Milwaukee Panthers at Florida Gators: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 24, 12:00 AM ETStephen C. O'Connell Center · at Florida

#1FLAFlorida AP #1

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Milwaukee and Florida
MILW	This season	FLA
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects FLA 101–57 · win probability FLA 100%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 158.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: FLA has more of the edges

MILW 1, FLA 8 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

FLABig

FLA offense vs MILW defense

Offense 1st of 366 against a defense 297th, on the model’s ratings

FLABig

Shooting

Effective FG%: MILW 49.9 and allows 55.5; FLA 54.1 and allows 46.1

Context

Schedule so far

MILW has played the 191st-hardest schedule, FLA the 9th. A record against a soft schedule means less

FLABig

MILW offense vs FLA defense

Offense 180th of 366 against a defense 4th, on the model’s ratings

FLABig

Free throws

Free throw rate: MILW 32.1, FLA 39.0. Allowed: MILW 35.9, FLA 34.0

FLASmall

Three-pointers

MILW hits 32.3% and allows 36.5%; FLA hits 31.2% and allows 32.1%. Threes are 38.1% and 37.0% of their shots

FLASmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: MILW 33.0%, FLA 43.4%. Defensive: MILW 70.8%, FLA 75.2%

FLASmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: MILW 40%, FLA 85%. Transfers in: MILW 3, FLA 1. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Context

Tempo

About 71 possessions: MILW plays 69.1 a game (174th fastest), FLA 72.0 (34th). Faster games mean more points

MILWSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: MILW 15.3%, FLA 16.4%. Forced: MILW 15.8%, FLA 15.2%

FLASmall

Home court

FLA at home. This season: FLA 0-0 at home, MILW 0-0 away

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	FLA -43.9	—
Total	—	158.2	—
Projected score	—	MILW 57.2 · FLA 101

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	FLA -25.9	—
1H total	73.9	—
1H projected score	MILW 24 · FLA 49.9	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MILW WLLWL	11-20	35%	5-12	—
FLA WLLWL	19-16	54%	7-8	—

Venue/role: MILW away; FLA home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
MILW OOUUU	14-17	45%	11-20
FLA UUOOU	15-20	43%	27-8

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MILW	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
FLA	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Milwaukee

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 29	@ ORST	No recent meeting
Dec 3	vs WRST	L69–76LU
Dec 5	@ NIU	No recent meeting

Florida

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 1	vs DUKE	L66–67WU
Dec 6	vs UVM	No recent meeting
Dec 12	vs GT	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

MILW 0–1 FLAFLA leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · MILW 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 18, 2021-22	MILW 45 @ FLA 81	FLA -16.5	FLA W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Milwaukee

31 games played

Straight up

11-20

35% wins

Against the spread

11-20

35% covers · avg −3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-17

45% overs · avg −1 pts vs the total

Straight up

11-2035%

W L W L L L L W L W W W L L L L W L L L W L L L L W W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

11-2035%

L L W L W L L L L W W W L L L L W L L L W L L L W W W L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

