IU Indianapolis Jaguars at Penn State Nittany Lions: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 18, 6:30 PM ETBryce Jordan Center · at Penn State

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: IU Indy and Penn State
IUIN	This season	PSU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects PSU 92–69 · win probability PSU 98%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 160.4

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: PSU has more of the edges

IUIN 0, PSU 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

PSUBig

PSU offense vs IUIN defense

Offense 70th of 366 against a defense 364th, on the model’s ratings

PSUBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: IUIN 21.7, PSU 33.8. Allowed: IUIN 46.6, PSU 27.5

Context

Schedule so far

IUIN has played the 284th-hardest schedule, PSU the 63rd. A record against a soft schedule means less

PSUBig

IUIN offense vs PSU defense

Offense 249th of 366 against a defense 101st, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 71 possessions: IUIN plays 75.3 a game (4th fastest), PSU 67.5 (255th). Faster games mean more points

PSUSmall

Home court

PSU at home. This season: PSU 0-0 at home, IUIN 0-0 away

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: IUIN 15.8%, PSU 15.6%. Forced: IUIN 19.2%, PSU 17.7%

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: IUIN 28.7%, PSU 25.9%. Defensive: IUIN 64.5%, PSU 68.8%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: IUIN 14%, PSU 27%. Transfers in: IUIN 3, PSU 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: IUIN 52.2 and allows 58.2; PSU 53.0 and allows 58.4

Even

Three-pointers

IUIN hits 32.4% and allows 38.5%; PSU hits 32.4% and allows 38.8%. Threes are 42.1% and 38.0% of their shots

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	PSU -23.4	—
Total	—	160.4	—
Projected score	—	IUIN 68.5 · PSU 91.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	PSU -13.8	—
1H total	74.9	—
1H projected score	IUIN 30.5 · PSU 44.4	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
IUIN WLLLL	12-18	40%	7-10	—
PSU LWLLL	12-20	38%	7-10	—

Venue/role: IUIN away; PSU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
IUIN OUUOO	13-17	43%	5-25
PSU OUOUU	18-14	56%	12-20

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
IUIN	1-9 10%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
PSU	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

IU Indy

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 22	vs UMES	No recent meeting
Nov 23	vs W&M	No recent meeting
Nov 29	@ TLSA	No recent meeting

Penn State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 25	vs MEM	No recent meeting
Dec 1	vs UALB	No recent meeting
Dec 8	vs NEB	L64–87LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

IU Indy

30 games played

Straight up

5-25

17% wins

Against the spread

12-18

40% covers · avg −2.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-17

43% overs · avg −0.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-2517%

L L L W L L L W L L L L L L L L L W L W L L W L L L L L L L

7 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

12-1840%

W L L W L L L W L L L W L W W L L W L W L W W L W W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

13-1743%

O U U U O U O U U U U U O U U U O O U O U O U O O O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@OSU	L 102-118	+33.5	W +17.5	172.5	O 220
Nov 6	vsLIU	L 90-94	-4.5	L −8.5	185.5	U 184
Nov 8	@BTLR	L 80-112	+20.5	L −11.5	192.5	U 192
Nov 14	@EMU	W 90-83	+4.5	W +11.5	186.5	U 173
Nov 18	@CHSO	L 91-103	-1.5	L −13.5	188.5	O 194
Nov 21	vsALST	L 80-101	-2.5	L −23.5	181.5	U 181
Nov 23	@AF	L 85-98	+3.5	L −9.5	175.5	O 183
Nov 29	vsMORE	W 85-80	-3.5	W +1.5	181.5	U 165
Dec 3	@DETM	L 78-92	+3.5	L −10.5	180.5	U 170
Dec 6	vsYSU	L 55-78	+6.5	L −16.5	171.5	U 133
Dec 11	vsGB	L 75-85	-3.5	L −13.5	165.5	U 160
Dec 22	@GCU	L 78-91	+23.5	W +10.5	169.5	U 169
Dec 29	@CLE	L 86-99	+1.5	L −11.5	172.5	O 185
Jan 1	@NKU	L 72-81	+13.5	W +4.5	176.5	U 153
Jan 4	vsWRST	L 77-81	+8.5	W +4.5	162.5	U 158
Jan 9	@GB	L 59-75	+6.5	L −9.5	156.5	U 134
Jan 11	@MILW	L 83-95	+8.5	L −3.5	165.5	O 178
Jan 15	vsRMU	W 96-93	+5.5	W +8.5	160.5	O 189
Jan 17	vsDETM	L 77-80	-1.5	L −4.5	169.5	U 157
Jan 21	@OAK	W 103-85	+14.5	W +32.5	176.5	O 188
Jan 28	@RMU	L 58-74	+8.5	L −7.5	162.5	U 132
Jan 30	@YSU	L 76-85	+10.5	W +1.5	153.5	O 161
Feb 7	vsCLE	W 82-74	-2.5	W +5.5	169.5	U 156
Feb 10	vsMILW	L 88-92	+2.5	L −1.5	158.5	O 180
Feb 12	vsNKU	L 81-84	+5.5	W +2.5	164.5	O 165
Feb 15	@PFW	L 78-83	+7.5	W +2.5	159.5	O 161
Feb 19	@WRST	L 73-85	+11.5	L −0.5	160.5	U 158
Feb 25	vsOAK	L 74-86	+5.5	L −6.5	169.5	U 160
Feb 28	vsPFW	L 81-87	+1.5	L −4.5	163.5	O 168
Mar 2	@CLE	L 93-101	-2.5	L −10.5	169.5	O 194

