Robert Morris Colonials at Toledo Rockets: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Nov 19, 7:00 PM ETSavage Arena · at Toledo

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Robert Morris and Toledo
RMU	This season	TOL
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TOL 78–74 · win probability TOL 61%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 151.7

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

RMU 4, TOL 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

RMUBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: RMU 37.5%, TOL 29.5%. Defensive: RMU 71.2%, TOL 66.3%

TOLBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: RMU 18.6%, TOL 14.7%. Forced: RMU 15.8%, TOL 17.9%

TOLBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: RMU 28.0, TOL 30.5. Allowed: RMU 40.1, TOL 26.6

RMUBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: RMU 54.9 and allows 50.0; TOL 54.5 and allows 54.3

Context

Schedule so far

RMU has played the 280th-hardest schedule, TOL the 172nd. A record against a soft schedule means less

TOLSmall

TOL offense vs RMU defense

Offense 121st of 366 against a defense 183rd, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: RMU plays 67.5 a game (256th fastest), TOL 69.5 (146th). Faster games mean more points

RMUSmall

RMU offense vs TOL defense

Offense 179th of 366 against a defense 234th, on the model’s ratings

TOLSmall

Home court

TOL at home. This season: TOL 0-0 at home, RMU 0-0 away

RMUSmall

Three-pointers

RMU hits 38.0% and allows 33.2%; TOL hits 37.0% and allows 34.4%. Threes are 40.7% and 32.5% of their shots

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: RMU 32%, TOL 43%. Transfers in: RMU 4, TOL 2. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	TOL -3.3	—
Total	—	151.7	—
Projected score	—	RMU 74.2 · TOL 77.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	TOL -1.8	—
1H total	70.9	—
1H projected score	RMU 34.5 · TOL 36.4	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
RMU WWWWL	20-11	65%	9-6	—
TOL WWLWW	19-13	59%	6-7	—

Venue/role: RMU away; TOL home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
RMU OUUUU	16-15	52%	20-11
TOL UOOUU	13-19	41%	17-15

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
RMU	8-2 80%	8-2 80%	3-7 30%
TOL	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Robert Morris

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 22	vs NMSU	No recent meeting
Nov 24	vs LAM	No recent meeting
Nov 28	@ UNI	No recent meeting

Toledo

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 28	@ VAL	W85–70WO
Dec 2	@ OHIO	W79–67WU
Dec 5	vs KENT	L72–75LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

RMU 1–0 TOLRMU leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · RMU 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 13, 2025-26	TOL 70 @ RMU 75	RMU +1.5	RMU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Robert Morris

31 games played

Straight up

20-11

65% wins

Against the spread

20-11

65% covers · avg +2.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-15

52% overs · avg +0.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

20-1165%

L W L L W W W W L W W W L W L L L W W L W L W W W W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

20-1165%

L W L W W L W W W W W L L W L L L W W L W L W W W W W W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

