1. NCAAB
  2. Wed, Nov 18
  3. NAVY @ GTWN
NCAAB · Wed, Nov 18

Navy Midshipmen at Georgetown Hoyas

Capital One Arena · at Georgetown
#199NAVYNavy
@
#64GTWNGeorgetown
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
NAVYThis seasonGTWN
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects GTWN 82–62 · win probability GTWN 96%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 143.6
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: NAVY has more of the edges

NAVY 4, GTWN 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Schedule so far
NAVY has played the 311th-hardest schedule, GTWN the 47th. A record against a soft schedule means less
GTWNBig
NAVY offense vs GTWN defense
Offense 270th of 366 against a defense 46th, on the model’s ratings
NAVYBig
Three-pointers
NAVY hits 35.9% and allows 30.0%; GTWN hits 31.8% and allows 33.3%. Threes are 33.1% and 35.2% of their shots
NAVYSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: NAVY 53.1 and allows 48.3; GTWN 49.6 and allows 50.0
NAVYSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: NAVY 38.8, GTWN 37.3. Allowed: NAVY 26.0, GTWN 33.9
NAVYSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: NAVY 31.9%, GTWN 32.5%. Defensive: NAVY 72.6%, GTWN 68.5%
GTWNSmall
GTWN offense vs NAVY defense
Offense 75th of 366 against a defense 145th, on the model’s ratings
GTWNSmall
Home court
GTWN at home. This season: GTWN 0-0 at home, NAVY 0-0 away
Context
Tempo
About 67 possessions: NAVY plays 66.0 a game (316th fastest), GTWN 67.8 (238th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: NAVY 16.8%, GTWN 15.8%. Forced: NAVY 18.3%, GTWN 16.2%
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: NAVY 46%, GTWN 38%. Transfers in: NAVY 0, GTWN 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—GTWN -19.6—
Total—143.6—
Projected score—NAVY 62 · GTWN 81.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadGTWN -11.5—
1H total67.2—
1H projected scoreNAVY 27.8 · GTWN 39.4—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Georgetown has the better starters

Position by position: Navy 0, Georgetown 3, even 2
NavyBetterGeorgetown
G J. Kim10 pts · 3.1 reb · 1.8 ast Score 35
GTWNBig
G V. Miller TR10.8 pts · 2.7 reb · 1.8 ast Score 74
G J. Pennick7.5 pts · 2.1 reb · 1.4 ast Score 12
GTWNBig
F C. Williams8.8 pts · 5.1 reb · 1.5 ast Score 57
G C. Cole6 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.6 ast Score 41
GTWNBig
F J. Parker TR9.8 pts · 6.1 reb · 1.1 ast Score 79
G D. Burnett1.4 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
No call
C V. Iwuchukwu11.6 pts · 6.1 reb · 0.5 ast Score 89
G N. Howard1.6 pts · 0.7 reb · 0.6 ast Not ranked
No call
C C. Machot TR8.8 pts · 5.4 reb · 0.2 ast Score 78
NavyBetterGeorgetown
NAVY offense270th of 366 · -8.2
GTWNBig
GTWN defense46th of 366 · +2.3
NAVY defense145th of 366 · -3.1
GTWNSmall
GTWN offense75th of 366 · +1.3
Backcourt-5.8 · 5 players
GTWNBig
Backcourt+0.7 · 1 player
FrontcourtNo numbers yet
No call
Frontcourt+6.5 · 4 players
Bench-0.2 · 5 players
GTWNSmall
Bench+1.4 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestNAVY betterGTWN betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Navy
Guards
J. Kim31 minJ. Pennick25 minC. Cole19 minD. Burnett6 minN. Howard3 minJ. Gabbidon1 min
Forwards
C. Jackson2 minJ. Ashley2 minO. Gray2 minT. RajiNewC. PollockNewS. GriffinNew
Centers
C. CraneNew
Georgetown
Guards
V. Miller26 min · TRJ. Lowe19 min · TRE. Jackson18 min · TRK. Mulready17 minM. Moses1 minM. Van Raaphorst1 min
Forwards
C. Williams30 minJ. Parker22 min · TRJ. CaldwellNewP. PastreNew
Centers
V. Iwuchukwu23 minC. Machot20 min · TRS. Diouf4 min
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
NAVYGTWN
Scoring
74.1 #194Points per game73.6 #215
1.12 #97Points per possession1.09 #165
66.0 #316Pace (possessions)67.8 #238
Shooting
53.1 #100Effective FG%49.6 #257
35.9 #643-point %31.8 #285
33.1 #3143-point attempt rate35.2 #271
38.8 #82Free throw rate37.3 #121
Possessions
16.8 #190Turnover rate15.8 #120
31.9 #126Offensive rebound rate32.5 #107
15.8 #52Assists per game14.8 #101
Defense
65.6 #10Points allowed72.9 #130
1.00 #23Points allowed per possession1.08 #147
48.3 #42Opponent effective FG%50.0 #96
30.0 #7Opponent 3-point %33.3 #139
18.3 #84Turnovers forced16.2 #211
72.6 #49Defensive rebound rate68.5 #228
7.5 #84Steals per game6.5 #182
3.3 #185Blocks per game3.6 #130
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Navy

24-8 in 2025-26 overall · 18-2 in conference · Patriot League

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Wake Forest72–82
  • Lvs Boston U72–73
  • Wvs Bucknell74–69
  • Wvs Colgate85–69
  • W@ Loyola MD78–51

A week or more of rest.

Georgetown

16-18 in 2025-26 overall · 8-15 in conference · Big East Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs UConn51–67
  • Wvs Villanova78–64
  • Wvs DePaul63–56
  • Wvs Providence80–79
  • L@ St John's69–72

A week or more of rest.