1. NCAAB
  2. Mon, Nov 9
  3. HOW @ PENN
NCAAB · Mon, Nov 9

Howard Bison at Pennsylvania Quakers

The Palestra · at Penn
#197HOWHoward
@
#137PENNPenn
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
HOWThis seasonPENN
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects PENN 78–71 · win probability PENN 73%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 148.3
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: PENN has more of the edges

HOW 2, PENN 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Schedule so far
HOW has played the 348th-hardest schedule, PENN the 126th. A record against a soft schedule means less
HOWSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: HOW 50.9 and allows 48.7; PENN 50.4 and allows 52.1
HOWSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: HOW 35.8%, PENN 30.0%. Defensive: HOW 68.6%, PENN 68.7%
PENNSmall
PENN offense vs HOW defense
Offense 138th of 366 against a defense 206th, on the model’s ratings
PENNSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: HOW 19.3%, PENN 15.4%. Forced: HOW 20.7%, PENN 17.3%
PENNSmall
HOW offense vs PENN defense
Offense 196th of 366 against a defense 142nd, on the model’s ratings
PENNSmall
Home court
PENN at home. This season: PENN 0-0 at home, HOW 0-0 away
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: HOW 43.5, PENN 33.9. Allowed: HOW 38.4, PENN 27.5
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: HOW 76%, PENN 83%. Transfers in: HOW 2, PENN 1. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Three-pointers
HOW hits 35.8% and allows 31.4%; PENN hits 38.3% and allows 32.2%. Threes are 34.7% and 35.4% of their shots
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: HOW plays 69.5 a game (144th fastest), PENN 69.3 (158th). Faster games mean more points
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—PENN -7.1—
Total—148.3—
Projected score—HOW 70.6 · PENN 77.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadPENN -4.1—
1H total69.4—
1H projected scoreHOW 32.6 · PENN 36.7—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Howard has the better starters

Position by position: Howard 3, Penn 1, even 1
HowardBetterPenn
G C. Gillus10.8 pts · 4.4 reb · 4.7 ast Score 52
Even
G M. Zanoni12.1 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.7 ast Score 48
G C. Taylor17.2 pts · 6.4 reb · 3 ast Score 89
HOWSmall
G A. Levine8.5 pts · 3.2 reb · 3.9 ast Score 61
G A. Cotton8.3 pts · 2.7 reb · 1.1 ast Score 15
PENNBig
F T. Power16.8 pts · 7.6 reb · 2.4 ast Score 81
G O. Okojie10.3 pts · 4 reb · 1.6 ast Score 61
HOWSmall
F A. Gerhart5.2 pts · 4.6 reb · 1 ast Score 36
C G. Kocevar TR3.2 pts · 2.2 reb · 0.6 ast Score 31
HOWSmall
F L. Lueth3.2 pts · 2.9 reb · 0.6 ast Score 8
HowardBetterPenn
HOW offense196th of 366 · -6.1
PENNSmall
PENN defense142nd of 366 · -3.1
HOW defense206th of 366 · -5.2
PENNSmall
PENN offense138th of 366 · -4.1
Backcourt-1.0 · 4 players
Even
Backcourt-0.8 · 2 players
Frontcourt-0.5 · 1 player
Even
Frontcourt-0.4 · 3 players
Bench-3.1 · 5 players
PENNSmall
Bench-1.5 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestHOW betterPENN betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Howard
Guards
C. Gillus34 minC. Taylor32 minA. Cotton27 minO. Okojie26 minI. Brown10 minJ. Johnson6 min
Forwards
C. Robins6 minJ. Johnson3 minJ. LawsonNewD. HarrisNew
Centers
G. Kocevar13 min · TRJ. Brown6 min · TR
Penn
Guards
M. Zanoni29 minA. Levine25 minS. Mohammed16 min · TRJ. Jones14 minN. Polonowski6 minP. Kamin3 min
Forwards
T. Power36 minA. Gerhart20 minL. Lueth17 minD. Scantlebury15 minW. Kruse3 minF. BillyNew
Centers
M. PereiraNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
HOWPENN
Scoring
75.5 #155Points per game74.4 #181
1.09 #162Points per possession1.08 #196
69.5 #144Pace (possessions)69.3 #158
Shooting
50.9 #198Effective FG%50.4 #223
35.8 #683-point %38.3 #13
34.7 #2833-point attempt rate35.4 #264
43.5 #17Free throw rate33.9 #212
Possessions
19.3 #331Turnover rate15.4 #93
35.8 #28Offensive rebound rate30.0 #200
15.2 #78Assists per game13.7 #171
Defense
69.3 #51Points allowed74.5 #173
1.00 #24Points allowed per possession1.07 #137
48.7 #53Opponent effective FG%52.1 #218
31.4 #41Opponent 3-point %32.2 #73
20.7 #13Turnovers forced17.3 #132
68.6 #223Defensive rebound rate68.7 #220
8.3 #29Steals per game6.5 #184
3.7 #113Blocks per game3.1 #199
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Howard

20-11 in 2025-26 overall · 13-3 in conference · Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Michigan80–101
  • Wvs UMBC86–83
  • Wvs NC Central70–63
  • Wvs SC State78–61
  • W@ Norfolk St84–76

A week or more of rest.

Penn

17-12 in 2025-26 overall · 11-5 in conference · Ivy League

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Illinois70–105
  • Wvs Yale88–84
  • Wvs Harvard62–60
  • W@ Brown82–61
  • Wvs Harvard64–61

A week or more of rest.