14-1745%

O O O O U U O U U O U U U U O U O U O O U U O U U O O O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsHAMP	W 90-86	-5.5	L −1.5	146.5	O 176
Nov 8	@WOF	L 76-86	-3.5	L −13.5	150.5	O 162
Nov 10	vsLR	W 92-72	-3.5	W +16.5	156.5	O 164
Nov 12	@IU	L 70-101	+24.5	L −6.5	165.5	O 171
Nov 14	@TTU	L 63-80	+27.5	W +10.5	165.5	U 143
Nov 22	@WICH	L 58-75	+10.5	L −6.5	158.5	U 133
Nov 29	@AKR	L 81-105	+12.5	L −11.5	166.5	O 186
Dec 6	vsRMU	W 74-72	-4.5	L −2.5	153.5	U 146
Dec 14	vsINST	L 68-70	-2.5	L −4.5	159.5	U 138
Dec 19	vsSDST	W 88-87	+1.5	W +2.5	151.5	O 175
Dec 21	@CLE	W 81-71	-6.5	W +3.5	160.5	U 152
Dec 29	vsPFW	W 77-55	-3.5	W +18.5	156.5	U 132
Dec 30	@WIS	L 60-80	+19.5	L −0.5	157.5	U 140
Jan 1	@WRST	L 70-76	+3.5	L −2.5	147.5	U 146
Jan 5	@GB	L 76-79	-3.5	L −6.5	144.5	O 155
Jan 9	vsNKU	L 67-85	-1.5	L −19.5	157.5	U 152
Jan 11	vsIUIN	W 95-83	-8.5	W +3.5	165.5	O 178
Jan 15	vsOAK	L 60-73	+2.5	L −10.5	166.5	U 133
Jan 18	@PFW	L 82-100	+3.5	L −14.5	148.5	O 182
Jan 22	@RMU	L 76-88	+4.5	L −7.5	152.5	O 164
Jan 24	@YSU	W 65-64	+6.5	W +7.5	151.5	U 129
Jan 30	vsWRST	L 69-76	+2.5	L −4.5	151.5	U 145
Feb 1	vsCLE	L 88-90	-9.5	L −11.5	160.5	O 178
Feb 4	vsDETM	L 63-76	-6.5	L −19.5	155.5	U 139
Feb 7	@NKU	L 62-67	+6.5	W +1.5	156.5	U 129
Feb 10	@IUIN	W 92-88	-2.5	W +1.5	158.5	O 180
Feb 15	vsGB	W 75-72	-2.5	W +0.5	145.5	O 147
Feb 20	@DETM	L 86-91	-1.5	L −6.5	153.5	O 177
Feb 22	@OAK	L 70-81	+5.5	L −5.5	159.5	U 151
Feb 25	vsYSU	W 78-65	+1.5	W +14.5	147.5	U 143
Mar 4	@DETM	L 63-84	+1.5	L −19.5	151.5	U 147

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

HAMP

W 90-86

−1.5

WOF

L 76-86

−13.5

W 92-72

+16.5

L 70-101

−6.5

TTU

L 63-80

+10.5

WICH

L 58-75

−6.5

AKR

L 81-105

−11.5

RMU

W 74-72

−2.5

INST

L 68-70

−4.5

SDST

W 88-87

+2.5

CLE

W 81-71

+3.5

PFW

W 77-55

+18.5

WIS

L 60-80

−0.5

WRST

L 70-76

−2.5

L 76-79

−6.5

NKU

L 67-85

−19.5

IUIN

W 95-83

+3.5

OAK

L 60-73

−10.5

PFW

L 82-100

−14.5

RMU

L 76-88

−7.5

YSU

W 65-64

+7.5

WRST

L 69-76

−4.5

CLE

L 88-90

−11.5

DETM

L 63-76

−19.5

NKU

L 62-67

+1.5

IUIN

W 92-88

+1.5

W 75-72

+0.5

DETM

L 86-91

−6.5

OAK

L 70-81

−5.5

YSU

W 78-65

+14.5

DETM

L 63-84

−19.5

covered 11didn’t cover 20avg −3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

HAMP

W 90-86

+29.5

WOF

L 76-86

+11.5

W 92-72

+7.5

L 70-101

+5.5

TTU

L 63-80

−22.5

WICH

L 58-75

−25.5

AKR

L 81-105

+19.5

RMU

W 74-72

−7.5

INST

L 68-70

−21.5

SDST

W 88-87

+23.5

CLE

W 81-71

−8.5

PFW

W 77-55

−24.5

WIS

L 60-80

−17.5

WRST

L 70-76

−1.5

L 76-79

+10.5

NKU

L 67-85

−5.5

IUIN

W 95-83

+12.5

OAK

L 60-73

−33.5

PFW

L 82-100

+33.5

RMU

L 76-88

+11.5

YSU

W 65-64

−22.5

WRST

L 69-76

−6.5

CLE

L 88-90

+17.5

DETM

L 63-76

−16.5

NKU

L 62-67

−27.5

IUIN

W 92-88

+21.5

W 75-72

+1.5

DETM

L 86-91

+23.5

OAK

L 70-81

−8.5

YSU

W 78-65

−4.5

DETM

L 63-84

−4.5

over 14under 17avg −1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Florida

