Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles at Texas Longhorns: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Nov 22, 12:00 AM ETMoody Center · at Texas

#304USISouthern Indiana Screaming Eagles

#11TEXTexas AP #7

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles and Texas
USI	This season	TEX
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TEX 94–57 · win probability TEX 100%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 150.1

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: TEX has more of the edges

USI 0, TEX 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

Context

Schedule so far

USI has played the 362nd-hardest schedule, TEX the 27th. A record against a soft schedule means less

TEXBig

USI offense vs TEX defense

Offense 320th of 366 against a defense 17th, on the model’s ratings

TEXBig

TEX offense vs USI defense

Offense 7th of 366 against a defense 243rd, on the model’s ratings

TEXBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: USI 31.4%, TEX 35.4%. Defensive: USI 66.2%, TEX 73.1%

TEXBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: USI 43.7 and allows 49.4; TEX 54.1 and allows 50.8

TEXSmall

Three-pointers

USI hits 29.9% and allows 34.1%; TEX hits 35.1% and allows 34.7%. Threes are 39.8% and 35.8% of their shots

TEXSmall

Home court

TEX at home. This season: TEX 0-0 at home, USI 0-0 away

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: USI 0%, TEX 14%. Transfers in: USI 0, TEX 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: USI 37.2, TEX 44.2. Allowed: USI 36.2, TEX 39.6

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: USI 17.1%, TEX 15.0%. Forced: USI 16.5%, TEX 13.0%

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: USI plays 69.0 a game (177th fastest), TEX 68.7 (199th). Faster games mean more points

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	TEX -36.9	—
Total	—	150.1	—
Projected score	—	USI 56.6 · TEX 93.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	TEX -21.8	—
1H total	70.2	—
1H projected score	USI 24.2 · TEX 46	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USI LWWWL	12-16	43%	8-7	—
TEX LWWWW	20-15	57%	8-9	—

Venue/role: USI away; TEX home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
USI OOOUO	11-17	39%	5-23
TEX UUUUO	20-15	57%	20-15

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USI	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
TEX	4-6 40%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 24	@ VMI	L74–78LU
Nov 28	vs BALL	No recent meeting
Dec 1	@ WGA	No recent meeting

Texas

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 26	vs GTWN	No recent meeting
Dec 1	@ LOU	W81–80LO
Dec 8	vs JKST	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles

28 games played

Straight up

5-23

18% wins

Against the spread

12-16

43% covers · avg −1.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

11-17

39% overs · avg −3.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-2318%

L L L L L W L L L L L L L L W L L W L L L L L L W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

12-1643%

L L L W W W L L L L W W L L W W L W L L L L W L W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

11-1739%

U U U O O U O U U U U O O U U U U O U U U O U O O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	@BTLR	L 58-88	+22.5	L −7.5	156.5	U 146
Nov 7	vsVMI	L 74-78	+2.5	L −1.5	153.5	U 152
Nov 12	@SDAK	L 74-89	+7.5	L −7.5	164.5	U 163
Nov 20	vsUIW	L 81-87	+9.5	W +3.5	145.5	O 168
Nov 22	vsUIC	L 73-84	+11.5	W +0.5	153.5	O 157
Nov 26	@VAL	W 64-56	+9.5	W +17.5	150.5	U 120
Dec 3	@WMU	L 74-88	+5.5	L −8.5	150.5	O 162
Dec 7	@INST	L 55-77	+11.5	L −10.5	158.5	U 132
Dec 18	vsLR	L 62-77	+2.5	L −12.5	140.5	U 139
Dec 20	vsMORE	L 60-64	+1.5	L −2.5	145.5	U 124
Jan 1	@SIUE	L 55-59	+10.5	W +6.5	136.5	U 114
Jan 3	@LIN	L 80-83	+9.5	W +6.5	147.5	O 163
Jan 8	vsSEMO	L 76-84	+7.5	L −0.5	146.5	O 160
Jan 10	vsUTM	L 56-73	+5.5	L −11.5	137.5	U 129
Jan 15	@TNTC	W 71-54	+5.5	W +22.5	142.5	U 125
Jan 17	@TNST	L 67-73	+8.5	W +2.5	150.5	U 140
Jan 22	vsEIU	L 51-59	-2.5	L −10.5	135.5	U 110
Jan 23	vsWIU	W 96-64	-6.5	W +25.5	136.5	O 160
Jan 29	vsLIN	L 60-73	+4.5	L −8.5	150.5	U 133
Jan 31	vsSIUE	L 46-58	+1.5	L −10.5	130.5	U 104
Feb 5	@UTM	L 54-76	+10.5	L −11.5	132.5	U 130
Feb 7	@SEMO	L 65-90	+11.5	L −13.5	141.5	O 155
Feb 12	vsTNST	L 71-73	+6.5	W +4.5	147.5	U 144
Feb 14	vsTNTC	L 74-82	+1.5	L −6.5	140.5	O 156
Feb 19	@WIU	W 77-70	-3.5	W +3.5	140.5	O 147
Feb 21	@EIU	W 70-68	+4.5	W +6.5	135.5	O 138
Feb 24	@MORE	L 63-64	+7.5	W +6.5	142.5	U 127
Feb 28	@LR	L 70-89	+5.5	L −13.5	139.5	O 159

