1. NCAAB
  2. Thu, Nov 19
  3. SUU @ TEX
NCAAB · Thu, Nov 19

Southern Utah Thunderbirds at Texas Longhorns

Moody Center · at Texas
#267SUUSouthern Utah
@
#11TEXTexas AP #7
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
SUUThis seasonTEX
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TEX 96–62 · win probability TEX 100%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 158.3
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: TEX has more of the edges

SUU 0, TEX 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
TEXBig
TEX offense vs SUU defense
Offense 7th of 366 against a defense 329th, on the model’s ratings
TEXBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: SUU 28.8%, TEX 35.4%. Defensive: SUU 66.4%, TEX 73.1%
TEXBig
SUU offense vs TEX defense
Offense 211th of 366 against a defense 17th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
SUU has played the 187th-hardest schedule, TEX the 27th. A record against a soft schedule means less
TEXBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: SUU 50.8 and allows 53.3; TEX 54.1 and allows 50.8
TEXBig
Three-pointers
SUU hits 33.0% and allows 38.0%; TEX hits 35.1% and allows 34.7%. Threes are 35.5% and 35.8% of their shots
TEXBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: SUU 20.3%, TEX 15.0%. Forced: SUU 14.8%, TEX 13.0%
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: SUU plays 71.2 a game (62nd fastest), TEX 68.7 (199th). Faster games mean more points
TEXSmall
Home court
TEX at home. This season: TEX 0-0 at home, SUU 0-0 away
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: SUU 27%, TEX 14%. Transfers in: SUU 1, TEX 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: SUU 33.1, TEX 44.2. Allowed: SUU 29.8, TEX 39.6
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—TEX -34.4—
Total—158.3—
Projected score—SUU 61.9 · TEX 96.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadTEX -20.3—
1H total74.0—
1H projected scoreSUU 26.8 · TEX 47.1—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Texas has the better starters

Position by position: Southern Utah 0, Texas 1, even 4
Southern UtahBetterTexas
G B. Johnson0 pts · 0.3 reb · 0.9 ast Not ranked
No call
G I. Johnson TR16.9 pts · 2.9 reb · 3 ast Score 98
G Z. Kidd0.3 pts · 0.8 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked
No call
G E. Freeman TR9.2 pts · 5.2 reb · 1.2 ast Score 85
F J. Feroah14 pts · 6.9 reb · 1.8 ast Score 87
Even
G M. Lewis TR14 pts · 2.6 reb · 2 ast Score 86
F J. Nicholls TR10.8 pts · 5.3 reb · 0.4 ast Score 95
Even
F D. Punch TR14.1 pts · 6.8 reb · 2 ast Score 96
F C. Barclay4.5 pts · 2.7 reb · 0.9 ast Score 8
TEXBig
C M. Vokietaitis15.5 pts · 7 reb · 0.7 ast Score 95
Southern UtahBetterTexas
SUU offense211th of 366 · -6.4
TEXBig
TEX defense17th of 366 · +6.2
SUU defense329th of 366 · -8.6
TEXBig
TEX offense7th of 366 · +10.5
Backcourt-0.4 · 2 players
TEXBig
Backcourt+8.6 · 3 players
Frontcourt+3.8 · 3 players
TEXBig
Frontcourt+9.8 · 2 players
BenchNo numbers yet
No call
Bench+0.9 · 2 players
Score, worst to bestSUU betterTEX betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Southern Utah
Guards
B. Johnson4 minZ. Kidd3 minD. SandersNewA. BrelandNewJ. BrownNewC. DegraffenriedNew
Forwards
J. Feroah31 minJ. Nicholls18 min · TRC. Barclay16 minJ. RiakNewJ. NichollsNewD. SmithNew
Centers
M. ProtsenkoNew
Texas
Guards
I. Johnson31 min · TRE. Freeman27 min · TRM. Lewis27 min · TRA. Evans14 min · TRA. McDermott3 minB. OgdenNew
Forwards
D. Punch30 min · TRJ. ClarkNewM. SpearsNewC. ElkinsNew
Centers
M. Vokietaitis26 minL. ObiorahNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
SUUTEX
Scoring
72.3 #235Points per game81.7 #34
1.01 #310Points per possession1.19 #22
71.2 #62Pace (possessions)68.7 #199
Shooting
50.8 #200Effective FG%54.1 #65
33.0 #2313-point %35.1 #107
35.5 #2613-point attempt rate35.8 #254
33.1 #235Free throw rate44.2 #7
Possessions
20.3 #352Turnover rate15.0 #68
28.8 #239Offensive rebound rate35.4 #35
12.9 #223Assists per game12.1 #278
Defense
81.3 #335Points allowed76.1 #220
1.14 #308Points allowed per possession1.11 #235
53.3 #276Opponent effective FG%50.8 #144
38.0 #358Opponent 3-point %34.7 #230
14.8 #302Turnovers forced13.0 #356
66.4 #309Defensive rebound rate73.1 #35
5.2 #317Steals per game5.5 #298
4.1 #60Blocks per game2.9 #239
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Southern Utah

7-22 in 2025-26 overall · 6-13 in conference · Big Sky Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs UT Arlington63–69
  • Lvs CA Baptist75–82
  • Lvs Utah Valley88–92
  • Wvs Utah Tech81–67
  • L@ Abilene Chrstn83–87

A week or more of rest.

Texas

20-15 in 2025-26 overall · 9-10 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Purdue77–79
  • Wvs Gonzaga74–68
  • Wvs BYU79–71
  • Wvs NC State68–66
  • Lvs Ole Miss66–76

A week or more of rest.