1. NCAAB
  2. Wed, Nov 11
  3. PENN @ NAVY
NCAAB · Wed, Nov 11

Pennsylvania Quakers at Navy Midshipmen

Alumni Hall (Navy) · at Navy
#137PENNPenn
@
#199NAVYNavy
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
PENNThis seasonNAVY
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects PENN 73–71 · win probability PENN 59%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 144.1
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: NAVY has more of the edges

PENN 2, NAVY 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Schedule so far
PENN has played the 126th-hardest schedule, NAVY the 311th. A record against a soft schedule means less
NAVYBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: PENN 50.4 and allows 52.1; NAVY 53.1 and allows 48.3
PENNBig
NAVY offense vs PENN defense
Offense 270th of 366 against a defense 142nd, on the model’s ratings
NAVYBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: PENN 30.0%, NAVY 31.9%. Defensive: PENN 68.7%, NAVY 72.6%
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: PENN plays 69.3 a game (158th fastest), NAVY 66.0 (316th). Faster games mean more points
NAVYSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: PENN 33.9, NAVY 38.8. Allowed: PENN 27.5, NAVY 26.0
PENNSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: PENN 83%, NAVY 46%. Transfers in: PENN 1, NAVY 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
NAVYSmall
Home court
NAVY at home. This season: NAVY 0-0 at home, PENN 0-0 away
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: PENN 15.4%, NAVY 16.8%. Forced: PENN 17.3%, NAVY 18.3%
Even
Three-pointers
PENN hits 38.3% and allows 32.2%; NAVY hits 35.9% and allows 30.0%. Threes are 35.4% and 33.1% of their shots
Even
PENN offense vs NAVY defense
Offense 138th of 366 against a defense 145th, on the model’s ratings
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—PENN -2.5—
Total—144.1—
Projected score—PENN 73.3 · NAVY 70.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadPENN -1.6—
1H total67.4—
1H projected scorePENN 34.5 · NAVY 32.9—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Penn has the better starters

Position by position: Penn 2, Navy 0, even 3
PennBetterNavy
G M. Zanoni12.1 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.7 ast Score 48
Even
G J. Kim10 pts · 3.1 reb · 1.8 ast Score 35
G A. Levine8.5 pts · 3.2 reb · 3.9 ast Score 61
PENNBig
G J. Pennick7.5 pts · 2.1 reb · 1.4 ast Score 12
F T. Power16.8 pts · 7.6 reb · 2.4 ast Score 81
PENNBig
G C. Cole6 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.6 ast Score 41
F A. Gerhart5.2 pts · 4.6 reb · 1 ast Score 36
No call
G D. Burnett1.4 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
F L. Lueth3.2 pts · 2.9 reb · 0.6 ast Score 8
No call
G N. Howard1.6 pts · 0.7 reb · 0.6 ast Not ranked
PennBetterNavy
PENN offense138th of 366 · -4.1
Even
NAVY defense145th of 366 · -3.1
PENN defense142nd of 366 · -3.1
PENNBig
NAVY offense270th of 366 · -8.2
Backcourt-0.8 · 2 players
PENNBig
Backcourt-5.8 · 5 players
Frontcourt-0.4 · 3 players
No call
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
Bench-1.5 · 5 players
NAVYSmall
Bench-0.2 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestPENN betterNAVY betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Penn
Guards
M. Zanoni29 minA. Levine25 minS. Mohammed16 min · TRJ. Jones14 minN. Polonowski6 minP. Kamin3 min
Forwards
T. Power36 minA. Gerhart20 minL. Lueth17 minD. Scantlebury15 minW. Kruse3 minF. BillyNew
Centers
M. PereiraNew
Navy
Guards
J. Kim31 minJ. Pennick25 minC. Cole19 minD. Burnett6 minN. Howard3 minJ. Gabbidon1 min
Forwards
C. Jackson2 minJ. Ashley2 minO. Gray2 minT. RajiNewC. PollockNewS. GriffinNew
Centers
C. CraneNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
PENNNAVY
Scoring
74.4 #181Points per game74.1 #194
1.08 #196Points per possession1.12 #97
69.3 #158Pace (possessions)66.0 #316
Shooting
50.4 #223Effective FG%53.1 #100
38.3 #133-point %35.9 #64
35.4 #2643-point attempt rate33.1 #314
33.9 #212Free throw rate38.8 #82
Possessions
15.4 #93Turnover rate16.8 #190
30.0 #200Offensive rebound rate31.9 #126
13.7 #171Assists per game15.8 #52
Defense
74.5 #173Points allowed65.6 #10
1.07 #137Points allowed per possession1.00 #23
52.1 #218Opponent effective FG%48.3 #42
32.2 #73Opponent 3-point %30.0 #7
17.3 #132Turnovers forced18.3 #84
68.7 #220Defensive rebound rate72.6 #49
6.5 #184Steals per game7.5 #84
3.1 #199Blocks per game3.3 #185
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Penn

17-12 in 2025-26 overall · 11-5 in conference · Ivy League

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Illinois70–105
  • Wvs Yale88–84
  • Wvs Harvard62–60
  • W@ Brown82–61
  • Wvs Harvard64–61

A week or more of rest.

Navy

24-8 in 2025-26 overall · 18-2 in conference · Patriot League

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Wake Forest72–82
  • Lvs Boston U72–73
  • Wvs Bucknell74–69
  • Wvs Colgate85–69
  • W@ Loyola MD78–51

A week or more of rest.