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  2. Sun, Nov 22
  3. RMU vs NMSU
NCAAB · Sun, Nov 22

Robert Morris Colonials vs New Mexico State Aggies

The Reef · Neutral site
#168RMURobert Morris
vs
#133NMSUNew Mexico St
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
RMUThis seasonNMSU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects NMSU 74–72 · win probability NMSU 55%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 146.3
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

RMU 3, NMSU 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
RMUSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: RMU 54.9 and allows 50.0; NMSU 48.5 and allows 48.7
Context
Schedule so far
RMU has played the 280th-hardest schedule, NMSU the 174th. A record against a soft schedule means less
RMUSmall
Three-pointers
RMU hits 38.0% and allows 33.2%; NMSU hits 32.4% and allows 32.4%. Threes are 40.7% and 38.7% of their shots
RMUSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: RMU 37.5%, NMSU 32.5%. Defensive: RMU 71.2%, NMSU 69.7%
NMSUSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: RMU 18.6%, NMSU 15.0%. Forced: RMU 15.8%, NMSU 14.7%
NMSUSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: RMU 28.0, NMSU 34.9. Allowed: RMU 40.1, NMSU 44.2
NMSUSmall
RMU offense vs NMSU defense
Offense 179th of 366 against a defense 125th, on the model’s ratings
Even
NMSU offense vs RMU defense
Offense 151st of 366 against a defense 183rd, on the model’s ratings
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: RMU 32%, NMSU 22%. Transfers in: RMU 4, NMSU 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: RMU plays 67.5 a game (256th fastest), NMSU 68.1 (224th). Faster games mean more points
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—NMSU -1.4—
Total—146.3—
Projected score—RMU 72.4 · NMSU 73.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadNMSU -0.7—
1H total68.5—
1H projected scoreRMU 33.9 · NMSU 34.6—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Robert Morris has the better starters

Position by position: Robert Morris 3, New Mexico St 2, even 0
Robert MorrisBetterNew Mexico St
G A. Valentine TR12 pts · 4 reb · 3.8 ast Score 71
RMUBig
G J. Washington TR11.3 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.8 ast Score 34
G D. Livingston9.6 pts · 2 reb · 2.9 ast Score 23
NMSUBig
G G. Warren TR12.5 pts · 4.6 reb · 1.5 ast Score 68
G T. Smith6.7 pts · 2.2 reb · 1.4 ast Score 30
NMSUBig
G D. Dudley TR14.2 pts · 2.8 reb · 1.8 ast Score 65
F J. Dunkley TR12.4 pts · 6.7 reb · 1 ast Score 74
RMUSmall
F M. Lavrenov TR10.5 pts · 7.3 reb · 0.5 ast Score 40
F K. Ugwuakazi TR5.2 pts · 5.1 reb · 0.6 ast Score 63
RMUSmall
F J. Osborne6.3 pts · 4.8 reb · 0.6 ast Score 42
Robert MorrisBetterNew Mexico St
RMU offense179th of 366 · -5.5
NMSUSmall
NMSU defense125th of 366 · -2.3
RMU defense183rd of 366 · -4.2
Even
NMSU offense151st of 366 · -4.6
Backcourt-2.8 · 3 players
NMSUSmall
Backcourt-1.3 · 3 players
Frontcourt+1.5 · 2 players
RMUBig
Frontcourt-1.5 · 2 players
Bench-0.3 · 3 players
RMUSmall
Bench-2.2 · 3 players
Score, worst to bestRMU betterNMSU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Robert Morris
Guards
A. Valentine33 min · TRD. Livingston26 minT. Smith19 minK. Garris16 min · TRE. Cooke9 minL. SloaneNew
Forwards
J. Dunkley29 min · TRK. Ugwuakazi19 min · TRS. Obenjo9 minD. StolbetskiyNewB. OderinloNew
New Mexico St
Guards
J. Washington35 min · TRG. Warren32 min · TRD. Dudley31 min · TRG. Pickens21 minK. RobinsonNewD. GrantNew
Forwards
M. Lavrenov28 min · TRJ. Osborne24 minS. Payne20 min · TRL. Levillain20 min · TRP. WoodsonNew
Centers
A. DiongueNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
RMUNMSU
Scoring
76.8 #122Points per game73.8 #207
1.14 #67Points per possession1.08 #179
67.5 #256Pace (possessions)68.1 #224
Shooting
54.9 #39Effective FG%48.5 #302
38.0 #183-point %32.4 #257
40.7 #1543-point attempt rate38.7 #198
28.0 #343Free throw rate34.9 #186
Possessions
18.6 #305Turnover rate15.0 #66
37.5 #11Offensive rebound rate32.5 #105
17.6 #13Assists per game12.5 #250
Defense
73.4 #139Points allowed73.8 #150
1.08 #174Points allowed per possession1.08 #179
50.0 #100Opponent effective FG%48.7 #52
33.2 #135Opponent 3-point %32.4 #83
15.8 #230Turnovers forced14.7 #311
71.2 #98Defensive rebound rate69.7 #175
5.5 #292Steals per game5.7 #276
2.5 #308Blocks per game3.0 #221
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Robert Morris

20-11 in 2025-26 overall · 14-8 in conference · Horizon League

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Detroit Mercy64–70
  • Wvs Youngstown St68–53
  • Wvs Cleveland St83–64
  • Wvs Detroit Mercy73–62
  • W@ Wright St81–68

A week or more of rest.

New Mexico St

13-16 in 2025-26 overall · 9-13 in conference · Conference USA

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Sam Houston61–69
  • Wvs Jax State68–63
  • Wvs Kennesaw St79–76
  • Wvs Jax State77–75
  • L@ MTSU85–86

A week or more of rest.