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BTLR

L 58-88

−7.5

VMI

L 74-78

−1.5

SDAK

L 74-89

−7.5

UIW

L 81-87

+3.5

UIC

L 73-84

+0.5

VAL

W 64-56

+17.5

WMU

L 74-88

−8.5

INST

L 55-77

−10.5

L 62-77

−12.5

L 60-64

−2.5

SIUE

L 55-59

+6.5

LIN

L 80-83

+6.5

SEMO

L 76-84

−0.5

UTM

L 56-73

−11.5

TNTC

W 71-54

+22.5

TNST

L 67-73

+2.5

EIU

L 51-59

−10.5

WIU

W 96-64

+25.5

LIN

L 60-73

−8.5

SIUE

L 46-58

−10.5

UTM

L 54-76

−11.5

SEMO

L 65-90

−13.5

TNST

L 71-73

+4.5

TNTC

L 74-82

−6.5

WIU

W 77-70

+3.5

EIU

W 70-68

+6.5

L 63-64

+6.5

L 70-89

−13.5

covered 12didn’t cover 16avg −1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BTLR

L 58-88

−10.5

VMI

L 74-78

−1.5

SDAK

L 74-89

−1.5

UIW

L 81-87

+22.5

UIC

L 73-84

+3.5

VAL

W 64-56

−30.5

WMU

L 74-88

+11.5

INST

L 55-77

−26.5

L 62-77

−1.5

L 60-64

−21.5

SIUE

L 55-59

−22.5

LIN

L 80-83

+15.5

SEMO

L 76-84

+13.5

UTM

L 56-73

−8.5

TNTC

W 71-54

−17.5

TNST

L 67-73

−10.5

EIU

L 51-59

−25.5

WIU

W 96-64

+23.5

LIN

L 60-73

−17.5

SIUE

L 46-58

−26.5

UTM

L 54-76

−2.5

SEMO

L 65-90

+13.5

TNST

L 71-73

−3.5

TNTC

L 74-82

+15.5

WIU

W 77-70

+6.5

EIU

W 70-68

+2.5

L 63-64

−15.5

L 70-89

+19.5

over 11under 17avg −3.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Texas

35 games played

Straight up

20-15

57% wins

Against the spread

20-15

57% covers · avg +0.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

20-15

57% overs · avg +2.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

20-1557%

L W W W W L W L W L W W L L W W L L W L W W W W W L L W L L L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

