Georgia Southern Eagles at Houston Christian Huskies: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Nov 19, 12:00 AM ETSharp Gymnasium · at Hou Christian

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: GA Southern and Hou Christian
GASO	This season	HCU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects HCU 75–71 · win probability HCU 63%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 146.1

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

GASO 3, HCU 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

GASOBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: GASO 14.7%, HCU 18.9%. Forced: GASO 18.7%, HCU 17.6%

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: GASO plays 71.8 a game (42nd fastest), HCU 64.7 (352nd). Faster games mean more points

GASOSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: GASO 51.4 and allows 52.3; HCU 49.7 and allows 54.2

HCUSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: GASO 39.6, HCU 36.0. Allowed: GASO 41.4, HCU 30.7

GASOSmall

Three-pointers

GASO hits 33.4% and allows 34.4%; HCU hits 31.7% and allows 35.0%. Threes are 48.9% and 36.5% of their shots

Context

Schedule so far

GASO has played the 279th-hardest schedule, HCU the 332nd. A record against a soft schedule means less

HCUSmall

Home court

HCU at home. This season: HCU 0-0 at home, GASO 0-0 away

HCUSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: GASO 28.8%, HCU 29.9%. Defensive: GASO 64.8%, HCU 67.5%

Even

GASO offense vs HCU defense

Offense 233rd of 366 against a defense 203rd, on the model’s ratings

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: GASO 16%, HCU 25%. Transfers in: GASO 3, HCU 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

HCU offense vs GASO defense

Offense 342nd of 366 against a defense 347th, on the model’s ratings

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	HCU -3.9	—
Total	—	146.1	—
Projected score	—	GASO 71.1 · HCU 75

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	HCU -2.2	—
1H total	68.3	—
1H projected score	GASO 33.1 · HCU 35.3	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GASO WWWWL	17-17	50%	7-7	—
HCU LWLWL	14-16	47%	6-6	—

Venue/role: GASO away; HCU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
GASO UOOUU	19-15	56%	19-16
HCU UUUUU	14-16	47%	10-20

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GASO	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
HCU	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

GA Southern

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 23	@ NKU	No recent meeting
Nov 24	vs BELL	No recent meeting
Nov 28	@ UNCA	W93–90LO

Hou Christian

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 24	@ ULM	W72–61WU
Nov 30	vs WIU	No recent meeting
Dec 2	@ UL	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

GASO 2–0 HCUGASO leads · 2 games since 2021-22 · GASO has won the last 2 meetings · GASO 2-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 29, 2025-26	HCU 62 @ GASO 80	GASO -7.5	GASO W
Nov 19, 2022-23	GASO 84 @ HCU 77	HCU +4.5	GASO W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

GA Southern

35 games played

Straight up

19-16

54% wins

Against the spread

17-17

50% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

19-15

56% overs · avg +2.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

19-1654%

L W W L L L L W W W W W W W W L W L L L W L L L W L L L W W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

17-1750%

W L W W L L L W W L W W W W W L L L L L–L L L W L L L W W W W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