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

OSU

L 102-118

+17.5

LIU

L 90-94

−8.5

BTLR

L 80-112

−11.5

EMU

W 90-83

+11.5

CHSO

L 91-103

−13.5

ALST

L 80-101

−23.5

L 85-98

−9.5

W 85-80

+1.5

DETM

L 78-92

−10.5

YSU

L 55-78

−16.5

L 75-85

−13.5

GCU

L 78-91

+10.5

CLE

L 86-99

−11.5

NKU

L 72-81

+4.5

WRST

L 77-81

+4.5

L 59-75

−9.5

MILW

L 83-95

−3.5

RMU

W 96-93

+8.5

DETM

L 77-80

−4.5

OAK

W 103-85

+32.5

RMU

L 58-74

−7.5

YSU

L 76-85

+1.5

CLE

W 82-74

+5.5

MILW

L 88-92

−1.5

NKU

L 81-84

+2.5

PFW

L 78-83

+2.5

WRST

L 73-85

−0.5

OAK

L 74-86

−6.5

PFW

L 81-87

−4.5

CLE

L 93-101

−10.5

covered 12didn’t cover 18avg −2.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

OSU

L 102-118

+47.5

LIU

L 90-94

−1.5

BTLR

L 80-112

−0.5

EMU

W 90-83

−13.5

CHSO

L 91-103

+5.5

ALST

L 80-101

−0.5

L 85-98

+7.5

W 85-80

−16.5

DETM

L 78-92

−10.5

YSU

L 55-78

−38.5

L 75-85

−5.5

GCU

L 78-91

−0.5

CLE

L 86-99

+12.5

NKU

L 72-81

−23.5

WRST

L 77-81

−4.5

L 59-75

−22.5

MILW

L 83-95

+12.5

RMU

W 96-93

+28.5

DETM

L 77-80

−12.5

OAK

W 103-85

+11.5

RMU

L 58-74

−30.5

YSU

L 76-85

+7.5

CLE

W 82-74

−13.5

MILW

L 88-92

+21.5

NKU

L 81-84

+0.5

PFW

L 78-83

+1.5

WRST

L 73-85

−2.5

OAK

L 74-86

−9.5

PFW

L 81-87

+4.5

CLE

L 93-101

+24.5

over 13under 17avg −0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Penn State

32 games played

Straight up

12-20

38% wins

Against the spread

12-20

38% covers · avg −3.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

18-14

56% overs · avg +1.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

12-2038%

W W W W W L W W W L L L W L L L L L L L L W L L W L L L W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

12-2038%

L W L W L L L W L L W L L W W W L L L W L W L W W L L L W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

