Toledo Rockets at Detroit Mercy Titans: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 14, 4:00 PM ETCalihan Hall · at Detroit Mercy

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Toledo and Detroit Mercy
TOL	This season	DETM
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TOL 79–76 · win probability TOL 61%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 155.0

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: TOL has more of the edges

TOL 4, DETM 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

TOLBig

TOL offense vs DETM defense

Offense 121st of 366 against a defense 310th, on the model’s ratings

TOLBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: TOL 14.7%, DETM 16.0%. Forced: TOL 17.9%, DETM 14.4%

DETMBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: TOL 29.5%, DETM 33.3%. Defensive: TOL 66.3%, DETM 69.2%

TOLSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: TOL 30.5, DETM 32.6. Allowed: TOL 26.6, DETM 37.6

TOLSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: TOL 54.5 and allows 54.3; DETM 49.5 and allows 52.2

DETMSmall

Home court

DETM at home. This season: DETM 0-0 at home, TOL 0-0 away

Context

Schedule so far

TOL has played the 172nd-hardest schedule, DETM the 208th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: TOL 43%, DETM 49%. Transfers in: TOL 2, DETM 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Context

Tempo

About 70 possessions: TOL plays 69.5 a game (146th fastest), DETM 69.7 (132nd). Faster games mean more points

Even

Three-pointers

TOL hits 37.0% and allows 34.4%; DETM hits 35.1% and allows 33.3%. Threes are 32.5% and 30.7% of their shots

Even

DETM offense vs TOL defense

Offense 236th of 366 against a defense 234th, on the model’s ratings

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	TOL -3.3	—
Total	—	155.0	—
Projected score	—	TOL 79.2 · DETM 75.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	TOL -2.1	—
1H total	72.4	—
1H projected score	TOL 37.3 · DETM 35.2	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TOL WWLWW	19-13	59%	10-4	—
DETM LWWWW	20-10	67%	8-4	—

Venue/role: TOL away; DETM home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
TOL UOOUU	13-19	41%	17-15
DETM UOUUU	14-16	47%	15-15

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TOL	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%
DETM	7-3 70%	8-2 80%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Toledo

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 19	vs RMU	L70–75LU
Nov 28	@ VAL	W85–70WO
Dec 2	@ OHIO	W79–67WU

Detroit Mercy

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 18	@ EMU	L62–72LU
Nov 21	@ MSU	L56–84WU
Nov 24	vs UND	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

TOL 4–0 DETMTOL leads · 4 games since 2021-22 · TOL has won the last 4 meetings · TOL 2-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 15, 2025-26	DETM 83 @ TOL 90	TOL -10.5	DETM W
Nov 16, 2024-25	TOL 82 @ DETM 67	DETM +11.5	TOL W
Nov 6, 2023-24	DETM 60 @ TOL 94	TOL -14.5	TOL W
Nov 13, 2021-22	DETM 73 @ TOL 81	TOL -8.5	DETM W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Toledo

32 games played

Straight up

17-15

53% wins

Against the spread

19-13

59% covers · avg +2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-19

41% overs · avg −0.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

17-1553%

L L W W W W L L L L W W W L W L L W L W L L W L W W W L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

19-1359%

L L W L W W L W L W L L W L W W W W W W L L W L W L W W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

