Longwood Lancers at Old Dominion Monarchs: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 14, 4:00 PM ETChartway Arena · at Old Dominion

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Longwood and Old Dominion
LONG	This season	ODU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ODU 76–75 · win probability ODU 55%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 150.7

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ODU has more of the edges

LONG 2, ODU 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

LONGBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: LONG 34.6%, ODU 26.0%. Defensive: LONG 72.3%, ODU 69.7%

ODUBig

Three-pointers

LONG hits 31.4% and allows 33.8%; ODU hits 36.0% and allows 32.0%. Threes are 34.8% and 36.2% of their shots

Context

Schedule so far

LONG has played the 330th-hardest schedule, ODU the 188th. A record against a soft schedule means less

ODUSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: LONG 49.7 and allows 53.8; ODU 50.6 and allows 50.8

LONGSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: LONG 41.4, ODU 34.7. Allowed: LONG 42.1, ODU 42.0

ODUSmall

Home court

ODU at home. This season: ODU 0-0 at home, LONG 0-0 away

Even

LONG offense vs ODU defense

Offense 182nd of 366 against a defense 222nd, on the model’s ratings

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: LONG 19.2%, ODU 15.4%. Forced: LONG 19.7%, ODU 14.5%

Context

Tempo

About 71 possessions: LONG plays 71.5 a game (54th fastest), ODU 70.8 (81st). Faster games mean more points

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: LONG 28%, ODU 34%. Transfers in: LONG 6, ODU 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

ODU offense vs LONG defense

Offense 240th of 366 against a defense 242nd, on the model’s ratings

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	ODU -1.4	—
Total	—	150.7	—
Projected score	—	LONG 74.7 · ODU 76.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	ODU -0.7	—
1H total	70.5	—
1H projected score	LONG 34.9 · ODU 35.6	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LONG WLWWL	13-16	45%	6-8	—
ODU LLWLL	16-16	50%	6-6	—

Venue/role: LONG away; ODU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
LONG OUOOO	16-13	55%	13-16
ODU OOOOO	21-11	66%	11-21

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LONG	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
ODU	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Longwood

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 18	vs VMI	W68–49WU
Nov 21	@ ETSU	No recent meeting
Nov 25	@ GMU	L69–83LO

Old Dominion

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 17	@ UVA	No recent meeting
Nov 24	vs HAMP	No recent meeting
Nov 27	@ VT	L71–75WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

LONG 0–1 ODUODU leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · LONG 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 26, 2021-22	LONG 61 @ ODU 62	ODU -4	LONG W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Longwood

29 games played

Straight up

13-16

45% wins

Against the spread

13-16

45% covers · avg −0.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-13

55% overs · avg +2.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

13-1645%

L W W L L L W L W L L W W L L W L W W L L W L L W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

13-1645%

L W L L L L L L L L W L W W L W W W W L L W W L W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

16-1355%

U O O O O U U O O O U U U U U O O U O U U O U O O U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@PITT	L 60-78	+14.5	L −3.5	145.5	U 138
Nov 12	vsJMU	W 82-72	+1.5	W +11.5	149.5	O 154
Nov 15	vsBING	W 90-82	-15.5	L −7.5	147.5	O 172
Nov 18	vsUMES	L 82-83	-17.5	L −18.5	138.5	O 165
Nov 23	@COLU	L 70-95	+3.5	L −21.5	153.5	O 165
Nov 28	vsSIE	L 63-70	+5.5	L −1.5	145.5	U 133
Nov 29	vsME	W 65-61	-5.5	L −1.5	138.5	U 126
Nov 30	@AMER	L 66-92	+5.5	L −20.5	148.5	O 158
Dec 6	@MORG	W 84-80	-5.5	L −1.5	154.5	O 164
Dec 13	vsDSU	L 76-81	-13.5	L −18.5	139.5	O 157
Dec 17	@WAKE	L 68-71	+24.5	W +21.5	163.5	U 139
Dec 20	@NCCU	W 74-72	-3.5	L −1.5	146.5	U 146
Dec 31	vsWIN	W 82-70	+7.5	W +19.5	161.5	U 152
Jan 3	@HPU	L 67-80	+16.5	W +3.5	160.5	U 147
Jan 7	@UNCA	L 61-72	+2.5	L −8.5	148.5	U 133
Jan 10	vsPRES	W 77-70	-3.5	W +3.5	139.5	O 147
Jan 17	@RAD	L 83-85	+4.5	W +2.5	157.5	O 168
Jan 21	vsGWEB	W 91-56	-16.5	W +18.5	155.5	U 147
Jan 23	vsCHSO	W 81-79	-1.5	W +0.5	156.5	O 160
Jan 29	@UPST	L 60-65	-1.5	L −6.5	147.5	U 125
Jan 31	vsHPU	L 59-71	+9.5	L −2.5	156.5	U 130
Feb 4	@GWEB	W 86-66	-12.5	W +7.5	147.5	O 152
Feb 7	@WIN	L 74-79	+10.5	W +5.5	153.5	U 153
Feb 12	vsUNCA	L 74-79	-2.5	L −7.5	141.5	O 153
Feb 14	vsUPST	W 82-75	-6.5	W +0.5	147.5	O 157
Feb 19	@PRES	L 65-72	+2.5	L −4.5	139.5	U 137
Feb 21	@CHSO	W 107-96	+2.5	W +13.5	154.5	O 203
Feb 28	vsRAD	W 90-74	-1.5	W +14.5	154.5	O 164
Mar 6	vsUNCA	L 82-85	-1.5	L −4.5	140.5	O 167