19-1556%

O O O U U U U U O O O U O O O O O U U O–U U O O U O U O O U O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@ECU	L 89-92	+5.5	W +2.5	151.5	O 181
Nov 8	vsUNCA	W 93-90	-5.5	L −2.5	162.5	O 183
Nov 11	@FGCU	W 95-94	+3.5	W +4.5	163.5	O 189
Nov 18	@GT	L 66-68	+10.5	W +8.5	164.5	U 134
Nov 21	@FSU	L 72-98	+18.5	L −7.5	175.5	U 170
Nov 24	vsYSU	L 61-67	+1.5	L −4.5	163.5	U 128
Nov 25	vsUTSA	L 64-77	-3.5	L −16.5	160.5	U 141
Nov 29	vsHCU	W 80-62	-7.5	W +10.5	148.5	U 142
Dec 3	vsLT	W 77-69	-1.5	W +6.5	145.5	O 146
Dec 6	@GWEB	W 88-84	-10.5	L −6.5	162.5	O 172
Dec 13	@WGA	W 91-85	-3.5	W +2.5	154.5	O 176
Dec 18	vsGAST	W 90-67	-9.5	W +13.5	159.5	U 157
Dec 20	vsJMU	W 96-92	-2.5	W +1.5	153.5	O 188
Jan 1	@CCU	W 82-81	+1.5	W +2.5	157.5	O 163
Jan 3	@ODU	W 93-86	-1.5	W +5.5	161.5	O 179
Jan 10	@USA	L 71-87	+2.5	L −13.5	148.5	O 158
Jan 15	vsODU	W 87-84	-5.5	L −2.5	162.5	O 171
Jan 17	vsCCU	L 75-79	-6.5	L −10.5	157.5	U 154
Jan 22	vsARST	L 68-85	+1.5	L −15.5	172.5	U 153
Jan 24	vsTROY	L 78-83	+4.5	L −0.5	159.5	O 161
Jan 30	vsULM	W 79-76	—	—	—	—
Jan 31	@UL	L 60-69	-2.5	L −11.5	144.5	U 129
Feb 4	vsTXST	L 71-77	-4.5	L −10.5	151.5	U 148
Feb 11	vsAPP	L 65-81	+1.5	L −14.5	143.5	O 146
Feb 14	vsMRSH	W 101-87	+2.5	W +16.5	162.5	O 188
Feb 19	@GAST	L 64-66	-1.5	L −3.5	154.5	U 130
Feb 21	@APP	L 74-89	+7.5	L −7.5	147.5	O 163
Feb 25	@JMU	L 66-82	+5.5	L −10.5	153.5	U 148
Feb 27	@MRSH	W 99-82	+7.5	W +24.5	168.5	O 181
Mar 4	vsODU	W 88-84	-2.5	W +1.5	157.5	O 172
Mar 5	vsARST	W 80-77	+7.5	W +10.5	165.5	U 157
Mar 6	vsUSA	W 94-85	+4.5	W +13.5	149.5	O 179
Mar 7	vsCCU	W 96-72	+1.5	W +25.5	151.5	O 168
Mar 8	vsMRSH	W 82-78	+2.5	W +6.5	166.5	U 160
Mar 9	vsTROY	L 61-77	+5.5	L −10.5	152.5	U 138

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ECU

L 89-92

+2.5

UNCA

W 93-90

−2.5

FGCU

W 95-94

+4.5

L 66-68

+8.5

FSU

L 72-98

−7.5

YSU

L 61-67

−4.5

UTSA

L 64-77

−16.5

HCU

W 80-62

+10.5

W 77-69

+6.5

GWEB

W 88-84

−6.5

WGA

W 91-85

+2.5

GAST

W 90-67

+13.5

JMU

W 96-92

+1.5

CCU

W 82-81

+2.5

ODU

W 93-86

+5.5

USA

L 71-87

−13.5

ODU

W 87-84

−2.5

CCU

L 75-79

−10.5

ARST

L 68-85

−15.5

TROY

L 78-83

−0.5

L 60-69

−11.5

TXST

L 71-77

−10.5

APP

L 65-81

−14.5

MRSH

W 101-87

+16.5

GAST

L 64-66

−3.5

APP

L 74-89

−7.5

JMU

L 66-82

−10.5

MRSH

W 99-82

+24.5

ODU

W 88-84

+1.5

ARST

W 80-77

+10.5

USA

W 94-85

+13.5

CCU

W 96-72

+25.5

MRSH

W 82-78

+6.5

TROY

L 61-77

−10.5

covered 17didn’t cover 17avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ECU