13-1941%

U U U O O U U O U O O U U U O O O U O U U U O U O U U U O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsUSA	L 74-76	-2.5	L −4.5	150.5	U 150
Nov 8	vsMRSH	L 73-85	-2.5	L −14.5	160.5	U 158
Nov 11	@WRST	W 81-71	+5.5	W +15.5	159.5	U 152
Nov 15	vsDETM	W 90-83	-10.5	L −3.5	159.5	O 173
Nov 19	vsYSU	W 92-75	-1.5	W +15.5	160.5	O 167
Nov 24	vsTROY	W 75-68	+2.5	W +9.5	159.5	U 143
Nov 26	vsBEL	L 72-87	+4.5	L −10.5	163.5	U 159
Dec 6	@OAK	L 97-98	+4.5	W +3.5	166.5	O 195
Dec 13	@RMU	L 70-75	-1.5	L −6.5	154.5	U 145
Dec 16	@MSU	L 69-92	+23.5	W +0.5	150.5	O 161
Dec 30	vsWMU	W 84-79	-10.5	L −5.5	160.5	O 163
Jan 3	@CMU	W 78-75	-7.5	L −4.5	158.5	U 153
Jan 6	@NIU	W 75-61	-7.5	W +6.5	161.5	U 136
Jan 9	vsM-OH	L 73-87	-1.5	L −15.5	166.5	U 160
Jan 13	vsOHIO	W 101-85	-2.5	W +13.5	161.5	O 186
Jan 16	@KENT	L 84-87	+5.5	W +2.5	168.5	O 171
Jan 20	@MASS	L 82-84	+2.5	W +0.5	164.5	O 166
Jan 24	vsBGSU	W 73-72	+1.5	W +2.5	155.5	U 145
Jan 27	@AKR	L 81-91	+12.5	W +2.5	168.5	O 172
Jan 31	vsBALL	W 73-55	-8.5	W +9.5	146.5	U 128
Feb 3	vsKENT	L 72-75	+1.5	L −1.5	161.5	U 147
Feb 7	@JMU	L 71-73	-1.5	L −3.5	153.5	U 144
Feb 11	@WMU	W 90-79	-6.5	W +4.5	154.5	O 169
Feb 14	@BGSU	L 70-80	+3.5	L −6.5	150.5	U 150
Feb 21	vsEMU	W 94-75	-8.5	W +10.5	145.5	O 169
Feb 24	vsNIU	W 79-69	-12.5	L −2.5	150.5	U 148
Feb 28	@OHIO	W 79-67	+1.5	W +13.5	158.5	U 146
Mar 3	@M-OH	L 72-74	+7.5	W +5.5	162.5	U 146
Mar 6	vsBUF	W 99-78	-5.5	W +15.5	155.5	O 177
Mar 12	vsBGSU	W 77-76	-1.5	L −0.5	150.5	O 153
Mar 13	vsMASS	W 77-67	-2.5	W +7.5	158.5	U 144
Mar 14	vsAKR	L 76-79	+7.5	W +4.5	157.5	U 155

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

USA

L 74-76

−4.5

MRSH

L 73-85

−14.5

WRST

W 81-71

+15.5

DETM

W 90-83

−3.5

YSU

W 92-75

+15.5

TROY

W 75-68

+9.5

BEL

L 72-87

−10.5

OAK

L 97-98

+3.5

RMU

L 70-75

−6.5

MSU

L 69-92

+0.5

WMU

W 84-79

−5.5

CMU

W 78-75

−4.5

NIU

W 75-61

+6.5

M-OH

L 73-87

−15.5

OHIO

W 101-85

+13.5

KENT

L 84-87

+2.5

MASS

L 82-84

+0.5

BGSU

W 73-72

+2.5

AKR

L 81-91

+2.5

BALL

W 73-55

+9.5

KENT

L 72-75

−1.5

JMU

L 71-73

−3.5

WMU

W 90-79

+4.5

BGSU

L 70-80

−6.5

EMU

W 94-75

+10.5

NIU

W 79-69

−2.5

OHIO

W 79-67

+13.5

M-OH

L 72-74

+5.5

BUF

W 99-78

+15.5

BGSU

W 77-76

−0.5

MASS

W 77-67

+7.5

AKR

L 76-79

+4.5

covered 19didn’t cover 13avg +2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