16-1552%

O O U U O U U O U U O O O O O O O O O U U O U U U O O U U U U

4 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@IOWA	L 69-101	+22.5	L −9.5	136.5	O 170
Nov 6	@DRKE	W 81-79	+7.5	W +9.5	151.5	O 160
Nov 20	@SBU	L 61-75	+11.5	L −2.5	146.5	U 136
Nov 23	@MONM	L 70-71	+2.5	W +1.5	148.5	U 141
Nov 26	vsUIC	W 88-74	+1.5	W +15.5	151.5	O 162
Nov 28	vsSUU	W 61-54	-8.5	L −1.5	152.5	U 115
Nov 30	vsSTET	W 80-62	-11.5	W +6.5	142.5	U 142
Dec 4	@GB	W 80-78	-1.5	W +0.5	140.5	O 158
Dec 6	@MILW	L 72-74	+4.5	W +2.5	153.5	U 146
Dec 13	vsTOL	W 75-70	+1.5	W +6.5	154.5	U 145
Dec 17	vsYSU	W 80-77	-2.5	W +0.5	140.5	O 157
Dec 20	@SFPA	W 79-70	-13.5	L −4.5	145.5	O 149
Dec 29	vsNKU	L 77-79	+1.5	L −0.5	149.5	O 156
Jan 2	@DETM	W 85-77	-3.5	W +4.5	148.5	O 162
Jan 4	@OAK	L 73-96	+1.5	L −21.5	161.5	O 169
Jan 11	vsPFW	L 74-79	-4.5	L −9.5	146.5	O 153
Jan 15	@IUIN	L 93-96	-5.5	L −8.5	160.5	O 189
Jan 17	@NKU	W 92-89	+7.5	W +10.5	153.5	O 181
Jan 22	vsMILW	W 88-76	-4.5	W +7.5	152.5	O 164
Jan 24	vsGB	L 67-71	-6.5	L −10.5	142.5	U 138
Jan 28	vsIUIN	W 74-58	-8.5	W +7.5	162.5	U 132
Jan 31	@PFW	L 71-83	+2.5	L −9.5	145.5	O 154
Feb 4	vsWRST	W 72-66	+1.5	W +7.5	147.5	U 138
Feb 7	@YSU	W 72-66	+3.5	W +9.5	143.5	U 138
Feb 12	@CLE	W 85-68	-3.5	W +13.5	154.5	U 153
Feb 15	vsOAK	W 93-69	-1.5	W +22.5	156.5	O 162
Feb 22	@WRST	W 81-68	+4.5	W +17.5	146.5	O 149
Feb 25	vsDETM	W 73-62	-8.5	W +2.5	150.5	U 135
Feb 28	vsCLE	W 83-64	-12.5	W +6.5	157.5	U 147
Mar 4	vsYSU	W 68-53	-3.5	W +11.5	143.5	U 121
Mar 9	vsDETM	L 64-70	-4.5	L −10.5	146.5	U 134

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

IOWA

L 69-101

−9.5

DRKE

W 81-79

+9.5

SBU

L 61-75

−2.5

MONM

L 70-71

+1.5

UIC

W 88-74

+15.5

SUU

W 61-54

−1.5

STET

W 80-62

+6.5

W 80-78

+0.5

MILW

L 72-74

+2.5

TOL

W 75-70

+6.5

YSU

W 80-77

+0.5

SFPA

W 79-70

−4.5

NKU

L 77-79

−0.5

DETM

W 85-77

+4.5

OAK

L 73-96

−21.5

PFW

L 74-79

−9.5

IUIN

L 93-96

−8.5

NKU

W 92-89

+10.5

MILW

W 88-76

+7.5

L 67-71

−10.5

IUIN

W 74-58

+7.5

PFW

L 71-83

−9.5

WRST

W 72-66

+7.5

YSU

W 72-66

+9.5

CLE

W 85-68

+13.5

OAK

W 93-69

+22.5

WRST

W 81-68

+17.5

DETM

W 73-62

+2.5

CLE

W 83-64

+6.5

YSU

W 68-53

+11.5

DETM

L 64-70

−10.5

covered 20didn’t cover 11avg +2.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