L 89-92

+29.5

UNCA

W 93-90

+20.5

FGCU

W 95-94

+25.5

L 66-68

−30.5

FSU

L 72-98

−5.5

YSU

L 61-67

−35.5

UTSA

L 64-77

−19.5

HCU

W 80-62

−6.5

W 77-69

+0.5

GWEB

W 88-84

+9.5

WGA

W 91-85

+21.5

GAST

W 90-67

−2.5

JMU

W 96-92

+34.5

CCU

W 82-81

+5.5

ODU

W 93-86

+17.5

USA

L 71-87

+9.5

ODU

W 87-84

+8.5

CCU

L 75-79

−3.5

ARST

L 68-85

−19.5

TROY

L 78-83

+1.5

L 60-69

−15.5

TXST

L 71-77

−3.5

APP

L 65-81

+2.5

MRSH

W 101-87

+25.5

GAST

L 64-66

−24.5

APP

L 74-89

+15.5

JMU

L 66-82

−5.5

MRSH

W 99-82

+12.5

ODU

W 88-84

+14.5

ARST

W 80-77

−8.5

USA

W 94-85

+29.5

CCU

W 96-72

+16.5

MRSH

W 82-78

−6.5

TROY

L 61-77

−14.5

over 19under 15avg +2.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Hou Christian

30 games played

Straight up

10-20

33% wins

Against the spread

14-16

47% covers · avg −0.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-16

47% overs · avg −0.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

10-2033%

L W L W L L W L L L L L L L L W W L W L L L L W W L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

14-1647%

L W L W L W W L W L W L L L W W L L W W L L W L W L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

14-1647%

U U U U U O O O O O O U O O U O O U O O U U O U O U U U U U

5 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@UCSD	L 60-78	+7.5	L −10.5	141.5	U 138
Nov 13	vsULM	W 72-61	-8.5	W +2.5	143.5	U 133
Nov 25	@BELL	L 69-74	-2.5	L −7.5	144.5	U 143
Nov 26	@CIT	W 72-65	-1.5	W +5.5	137.5	U 137
Nov 29	@GASO	L 62-80	+7.5	L −10.5	148.5	U 142
Dec 2	@UNT	L 75-77	+11.5	W +9.5	127.5	O 152
Dec 6	@NOLA	W 85-76	+4.5	W +13.5	140.5	O 161
Dec 13	vsSELA	L 71-74	-2.5	L −5.5	132.5	O 145
Dec 15	vsMCN	L 68-78	+14.5	W +4.5	137.5	O 146
Dec 17	@NICH	L 64-79	+3.5	L −11.5	137.5	O 143
Dec 29	@ISU	L 61-89	+35.5	W +7.5	145.5	O 150
Jan 3	@UIW	L 56-73	+6.5	L −10.5	141.5	U 129
Jan 5	vsAMCC	L 65-81	+3.5	L −12.5	132.5	O 146
Jan 10	@SFA	L 67-85	+12.5	L −5.5	137.5	O 152
Jan 12	@LAM	L 56-64	+8.5	W +0.5	134.5	U 120
Jan 17	vsETAM	W 81-70	-2.5	W +8.5	139.5	O 151
Jan 19	vsNWST	W 82-80	-2.5	L −0.5	139.5	O 162
Jan 24	vsRGV	L 51-68	+2.5	L −14.5	140.5	U 119
Jan 27	vsUIW	W 81-75	+1.5	W +7.5	140.5	O 156
Jan 31	@AMCC	L 71-73	+7.5	W +5.5	135.5	O 144
Feb 2	@RGV	L 57-74	+9.5	L −7.5	141.5	U 131
Feb 7	@SELA	L 47-55	+4.5	L −3.5	133.5	U 102
Feb 9	@MCN	L 69-73	+21.5	W +17.5	137.5	O 142
Feb 14	vsNOLA	W 61-60	-1.5	L −0.5	148.5	U 121
Feb 16	vsNICH	W 72-68	-1.5	W +2.5	136.5	O 140
Feb 21	@NWST	L 53-71	+2.5	L −15.5	134.5	U 124
Feb 23	@ETAM	W 69-68	+2.5	W +3.5	138.5	U 137
Feb 28	vsSFA	L 56-77	+8.5	L −12.5	138.5	U 133
Mar 2	vsLAM	W 75-53	+2.5	W +24.5	132.5	U 128
Mar 8	vsNOLA	L 60-73	+5.5	L −7.5	143.5	U 133