35 games played

Straight up

27-8

77% wins

Against the spread

19-16

54% covers · avg +1.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-20

43% overs · avg −2 pts vs the total

Straight up

27-877%

L W W W W L W L L W W W W L W W W W W L W W W W W W W W W W W W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

19-1654%

L L L W L L L W W L L W L L W W W W W L W W W W L L W W W W W L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

15-2043%

O U U U U O U U O U O U O U U O O O U U U O U U O U O U O O U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsARIZ	L 87-93	-3.5	L −9.5	164.5	O 180
Nov 6	vsUNF	W 104-64	-43.5	L −3.5	169.5	U 168
Nov 11	vsFSU	W 78-76	-17.5	L −15.5	180.5	U 154
Nov 16	vsMIA	W 82-68	-10.5	W +3.5	171.5	U 150
Nov 21	vsMRMK	W 80-45	-36.5	L −1.5	158.5	U 125
Nov 27	vsTCU	L 80-84	-11.5	L −15.5	155.5	O 164
Nov 28	vsPROV	W 90-78	-12.5	L −0.5	169.5	U 168
Dec 2	@DUKE	L 66-67	+9.5	W +8.5	157.5	U 133
Dec 9	vsCONN	L 73-77	+4.5	W +0.5	145.5	O 150
Dec 13	vsGW	W 80-70	-14.5	L −4.5	162.5	U 150
Dec 17	vsSFPA	W 102-61	-44.5	L −3.5	156.5	O 163
Dec 21	vsCOLG	W 90-60	-27.5	W +2.5	156.5	U 150
Dec 29	vsDART	W 94-72	-35.5	L −13.5	160.5	O 166
Jan 3	@MIZ	L 74-76	-7.5	L −9.5	154.5	U 150
Jan 6	vsUGA	W 92-77	-9.5	W +5.5	172.5	U 169
Jan 10	vsTENN	W 91-67	-4.5	W +19.5	151.5	O 158
Jan 13	@OU	W 96-79	-7.5	W +9.5	157.5	O 175
Jan 17	@VAN	W 98-94	-1.5	W +2.5	164.5	O 192
Jan 20	vsLSU	W 79-61	-15.5	W +2.5	158.5	U 140
Jan 24	vsAUB	L 67-76	-11.5	L −20.5	159.5	U 143
Jan 28	@SC	W 95-48	-13.5	W +33.5	151.5	U 143
Feb 1	vsALA	W 100-77	-9.5	W +13.5	176.5	O 177
Feb 7	@TA&M	W 86-67	-5.5	W +13.5	167.5	U 153
Feb 11	@UGA	W 86-66	-8.5	W +11.5	164.5	U 152
Feb 14	vsUK	W 92-83	-12.5	L −3.5	154.5	O 175
Feb 17	vsSC	W 76-62	-23.5	L −9.5	156.5	U 138
Feb 21	@MISS	W 94-75	-13.5	W +5.5	152.5	O 169
Feb 25	@TEX	W 84-71	-6.5	W +6.5	157.5	U 155
Feb 28	vsARK	W 111-77	-9.5	W +24.5	169.5	O 188
Mar 3	vsMSST	W 108-74	-20.5	W +13.5	161.5	O 182
Mar 7	@UK	W 84-77	-5.5	W +1.5	162.5	U 161
Mar 13	vsUK	W 71-63	-10.5	L −2.5	161.5	U 134
Mar 14	vsVAN	L 74-91	-7.5	L −24.5	161.5	O 165
Mar 20	vsPV	W 114-55	-35.5	W +23.5	154.5	O 169
Mar 22	vsIOWA	L 72-73	-10.5	L −11.5	145.5	U 145