IOWA

L 69-101

+33.5

DRKE

W 81-79

+8.5

SBU

L 61-75

−10.5

MONM

L 70-71

−7.5

UIC

W 88-74

+10.5

SUU

W 61-54

−37.5

STET

W 80-62

−0.5

W 80-78

+17.5

MILW

L 72-74

−7.5

TOL

W 75-70

−9.5

YSU

W 80-77

+16.5

SFPA

W 79-70

+3.5

NKU

L 77-79

+6.5

DETM

W 85-77

+13.5

OAK

L 73-96

+7.5

PFW

L 74-79

+6.5

IUIN

L 93-96

+28.5

NKU

W 92-89

+27.5

MILW

W 88-76

+11.5

L 67-71

−4.5

IUIN

W 74-58

−30.5

PFW

L 71-83

+8.5

WRST

W 72-66

−9.5

YSU

W 72-66

−5.5

CLE

W 85-68

−1.5

OAK

W 93-69

+5.5

WRST

W 81-68

+2.5

DETM

W 73-62

−15.5

CLE

W 83-64

−10.5

YSU

W 68-53

−22.5

DETM

L 64-70

−12.5

over 16under 15avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Toledo

32 games played

Straight up

17-15

53% wins

Against the spread

19-13

59% covers · avg +2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-19

41% overs · avg −0.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

17-1553%

L L W W W W L L L L W W W L W L L W L W L L W L W W W L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

19-1359%

L L W L W W L W L W L L W L W W W W W W L L W L W L W W W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

13-1941%

U U U O O U U O U O O U U U O O O U O U U U O U O U U U O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsUSA	L 74-76	-2.5	L −4.5	150.5	U 150
Nov 8	vsMRSH	L 73-85	-2.5	L −14.5	160.5	U 158
Nov 11	@WRST	W 81-71	+5.5	W +15.5	159.5	U 152
Nov 15	vsDETM	W 90-83	-10.5	L −3.5	159.5	O 173
Nov 19	vsYSU	W 92-75	-1.5	W +15.5	160.5	O 167
Nov 24	vsTROY	W 75-68	+2.5	W +9.5	159.5	U 143
Nov 26	vsBEL	L 72-87	+4.5	L −10.5	163.5	U 159
Dec 6	@OAK	L 97-98	+4.5	W +3.5	166.5	O 195
Dec 13	@RMU	L 70-75	-1.5	L −6.5	154.5	U 145
Dec 16	@MSU	L 69-92	+23.5	W +0.5	150.5	O 161
Dec 30	vsWMU	W 84-79	-10.5	L −5.5	160.5	O 163
Jan 3	@CMU	W 78-75	-7.5	L −4.5	158.5	U 153
Jan 6	@NIU	W 75-61	-7.5	W +6.5	161.5	U 136
Jan 9	vsM-OH	L 73-87	-1.5	L −15.5	166.5	U 160
Jan 13	vsOHIO	W 101-85	-2.5	W +13.5	161.5	O 186
Jan 16	@KENT	L 84-87	+5.5	W +2.5	168.5	O 171
Jan 20	@MASS	L 82-84	+2.5	W +0.5	164.5	O 166
Jan 24	vsBGSU	W 73-72	+1.5	W +2.5	155.5	U 145
Jan 27	@AKR	L 81-91	+12.5	W +2.5	168.5	O 172
Jan 31	vsBALL	W 73-55	-8.5	W +9.5	146.5	U 128
Feb 3	vsKENT	L 72-75	+1.5	L −1.5	161.5	U 147
Feb 7	@JMU	L 71-73	-1.5	L −3.5	153.5	U 144
Feb 11	@WMU	W 90-79	-6.5	W +4.5	154.5	O 169
Feb 14	@BGSU	L 70-80	+3.5	L −6.5	150.5	U 150
Feb 21	vsEMU	W 94-75	-8.5	W +10.5	145.5	O 169
Feb 24	vsNIU	W 79-69	-12.5	L −2.5	150.5	U 148
Feb 28	@OHIO	W 79-67	+1.5	W +13.5	158.5	U 146
Mar 3	@M-OH	L 72-74	+7.5	W +5.5	162.5	U 146
Mar 6	vsBUF	W 99-78	-5.5	W +15.5	155.5	O 177
Mar 12	vsBGSU	W 77-76	-1.5	L −0.5	150.5	O 153
Mar 13	vsMASS	W 77-67	-2.5	W +7.5	158.5	U 144
Mar 14	vsAKR	L 76-79	+7.5	W +4.5	157.5	U 155