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UCSD

L 60-78

−10.5

ULM

W 72-61

+2.5

BELL

L 69-74

−7.5

CIT

W 72-65

+5.5

GASO

L 62-80

−10.5

UNT

L 75-77

+9.5

NOLA

W 85-76

+13.5

SELA

L 71-74

−5.5

MCN

L 68-78

+4.5

NICH

L 64-79

−11.5

ISU

L 61-89

+7.5

UIW

L 56-73

−10.5

AMCC

L 65-81

−12.5

SFA

L 67-85

−5.5

LAM

L 56-64

+0.5

ETAM

W 81-70

+8.5

NWST

W 82-80

−0.5

RGV

L 51-68

−14.5

UIW

W 81-75

+7.5

AMCC

L 71-73

+5.5

RGV

L 57-74

−7.5

SELA

L 47-55

−3.5

MCN

L 69-73

+17.5

NOLA

W 61-60

−0.5

NICH

W 72-68

+2.5

NWST

L 53-71

−15.5

ETAM

W 69-68

+3.5

SFA

L 56-77

−12.5

LAM

W 75-53

+24.5

NOLA

L 60-73

−7.5

covered 14didn’t cover 16avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UCSD

L 60-78

−3.5

ULM

W 72-61

−10.5

BELL

L 69-74

−1.5

CIT

W 72-65

−0.5

GASO

L 62-80

−6.5

UNT

L 75-77

+24.5

NOLA

W 85-76

+20.5

SELA

L 71-74

+12.5

MCN

L 68-78

+8.5

NICH

L 64-79

+5.5

ISU

L 61-89

+4.5

UIW

L 56-73

−12.5

AMCC

L 65-81

+13.5

SFA

L 67-85

+14.5

LAM

L 56-64

−14.5

ETAM

W 81-70

+11.5

NWST

W 82-80

+22.5

RGV

L 51-68

−21.5

UIW

W 81-75

+15.5

AMCC

L 71-73

+8.5

RGV

L 57-74

−10.5

SELA

L 47-55

−31.5

MCN

L 69-73

+4.5

NOLA

W 61-60

−27.5

NICH

W 72-68

+3.5

NWST

L 53-71

−10.5

ETAM

W 69-68

−1.5

SFA

L 56-77

−5.5

LAM

W 75-53

−4.5

NOLA

L 60-73

−10.5

over 14under 16avg −0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Hou Christian has the better starters

Position by position: GA Southern 0, Hou Christian 3, even 2

GA SouthernBetterHou Christian

G J. Dixon TR9 pts · 1 reb · 1.5 ast Score 39

Even

G C. Mubiru TR6.7 pts · 4 reb · 1.9 ast Score 37

G D. Williams3.6 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.3 ast Score 10

HCUBig

G D. Samuels8.7 pts · 3.3 reb · 2 ast Score 46

G J. Williams1 pts · 1.1 reb · 0.4 ast Not ranked

No call

G E. Pippa-White TR4.3 pts · 1.7 reb · 2.1 ast Score 5

F T. Claytor TR6.5 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.6 ast Score 8

HCUSmall

F S. Simmons TR6.7 pts · 5.2 reb · 1.2 ast Score 33

F T. Sotirov2.5 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.3 ast Score 1

HCUSmall

F M. Mara5.4 pts · 3.9 reb · 0.8 ast Score 33

GA SouthernBetterHou Christian

GASO offense233rd of 366 · -7.2

Even

HCU defense203rd of 366 · -5.0

GASO defense347th of 366 · -9.4

Even

HCU offense342nd of 366 · -11.7

Backcourt-3.8 · 3 players

Even

Backcourt-4.6 · 3 players

Frontcourt-3.7 · 2 players

HCUSmall

Frontcourt-2.3 · 2 players

Bench-0.8 · 1 player

GASOBig

Bench-3.9 · 3 players

Score, worst to bestGASO betterHCU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