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PITT

L 60-78

−3.5

JMU

W 82-72

+11.5

BING

W 90-82

−7.5

UMES

L 82-83

−18.5

COLU

L 70-95

−21.5

SIE

L 63-70

−1.5

W 65-61

−1.5

AMER

L 66-92

−20.5

MORG

W 84-80

−1.5

DSU

L 76-81

−18.5

WAKE

L 68-71

+21.5

NCCU

W 74-72

−1.5

WIN

W 82-70

+19.5

HPU

L 67-80

+3.5

UNCA

L 61-72

−8.5

PRES

W 77-70

+3.5

RAD

L 83-85

+2.5

GWEB

W 91-56

+18.5

CHSO

W 81-79

+0.5

UPST

L 60-65

−6.5

HPU

L 59-71

−2.5

GWEB

W 86-66

+7.5

WIN

L 74-79

+5.5

UNCA

L 74-79

−7.5

UPST

W 82-75

+0.5

PRES

L 65-72

−4.5

CHSO

W 107-96

+13.5

RAD

W 90-74

+14.5

UNCA

L 82-85

−4.5

covered 13didn’t cover 16avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PITT

L 60-78

−7.5

JMU

W 82-72

+4.5

BING

W 90-82

+24.5

UMES

L 82-83

+26.5

COLU

L 70-95

+11.5

SIE

L 63-70

−12.5

W 65-61

−12.5

AMER

L 66-92

+9.5

MORG

W 84-80

+9.5

DSU

L 76-81

+17.5

WAKE

L 68-71

−24.5

NCCU

W 74-72

−0.5

WIN

W 82-70

−9.5

HPU

L 67-80

−13.5

UNCA

L 61-72

−15.5

PRES

W 77-70

+7.5

RAD

L 83-85

+10.5

GWEB

W 91-56

−8.5

CHSO

W 81-79

+3.5

UPST

L 60-65

−22.5

HPU

L 59-71

−26.5

GWEB

W 86-66

+4.5

WIN

L 74-79

−0.5

UNCA

L 74-79

+11.5

UPST

W 82-75

+9.5

PRES

L 65-72

−2.5

CHSO

W 107-96

+48.5

RAD

W 90-74

+9.5

UNCA

L 82-85

+26.5

over 16under 13avg +2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Old Dominion

32 games played

Straight up

11-21

34% wins

Against the spread

16-16

50% covers · avg +1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

21-11

66% overs · avg +2.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

11-2134%

L W L L W L L L L L W L L L L W L L W L W L L W L W W L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

16-1650%

W L L L W L W L W W W L L L L W W W W L W L L W W W W L L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

