5	155.5	U 142
Dec 3	@MTST	L 74-82	+2.5	L −5.5	147.5	O 156
Dec 7	vsWEB	W 88-65	-7.5	W +15.5	154.5	U 153
Dec 13	@UNCA	W 80-59	-3.5	W +17.5	148.5	U 139
Dec 20	vsUCR	W 92-78	-14.5	L −0.5	152.5	O 170
Jan 4	vsDEN	W 92-88	-11.5	L −7.5	163.5	O 180
Jan 7	vsSDAK	W 99-86	-14.5	L −1.5	162.5	O 185
Jan 10	@ORU	W 82-71	-8.5	W +2.5	152.5	O 153
Jan 15	@UND	W 91-80	-10.5	W +0.5	151.5	O 171
Jan 17	@NDSU	L 65-68	+2.5	L −0.5	151.5	U 133
Jan 22	vsSDST	W 74-69	-6.5	L −1.5	155.5	U 143
Jan 24	@SDAK	W 90-78	-10.5	W +1.5	161.5	O 168
Jan 29	vsUND	L 80-81	-11.5	L −12.5	152.5	O 161
Feb 1	vsKC	W 99-64	-17.5	W +17.5	151.5	O 163
Feb 4	@SDST	W 77-62	+1.5	W +16.5	157.5	U 139
Feb 7	vsORU	W 92-75	-15.5	W +1.5	151.5	O 167
Feb 12	@OMA	L 94-98	-4.5	L −8.5	156.5	O 192
Feb 14	@KC	W 104-64	-12.5	W +27.5	154.5	O 168
Feb 21	@DEN	L 80-82	-3.5	L −5.5	168.5	U 162
Feb 26	vsNDSU	W 84-62	-3.5	W +18.5	155.5	U 146
Feb 28	vsOMA	W 68-53	-11.5	W +3.5	158.5	U 121
Mar 5	vsSDST	W 80-67	-4.5	W +8.5	150.5	U 147
Mar 7	vsUND	L 66-67	-11.5	L −12.5	153.5	U 133
Mar 17	@SEA	L 52-67	+2.5	L −12.5	145.5	U 119

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SMC

L 58-84

−12.5

ARMY

W 83-76

−11.5

WSU

L 71-81

−7.5

W 80-61

+5.5

SEMO

W 84-72

+9.5

UNCO

W 73-72

−3.5

CSUF

L 80-88

−19.5

PORT

W 76-66

+4.5

MTST

L 74-82

−5.5

WEB

W 88-65

+15.5

UNCA

W 80-59

+17.5

UCR

W 92-78

−0.5

DEN

W 92-88

−7.5

SDAK

W 99-86

−1.5

ORU

W 82-71

+2.5

UND

W 91-80

+0.5

NDSU

L 65-68

−0.5

SDST

W 74-69

−1.5

SDAK

W 90-78

+1.5

UND

L 80-81

−12.5

W 99-64

+17.5

SDST

W 77-62

+16.5

ORU

W 92-75

+1.5

OMA

L 94-98

−8.5

W 104-64

+27.5

DEN

L 80-82

−5.5

NDSU

W 84-62

+18.5

OMA

W 68-53

+3.5

SDST

W 80-67

+8.5

UND

L 66-67

−12.5

SEA

L 52-67

−12.5

covered 15didn’t cover 16avg +0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SMC

L 58-84

+0.5

ARMY

W 83-76

+7.5

WSU

L 71-81

−5.5

W 80-61

−9.5

SEMO

W 84-72

+3.5

UNCO

W 73-72

−12.5

CSUF

L 80-88

+5.5

PORT

W 76-66

−13.5

MTST

L 74-82

+8.5

WEB

W 88-65

−1.5

UNCA

W 80-59

−9.5

UCR

W 92-78

+17.5

DEN

W 92-88

+16.5

SDAK

W 99-86

+22.5

ORU

W 82-71

+0.5

UND

W 91-80

+19.5

NDSU

L 65-68

−18.5

SDST

W 74-69

−12.5

SDAK

W 90-78

+6.5

UND

L 80-81

+8.5

W 99-64

+11.5

SDST

W 77-62

−18.5

ORU

W 92-75

+15.5

OMA

L 94-98

+35.5

W 104-64

+13.5

DEN

L 80-82

−6.5

NDSU

W 84-62

−9.5

OMA

W 68-53

−37.5

SDST

W 80-67

−3.5

UND

L 66-67

−20.5

SEA

L 52-67

−26.5

over 16under 15avg −0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Milwaukee

31 games played

Straight up

11-20

35% wins

Against the spread

11-20

35% covers · avg −3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-17

45% overs · avg −1 pts vs the total

Straight up

11-2035%

W L W L L L L W L W W W L L L L W L L L W L L L L W W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

11-2035%

L L W L W L L L L W W W L L L L W L L L W L L L W W W L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

