1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Nov 17
  3. UTA @ USM
NCAAB · Tue, Nov 17

UT Arlington Mavericks at Southern Miss Golden Eagles

Reed Green Coliseum · at Southern Miss
#258UTAUT Arlington
@
#224USMSouthern Miss
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
UTAThis seasonUSM
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects USM 75–70 · win probability USM 66%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 145.1
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

UTA 2, USM 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
UTABig
Three-pointers
UTA hits 29.1% and allows 26.9%; USM hits 28.9% and allows 34.5%. Threes are 30.7% and 28.7% of their shots
Context
Schedule so far
UTA has played the 268th-hardest schedule, USM the 184th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: UTA plays 67.3 a game (265th fastest), USM 70.1 (113th). Faster games mean more points
UTASmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: UTA 47.2 and allows 47.5; USM 49.0 and allows 51.4
USMSmall
Home court
USM at home. This season: USM 0-0 at home, UTA 0-0 away
USMSmall
UTA offense vs USM defense
Offense 289th of 366 against a defense 239th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UTA 7%, USM 23%. Transfers in: UTA 5, USM 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UTA 20.7%, USM 18.4%. Forced: UTA 18.0%, USM 17.8%
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: UTA 42.5, USM 43.2. Allowed: UTA 40.9, USM 43.6
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UTA 34.9%, USM 32.5%. Defensive: UTA 69.9%, USM 71.2%
Even
USM offense vs UTA defense
Offense 203rd of 366 against a defense 211th, on the model’s ratings
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—USM -4.8—
Total—145.1—
Projected score—UTA 70.2 · USM 74.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadUSM -2.7—
1H total67.9—
1H projected scoreUTA 32.6 · USM 35.3—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Southern Miss has the better starters

Position by position: UT Arlington 0, Southern Miss 1, even 4
UT ArlingtonBetterSouthern Miss
G M. Panoam TR0.9 pts · 0.9 reb · 0.7 ast Not ranked
No call
G J. Gaines-Wyatt TR11.8 pts · 1.5 reb · 2.9 ast Score 59
F T. McDaniels TR12 pts · 6.1 reb · 1 ast Score 68
USMSmall
G I. Taveras15.4 pts · 6.6 reb · 2.2 ast Score 90
F M. Goodman3.2 pts · 2.5 reb · 0.1 ast Score 11
Even
G B. Carruth2.6 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.3 ast Score 6
F B. McGlothin TR0 pts · 0.5 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
No call
F C. Wallace TR12.1 pts · 6.8 reb · 1.7 ast Score 53
F N. Bundalo TR0.5 pts · 0.5 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
No call
F M. Overstreet TR2.4 pts · 2.8 reb · 0.3 ast Score 39
UT ArlingtonBetterSouthern Miss
UTA offense289th of 366 · -8.9
Even
USM defense239th of 366 · -6.3
UTA defense211th of 366 · -5.4
Even
USM offense203rd of 366 · -6.3
Backcourt-0.3 · 1 player
Even
Backcourt+0.4 · 3 players
Frontcourt-0.8 · 4 players
Even
Frontcourt-0.5 · 2 players
Bench+0.0 · 1 player
Even
Bench-0.9 · 1 player
Score, worst to bestUTA betterUSM betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
UT Arlington
Guards
M. Panoam6 min · TRN. Shelby3 min · TRJ. SmithNewT. HankinsNewK. MikalauskasNewJ. ParkerNew
Forwards
T. McDaniels27 min · TRM. Goodman13 minB. McGlothin5 min · TRN. Bundalo3 min · TRT. SimicNewS. HadnotNew
Southern Miss
Guards
J. Gaines-Wyatt27 min · TRI. Taveras27 minB. Carruth12 minB. WestonNewA. IgiedeNewC. CereseNew
Forwards
C. Wallace29 min · TRM. Overstreet10 min · TRM. MontanoNew
Centers
F. Diagne6 minM. BlankNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
UTAUSM
Scoring
67.7 #320Points per game73.9 #197
1.01 #319Points per possession1.05 #242
67.3 #265Pace (possessions)70.1 #113
Shooting
47.2 #332Effective FG%49.0 #289
29.1 #3523-point %28.9 #355
30.7 #3453-point attempt rate28.7 #358
42.5 #24Free throw rate43.2 #18
Possessions
20.7 #354Turnover rate18.4 #290
34.9 #50Offensive rebound rate32.5 #103
10.7 #345Assists per game11.2 #330
Defense
67.8 #29Points allowed74.8 #183
1.01 #30Points allowed per possession1.07 #127
47.5 #29Opponent effective FG%51.4 #177
26.9 #1Opponent 3-point %34.5 #217
18.0 #93Turnovers forced17.8 #109
69.9 #166Defensive rebound rate71.2 #97
7.3 #97Steals per game7.3 #98
3.5 #148Blocks per game3.6 #127
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

UT Arlington

16-14 in 2025-26 overall · 10-10 in conference · United Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Utah Valley65–67
  • Wvs Southern Utah69–63
  • W@ Abilene Chrstn64–57
  • W@ Tarleton St65–60
  • L@ CA Baptist56–68

A week or more of rest.

Southern Miss

17-16 in 2025-26 overall · 12-10 in conference · Sun Belt Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Troy70–78
  • Wvs App State86–73
  • Wvs Texas St81–77
  • Wvs James Madison86–80
  • W@ South Alabama68–55

A week or more of rest.