1. NCAAB
  2. Thu, Nov 19
  3. UCSB @ PEPP
NCAAB · Thu, Nov 19

UC Santa Barbara Gauchos at Pepperdine Waves

Firestone Fieldhouse · at Pepperdine
#134UCSBSanta Barbara
@
#172PEPPPepperdine
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
UCSBThis seasonPEPP
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UCSB 75–75 · win probability UCSB 51%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 150.1
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UCSB has more of the edges

UCSB 5, PEPP 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
UCSBBig
Three-pointers
UCSB hits 37.4% and allows 33.9%; PEPP hits 31.4% and allows 35.5%. Threes are 44.1% and 39.2% of their shots
UCSBBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UCSB 31.0%, PEPP 29.1%. Defensive: UCSB 74.5%, PEPP 66.0%
UCSBBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: UCSB 54.7 and allows 52.6; PEPP 47.6 and allows 54.2
PEPPSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: UCSB 36.8, PEPP 33.9. Allowed: UCSB 42.4, PEPP 28.5
UCSBSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UCSB 53%, PEPP 5%. Transfers in: UCSB 5, PEPP 7. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Schedule so far
UCSB has played the 203rd-hardest schedule, PEPP the 128th. A record against a soft schedule means less
UCSBSmall
UCSB offense vs PEPP defense
Offense 150th of 366 against a defense 216th, on the model’s ratings
PEPPSmall
Home court
PEPP at home. This season: PEPP 0-0 at home, UCSB 0-0 away
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: UCSB plays 68.2 a game (218th fastest), PEPP 70.0 (117th). Faster games mean more points
Even
PEPP offense vs UCSB defense
Offense 139th of 366 against a defense 128th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UCSB 18.8%, PEPP 18.3%. Forced: UCSB 16.8%, PEPP 16.5%
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—UCSB -0.4—
Total—150.1—
Projected score—UCSB 75.2 · PEPP 74.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadUCSB -0.4—
1H total70.2—
1H projected scoreUCSB 35.3 · PEPP 34.9—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Pepperdine has the better starters

Position by position: Santa Barbara 0, Pepperdine 2, even 3
Santa BarbaraBetterPepperdine
G V. Vartiainen TR12.9 pts · 3.3 reb · 0.9 ast Score 52
Even
G J. Williamson TR10.4 pts · 2 reb · 0.8 ast Score 58
G M. Little12.7 pts · 5.6 reb · 4.8 ast Score 91
No call
G W. McClendon TR13.7 pts · 3 reb · 1.3 ast Not ranked
G C. Shaw11.6 pts · 1.8 reb · 2.3 ast Score 62
PEPPSmall
F P. Majstorovic TR14.4 pts · 6.3 reb · 1.8 ast Score 78
G R. Smith TR6.6 pts · 2.4 reb · 2.4 ast Score 43
PEPPSmall
F Y. Fritz TR9.8 pts · 5.4 reb · 1.5 ast Score 58
C E. Dibami TR9.5 pts · 7.3 reb · 1.4 ast Score 45
Even
F E. Meuser TR6.1 pts · 5.2 reb · 1.3 ast Score 39
Santa BarbaraBetterPepperdine
UCSB offense150th of 366 · -4.5
UCSBSmall
PEPP defense216th of 366 · -5.6
UCSB defense128th of 366 · -2.3
Even
PEPP offense139th of 366 · -4.2
Backcourt+1.4 · 4 players
Even
Backcourt+1.6 · 2 players
Frontcourt-0.1 · 1 player
PEPPSmall
Frontcourt+1.2 · 3 players
Bench-3.2 · 5 players
PEPPSmall
Bench-1.6 · 3 players
Score, worst to bestUCSB betterPEPP betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Santa Barbara
Guards
V. Vartiainen31 min · TRM. Little30 minC. Shaw29 minR. Smith28 min · TRM. McGhee21 minL. Zuffelato4 min
Forwards
A. Chol24 min · TRM. Simcoe9 minD. Duru7 min · TRK. Keat Tong6 minK. Haughy2 minJ. Simcoe2 min
Centers
E. Dibami29 min · TRM. John WuolNew
Pepperdine
Guards
J. Williamson26 min · TRW. McClendon25 min · TRE. Haywood19 min · TRD. Mager10 minA. BalianNewC. ChouNew
Forwards
P. Majstorovic32 min · TRY. Fritz26 min · TRE. Meuser21 min · TRA. Robinson10 min · TRA. ConstanzaNewF. BiberovicNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
UCSBPEPP
Scoring
76.7 #127Points per game70.4 #277
1.13 #87Points per possession1.00 #320
68.2 #218Pace (possessions)70.0 #117
Shooting
54.7 #47Effective FG%47.6 #323
37.4 #233-point %31.4 #310
44.1 #873-point attempt rate39.2 #187
36.8 #134Free throw rate33.9 #216
Possessions
18.8 #312Turnover rate18.3 #288
31.0 #165Offensive rebound rate29.1 #234
14.1 #140Assists per game13.6 #176
Defense
73.7 #148Points allowed79.7 #311
1.08 #156Points allowed per possession1.14 #303
52.6 #244Opponent effective FG%54.2 #306
33.9 #177Opponent 3-point %35.5 #276
16.8 #170Turnovers forced16.5 #184
74.5 #14Defensive rebound rate66.0 #318
6.2 #216Steals per game5.9 #246
2.3 #322Blocks per game2.8 #269
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Santa Barbara

16-14 in 2025-26 overall · 11-10 in conference · Big West Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs UC Davis73–79
  • Lvs UC San Diego63–64
  • L@ UC Irvine60–64
  • Wvs UC Riverside70–59
  • L@ Hawai'i75–78

A week or more of rest.

Pepperdine

7-23 in 2025-26 overall · 4-15 in conference · West Coast Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Portland68–77
  • Wvs Washington St88–79
  • Lvs Seattle U80–87
  • L@ Oregon St73–83
  • W@ Portland95–87

A week or more of rest.