Rider Broncs at Villanova Wildcats: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 14, 7:00 PM ETFinneran Pavilion · at Villanova

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Rider and Villanova
RID	This season	VILL
0-0	Record	0-1
0-0	ATS	0-1
0-0	O/U	1-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects VILL 90–56 · win probability VILL 100%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 145.9

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: VILL has more of the edges

RID 0, VILL 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

VILLBig

RID offense vs VILL defense

Offense 348th of 366 against a defense 30th, on the model’s ratings

VILLBig

VILL offense vs RID defense

Offense 39th of 366 against a defense 315th, on the model’s ratings

VILLBig

Three-pointers

RID hits 27.6% and allows 38.0%; VILL hits 35.7% and allows 33.4%. Threes are 27.5% and 45.7% of their shots

VILLBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: RID 42.8 and allows 55.2; VILL 53.8 and allows 51.4

Context

Schedule so far

RID has played the 201st-hardest schedule, VILL the 35th. A record against a soft schedule means less

VILLBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: RID 16.9%, VILL 15.0%. Forced: RID 15.3%, VILL 18.6%

VILLSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: RID 0%, VILL 33%. Transfers in: RID 6, VILL 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

VILLSmall

Home court

VILL at home. This season: VILL 0-0 at home, RID 0-0 away

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: RID 30.1, VILL 30.9. Allowed: RID 32.5, VILL 30.0

Context

Tempo

About 66 possessions: RID plays 65.7 a game (323rd fastest), VILL 67.3 (270th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: RID 32.6%, VILL 32.2%. Defensive: RID 67.2%, VILL 68.2%

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	VILL -33.6	—
Total	—	145.9	—
Projected score	—	RID 56.1 · VILL 89.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	VILL -19.9	—
1H total	68.2	—
1H projected score	RID 24.2 · VILL 44	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
RID LLWLL	9-19	32%	6-10	—
VILL LWWLL	19-14	58%	9-8	—

Venue/role: RID away; VILL home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
RID OOUUU	9-19	32%	3-25
VILL UUOOO	20-13	61%	24-9

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
RID	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%
VILL	6-4 60%	3-7 30%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Rider

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 17	@ MIA	No recent meeting
Nov 21	vs NAVY	W90–79WO
Nov 24	@ L-MD	No recent meeting

Villanova

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 17	@ PITT	W79–61WO
Nov 21	vs MICH	L61–89LU
Nov 24	vs COPP	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

RID 0–1 VILLVILL leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · RID 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 27, 2024-25	RID 48 @ VILL 72	VILL -18.5	VILL W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Rider

28 games played

Straight up

3-25

11% wins

Against the spread

9-19

32% covers · avg −3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

9-19

32% overs · avg +0 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-2511%

L L L L L L L L L L L L L L W L L L L W L L L L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

9-1932%

L L L L L W W L W W L L W L W L L L W W L L L L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

9-1932%

U U O O U U U U U O U O U U U U O U O O U U U O O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@UVA	L 53-87	+26.5	L −7.5	148.5	U 140
Nov 5	@RUTG	L 53-81	+18.5	L −9.5	139.5	U 134
Nov 18	@TEX	L 65-99	+30.5	L −3.5	143.5	O 164
Nov 20	@HOU	L 45-91	+40.5	L −5.5	134.5	O 136
Nov 25	vsCOPP	L 65-68	-8.5	L −11.5	139.5	U 133
Dec 4	@MRMK	L 66-68	+9.5	W +7.5	138.5	U 134
Dec 7	@QUIN	L 58-72	+14.5	W +0.5	147.5	U 130
Dec 9	vsBUCK	L 38-51	+2.5	L −10.5	135.5	U 89
Dec 16	@DEL	L 57-65	+8.5	W +0.5	129.5	U 122
Dec 22	@VCU	L 79-100	+30.5	W +9.5	145.5	O 179
Dec 29	vsMAN	L 71-74	+2.5	L −0.5	147.5	U 145
Jan 4	vsSIE	L 65-74	+8.5	L −0.5	135.5	O 139
Jan 9	@FAIR	L 62-68	+8.5	W +2.5	145.5	U 130
Jan 11	vsMRST	L 49-71	+10.5	L −11.5	131.5	U 120
Jan 14	vsIONA	W 72-68	+7.5	W +11.5	141.5	U 140
Jan 17	@SPU	L 58-69	+10.5	L −0.5	134.5	U 127
Jan 19	vsSHU	L 85-105	+4.5	L −15.5	144.5	O 190
Jan 24	@MSM	L 61-71	+9.5	L −0.5	139.5	U 132
Jan 30	@MAN	L 90-95	+5.5	W +0.5	145.5	O 185
Feb 1	vsSPU	W 81-78	+7.5	W +10.5	136.5	O 159
Feb 5	@MRST	L 52-81	+14.5	L −14.5	135.5	U 133
Feb 7	vsMRMK	L 47-73	+8.5	L −17.5	137.5	U 120
Feb 13	vsMSM	L 55-65	+5.5	L −4.5	137.5	U 120
Feb 15	@SHU	L 75-86	+9.5	L −1.5	146.5	O 161
Feb 20	vsCAN	L 66-72	-1.5	L −7.5	131.5	O 138
Feb 22	vsNIA	W 67-62	+1.5	W +6.5	131.5	U 129
Feb 27	@IONA	L 58-80	+11.5	L −10.5	141.5	U 138
Mar 1	@SIE	L 61-76	+14.5	L −0.5	137.5	U 137