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ARIZ

L 87-93

−9.5

UNF

W 104-64

−3.5

FSU

W 78-76

−15.5

MIA

W 82-68

+3.5

MRMK

W 80-45

−1.5

TCU

L 80-84

−15.5

PROV

W 90-78

−0.5

DUKE

L 66-67

+8.5

CONN

L 73-77

+0.5

W 80-70

−4.5

SFPA

W 102-61

−3.5

COLG

W 90-60

+2.5

DART

W 94-72

−13.5

MIZ

L 74-76

−9.5

UGA

W 92-77

+5.5

TENN

W 91-67

+19.5

W 96-79

+9.5

VAN

W 98-94

+2.5

LSU

W 79-61

+2.5

AUB

L 67-76

−20.5

W 95-48

+33.5

ALA

W 100-77

+13.5

TA&M

W 86-67

+13.5

UGA

W 86-66

+11.5

W 92-83

−3.5

W 76-62

−9.5

MISS

W 94-75

+5.5

TEX

W 84-71

+6.5

ARK

W 111-77

+24.5

MSST

W 108-74

+13.5

W 84-77

+1.5

W 71-63

−2.5

VAN

L 74-91

−24.5

W 114-55

+23.5

IOWA

L 72-73

−11.5

covered 19didn’t cover 16avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ARIZ

L 87-93

+15.5

UNF

W 104-64

−1.5

FSU

W 78-76

−26.5

MIA

W 82-68

−21.5

MRMK

W 80-45

−33.5

TCU

L 80-84

+8.5

PROV

W 90-78

−1.5

DUKE

L 66-67

−24.5

CONN

L 73-77

+4.5

W 80-70

−12.5

SFPA

W 102-61

+6.5

COLG

W 90-60

−6.5

DART

W 94-72

+5.5

MIZ

L 74-76

−4.5

UGA

W 92-77

−3.5

TENN

W 91-67

+6.5

W 96-79

+17.5

VAN

W 98-94

+27.5

LSU

W 79-61

−18.5

AUB

L 67-76

−16.5

W 95-48

−8.5

ALA

W 100-77

+0.5

TA&M

W 86-67

−14.5

UGA

W 86-66

−12.5

W 92-83

+20.5

W 76-62

−18.5

MISS

W 94-75

+16.5

TEX

W 84-71

−2.5

ARK

W 111-77

+18.5

MSST

W 108-74

+20.5

W 84-77

−1.5

W 71-63

−27.5

VAN

L 74-91

+3.5

W 114-55

+14.5

IOWA

L 72-73

−0.5

over 15under 20avg −2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Florida has the better starters

Position by position: Milwaukee 0, Florida 4, even 1

MilwaukeeBetterFlorida

G I. Dorceus5.3 pts · 1.5 reb · 3.6 ast Score 14

FLABig

G D. Aberdeen TR13.5 pts · 2.5 reb · 3.4 ast Score 90

G T. Norman TR2.2 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.7 ast Score 55

FLASmall

G B. Fland11.6 pts · 2.5 reb · 3.5 ast Score 89

F D. Jovanovich12.3 pts · 6.1 reb · 2.2 ast Score 78

FLASmall

F T. Haugh17.1 pts · 6.1 reb · 2.1 ast Score 97

F C. Jackson9.7 pts · 2.8 reb · 0.9 ast Score 67

FLASmall

F A. Condon15.1 pts · 7.5 reb · 3.6 ast Score 98

F S. Murchison0.7 pts · 0.8 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked

No call

C R. Chinyelu10.9 pts · 11.2 reb · 0.7 ast Score 97

MilwaukeeBetterFlorida

MILW offense180th of 366 · -5.5

FLABig

FLA defense4th of 366 · +10.4

MILW defense297th of 366 · -7.6

FLABig

FLA offense1st of 366 · +17.0

Backcourt-2.5 · 2 players

FLABig

Backcourt+5.2 · 2 players

Frontcourt+1.9 · 3 players

FLABig

Frontcourt+17.1 · 3 players

Bench-0.2 · 2 players

FLABig

Bench+3.0 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestMILW betterFLA betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Milwaukee

