1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Nov 14
  3. HAMP @ NAVY
NCAAB · Sat, Nov 14

Hampton Pirates at Navy Midshipmen

Alumni Hall (Navy) · at Navy
#159HAMPHampton
@
#199NAVYNavy
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
HAMPThis seasonNAVY
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects NAVY 71–71 · win probability NAVY 51%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 141.8
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: NAVY has more of the edges

HAMP 1, NAVY 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
NAVYBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: HAMP 45.7 and allows 52.0; NAVY 53.1 and allows 48.3
NAVYBig
Three-pointers
HAMP hits 28.8% and allows 32.1%; NAVY hits 35.9% and allows 30.0%. Threes are 37.0% and 33.1% of their shots
NAVYBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: HAMP 39.2, NAVY 38.8. Allowed: HAMP 46.5, NAVY 26.0
HAMPBig
NAVY offense vs HAMP defense
Offense 270th of 366 against a defense 153rd, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
HAMP has played the 217th-hardest schedule, NAVY the 311th. A record against a soft schedule means less
NAVYSmall
Home court
NAVY at home. This season: NAVY 0-0 at home, HAMP 0-0 away
NAVYSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: HAMP 18%, NAVY 46%. Transfers in: HAMP 6, NAVY 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
HAMP offense vs NAVY defense
Offense 186th of 366 against a defense 145th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: HAMP 32.9%, NAVY 31.9%. Defensive: HAMP 70.0%, NAVY 72.6%
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: HAMP 17.1%, NAVY 16.8%. Forced: HAMP 17.2%, NAVY 18.3%
Context
Tempo
About 66 possessions: HAMP plays 66.5 a game (295th fastest), NAVY 66.0 (316th). Faster games mean more points
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—NAVY -0.2—
Total—141.8—
Projected score—HAMP 70.8 · NAVY 71

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadPK—
1H total66.4—
1H projected scoreHAMP 33.2 · NAVY 33.2—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Hampton has the better starters

Position by position: Hampton 3, Navy 0, even 2
HamptonBetterNavy
G J. Mitchell TR14.5 pts · 4.9 reb · 0.9 ast Score 56
HAMPSmall
G J. Kim10 pts · 3.1 reb · 1.8 ast Score 35
G S. Hubbard TR16.5 pts · 2.9 reb · 2.1 ast Score 70
HAMPBig
G J. Pennick7.5 pts · 2.1 reb · 1.4 ast Score 12
G A. Davis TR9.3 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.7 ast Score 59
HAMPSmall
G C. Cole6 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.6 ast Score 41
F M. Frazier TR12 pts · 7.1 reb · 0.9 ast Score 77
No call
G D. Burnett1.4 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
F C. Robinson TR8.2 pts · 4 reb · 1.3 ast Score 25
No call
G N. Howard1.6 pts · 0.7 reb · 0.6 ast Not ranked
HamptonBetterNavy
HAMP offense186th of 366 · -5.7
Even
NAVY defense145th of 366 · -3.1
HAMP defense153rd of 366 · -3.4
HAMPSmall
NAVY offense270th of 366 · -8.2
Backcourt+0.1 · 3 players
HAMPBig
Backcourt-5.8 · 5 players
Frontcourt-0.1 · 2 players
No call
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
Bench-2.1 · 5 players
NAVYSmall
Bench-0.2 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestHAMP betterNAVY betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Hampton
Guards
J. Mitchell33 min · TRS. Hubbard31 min · TRA. Davis24 min · TRE. Strothers19 minT. Jackson17 min · TRA. Haskins10 min
Forwards
M. Frazier29 min · TRC. Robinson26 min · TRP. Da CruzNewW. PrestonNewZ. IbekweNewS. TabeNew
Navy
Guards
J. Kim31 minJ. Pennick25 minC. Cole19 minD. Burnett6 minN. Howard3 minJ. Gabbidon1 min
Forwards
C. Jackson2 minJ. Ashley2 minO. Gray2 minT. RajiNewC. PollockNewS. GriffinNew
Centers
C. CraneNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
HAMPNAVY
Scoring
68.0 #312Points per game74.1 #194
1.02 #301Points per possession1.12 #97
66.5 #295Pace (possessions)66.0 #316
Shooting
45.7 #356Effective FG%53.1 #100
28.8 #3573-point %35.9 #64
37.0 #2293-point attempt rate33.1 #314
39.2 #73Free throw rate38.8 #82
Possessions
17.1 #205Turnover rate16.8 #190
32.9 #90Offensive rebound rate31.9 #126
11.2 #329Assists per game15.8 #52
Defense
72.1 #108Points allowed65.6 #10
1.08 #176Points allowed per possession1.00 #23
52.0 #212Opponent effective FG%48.3 #42
32.1 #65Opponent 3-point %30.0 #7
17.2 #137Turnovers forced18.3 #84
70.0 #165Defensive rebound rate72.6 #49
6.3 #207Steals per game7.5 #84
3.0 #232Blocks per game3.3 #185
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Hampton

11-19 in 2025-26 overall · 7-12 in conference · Coastal Athletic Association

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Towson68–74
  • L@ William & Mary85–94
  • Wvs Northeastern76–65
  • Lvs Charleston71–85
  • L@ Stony Brook72–79

A week or more of rest.

Navy

24-8 in 2025-26 overall · 18-2 in conference · Patriot League

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Wake Forest72–82
  • Lvs Boston U72–73
  • Wvs Bucknell74–69
  • Wvs Colgate85–69
  • W@ Loyola MD78–51

A week or more of rest.