18-1456%

U U U O O U O U O O O U O U U O U O O O O O O U U O O O U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsFAIR	W 76-68	-15.5	L −7.5	151.5	U 144
Nov 8	@NHVN	W 87-43	-18.5	W +25.5	143.5	U 130
Nov 11	vsNAVY	W 80-71	-11.5	L −2.5	155.5	U 151
Nov 15	vsLAS	W 83-69	-8.5	W +5.5	145.5	O 152
Nov 19	vsHARV	W 84-80	-12.5	L −8.5	142.5	O 164
Nov 22	vsPROV	L 65-77	+3.5	L −8.5	165.5	U 142
Nov 25	vsBU	W 96-87	-14.5	L −5.5	142.5	O 183
Nov 29	vsSHU	W 90-59	-14.5	W +16.5	160.5	U 149
Dec 2	vsCAM	W 87-76	-14.5	L −3.5	154.5	O 163
Dec 9	@IU	L 72-113	+14.5	L −26.5	152.5	O 185
Dec 13	vsMSU	L 72-76	+12.5	W +8.5	145.5	O 148
Dec 21	vsPITT	L 46-80	-1.5	L −35.5	146.5	U 126
Dec 29	vsNCCU	W 90-67	-23.5	L −0.5	150.5	O 157
Jan 3	vsILL	L 65-73	+14.5	W +6.5	156.5	U 138
Jan 6	vsMICH	L 72-74	+24.5	W +22.5	169.5	U 146
Jan 10	@PUR	L 85-93	+22.5	W +14.5	152.5	O 178
Jan 14	vsUCLA	L 60-71	+4.5	L −6.5	148.5	U 131
Jan 18	@MD	L 73-96	+1.5	L −21.5	148.5	O 169
Jan 22	vsWIS	L 71-98	+5.5	L −21.5	157.5	O 169
Jan 26	@OSU	L 78-84	+11.5	W +5.5	153.5	O 162
Jan 29	@NU	L 73-94	+7.5	L −13.5	148.5	O 167
Feb 1	vsMINN	W 77-75	+2.5	W +4.5	142.5	O 152
Feb 5	@MICH	L 69-110	+26.5	L −14.5	161.5	O 179
Feb 8	vsUSC	L 75-77	+3.5	W +1.5	157.5	U 152
Feb 11	@WASH	W 63-60	+12.5	W +15.5	153.5	U 123
Feb 14	@ORE	L 72-83	+6.5	L −4.5	145.5	O 155
Feb 18	vsRUTG	L 72-85	-4.5	L −17.5	148.5	O 157
Feb 21	@NEB	L 64-87	+17.5	L −5.5	147.5	O 151
Feb 28	vsIOWA	W 71-69	+9.5	W +11.5	143.5	U 140
Mar 4	vsOSU	L 62-94	+7.5	L −24.5	152.5	O 156
Mar 8	@RUTG	L 62-74	+4.5	L −7.5	149.5	U 136
Mar 10	vsNU	L 66-76	+4.5	L −5.5	143.5	U 142

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

FAIR

W 76-68

−7.5

NHVN

W 87-43

+25.5

NAVY

W 80-71

−2.5

LAS

W 83-69

+5.5

HARV

W 84-80

−8.5

PROV

L 65-77

−8.5

W 96-87

−5.5

SHU

W 90-59

+16.5

CAM

W 87-76

−3.5

L 72-113

−26.5

MSU

L 72-76

+8.5

PITT

L 46-80

−35.5

NCCU

W 90-67

−0.5

ILL

L 65-73

+6.5

MICH

L 72-74

+22.5

PUR

L 85-93

+14.5

UCLA

L 60-71

−6.5

L 73-96

−21.5

WIS

L 71-98

−21.5

OSU

L 78-84

+5.5

L 73-94

−13.5

MINN

W 77-75

+4.5

MICH

L 69-110

−14.5

USC

L 75-77

+1.5

WASH

W 63-60

+15.5

ORE

L 72-83

−4.5

RUTG

L 72-85

−17.5

NEB

L 64-87

−5.5

IOWA

W 71-69

+11.5

OSU

L 62-94

−24.5

RUTG

L 62-74

−7.5

L 66-76

−5.5

covered 12didn’t cover 20avg −3.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

FAIR

W 76-68

−7.5

NHVN

W 87-43

−13.5

NAVY

W 80-71

−4.5

LAS

W 83-69

+6.5

HARV

W 84-80

+21.5

PROV

L 65-77

−23.5

W 96-87

+40.5

SHU

W 90-59

−11.5

CAM

W 87-76

+8.5

L 72-113

+32.5

MSU

L 72-76

+2.5

PITT

L 46-80

−20.5

NCCU

W 90-67

+6.5

ILL

L 65-73

−18.5

MICH

L 72-74

−23.5

PUR

L 85-93

+25.5

UCLA

L 60-71

−17.5

L 73-96

+20.5

WIS

L 71-98

+11.5

OSU

L 78-84

+8.5

L 73-94

+18.5

MINN

W 77-75

+9.5

MICH

L 69-110

+17.5

USC

L 75-77

−5.5

WASH

W 63-60

−30.5

ORE

L 72-83

+9.5

RUTG

L 72-85

+8.5

NEB

L 64-87

+3.5

IOWA

W 71-69

−3.5

OSU

L 62-94

+3.5

RUTG

L 62-74

−13.5

L 66-76

−1.5

over 18under 14avg +1.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Penn State has the better starters