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

USA

L 74-76

−4.5

MRSH

L 73-85

−14.5

WRST

W 81-71

+15.5

DETM

W 90-83

−3.5

YSU

W 92-75

+15.5

TROY

W 75-68

+9.5

BEL

L 72-87

−10.5

OAK

L 97-98

+3.5

RMU

L 70-75

−6.5

MSU

L 69-92

+0.5

WMU

W 84-79

−5.5

CMU

W 78-75

−4.5

NIU

W 75-61

+6.5

M-OH

L 73-87

−15.5

OHIO

W 101-85

+13.5

KENT

L 84-87

+2.5

MASS

L 82-84

+0.5

BGSU

W 73-72

+2.5

AKR

L 81-91

+2.5

BALL

W 73-55

+9.5

KENT

L 72-75

−1.5

JMU

L 71-73

−3.5

WMU

W 90-79

+4.5

BGSU

L 70-80

−6.5

EMU

W 94-75

+10.5

NIU

W 79-69

−2.5

OHIO

W 79-67

+13.5

M-OH

L 72-74

+5.5

BUF

W 99-78

+15.5

BGSU

W 77-76

−0.5

MASS

W 77-67

+7.5

AKR

L 76-79

+4.5

covered 19didn’t cover 13avg +2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

USA

L 74-76

−0.5

MRSH

L 73-85

−2.5

WRST

W 81-71

−7.5

DETM

W 90-83

+13.5

YSU

W 92-75

+6.5

TROY

W 75-68

−16.5

BEL

L 72-87

−4.5

OAK

L 97-98

+28.5

RMU

L 70-75

−9.5

MSU

L 69-92

+10.5

WMU

W 84-79

+2.5

CMU

W 78-75

−5.5

NIU

W 75-61

−25.5

M-OH

L 73-87

−6.5

OHIO

W 101-85

+24.5

KENT

L 84-87

+2.5

MASS

L 82-84

+1.5

BGSU

W 73-72

−10.5

AKR

L 81-91

+3.5

BALL

W 73-55

−18.5

KENT

L 72-75

−14.5

JMU

L 71-73

−9.5

WMU

W 90-79

+14.5

BGSU

L 70-80

−0.5

EMU

W 94-75

+23.5

NIU

W 79-69

−2.5

OHIO

W 79-67

−12.5

M-OH

L 72-74

−16.5

BUF

W 99-78

+21.5

BGSU

W 77-76

+2.5

MASS

W 77-67

−14.5

AKR

L 76-79

−2.5

over 13under 19avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Robert Morris 1, Toledo 1, even 3

Robert MorrisBetterToledo

G A. Valentine TR12 pts · 4 reb · 3.8 ast Score 71

TOLSmall

G A. Montas TR16.8 pts · 5.1 reb · 1.5 ast Score 89

G D. Livingston9.6 pts · 2 reb · 2.9 ast Score 23

No call

G S. Jones TR6.3 pts · 1.4 reb · 3.9 ast Not ranked

G T. Smith6.7 pts · 2.2 reb · 1.4 ast Score 30

Even

G M. Strong5.5 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.7 ast Score 19

F J. Dunkley TR12.4 pts · 6.7 reb · 1 ast Score 74

RMUBig

F J. Ouwinga6.1 pts · 3.3 reb · 0.7 ast Score 27

F K. Ugwuakazi TR5.2 pts · 5.1 reb · 0.6 ast Score 63

Even

C A. Parks10.3 pts · 5.5 reb · 1.8 ast Score 54

Robert MorrisBetterToledo

RMU offense179th of 366 · -5.5

RMUSmall

TOL defense234th of 366 · -6.2

RMU defense183rd of 366 · -4.2

TOLSmall

TOL offense121st of 366 · -2.8

Backcourt-2.8 · 3 players

TOLBig

Backcourt+0.8 · 3 players

Frontcourt+1.5 · 2 players

RMUSmall

Frontcourt-0.6 · 2 players

Bench-0.3 · 3 players

RMUSmall

Bench-1.5 · 3 players

Score, worst to bestRMU betterTOL betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Robert Morris