USA

L 74-76

−0.5

MRSH

L 73-85

−2.5

WRST

W 81-71

−7.5

DETM

W 90-83

+13.5

YSU

W 92-75

+6.5

TROY

W 75-68

−16.5

BEL

L 72-87

−4.5

OAK

L 97-98

+28.5

RMU

L 70-75

−9.5

MSU

L 69-92

+10.5

WMU

W 84-79

+2.5

CMU

W 78-75

−5.5

NIU

W 75-61

−25.5

M-OH

L 73-87

−6.5

OHIO

W 101-85

+24.5

KENT

L 84-87

+2.5

MASS

L 82-84

+1.5

BGSU

W 73-72

−10.5

AKR

L 81-91

+3.5

BALL

W 73-55

−18.5

KENT

L 72-75

−14.5

JMU

L 71-73

−9.5

WMU

W 90-79

+14.5

BGSU

L 70-80

−0.5

EMU

W 94-75

+23.5

NIU

W 79-69

−2.5

OHIO

W 79-67

−12.5

M-OH

L 72-74

−16.5

BUF

W 99-78

+21.5

BGSU

W 77-76

+2.5

MASS

W 77-67

−14.5

AKR

L 76-79

−2.5

over 13under 19avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Detroit Mercy

30 games played

Straight up

15-15

50% wins

Against the spread

20-10

67% covers · avg +3.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-16

47% overs · avg +0.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

15-1550%

L L L L L L W W W L W L L W L W L L W W L W W W W L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

20-1067%

L L W L W L W W W W W L W W L W L L W W L W W W W L W W W W

4 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

14-1647%

O O O U U O U U U O U O O O O U O O O U U U U O U U O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@UIC	L 71-91	+9.5	L −10.5	142.5	O 162
Nov 7	@ND	L 70-102	+21.5	L −10.5	147.5	O 172
Nov 15	@TOL	L 83-90	+10.5	W +3.5	159.5	O 173
Nov 18	vsEMU	L 62-72	-1.5	L −11.5	157.5	U 134
Nov 21	@MSU	L 56-84	+30.5	W +2.5	149.5	U 140
Nov 23	@DEP	L 75-95	+19.5	L −0.5	151.5	O 170
Nov 29	@NIA	W 70-66	-1.5	W +2.5	142.5	U 136
Dec 3	vsIUIN	W 92-78	-3.5	W +10.5	180.5	U 170
Dec 6	@CLE	W 71-59	+1.5	W +13.5	158.5	U 130
Dec 14	@PFW	L 77-81	+9.5	W +5.5	153.5	O 158
Dec 29	@YSU	W 73-68	+9.5	W +14.5	146.5	U 141
Jan 2	vsRMU	L 77-85	+3.5	L −4.5	148.5	O 162
Jan 9	vsWRST	L 82-84	+5.5	W +3.5	148.5	O 166
Jan 11	vsCLE	W 94-84	-6.5	W +3.5	162.5	O 178
Jan 15	@NKU	L 71-96	+10.5	L −14.5	159.5	O 167
Jan 17	@IUIN	W 80-77	+1.5	W +4.5	169.5	U 157
Jan 21	vsPFW	L 76-83	+2.5	L −4.5	155.5	O 159
Jan 24	vsOAK	L 87-95	+6.5	L −1.5	167.5	O 182
Jan 30	vsNKU	W 90-77	+5.5	W +18.5	161.5	O 167
Feb 4	@MILW	W 76-63	+6.5	W +19.5	155.5	U 139
Feb 7	@GB	L 63-76	+3.5	L −9.5	149.5	U 139
Feb 12	@WRST	W 77-74	+11.5	W +14.5	151.5	U 151
Feb 15	vsYSU	W 76-70	+4.5	W +10.5	151.5	U 146
Feb 20	vsMILW	W 91-86	+1.5	W +6.5	153.5	O 177
Feb 22	vsGB	W 74-70	-1.5	W +2.5	147.5	U 144
Feb 25	@RMU	L 62-73	+8.5	L −2.5	150.5	U 135
Feb 28	@OAK	W 95-89	+8.5	W +14.5	160.5	O 184
Mar 4	vsMILW	W 84-63	-1.5	W +19.5	151.5	U 147
Mar 9	vsRMU	W 70-64	+4.5	W +10.5	146.5	U 134
Mar 10	vsWRST	L 63-66	+4.5	W +1.5	153.5	U 129

