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  2. Thu, Nov 19
  3. NCSU vs MUR
NCAAB · Thu, Nov 19

NC State Wolfpack vs Murray State Racers

Baha Mar Convention Center · Neutral site
#48NCSUNC State
vs
#132MURMurray St
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
NCSUThis seasonMUR
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects NCSU 86–74 · win probability NCSU 86%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 159.6
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: NCSU has more of the edges

NCSU 4, MUR 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
NCSUBig
NCSU offense vs MUR defense
Offense 42nd of 366 against a defense 197th, on the model’s ratings
NCSUBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: NCSU 13.1%, MUR 16.4%. Forced: NCSU 18.2%, MUR 15.7%
Context
Schedule so far
NCSU has played the 51st-hardest schedule, MUR the 165th. A record against a soft schedule means less
MURSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: NCSU 35.1, MUR 38.6. Allowed: NCSU 36.9, MUR 32.2
NCSUSmall
Three-pointers
NCSU hits 38.8% and allows 35.5%; MUR hits 35.0% and allows 36.2%. Threes are 43.4% and 44.8% of their shots
MURSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: NCSU 28.2%, MUR 32.6%. Defensive: NCSU 69.5%, MUR 68.7%
NCSUSmall
MUR offense vs NCSU defense
Offense 110th of 366 against a defense 58th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 71 possessions: NCSU plays 70.2 a game (103rd fastest), MUR 72.3 (30th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: NCSU 55.0 and allows 52.7; MUR 53.8 and allows 52.4
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: NCSU 28%, MUR 28%. Transfers in: NCSU 8, MUR 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—NCSU -12.5—
Total—159.6—
Projected score—NCSU 86.1 · MUR 73.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadNCSU -7.5—
1H total74.6—
1H projected scoreNCSU 41.1 · MUR 33.5—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

NC State has the better starters

Position by position: NC State 3, Murray St 0, even 2
NC StateBetterMurray St
G P. Edmead TR16.5 pts · 3.6 reb · 4.3 ast Score 83
NCSUSmall
G C. Jones TR10 pts · 3 reb · 3.1 ast Score 61
G C. Hammond TR15.7 pts · 2.8 reb · 2.5 ast Score 87
Even
G R. Domon14.2 pts · 5.2 reb · 1.6 ast Score 95
G P. McNeil13.8 pts · 3.6 reb · 0.8 ast Score 90
NCSUBig
G M. Courbon4.6 pts · 2 reb · 1.2 ast Score 31
F K. Evans TR11.8 pts · 8.8 reb · 0.9 ast Score 95
NCSUBig
F S. Tupuola TR6.3 pts · 5.8 reb · 0.8 ast Score 55
F E. Yalaho TR10.1 pts · 5.6 reb · 1.7 ast Score 58
Even
F B. Rogers TR6.7 pts · 3.6 reb · 1.7 ast Score 67
NC StateBetterMurray St
NCSU offense42nd of 366 · +4.6
NCSUBig
MUR defense197th of 366 · -4.8
NCSU defense58th of 366 · +1.3
Even
MUR offense110th of 366 · -1.8
Backcourt+6.7 · 3 players
NCSUBig
Backcourt+2.2 · 3 players
Frontcourt+4.6 · 2 players
NCSUBig
Frontcourt+0.4 · 2 players
Bench+2.9 · 5 players
NCSUBig
Bench-1.0 · 2 players
Score, worst to bestNCSU betterMUR betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
NC State
Guards
P. Edmead35 min · TRC. Hammond30 min · TRP. McNeil29 minD. Adams26 min · TRR. Keene23 min · TRJ. Brim5 min · TR
Forwards
K. Evans30 min · TRE. Yalaho29 min · TRV. Lubin28 minC. Emuobor19 min · TRR. JurkovicNewS. HallNew
Murray St
Guards
C. Jones26 min · TRR. Domon25 minM. Courbon16 minB. Shorter15 minK. Magwood11 min · TRB. ShtolzbergNew
Forwards
S. Tupuola25 min · TRB. Rogers18 min · TRP. NikolicNewJ. BoulefaaNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
NCSUMUR
Scoring
83.2 #25Points per game83.1 #26
1.18 #30Points per possession1.15 #56
70.2 #103Pace (possessions)72.3 #30
Shooting
55.0 #35Effective FG%53.8 #70
38.8 #63-point %35.0 #120
43.4 #1043-point attempt rate44.8 #72
35.1 #175Free throw rate38.6 #86
Possessions
13.1 #7Turnover rate16.4 #160
28.2 #258Offensive rebound rate32.6 #100
15.4 #70Assists per game13.7 #165
Defense
76.3 #224Points allowed80.2 #323
1.09 #186Points allowed per possession1.11 #233
52.7 #256Opponent effective FG%52.4 #236
35.5 #281Opponent 3-point %36.2 #310
18.2 #90Turnovers forced15.7 #234
69.5 #181Defensive rebound rate68.7 #214
8.1 #37Steals per game5.9 #248
3.4 #159Blocks per game4.1 #69
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

NC State

20-14 in 2025-26 overall · 11-9 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Texas66–68
  • Lvs Virginia74–81
  • Wvs Pitt98–88
  • Lvs Stanford84–85
  • Lvs Duke64–93

A week or more of rest.

Murray St

20-13 in 2025-26 overall · 12-9 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Nevada75–89
  • Lvs UIC79–92
  • L@ Bradley78–87
  • Wvs Evansville88–75
  • L@ Illinois St61–78

A week or more of rest.