20-1557%

L W W L W L W L W W W L L L W W L W W W W L W W L L L W L L L W W W W

4 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

20-1557%

U O U U O O O O O U U O O O O U U O U O U O O O O O U U O O U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsDUKE	L 60-75	+10.5	L −4.5	153.5	U 135
Nov 8	vsLAF	W 97-60	-25.5	W +11.5	153.5	O 157
Nov 12	vsFDU	W 93-58	-31.5	W +3.5	158.5	U 151
Nov 15	vsKC	W 71-55	-31.5	L −15.5	159.5	U 126
Nov 18	vsRID	W 99-65	-30.5	W +3.5	143.5	O 164
Nov 24	vsASU	L 86-87	-6.5	L −7.5	153.5	O 173
Nov 26	vsNCSU	W 102-97	+1.5	W +6.5	161.5	O 199
Dec 3	vsUVA	L 69-88	-3.5	L −22.5	154.5	O 157
Dec 8	vsSOU	W 95-69	-22.5	W +3.5	158.5	O 164
Dec 12	@CONN	L 63-71	+11.5	W +3.5	145.5	U 134
Dec 16	vsLEM	W 95-53	-29.5	W +12.5	152.5	U 148
Dec 22	vsUMES	W 94-71	-33.5	L −10.5	138.5	O 165
Jan 3	vsMSST	L 98-101	-9.5	L −12.5	157.5	O 199
Jan 6	@TENN	L 71-85	+12.5	L −1.5	153.5	O 156
Jan 10	@ALA	W 92-88	+11.5	W +15.5	177.5	O 180
Jan 14	vsVAN	W 80-64	+3.5	W +19.5	163.5	U 144
Jan 17	vsTA&M	L 70-74	-4.5	L −8.5	166.5	U 144
Jan 21	@UK	L 80-85	+7.5	W +2.5	152.5	O 165
Jan 24	vsUGA	W 87-67	-3.5	W +16.5	168.5	U 154
Jan 28	@AUB	L 82-88	+6.5	W +0.5	154.5	O 170
Jan 31	@OU	W 79-69	-1.5	W +8.5	155.5	U 148
Feb 3	vsSC	W 84-75	-13.5	L −4.5	149.5	O 159
Feb 7	vsMISS	W 79-68	-9.5	W +1.5	145.5	O 147
Feb 14	@MIZ	W 85-68	+2.5	W +19.5	150.5	O 153
Feb 17	vsLSU	W 88-85	-10.5	L −7.5	150.5	O 173
Feb 21	@UGA	L 80-91	+2.5	L −8.5	162.5	O 171
Feb 25	vsFLA	L 71-84	+6.5	L −6.5	157.5	U 155
Feb 28	@TA&M	W 76-70	+2.5	W +8.5	159.5	U 146
Mar 4	@ARK	L 85-105	+6.5	L −13.5	163.5	O 190
Mar 7	vsOU	L 85-88	-6.5	L −9.5	154.5	O 173
Mar 11	vsMISS	L 66-76	-5.5	L −15.5	147.5	U 142
Mar 17	vsNCSU	W 68-66	+1.5	W +3.5	157.5	U 134
Mar 19	vsBYU	W 79-71	+2.5	W +10.5	156.5	U 150
Mar 21	vsGONZ	W 74-68	+5.5	W +11.5	146.5	U 142
Mar 26	vsPUR	L 77-79	+8.5	W +6.5	146.5	O 156

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DUKE

L 60-75

−4.5

LAF

W 97-60

+11.5

FDU

W 93-58

+3.5

W 71-55

−15.5

RID

W 99-65

+3.5

ASU

L 86-87

−7.5

NCSU

W 102-97

+6.5

UVA

L 69-88

−22.5

SOU

W 95-69

+3.5

CONN

L 63-71

+3.5

LEM

W 95-53

+12.5

UMES

W 94-71

−10.5

MSST

L 98-101

−12.5

TENN

L 71-85

−1.5

ALA

W 92-88

+15.5

VAN

W 80-64

+19.5

TA&M

L 70-74

−8.5

L 80-85

+2.5

UGA

W 87-67

+16.5

AUB

L 82-88

+0.5

W 79-69

+8.5

W 84-75

−4.5

MISS

W 79-68

+1.5

MIZ

W 85-68

+19.5

LSU

W 88-85

−7.5

UGA

L 80-91

−8.5

FLA

L 71-84

−6.5

TA&M

W 76-70

+8.5

ARK

L 85-105

−13.5

L 85-88

−9.5

MISS

L 66-76

−15.5

NCSU

W 68-66

+3.5

BYU

W 79-71

+10.5

GONZ

W 74-68

+11.5

PUR

L 77-79

+6.5

covered 20didn’t cover 15avg +0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DUKE