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UIC

L 71-91

−10.5

L 70-102

−10.5

TOL

L 83-90

+3.5

EMU

L 62-72

−11.5

MSU

L 56-84

+2.5

DEP

L 75-95

−0.5

NIA

W 70-66

+2.5

IUIN

W 92-78

+10.5

CLE

W 71-59

+13.5

PFW

L 77-81

+5.5

YSU

W 73-68

+14.5

RMU

L 77-85

−4.5

WRST

L 82-84

+3.5

CLE

W 94-84

+3.5

NKU

L 71-96

−14.5

IUIN

W 80-77

+4.5

PFW

L 76-83

−4.5

OAK

L 87-95

−1.5

NKU

W 90-77

+18.5

MILW

W 76-63

+19.5

L 63-76

−9.5

WRST

W 77-74

+14.5

YSU

W 76-70

+10.5

MILW

W 91-86

+6.5

W 74-70

+2.5

RMU

L 62-73

−2.5

OAK

W 95-89

+14.5

MILW

W 84-63

+19.5

RMU

W 70-64

+10.5

WRST

L 63-66

+1.5

covered 20didn’t cover 10avg +3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UIC

L 71-91

+19.5

L 70-102

+24.5

TOL

L 83-90

+13.5

EMU

L 62-72

−23.5

MSU

L 56-84

−9.5

DEP

L 75-95

+18.5

NIA

W 70-66

−6.5

IUIN

W 92-78

−10.5

CLE

W 71-59

−28.5

PFW

L 77-81

+4.5

YSU

W 73-68

−5.5

RMU

L 77-85

+13.5

WRST

L 82-84

+17.5

CLE

W 94-84

+15.5

NKU

L 71-96

+7.5

IUIN

W 80-77

−12.5

PFW

L 76-83

+3.5

OAK

L 87-95

+14.5

NKU

W 90-77

+5.5

MILW

W 76-63

−16.5

L 63-76

−10.5

WRST

W 77-74

−0.5

YSU

W 76-70

−5.5

MILW

W 91-86

+23.5

W 74-70

−3.5

RMU

L 62-73

−15.5

OAK

W 95-89

+23.5

MILW

W 84-63

−4.5

RMU

W 70-64

−12.5

WRST

L 63-66

−24.5

over 14under 16avg +0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Toledo has the better starters

Position by position: Toledo 1, Detroit Mercy 0, even 4

ToledoBetterDetroit Mercy

G A. Montas TR16.8 pts · 5.1 reb · 1.5 ast Score 89

TOLBig

G T. Spratt10.1 pts · 3.5 reb · 1.5 ast Score 54

G S. Jones TR6.3 pts · 1.4 reb · 3.9 ast Not ranked

No call

G A. Carter11.9 pts · 3.9 reb · 1.4 ast Not ranked

G M. Strong5.5 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.7 ast Score 19

Even

G L. Stone6.6 pts · 1.1 reb · 1.9 ast Score 9

F J. Ouwinga6.1 pts · 3.3 reb · 0.7 ast Score 27

Even

F L. Maiden6.5 pts · 3 reb · 0.4 ast Score 28

C A. Parks10.3 pts · 5.5 reb · 1.8 ast Score 54

No call

C X. Istomin-Monroe1.6 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked

ToledoBetterDetroit Mercy

TOL offense121st of 366 · -2.8

TOLBig

DETM defense310th of 366 · -8.1

TOL defense234th of 366 · -6.2

Even

DETM offense236th of 366 · -7.2

Backcourt+0.8 · 3 players

TOLSmall

Backcourt-2.0 · 3 players

Frontcourt-0.6 · 2 players

TOLSmall

Frontcourt-1.9 · 2 players

Bench-1.5 · 3 players

Even

Bench-0.7 · 1 player

Score, worst to bestTOL betterDETM betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Toledo