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UVA

L 53-87

−7.5

RUTG

L 53-81

−9.5

TEX

L 65-99

−3.5

HOU

L 45-91

−5.5

COPP

L 65-68

−11.5

MRMK

L 66-68

+7.5

QUIN

L 58-72

+0.5

BUCK

L 38-51

−10.5

DEL

L 57-65

+0.5

VCU

L 79-100

+9.5

MAN

L 71-74

−0.5

SIE

L 65-74

−0.5

FAIR

L 62-68

+2.5

MRST

L 49-71

−11.5

IONA

W 72-68

+11.5

SPU

L 58-69

−0.5

SHU

L 85-105

−15.5

MSM

L 61-71

−0.5

MAN

L 90-95

+0.5

SPU

W 81-78

+10.5

MRST

L 52-81

−14.5

MRMK

L 47-73

−17.5

MSM

L 55-65

−4.5

SHU

L 75-86

−1.5

CAN

L 66-72

−7.5

NIA

W 67-62

+6.5

IONA

L 58-80

−10.5

SIE

L 61-76

−0.5

covered 9didn’t cover 19avg −3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UVA

L 53-87

−8.5

RUTG

L 53-81

−5.5

TEX

L 65-99

+20.5

HOU

L 45-91

+1.5

COPP

L 65-68

−6.5

MRMK

L 66-68

−4.5

QUIN

L 58-72

−17.5

BUCK

L 38-51

−46.5

DEL

L 57-65

−7.5

VCU

L 79-100

+33.5

MAN

L 71-74

−2.5

SIE

L 65-74

+3.5

FAIR

L 62-68

−15.5

MRST

L 49-71

−11.5

IONA

W 72-68

−1.5

SPU

L 58-69

−7.5

SHU

L 85-105

+45.5

MSM

L 61-71

−7.5

MAN

L 90-95

+39.5

SPU

W 81-78

+22.5

MRST

L 52-81

−2.5

MRMK

L 47-73

−17.5

MSM

L 55-65

−17.5

SHU

L 75-86

+14.5

CAN

L 66-72

+6.5

NIA

W 67-62

−2.5

IONA

L 58-80

−3.5

SIE

L 61-76

−0.5

over 9under 19avg +0 ptslonger = bigger margin

Villanova

33 games played

Straight up

24-9

73% wins

Against the spread

19-14

58% covers · avg +1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

20-13

61% overs · avg +1.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

24-973%

L W W W W W W W L W W W W W L W W L W L W W W W W W L W L W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

19-1458%

W W W L W L W W L W W W L W L L W L W W W W W L W L L L L W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