Guards

I. Dorceus22 minT. Norman8 min · TRJ. Hansen1 min · TRJ. LovelaceNewD. OmwenoNewA. WomackNew

Forwards

D. Jovanovich31 minC. Jackson23 minS. Murchison5 minA. Amadou3 min · TRN. MalosaNewB. AkoroNew

Florida

Guards

D. Aberdeen31 min · TRB. Fland30 minU. Klavzar21 minI. Brown13 minC. Ingram6 minA. Lloyd5 min

Forwards

T. Haugh33 minA. Condon31 minD. PetrovicNewA. ButajevasNew

Centers

R. Chinyelu25 minV. Mikic3 minJ. LayNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

MILW74.7 #173

FLA87.1 #5

Points per possession

MILW1.09 #172

FLA1.21 #7

Pace (possessions)

MILW69.1 #174

FLA72.0 #34

Shooting

Effective FG%

MILW49.9 #242

FLA54.1 #63

3-point %

MILW32.3 #266

FLA31.2 #315

3-point attempt rate

MILW38.1 #212

FLA37.0 #230

Free throw rate

MILW32.1 #256

FLA39.0 #80

Possessions

Turnover rate

MILW15.3 #85

FLA16.4 #162

Offensive rebound rate

MILW33.0 #88

FLA43.4 #2

Assists per game

MILW12.9 #220

FLA17.0 #26

Defense

Points allowed

MILW79.9 #317

FLA71.5 #93

Points allowed per possession

MILW1.15 #328

FLA0.99 #19

Opponent effective FG%

MILW55.5 #340

FLA46.1 #10

Opponent 3-point %

MILW36.5 #329

FLA32.1 #66

Turnovers forced

MILW15.8 #232

FLA15.2 #269

Defensive rebound rate

MILW70.8 #121

FLA75.2 #7

Steals per game

MILW6.5 #176

FLA6.6 #158

Blocks per game

MILW3.0 #230

FLA5.0 #16

MILW		FLA
Scoring
74.7 #173	Points per game	87.1 #5
1.09 #172	Points per possession	1.21 #7
69.1 #174	Pace (possessions)	72.0 #34
Shooting
49.9 #242	Effective FG%	54.1 #63
32.3 #266	3-point %	31.2 #315
38.1 #212	3-point attempt rate	37.0 #230
32.1 #256	Free throw rate	39.0 #80
Possessions
15.3 #85	Turnover rate	16.4 #162
33.0 #88	Offensive rebound rate	43.4 #2
12.9 #220	Assists per game	17.0 #26
Defense
79.9 #317	Points allowed	71.5 #93
1.15 #328	Points allowed per possession	0.99 #19
55.5 #340	Opponent effective FG%	46.1 #10
36.5 #329	Opponent 3-point %	32.1 #66
15.8 #232	Turnovers forced	15.2 #269
70.8 #121	Defensive rebound rate	75.2 #7
6.5 #176	Steals per game	6.6 #158
3.0 #230	Blocks per game	5.0 #16

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Milwaukee

11-20 in 2025-26 overall · 8-13 in conference · Horizon League

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Detroit Mercy63–84
Wvs Youngstown St78–65
L@ Oakland70–81
L@ Detroit Mercy86–91
Wvs Green Bay75–72

A week or more of rest.

Florida

27-8 in 2025-26 overall · 17-3 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Iowa72–73
Wvs Prairie View114–55
Lvs Vanderbilt74–91
Wvs Kentucky71–63
W@ Kentucky84–77

A week or more of rest.

Milwaukee Panthers at Florida Gators

What could decide it: FLA has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Milwaukee

Florida

Florida has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Milwaukee

Florida