14-1745%

O O O O U U O U U O U U U U O U O U O O U U O U U O O O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsHAMP	W 90-86	-5.5	L −1.5	146.5	O 176
Nov 8	@WOF	L 76-86	-3.5	L −13.5	150.5	O 162
Nov 10	vsLR	W 92-72	-3.5	W +16.5	156.5	O 164
Nov 12	@IU	L 70-101	+24.5	L −6.5	165.5	O 171
Nov 14	@TTU	L 63-80	+27.5	W +10.5	165.5	U 143
Nov 22	@WICH	L 58-75	+10.5	L −6.5	158.5	U 133
Nov 29	@AKR	L 81-105	+12.5	L −11.5	166.5	O 186
Dec 6	vsRMU	W 74-72	-4.5	L −2.5	153.5	U 146
Dec 14	vsINST	L 68-70	-2.5	L −4.5	159.5	U 138
Dec 19	vsSDST	W 88-87	+1.5	W +2.5	151.5	O 175
Dec 21	@CLE	W 81-71	-6.5	W +3.5	160.5	U 152
Dec 29	vsPFW	W 77-55	-3.5	W +18.5	156.5	U 132
Dec 30	@WIS	L 60-80	+19.5	L −0.5	157.5	U 140
Jan 1	@WRST	L 70-76	+3.5	L −2.5	147.5	U 146
Jan 5	@GB	L 76-79	-3.5	L −6.5	144.5	O 155
Jan 9	vsNKU	L 67-85	-1.5	L −19.5	157.5	U 152
Jan 11	vsIUIN	W 95-83	-8.5	W +3.5	165.5	O 178
Jan 15	vsOAK	L 60-73	+2.5	L −10.5	166.5	U 133
Jan 18	@PFW	L 82-100	+3.5	L −14.5	148.5	O 182
Jan 22	@RMU	L 76-88	+4.5	L −7.5	152.5	O 164
Jan 24	@YSU	W 65-64	+6.5	W +7.5	151.5	U 129
Jan 30	vsWRST	L 69-76	+2.5	L −4.5	151.5	U 145
Feb 1	vsCLE	L 88-90	-9.5	L −11.5	160.5	O 178
Feb 4	vsDETM	L 63-76	-6.5	L −19.5	155.5	U 139
Feb 7	@NKU	L 62-67	+6.5	W +1.5	156.5	U 129
Feb 10	@IUIN	W 92-88	-2.5	W +1.5	158.5	O 180
Feb 15	vsGB	W 75-72	-2.5	W +0.5	145.5	O 147
Feb 20	@DETM	L 86-91	-1.5	L −6.5	153.5	O 177
Feb 22	@OAK	L 70-81	+5.5	L −5.5	159.5	U 151
Feb 25	vsYSU	W 78-65	+1.5	W +14.5	147.5	U 143
Mar 4	@DETM	L 63-84	+1.5	L −19.5	151.5	U 147

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

HAMP

W 90-86

−1.5

WOF

L 76-86

−13.5

W 92-72

+16.5

L 70-101

−6.5

TTU

L 63-80

+10.5

WICH

L 58-75

−6.5

AKR

L 81-105

−11.5

RMU

W 74-72

−2.5

INST

L 68-70

−4.5

SDST

W 88-87

+2.5

CLE

W 81-71

+3.5

PFW

W 77-55

+18.5

WIS

L 60-80

−0.5

WRST

L 70-76

−2.5

L 76-79

−6.5

NKU

L 67-85

−19.5

IUIN

W 95-83

+3.5

OAK

L 60-73

−10.5

PFW

L 82-100

−14.5

RMU

L 76-88

−7.5

YSU

W 65-64

+7.5

WRST

L 69-76

−4.5

CLE

L 88-90

−11.5

DETM

L 63-76

−19.5

NKU

L 62-67

+1.5

IUIN

W 92-88

+1.5

W 75-72

+0.5

DETM

L 86-91

−6.5

OAK

L 70-81

−5.5

YSU

W 78-65

+14.5

DETM

L 63-84

−19.5

covered 11didn’t cover 20avg −3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

HAMP

W 90-86

+29.5

WOF

L 76-86

+11.5

W 92-72

+7.5

L 70-101

+5.5

TTU

L 63-80

−22.5

WICH

L 58-75

−25.5

AKR

L 81-105

+19.5

RMU

W 74-72

−7.5

INST

L 68-70

−21.5

SDST

W 88-87

+23.5

CLE

W 81-71

−8.5

PFW

W 77-55

−24.5

WIS

L 60-80

−17.5

WRST

L 70-76

−1.5

L 76-79

+10.5

NKU

L 67-85

−5.5

IUIN

W 95-83

+12.5

OAK

L 60-73

−33.5

PFW

L 82-100

+33.5

RMU

L 76-88

+11.5

YSU

W 65-64

−22.5

WRST

L 69-76

−6.5

CLE

L 88-90

+17.5

DETM

L 63-76

−16.5

NKU

L 62-67

−27.5

IUIN

W 92-88

+21.5

W 75-72

+1.5

DETM

L 86-91

+23.5

OAK

L 70-81

−8.5

YSU

W 78-65

−4.5

DETM

L 63-84

−4.5

over 14under 17avg −1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Milwaukee has the better starters