Guards

A. Valentine33 min · TRD. Livingston26 minT. Smith19 minK. Garris16 min · TRE. Cooke9 minL. SloaneNew

Forwards

J. Dunkley29 min · TRK. Ugwuakazi19 min · TRS. Obenjo9 minD. StolbetskiyNewB. OderinloNew

Toledo

Guards

A. Montas31 min · TRS. Jones21 min · TRM. Strong18 minW. James9 minM. JohnsonNewM. MattucciNew

Forwards

J. Ouwinga19 minC. Riddle13 minT. Nwokolo2 minR. BarronNewR. PorterNew

Centers

A. Parks25 min

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

RMU76.8 #122

TOL79.8 #71

Points per possession

RMU1.14 #67

TOL1.15 #62

Pace (possessions)

RMU67.5 #256

TOL69.5 #146

Shooting

Effective FG%

RMU54.9 #39

TOL54.5 #50

3-point %

RMU38.0 #18

TOL37.0 #29

3-point attempt rate

RMU40.7 #154

TOL32.5 #323

Free throw rate

RMU28.0 #343

TOL30.5 #298

Possessions

Turnover rate

RMU18.6 #305

TOL14.7 #51

Offensive rebound rate

RMU37.5 #11

TOL29.5 #220

Assists per game

RMU17.6 #13

TOL15.6 #61

Defense

Points allowed

RMU73.4 #139

TOL77.4 #250

Points allowed per possession

RMU1.08 #174

TOL1.11 #257

Opponent effective FG%

RMU50.0 #100

TOL54.3 #308

Opponent 3-point %

RMU33.2 #135

TOL34.4 #215

Turnovers forced

RMU15.8 #230

TOL17.9 #104

Defensive rebound rate

RMU71.2 #98

TOL66.3 #313

Steals per game

RMU5.5 #292

TOL7.7 #67

Blocks per game

RMU2.5 #308

TOL2.9 #247

RMU		TOL
Scoring
76.8 #122	Points per game	79.8 #71
1.14 #67	Points per possession	1.15 #62
67.5 #256	Pace (possessions)	69.5 #146
Shooting
54.9 #39	Effective FG%	54.5 #50
38.0 #18	3-point %	37.0 #29
40.7 #154	3-point attempt rate	32.5 #323
28.0 #343	Free throw rate	30.5 #298
Possessions
18.6 #305	Turnover rate	14.7 #51
37.5 #11	Offensive rebound rate	29.5 #220
17.6 #13	Assists per game	15.6 #61
Defense
73.4 #139	Points allowed	77.4 #250
1.08 #174	Points allowed per possession	1.11 #257
50.0 #100	Opponent effective FG%	54.3 #308
33.2 #135	Opponent 3-point %	34.4 #215
15.8 #230	Turnovers forced	17.9 #104
71.2 #98	Defensive rebound rate	66.3 #313
5.5 #292	Steals per game	7.7 #67
2.5 #308	Blocks per game	2.9 #247

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Robert Morris

20-11 in 2025-26 overall · 14-8 in conference · Horizon League

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Detroit Mercy64–70
Wvs Youngstown St68–53
Wvs Cleveland St83–64
Wvs Detroit Mercy73–62
W@ Wright St81–68

A week or more of rest.

Toledo

17-15 in 2025-26 overall · 13-8 in conference · Mid-American Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Akron76–79
Wvs UMass77–67
Wvs Bowling Green77–76
Wvs Buffalo99–78
L@ Miami OH72–74

A week or more of rest.

Robert Morris Colonials at Toledo Rockets

What could decide it

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Robert Morris

Toledo

The starting fives are even

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Robert Morris

Toledo