L 60-75

−18.5

LAF

W 97-60

+3.5

FDU

W 93-58

−7.5

W 71-55

−33.5

RID

W 99-65

+20.5

ASU

L 86-87

+19.5

NCSU

W 102-97

+37.5

UVA

L 69-88

+2.5

SOU

W 95-69

+5.5

CONN

L 63-71

−11.5

LEM

W 95-53

−4.5

UMES

W 94-71

+26.5

MSST

L 98-101

+41.5

TENN

L 71-85

+2.5

ALA

W 92-88

+2.5

VAN

W 80-64

−19.5

TA&M

L 70-74

−22.5

L 80-85

+12.5

UGA

W 87-67

−14.5

AUB

L 82-88

+15.5

W 79-69

−7.5

W 84-75

+9.5

MISS

W 79-68

+1.5

MIZ

W 85-68

+2.5

LSU

W 88-85

+22.5

UGA

L 80-91

+8.5

FLA

L 71-84

−2.5

TA&M

W 76-70

−13.5

ARK

L 85-105

+26.5

L 85-88

+18.5

MISS

L 66-76

−5.5

NCSU

W 68-66

−23.5

BYU

W 79-71

−6.5

GONZ

W 74-68

−4.5

PUR

L 77-79

+9.5

over 20under 15avg +2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

USI67.0 #333

TEX81.7 #34

Points per possession

USI0.97 #346

TEX1.19 #22

Pace (possessions)

USI69.0 #177

TEX68.7 #199

Shooting

Effective FG%

USI43.7 #363

TEX54.1 #65

3-point %

USI29.9 #345

TEX35.1 #107

3-point attempt rate

USI39.8 #178

TEX35.8 #254

Free throw rate

USI37.2 #123

TEX44.2 #7

Possessions

Turnover rate

USI17.1 #212

TEX15.0 #68

Offensive rebound rate

USI31.4 #145

TEX35.4 #35

Assists per game

USI9.7 #360

TEX12.1 #278

Defense

Points allowed

USI74.3 #165

TEX76.1 #220

Points allowed per possession

USI1.08 #165

TEX1.11 #235

Opponent effective FG%

USI49.4 #80

TEX50.8 #144

Opponent 3-point %

USI34.1 #193

TEX34.7 #230

Turnovers forced

USI16.5 #183

TEX13.0 #356

Defensive rebound rate

USI66.2 #315

TEX73.1 #35

Steals per game

USI6.2 #210

TEX5.5 #298

Blocks per game

USI4.2 #56

TEX2.9 #239

USI		TEX
Scoring
67.0 #333	Points per game	81.7 #34
0.97 #346	Points per possession	1.19 #22
69.0 #177	Pace (possessions)	68.7 #199
Shooting
43.7 #363	Effective FG%	54.1 #65
29.9 #345	3-point %	35.1 #107
39.8 #178	3-point attempt rate	35.8 #254
37.2 #123	Free throw rate	44.2 #7
Possessions
17.1 #212	Turnover rate	15.0 #68
31.4 #145	Offensive rebound rate	35.4 #35
9.7 #360	Assists per game	12.1 #278
Defense
74.3 #165	Points allowed	76.1 #220
1.08 #165	Points allowed per possession	1.11 #235
49.4 #80	Opponent effective FG%	50.8 #144
34.1 #193	Opponent 3-point %	34.7 #230
16.5 #183	Turnovers forced	13.0 #356
66.2 #315	Defensive rebound rate	73.1 #35
6.2 #210	Steals per game	5.5 #298
4.2 #56	Blocks per game	2.9 #239

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles

5-23 in 2025-26 overall · 4-16 in conference · Ohio Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Little Rock70–89
L@ Morehead St63–64
W@ E Illinois70–68
W@ W Illinois77–70
Lvs Tennessee Tech74–82

A week or more of rest.

Texas

20-15 in 2025-26 overall · 9-10 in conference · Southeastern Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Purdue77–79
Wvs Gonzaga74–68
Wvs BYU79–71
Wvs NC State68–66
Lvs Ole Miss66–76

A week or more of rest.

Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles at Texas Longhorns

What could decide it: TEX has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles

Texas

Matchup stats

Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles

Texas