1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Nov 14
  3. SDST vs UNCO
NCAAB · Sat, Nov 14

South Dakota State Jackrabbits vs Northern Colorado Bears

The Monument · Neutral site
#201SDSTS Dakota St
vs
#219UNCON Colorado
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
SDSTThis seasonUNCO
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UNCO 76–76 · win probability UNCO 50%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 152.7
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

SDST 3, UNCO 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
UNCOSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: SDST 52.0 and allows 51.8; UNCO 55.7 and allows 50.1
UNCOSmall
Three-pointers
SDST hits 34.0% and allows 34.1%; UNCO hits 35.0% and allows 30.7%. Threes are 38.8% and 41.5% of their shots
SDSTSmall
SDST offense vs UNCO defense
Offense 185th of 366 against a defense 281st, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: SDST plays 68.2 a game (220th fastest), UNCO 71.3 (60th). Faster games mean more points
SDSTSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: SDST 29.7, UNCO 27.5. Allowed: SDST 34.5, UNCO 38.8
UNCOSmall
UNCO offense vs SDST defense
Offense 167th of 366 against a defense 221st, on the model’s ratings
SDSTSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: SDST 30.3%, UNCO 27.2%. Defensive: SDST 74.9%, UNCO 75.8%
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: SDST 51%, UNCO 28%. Transfers in: SDST 3, UNCO 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Schedule so far
SDST has played the 271st-hardest schedule, UNCO the 303rd. A record against a soft schedule means less
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: SDST 16.2%, UNCO 15.5%. Forced: SDST 14.5%, UNCO 12.4%
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—SDST -0.1—
Total—152.7—
Projected score—SDST 76.4 · UNCO 76.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadSDST -0.2—
1H total71.4—
1H projected scoreSDST 35.8 · UNCO 35.6—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: S Dakota St 1, N Colorado 1, even 3
S Dakota StBetterN Colorado
G J. Sayler14.8 pts · 3.6 reb · 2.2 ast Score 54
UNCOSmall
G L. Reynolds TR11.6 pts · 4.3 reb · 4.5 ast Score 79
G K. Garry10.6 pts · 5.1 reb · 3.3 ast Score 49
SDSTBig
G V. Delano6.4 pts · 1.8 reb · 1.6 ast Score 11
G E. Ryans TR7.7 pts · 1.7 reb · 1.9 ast Score 12
Even
G C. Tramble TR3.6 pts · 1.1 reb · 0.8 ast Score 16
F M. Thompson TR10.8 pts · 6.1 reb · 1.4 ast Score 38
Even
F K. Rayfield TR6.3 pts · 4.3 reb · 0.8 ast Score 40
C A. Squires4.4 pts · 3 reb · 0.7 ast Score 29
Even
C E. Shields6.4 pts · 4.7 reb · 0.9 ast Score 41
S Dakota StBetterN Colorado
SDST offense185th of 366 · -5.7
SDSTSmall
UNCO defense281st of 366 · -7.0
SDST defense221st of 366 · -5.7
UNCOSmall
UNCO offense167th of 366 · -5.1
Backcourt-4.4 · 3 players
UNCOSmall
Backcourt-2.2 · 3 players
Frontcourt-1.8 · 2 players
Even
Frontcourt-1.0 · 2 players
Bench-1.4 · 4 players
Even
Bench-1.5 · 4 players
Score, worst to bestSDST betterUNCO betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
S Dakota St
Guards
J. Sayler33 minK. Garry30 minE. Ryans27 min · TRT. Buchanan13 minJ. Rogers9 minJ. Cascio Jensen2 min
Forwards
M. Thompson29 min · TRJ. Mekonnen4 min · TRJ. Van KalsbeekNewD. KernNewY. YatabareNewB. EllweinNew
Centers
A. Squires14 min
N Colorado
Guards
L. Reynolds33 min · TRV. Delano20 minC. Tramble12 min · TRA. Mawien8 minT. Braketa5 minC. BloggNew
Forwards
K. Rayfield20 min · TRA. Crawford5 min · TRM. ShareefNewD. PaineNew
Centers
E. Shields18 minH. Caldwell4 min
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
SDSTUNCO
Scoring
74.4 #182Points per game80.8 #51
1.09 #150Points per possession1.14 #75
68.2 #220Pace (possessions)71.3 #60
Shooting
52.0 #143Effective FG%55.7 #24
34.0 #1743-point %35.0 #121
38.8 #1933-point attempt rate41.5 #140
29.7 #317Free throw rate27.5 #348
Possessions
16.2 #150Turnover rate15.5 #103
30.3 #186Offensive rebound rate27.2 #288
13.8 #160Assists per game15.8 #54
Defense
74.5 #177Points allowed78.1 #270
1.09 #198Points allowed per possession1.09 #209
51.8 #204Opponent effective FG%50.1 #106
34.1 #191Opponent 3-point %30.7 #28
14.5 #323Turnovers forced12.4 #363
74.9 #9Defensive rebound rate75.8 #6
5.5 #291Steals per game4.0 #364
2.2 #336Blocks per game2.7 #273
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

S Dakota St

11-18 in 2025-26 overall · 7-10 in conference · Summit League

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs St Thomas67–80
  • L@ South Dakota70–75
  • W@ Kansas City73–59
  • Wvs North Dakota91–83
  • Lvs N Dakota St66–74

A week or more of rest.

N Colorado

17-12 in 2025-26 overall · 10-9 in conference · Big Sky Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Montana89–95
  • Wvs Montana85–57
  • W@ Idaho76–67
  • L@ E Washington72–82
  • Wvs N Arizona78–77

A week or more of rest.