20-1361%

U O U O U O U O U O U U U O O O O O U O O U O O O O U O U U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsBYU	L 66-71	+9.5	W +4.5	153.5	U 137
Nov 8	vsQUC	W 94-74	-17.5	W +2.5	150.5	O 168
Nov 11	vsSHU	W 94-60	-19.5	W +14.5	160.5	U 154
Nov 15	vsDUQ	W 87-77	-10.5	L −0.5	151.5	O 164
Nov 19	@LAS	W 70-55	-12.5	W +2.5	144.5	U 125
Nov 25	vsODU	W 89-75	-22.5	L −8.5	147.5	O 164
Dec 1	vsTEM	W 74-56	-14.5	W +3.5	146.5	U 130
Dec 6	vsPENN	W 90-63	-18.5	W +8.5	150.5	O 153
Dec 9	@MICH	L 61-89	+17.5	L −10.5	156.5	U 150
Dec 13	vsPITT	W 79-61	-10.5	W +7.5	138.5	O 140
Dec 19	vsWIS	W 76-66	+3.5	W +13.5	152.5	U 142
Dec 23	@HALL	W 64-56	+1.5	W +9.5	135.5	U 120
Dec 31	vsDEP	W 71-66	-12.5	L −7.5	139.5	U 137
Jan 3	@BTLR	W 85-67	+2.5	W +20.5	149.5	O 152
Jan 7	vsCREI	L 72-76	-4.5	L −8.5	142.5	O 148
Jan 10	@MARQ	W 76-73	-3.5	L −0.5	146.5	O 149
Jan 13	@PROV	W 88-82	-2.5	W +3.5	156.5	O 170
Jan 17	vsSJU	L 79-86	+2.5	L −4.5	147.5	O 165
Jan 21	vsGTWN	W 66-51	-8.5	W +6.5	142.5	U 117
Jan 24	@CONN	L 67-75	+11.5	W +3.5	137.5	O 142
Jan 30	vsPROV	W 87-73	-8.5	W +5.5	157.5	O 160
Feb 4	vsHALL	W 72-60	-5.5	W +6.5	134.5	U 132
Feb 7	@GTWN	W 80-73	-2.5	W +4.5	140.5	O 153
Feb 10	vsMARQ	W 77-74	-9.5	L −6.5	144.5	O 151
Feb 14	@CREI	W 80-69	-1.5	W +9.5	145.5	O 149
Feb 17	@XAV	W 92-89	-4.5	L −1.5	152.5	O 181
Feb 21	vsCONN	L 63-73	+3.5	L −6.5	141.5	U 136
Feb 25	vsBTLR	W 82-73	-10.5	L −1.5	147.5	O 155
Feb 28	@SJU	L 57-89	+7.5	L −24.5	147.5	U 146
Mar 4	@DEP	W 76-57	-1.5	W +17.5	135.5	U 133
Mar 7	vsXAV	W 91-78	-11.5	W +1.5	153.5	O 169
Mar 12	vsGTWN	L 64-78	-7.5	L −21.5	140.5	O 142
Mar 20	vsUSU	L 76-86	+1.5	L −8.5	146.5	O 162

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BYU

L 66-71

+4.5

QUC

W 94-74

+2.5

SHU

W 94-60

+14.5

DUQ

W 87-77

−0.5

LAS

W 70-55

+2.5

ODU

W 89-75

−8.5

TEM

W 74-56

+3.5

PENN

W 90-63

+8.5

MICH

L 61-89

−10.5

PITT

W 79-61

+7.5

WIS

W 76-66

+13.5

HALL

W 64-56

+9.5

DEP

W 71-66

−7.5

BTLR

W 85-67

+20.5

CREI

L 72-76

−8.5

MARQ

W 76-73

−0.5

PROV

W 88-82

+3.5

SJU

L 79-86

−4.5

GTWN

W 66-51

+6.5

CONN

L 67-75

+3.5

PROV

W 87-73

+5.5

HALL

W 72-60

+6.5

GTWN

W 80-73

+4.5

MARQ

W 77-74

−6.5

CREI

W 80-69

+9.5

XAV

W 92-89

−1.5

CONN

L 63-73

−6.5

BTLR

W 82-73

−1.5

SJU

L 57-89

−24.5

DEP

W 76-57

+17.5

XAV

W 91-78

+1.5

GTWN

L 64-78

−21.5

USU

L 76-86

−8.5

covered 19didn’t cover 14avg +1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BYU

L 66-71

−16.5

QUC

W 94-74

+17.5

SHU

W 94-60

−6.5

DUQ

W 87-77

+12.5

LAS

W 70-55

−19.5

ODU

W 89-75

+16.5

TEM

W 74-56

−16.5

PENN

W 90-63

+2.5

MICH

L 61-89

−6.5

PITT

W 79-61

+1.5

WIS

W 76-66

−10.5

HALL

W 64-56

−15.5

DEP

W 71-66

−2.5

BTLR

W 85-67

+2.5

CREI

L 72-76

+5.5

MARQ

W 76-73

+2.5

PROV

W 88-82

+13.5

SJU

L 79-86

+17.5

GTWN

W 66-51

−25.5

CONN

L 67-75

+4.5

PROV

W 87-73

+2.5

HALL

W 72-60

−2.5

GTWN

W 80-73

+12.5

MARQ

W 77-74

+6.5

CREI

W 80-69

+3.5

XAV

W 92-89

+28.5

CONN

L 63-73

−5.5

BTLR

W 82-73

+7.5

SJU

L 57-89

−1.5

DEP

W 76-57

−2.5

XAV

W 91-78

+15.5

GTWN

L 64-78

+1.5

USU

L 76-86

+15.5

over 20under 13avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Villanova has the better starters

Position by position: Rider 0, Villanova 2, even 3

RiderBetterVillanova

G M. Butler TR10.9 pts · 2.2 reb · 4.3 ast Score 44

VILLBig

G J. Fiegen TR11 pts · 5 reb · 1 ast Score 82

G K. Farmer TR3.5 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.4 ast Score 6