21-1166%

O U O O U O O U O U U O U O O U U O O O U O O U O U O O O O O O

6 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@M-OH	L 72-87	+16.5	W +1.5	153.5	O 159
Nov 11	vsNORF	W 60-57	-8.5	L −5.5	149.5	U 117
Nov 15	@GW	L 73-96	+15.5	L −7.5	155.5	O 169
Nov 18	@XAV	L 69-99	+10.5	L −19.5	150.5	O 168
Nov 21	vsMORG	W 88-56	-11.5	W +20.5	156.5	U 144
Nov 23	@DREX	L 71-75	+3.5	L −0.5	142.5	O 146
Nov 25	@VILL	L 75-89	+22.5	W +8.5	147.5	O 164
Nov 30	@W&M	L 75-88	+8.5	L −4.5	163.5	U 163
Dec 6	@RICH	L 77-86	+12.5	W +3.5	153.5	O 163
Dec 13	@GMU	L 61-73	+16.5	W +4.5	144.5	U 134
Dec 17	vsJMU	W 77-68	+2.5	W +11.5	148.5	U 145
Dec 20	vsCCU	L 74-76	-3.5	L −5.5	147.5	O 150
Dec 28	@MD	L 58-73	+14.5	L −0.5	154.5	U 131
Dec 31	vsAPP	L 73-81	-1.5	L −9.5	136.5	O 154
Jan 3	vsGASO	L 86-93	+1.5	L −5.5	161.5	O 179
Jan 8	@CCU	W 70-66	+4.5	W +8.5	151.5	U 136
Jan 10	@JMU	L 69-70	+6.5	W +5.5	147.5	U 139
Jan 15	@GASO	L 84-87	+5.5	W +2.5	162.5	O 171
Jan 17	@APP	W 75-73	+7.5	W +9.5	140.5	O 148
Jan 21	vsTROY	L 77-83	+5.5	L −0.5	152.5	O 160
Jan 28	@ARST	W 75-71	+9.5	W +13.5	159.5	U 146
Jan 31	@TXST	L 64-81	+2.5	L −14.5	143.5	O 145
Feb 4	vsULM	L 79-85	-14.5	L −20.5	154.5	O 164
Feb 7	vsOHIO	W 78-72	+3.5	W +9.5	156.5	U 150
Feb 11	vsMRSH	L 79-81	+3.5	W +1.5	155.5	O 160
Feb 14	vsGAST	W 78-55	-3.5	W +19.5	147.5	U 133
Feb 16	vsUL	W 83-72	-6.5	W +4.5	135.5	O 155
Feb 21	@USM	L 81-86	+4.5	L −0.5	147.5	O 167
Feb 24	@MRSH	L 88-97	+7.5	L −1.5	159.5	O 185
Feb 27	@GAST	W 81-73	-1.5	W +6.5	149.5	O 154
Mar 3	vsULM	W 87-80	-9.5	L −2.5	157.5	O 167
Mar 4	vsGASO	L 84-88	+2.5	L −1.5	157.5	O 172

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

M-OH

L 72-87

+1.5

NORF

W 60-57

−5.5

L 73-96

−7.5

XAV

L 69-99

−19.5

MORG

W 88-56

+20.5

DREX

L 71-75

−0.5

VILL

L 75-89

+8.5

W&M

L 75-88

−4.5

RICH

L 77-86

+3.5

GMU

L 61-73

+4.5

JMU

W 77-68

+11.5

CCU

L 74-76

−5.5

L 58-73

−0.5

APP

L 73-81

−9.5

GASO

L 86-93

−5.5

CCU

W 70-66

+8.5

JMU

L 69-70

+5.5

GASO

L 84-87

+2.5

APP

W 75-73

+9.5

TROY

L 77-83

−0.5

ARST

W 75-71

+13.5

TXST

L 64-81

−14.5

ULM

L 79-85

−20.5

OHIO

W 78-72

+9.5

MRSH

L 79-81

+1.5

GAST

W 78-55

+19.5

W 83-72

+4.5

USM

L 81-86

−0.5

MRSH

L 88-97

−1.5

GAST

W 81-73

+6.5

ULM

W 87-80

−2.5

GASO

L 84-88

−1.5

covered 16didn’t cover 16avg +1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

M-OH

L 72-87

+5.5

NORF

W 60-57

−32.5

L 73-96

+13.5

XAV

L 69-99

+17.5

MORG

W 88-56

−12.5

DREX

L 71-75

+3.5

VILL

L 75-89

+16.5

W&M

L 75-88

−0.5

RICH

L 77-86

+9.5

GMU

L 61-73

−10.5

JMU

W 77-68

−3.5

CCU

L 74-76

+2.5

L 58-73

−23.5

APP

L 73-81

+17.5

GASO

L 86-93

+17.5

CCU

W 70-66

−15.5

JMU

L 69-70

−8.5

GASO

L 84-87

+8.5

APP

W 75-73

+7.5

TROY

L 77-83

+7.5

ARST

W 75-71

−13.5

TXST

L 64-81

+1.5

ULM

L 79-85

+9.5

OHIO

W 78-72

−6.5

MRSH

L 79-81

+4.5

GAST

W 78-55

−14.5

W 83-72

+19.5

USM

L 81-86

+19.5

MRSH

L 88-97

+25.5

GAST

W 81-73

+4.5

ULM

W 87-80

+9.5

GASO

L 84-88

+14.5

over 21under 11avg +2.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Longwood has the better starters

Position by position: Longwood 3, Old Dominion 0, even 2

LongwoodBetterOld Dominion

G M. Williams TR9.9 pts · 3.6 reb · 4.1 ast Score 65

LONGSmall

G B. Benjamin TR5.7 pts · 2.8 reb · 0.9 ast Score 32

G A. Billups7.8 pts · 2.6 reb · 1.2 ast Score 47

Even

G Z. Wiggins6 pts · 2.5 reb · 1.1 ast Score 46

G J. Benard7.3 pts · 3.6 reb · 0.9 ast Score 44

LONGSmall

G S. Hubbard3.2 pts · 2.9 reb · 0.5 ast Score 10

G T. Robinson TR9.5 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.5 ast Score 64