Guards

A. Montas31 min · TRS. Jones21 min · TRM. Strong18 minW. James9 minM. JohnsonNewM. MattucciNew

Forwards

J. Ouwinga19 minC. Riddle13 minT. Nwokolo2 minR. BarronNewR. PorterNew

Centers

A. Parks25 min

Detroit Mercy

Guards

T. Spratt25 minA. Carter21 minL. Stone21 minJ. Cotton7 minJ. BriggsNewE. PalssonNew

Forwards

L. Maiden16 minD. FavorNewV. SemerychNewC. HouserNewT. OwensNew

Centers

X. Istomin-Monroe8 min

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

TOL79.8 #71

DETM76.3 #135

Points per possession

TOL1.15 #62

DETM1.09 #153

Pace (possessions)

TOL69.5 #146

DETM69.7 #132

Shooting

Effective FG%

TOL54.5 #50

DETM49.5 #267

3-point %

TOL37.0 #29

DETM35.1 #108

3-point attempt rate

TOL32.5 #323

DETM30.7 #343

Free throw rate

TOL30.5 #298

DETM32.6 #247

Possessions

Turnover rate

TOL14.7 #51

DETM16.0 #138

Offensive rebound rate

TOL29.5 #220

DETM33.3 #81

Assists per game

TOL15.6 #61

DETM13.1 #208

Defense

Points allowed

TOL77.4 #250

DETM78.7 #285

Points allowed per possession

TOL1.11 #257

DETM1.13 #290

Opponent effective FG%

TOL54.3 #308

DETM52.2 #223

Opponent 3-point %

TOL34.4 #215

DETM33.3 #140

Turnovers forced

TOL17.9 #104

DETM14.4 #324

Defensive rebound rate

TOL66.3 #313

DETM69.2 #193

Steals per game

TOL7.7 #67

DETM5.8 #264

Blocks per game

TOL2.9 #247

DETM3.3 #182

TOL		DETM
Scoring
79.8 #71	Points per game	76.3 #135
1.15 #62	Points per possession	1.09 #153
69.5 #146	Pace (possessions)	69.7 #132
Shooting
54.5 #50	Effective FG%	49.5 #267
37.0 #29	3-point %	35.1 #108
32.5 #323	3-point attempt rate	30.7 #343
30.5 #298	Free throw rate	32.6 #247
Possessions
14.7 #51	Turnover rate	16.0 #138
29.5 #220	Offensive rebound rate	33.3 #81
15.6 #61	Assists per game	13.1 #208
Defense
77.4 #250	Points allowed	78.7 #285
1.11 #257	Points allowed per possession	1.13 #290
54.3 #308	Opponent effective FG%	52.2 #223
34.4 #215	Opponent 3-point %	33.3 #140
17.9 #104	Turnovers forced	14.4 #324
66.3 #313	Defensive rebound rate	69.2 #193
7.7 #67	Steals per game	5.8 #264
2.9 #247	Blocks per game	3.3 #182

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Toledo

17-15 in 2025-26 overall · 13-8 in conference · Mid-American Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Akron76–79
Wvs UMass77–67
Wvs Bowling Green77–76
Wvs Buffalo99–78
L@ Miami OH72–74

A week or more of rest.

Detroit Mercy

15-15 in 2025-26 overall · 14-9 in conference · Horizon League

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Wright St63–66
Wvs Robert Morris70–64
Wvs Milwaukee84–63
W@ Oakland95–89
L@ Robert Morris62–73

A week or more of rest.

Toledo Rockets at Detroit Mercy Titans

What could decide it: TOL has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Toledo

Detroit Mercy

Toledo has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Toledo

Detroit Mercy