GA Southern

Guards

J. Dixon19 min · TRD. Williams12 minJ. Williams8 minD. GardnerNewA. HendersonNewR. WilliamsNew

Forwards

T. Claytor17 min · TRT. Sotirov11 minE. Smith6 min · TRC. CrissmanNewE. SavaneNewE. JamesNew

Hou Christian

Guards

C. Mubiru27 min · TRD. Samuels23 minE. Pippa-White18 min · TRB. Alvarez15 min · TRK. Clark7 minM. AlexanderNew

Forwards

S. Simmons26 min · TRM. Mara20 minA. Miller15 min · TRI. SackoNewK. KeinysNewJ. PapeNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

GASO79.9 #69

HCU66.3 #342

Points per possession

GASO1.12 #109

HCU1.03 #297

Pace (possessions)

GASO71.8 #42

HCU64.7 #352

Shooting

Effective FG%

GASO51.4 #176

HCU49.7 #252

3-point %

GASO33.4 #207

HCU31.7 #291

3-point attempt rate

GASO48.9 #20

HCU36.5 #239

Free throw rate

GASO39.6 #62

HCU36.0 #151

Possessions

Turnover rate

GASO14.7 #49

HCU18.9 #317

Offensive rebound rate

GASO28.8 #238

HCU29.9 #205

Assists per game

GASO10.7 #344

HCU13.7 #164

Defense

Points allowed

GASO80.3 #325

HCU72.4 #113

Points allowed per possession

GASO1.11 #259

HCU1.12 #268

Opponent effective FG%

GASO52.3 #230

HCU54.2 #304

Opponent 3-point %

GASO34.4 #208

HCU35.0 #248

Turnovers forced

GASO18.7 #65

HCU17.6 #117

Defensive rebound rate

GASO64.8 #342

HCU67.5 #279

Steals per game

GASO8.1 #36

HCU6.3 #200

Blocks per game

GASO3.6 #128

HCU3.7 #111

GASO		HCU
Scoring
79.9 #69	Points per game	66.3 #342
1.12 #109	Points per possession	1.03 #297
71.8 #42	Pace (possessions)	64.7 #352
Shooting
51.4 #176	Effective FG%	49.7 #252
33.4 #207	3-point %	31.7 #291
48.9 #20	3-point attempt rate	36.5 #239
39.6 #62	Free throw rate	36.0 #151
Possessions
14.7 #49	Turnover rate	18.9 #317
28.8 #238	Offensive rebound rate	29.9 #205
10.7 #344	Assists per game	13.7 #164
Defense
80.3 #325	Points allowed	72.4 #113
1.11 #259	Points allowed per possession	1.12 #268
52.3 #230	Opponent effective FG%	54.2 #304
34.4 #208	Opponent 3-point %	35.0 #248
18.7 #65	Turnovers forced	17.6 #117
64.8 #342	Defensive rebound rate	67.5 #279
8.1 #36	Steals per game	6.3 #200
3.6 #128	Blocks per game	3.7 #111

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

GA Southern

19-16 in 2025-26 overall · 13-11 in conference · Sun Belt Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Troy61–77
Wvs Marshall82–78
Wvs Coastal96–72
Wvs South Alabama94–85
Wvs Arkansas St80–77

A week or more of rest.

Hou Christian

10-20 in 2025-26 overall · 8-15 in conference · Southland Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs LSU N Orleans60–73
Wvs Lamar75–53
Lvs SF Austin56–77
W@ East Texas A&M69–68
L@ N'Western St53–71

A week or more of rest.

Georgia Southern Eagles at Houston Christian Huskies

What could decide it

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

GA Southern

Hou Christian

Hou Christian has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

GA Southern

Hou Christian