VILLBig

G D. Simmons TR16.3 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.8 ast Score 63

G B. Baker TR1.6 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.4 ast Not ranked

No call

G T. Perkins18 pts · 4 reb · 3 ast Score 100

G T. Bevins TR0.6 pts · 0.7 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked

No call

F D. Royal TR5 pts · 8 reb · 0 ast Score 100

F H. Simmons TR1.7 pts · 0.8 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked

No call

F K. Evans TR13.3 pts · 7.4 reb · 2 ast Score 95

RiderBetterVillanova

RID offense348th of 366 · -12.2

VILLBig

VILL defense30th of 366 · +3.5

RID defense315th of 366 · -8.2

VILLBig

VILL offense39th of 366 · +5.0

Backcourt-5.5 · 4 players

VILLBig

Backcourt+7.2 · 3 players

Frontcourt-0.3 · 1 player

VILLBig

Frontcourt+6.1 · 2 players

Bench-0.3 · 1 player

VILLBig

Bench+3.3 · 4 players

Score, worst to bestRID betterVILL betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Rider

Guards

M. Butler34 min · TRK. Farmer14 min · TRB. Baker13 min · TRT. Bevins5 min · TRN. WashingtonNewR. RosaNew

Forwards

H. Simmons6 min · TRR. Brisco2 min · TRK. WylieNewS. Ezekiel ObeNew

Centers

S. Avegah SemeyNew

Villanova

Guards

J. Fiegen38 min · TRD. Simmons36 min · TRT. Perkins35 minE. Crawford26 min · TRW. Chiddick3 minB. MullerNew

Forwards

D. Royal32 min · TRK. Evans31 min · TRM. Hodge28 minA. Samb6 min · TR

Centers

N. OnyekwereNewL. SuigoNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

RID62.6 #359

VILL77.1 #113

Points per possession

RID0.95 #355

VILL1.15 #64

Pace (possessions)

RID65.7 #323

VILL67.3 #270

Shooting

Effective FG%

RID42.8 #365

VILL53.8 #74

3-point %

RID27.6 #365

VILL35.7 #77

3-point attempt rate

RID27.5 #361

VILL45.7 #52

Free throw rate

RID30.1 #307

VILL30.9 #284

Possessions

Turnover rate

RID16.9 #197

VILL15.0 #65

Offensive rebound rate

RID32.6 #101

VILL32.2 #118

Assists per game

RID10.1 #356

VILL15.5 #66

Defense

Points allowed

RID76.8 #236

VILL71.2 #82

Points allowed per possession

RID1.17 #341

VILL1.06 #105

Opponent effective FG%

RID55.2 #335

VILL51.4 #181

Opponent 3-point %

RID38.0 #356

VILL33.4 #148

Turnovers forced

RID15.3 #266

VILL18.6 #70

Defensive rebound rate

RID67.2 #294

VILL68.2 #246

Steals per game

RID5.9 #247

VILL7.4 #93

Blocks per game

RID3.2 #188

VILL2.1 #340

RID		VILL
Scoring
62.6 #359	Points per game	77.1 #113
0.95 #355	Points per possession	1.15 #64
65.7 #323	Pace (possessions)	67.3 #270
Shooting
42.8 #365	Effective FG%	53.8 #74
27.6 #365	3-point %	35.7 #77
27.5 #361	3-point attempt rate	45.7 #52
30.1 #307	Free throw rate	30.9 #284
Possessions
16.9 #197	Turnover rate	15.0 #65
32.6 #101	Offensive rebound rate	32.2 #118
10.1 #356	Assists per game	15.5 #66
Defense
76.8 #236	Points allowed	71.2 #82
1.17 #341	Points allowed per possession	1.06 #105
55.2 #335	Opponent effective FG%	51.4 #181
38.0 #356	Opponent 3-point %	33.4 #148
15.3 #266	Turnovers forced	18.6 #70
67.2 #294	Defensive rebound rate	68.2 #246
5.9 #247	Steals per game	7.4 #93
3.2 #188	Blocks per game	2.1 #340

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Rider

3-25 in 2025-26 overall · 3-17 in conference · Metro Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Siena61–76
L@ Iona58–80
Wvs Niagara67–62
Lvs Canisius66–72
L@ Sacred Heart75–86

A week or more of rest.

Villanova

24-9 in 2025-26 overall · 15-6 in conference · Big East Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Utah State76–86
Lvs Georgetown64–78
Wvs Xavier91–78
W@ DePaul76–57
L@ St John's57–89

A week or more of rest.

Rider Broncs at Villanova Wildcats

What could decide it: VILL has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Rider

Villanova

Villanova has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Rider

Villanova