LONGBig

F Z. Weluche-Ume TR11.1 pts · 7.3 reb · 0.9 ast Score 29

G E. Kelly2.1 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.3 ast Score 28

Even

F J. Turner6.2 pts · 3.7 reb · 0.8 ast Score 30

LongwoodBetterOld Dominion

LONG offense182nd of 366 · -5.7

Even

ODU defense222nd of 366 · -5.8

LONG defense242nd of 366 · -6.4

Even

ODU offense240th of 366 · -7.3

Backcourt-1.7 · 5 players

LONGSmall

Backcourt-3.8 · 3 players

FrontcourtNo numbers yet

No call

Frontcourt-2.9 · 2 players

Bench-1.7 · 5 players

LONGSmall

Bench-3.2 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestLONG betterODU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Longwood

Guards

M. Williams24 min · TRA. Billups23 minJ. Benard20 minT. Robinson19 min · TRE. Kelly11 minB. Wesson2 min · TR

Forwards

D. Kauzonas10 min · TRL. Milosevic8 min · TRK. Musungay4 min · TRI. Kalala3 min

Old Dominion

Guards

B. Benjamin20 min · TRZ. Wiggins18 minS. Hubbard16 minK. Thurmon11 min · TRC. Parker3 minR. Hellams2 min

Forwards

Z. Weluche-Ume31 min · TRJ. Turner21 minK. Howze10 min · TRB. Nacey8 minJ. NwekeNewL. MartiniNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

LONG75.9 #143

ODU75.7 #150

Points per possession

LONG1.07 #215

ODU1.06 #217

Pace (possessions)

LONG71.5 #54

ODU70.8 #81

Shooting

Effective FG%

LONG49.7 #254

ODU50.6 #203

3-point %

LONG31.4 #309

ODU36.0 #60

3-point attempt rate

LONG34.8 #279

ODU36.2 #245

Free throw rate

LONG41.4 #40

ODU34.7 #189

Possessions

Turnover rate

LONG19.2 #327

ODU15.4 #95

Offensive rebound rate

LONG34.6 #57

ODU26.0 #323

Assists per game

LONG12.2 #270

ODU12.9 #218

Defense

Points allowed

LONG76.2 #223

ODU78.7 #283

Points allowed per possession

LONG1.06 #113

ODU1.12 #263

Opponent effective FG%

LONG53.8 #293

ODU50.8 #145

Opponent 3-point %

LONG33.8 #171

ODU32.0 #62

Turnovers forced

LONG19.7 #31

ODU14.5 #321

Defensive rebound rate

LONG72.3 #58

ODU69.7 #176

Steals per game

LONG8.3 #28

ODU5.7 #275

Blocks per game

LONG2.0 #347

ODU3.1 #208

LONG		ODU
Scoring
75.9 #143	Points per game	75.7 #150
1.07 #215	Points per possession	1.06 #217
71.5 #54	Pace (possessions)	70.8 #81
Shooting
49.7 #254	Effective FG%	50.6 #203
31.4 #309	3-point %	36.0 #60
34.8 #279	3-point attempt rate	36.2 #245
41.4 #40	Free throw rate	34.7 #189
Possessions
19.2 #327	Turnover rate	15.4 #95
34.6 #57	Offensive rebound rate	26.0 #323
12.2 #270	Assists per game	12.9 #218
Defense
76.2 #223	Points allowed	78.7 #283
1.06 #113	Points allowed per possession	1.12 #263
53.8 #293	Opponent effective FG%	50.8 #145
33.8 #171	Opponent 3-point %	32.0 #62
19.7 #31	Turnovers forced	14.5 #321
72.3 #58	Defensive rebound rate	69.7 #176
8.3 #28	Steals per game	5.7 #275
2.0 #347	Blocks per game	3.1 #208

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Longwood

13-16 in 2025-26 overall · 8-9 in conference · Big South Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs UNC Asheville82–85
Wvs Radford90–74
W@ Charleston So107–96
L@ Presbyterian65–72
Wvs SC Upstate82–75

A week or more of rest.

Old Dominion

11-21 in 2025-26 overall · 8-12 in conference · Sun Belt Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs GA Southern84–88
Wvs UL Monroe87–80
W@ Georgia St81–73
L@ Marshall88–97
L@ Southern Miss81–86

A week or more of rest.

Longwood Lancers at Old Dominion Monarchs

What could decide it: ODU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Longwood

Old Dominion

Longwood has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Longwood

Old Dominion