Position by position: St Thomas 1, Milwaukee 3, even 1

St ThomasBetterMilwaukee

G A. Herro5.7 pts · 4 reb · 3.6 ast Score 57

STMNBig

G I. Dorceus5.3 pts · 1.5 reb · 3.6 ast Score 14

G H. Tibbits2.7 pts · 1 reb · 0.7 ast Score 24

MILWSmall

G T. Norman TR2.2 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.7 ast Score 55

F C. Bjerke9.2 pts · 3.4 reb · 1.2 ast Score 25

MILWBig

F D. Jovanovich12.3 pts · 6.1 reb · 2.2 ast Score 78

F C. Wilkins TR6.9 pts · 2.9 reb · 0.5 ast Score 9

MILWBig

F C. Jackson9.7 pts · 2.8 reb · 0.9 ast Score 67

F J. Lorenz TR2.2 pts · 1.8 reb · 1 ast Not ranked

No call

F S. Murchison0.7 pts · 0.8 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked

St ThomasBetterMilwaukee

STMN offense192nd of 366 · -5.9

STMNSmall

MILW defense297th of 366 · -7.6

STMN defense223rd of 366 · -5.8

Even

MILW offense180th of 366 · -5.5

Backcourt-1.0 · 2 players

STMNSmall

Backcourt-2.5 · 2 players

Frontcourt-4.0 · 3 players

MILWBig

Frontcourt+1.9 · 3 players

Bench-1.0 · 5 players

Even

Bench-0.2 · 2 players

Score, worst to bestSTMN betterMILW betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

St Thomas

Guards

A. Herro24 minH. Tibbits10 minK. Blue4 min · TRT. Franks3 minT. Humphries2 minA. Tauer2 min

Forwards

C. Bjerke25 minC. Wilkins22 min · TRJ. Lorenz10 min · TRK. Counts4 minL. MomcilovicNew

Milwaukee

Guards

I. Dorceus22 minT. Norman8 min · TRJ. Hansen1 min · TRJ. LovelaceNewD. OmwenoNewA. WomackNew

Forwards

D. Jovanovich31 minC. Jackson23 minS. Murchison5 minA. Amadou3 min · TRN. MalosaNewB. AkoroNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

STMN80.9 #48

MILW74.7 #173

Points per possession

STMN1.16 #45

MILW1.09 #172

Pace (possessions)

STMN69.7 #137

MILW69.1 #174

Shooting

Effective FG%

STMN58.9 #5

MILW49.9 #242

3-point %

STMN36.0 #57

MILW32.3 #266

3-point attempt rate

STMN46.3 #41

MILW38.1 #212

Free throw rate

STMN33.8 #220

MILW32.1 #256

Possessions

Turnover rate

STMN14.4 #37

MILW15.3 #85

Offensive rebound rate

STMN22.6 #353

MILW33.0 #88

Assists per game

STMN16.4 #37

MILW12.9 #220

Defense

Points allowed

STMN73.1 #135

MILW79.9 #317

Points allowed per possession

STMN1.05 #82

MILW1.15 #328

Opponent effective FG%

STMN50.7 #139

MILW55.5 #340

Opponent 3-point %

STMN31.7 #52

MILW36.5 #329

Turnovers forced

STMN17.0 #152

MILW15.8 #232

Defensive rebound rate

STMN73.4 #25

MILW70.8 #121

Steals per game

STMN7.5 #87

MILW6.5 #176

Blocks per game

STMN2.6 #296

MILW3.0 #230

STMN		MILW
Scoring
80.9 #48	Points per game	74.7 #173
1.16 #45	Points per possession	1.09 #172
69.7 #137	Pace (possessions)	69.1 #174
Shooting
58.9 #5	Effective FG%	49.9 #242
36.0 #57	3-point %	32.3 #266
46.3 #41	3-point attempt rate	38.1 #212
33.8 #220	Free throw rate	32.1 #256
Possessions
14.4 #37	Turnover rate	15.3 #85
22.6 #353	Offensive rebound rate	33.0 #88
16.4 #37	Assists per game	12.9 #220
Defense
73.1 #135	Points allowed	79.9 #317
1.05 #82	Points allowed per possession	1.15 #328
50.7 #139	Opponent effective FG%	55.5 #340
31.7 #52	Opponent 3-point %	36.5 #329
17.0 #152	Turnovers forced	15.8 #232
73.4 #25	Defensive rebound rate	70.8 #121
7.5 #87	Steals per game	6.5 #176
2.6 #296	Blocks per game	3.0 #230

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

St Thomas

21-10 in 2025-26 overall · 13-5 in conference · Summit League

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Seattle U52–67
Lvs North Dakota66–67
Wvs S Dakota St80–67
Wvs Omaha68–53
Wvs N Dakota St84–62

A week or more of rest.

Milwaukee

11-20 in 2025-26 overall · 8-13 in conference · Horizon League

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Detroit Mercy63–84
Wvs Youngstown St78–65
L@ Oakland70–81
L@ Detroit Mercy86–91
Wvs Green Bay75–72

A week or more of rest.

St. Thomas Tommies at Milwaukee Panthers

What could decide it: STMN has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

St Thomas

Milwaukee

Milwaukee has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

St Thomas

Milwaukee