Position by position: IU Indy 1, Penn State 4, even 0

IU IndyBetterPenn State

G B. Smith TR8.2 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 18

PSUSmall

G D. Bowen TR11.1 pts · 3.1 reb · 4.9 ast Score 45

G G. Etchison TR9 pts · 1.3 reb · 2.3 ast Score 93

IUINBig

G J. Rodgers TR11 pts · 2.2 reb · 6.9 ast Score 49

G J. Clarke TR3.3 pts · 1.5 reb · 1.3 ast Score 34

PSUSmall

F B. Byers TR14.3 pts · 4.1 reb · 0.6 ast Score 55

F K. Tinsley7.7 pts · 2.4 reb · 0.9 ast Score 17

PSUBig

F J. Reed11.5 pts · 4.1 reb · 1 ast Score 82

F R. Hagy2.1 pts · 1.8 reb · 0.7 ast Score 2

PSUBig

F I. Juric10.2 pts · 5.3 reb · 0.8 ast Score 61

IU IndyBetterPenn State

IUIN offense249th of 366 · -7.5

PSUBig

PSU defense101st of 366 · -0.8

IUIN defense364th of 366 · -12.3

PSUBig

PSU offense70th of 366 · +1.7

Backcourt-1.6 · 3 players

Even

Backcourt-1.9 · 2 players

Frontcourt-3.2 · 2 players

PSUBig

Frontcourt+2.2 · 3 players

BenchNo numbers yet

No call

Bench+2.1 · 2 players

Score, worst to bestIUIN betterPSU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

IU Indy

Guards

B. Smith24 min · TRG. Etchison14 min · TRJ. Clarke13 min · TRM. Pastorcic-StraunNewP. HeissNewT. DrexlerNew

Forwards

K. Tinsley18 minR. Hagy11 minP. IdiaruNewA. ArnettNewM. StackhouseNew

Penn State

Guards

D. Bowen35 min · TRJ. Rodgers30 min · TRR. Blums23 min · TRT. AllardNewR. GrodinNewA. GemaoNew

Forwards

B. Byers32 min · TRJ. Reed28 minI. Juric26 minT. Oboh22 min · TRR. PrkacinNewF. WibautNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

IUIN80.9 #49

PSU73.7 #211

Points per possession

IUIN1.07 #200

PSU1.09 #148

Pace (possessions)

IUIN75.3 #4

PSU67.5 #255

Shooting

Effective FG%

IUIN52.2 #136

PSU53.0 #102

3-point %

IUIN32.4 #258

PSU32.4 #263

3-point attempt rate

IUIN42.1 #134

PSU38.0 #214

Free throw rate

IUIN21.7 #365

PSU33.8 #219

Possessions

Turnover rate

IUIN15.8 #127

PSU15.6 #113

Offensive rebound rate

IUIN28.7 #243

PSU25.9 #325

Assists per game

IUIN18.9 #3

PSU12.7 #238

Defense

Points allowed

IUIN89.2 #364

PSU79.3 #308

Points allowed per possession

IUIN1.19 #353

PSU1.17 #345

Opponent effective FG%

IUIN58.2 #362

PSU58.4 #363

Opponent 3-point %

IUIN38.5 #361

PSU38.8 #363

Turnovers forced

IUIN19.2 #41

PSU17.7 #115

Defensive rebound rate

IUIN64.5 #348

PSU68.8 #210

Steals per game

IUIN8.0 #39

PSU6.9 #132

Blocks per game

IUIN2.9 #243

PSU1.7 #357

IUIN		PSU
Scoring
80.9 #49	Points per game	73.7 #211
1.07 #200	Points per possession	1.09 #148
75.3 #4	Pace (possessions)	67.5 #255
Shooting
52.2 #136	Effective FG%	53.0 #102
32.4 #258	3-point %	32.4 #263
42.1 #134	3-point attempt rate	38.0 #214
21.7 #365	Free throw rate	33.8 #219
Possessions
15.8 #127	Turnover rate	15.6 #113
28.7 #243	Offensive rebound rate	25.9 #325
18.9 #3	Assists per game	12.7 #238
Defense
89.2 #364	Points allowed	79.3 #308
1.19 #353	Points allowed per possession	1.17 #345
58.2 #362	Opponent effective FG%	58.4 #363
38.5 #361	Opponent 3-point %	38.8 #363
19.2 #41	Turnovers forced	17.7 #115
64.5 #348	Defensive rebound rate	68.8 #210
8.0 #39	Steals per game	6.9 #132
2.9 #243	Blocks per game	1.7 #357

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

IU Indy

5-25 in 2025-26 overall · 3-18 in conference · Horizon League

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Cleveland St93–101
Lvs Purdue FW81–87
Lvs Oakland74–86
L@ Wright St73–85
L@ Purdue FW78–83

A week or more of rest.

Penn State

12-20 in 2025-26 overall · 3-18 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Northwestern66–76
L@ Rutgers62–74
Lvs Ohio State62–94
Wvs Iowa71–69
L@ Nebraska64–87

A week or more of rest.

IU Indianapolis Jaguars at Penn State Nittany Lions

What could decide it: PSU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

IU Indy

Penn State

Penn State has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

IU Indy

Penn State