Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles at VMI Keydets: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 24, 6:00 PM ETCameron Hall · at VMI

#304USISouthern Indiana Screaming Eagles

#320VMIVMI

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles and VMI
USI	This season	VMI
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects VMI 73–73 · win probability VMI 53%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 145.9

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: USI has more of the edges

USI 5, VMI 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

USIBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: USI 43.7 and allows 49.4; VMI 47.5 and allows 57.0

USIBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: USI 31.4%, VMI 25.6%. Defensive: USI 66.2%, VMI 62.8%

Context

Schedule so far

USI has played the 362nd-hardest schedule, VMI the 253rd. A record against a soft schedule means less

VMISmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: USI 0%, VMI 59%. Transfers in: USI 0, VMI 1. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

USISmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: USI 37.2, VMI 30.6. Allowed: USI 36.2, VMI 34.6

VMISmall

Home court

VMI at home. This season: VMI 0-0 at home, USI 0-0 away

USISmall

Three-pointers

USI hits 29.9% and allows 34.1%; VMI hits 31.5% and allows 36.5%. Threes are 39.8% and 53.6% of their shots

USISmall

VMI offense vs USI defense

Offense 288th of 366 against a defense 243rd, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: USI plays 69.0 a game (177th fastest), VMI 67.6 (251st). Faster games mean more points

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: USI 17.1%, VMI 15.3%. Forced: USI 16.5%, VMI 15.7%

Even

USI offense vs VMI defense

Offense 320th of 366 against a defense 342nd, on the model’s ratings

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	VMI -0.9	—
Total	—	145.9	—
Projected score	—	USI 72.5 · VMI 73.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	VMI -0.4	—
1H total	68.3	—
1H projected score	USI 33.9 · VMI 34.3	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
USI LWWWL	12-16	43%	8-7	—
VMI WLLWL	9-20	31%	2-9	—

Venue/role: USI away; VMI home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
USI OOOUO	11-17	39%	5-23
VMI UUUOU	13-16	45%	3-26

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
USI	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
VMI	0-10 0%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 28	vs BALL	No recent meeting
Dec 1	@ WGA	No recent meeting
Dec 6	@ INST	L55–77LU

VMI

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 28	@ RICH	L54–87LU
Dec 1	vs UNCG	L70–84LU
Dec 5	vs ETSU	L70–87LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

USI 0–1 VMIVMI leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · USI 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 7, 2025-26	VMI 78 @ USI 74	USI +2.5	VMI W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles

28 games played

Straight up

5-23

18% wins

Against the spread

12-16

43% covers · avg −1.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

11-17

39% overs · avg −3.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-2318%

L L L L L W L L L L L L L L W L L W L L L L L L W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

12-1643%

L L L W W W L L L L W W L L W W L W L L L L W L W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

11-1739%

U U U O O U O U U U U O O U U U U O U U U O U O O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	@BTLR	L 58-88	+22.5	L −7.5	156.5	U 146
Nov 7	vsVMI	L 74-78	+2.5	L −1.5	153.5	U 152
Nov 12	@SDAK	L 74-89	+7.5	L −7.5	164.5	U 163
Nov 20	vsUIW	L 81-87	+9.5	W +3.5	145.5	O 168
Nov 22	vsUIC	L 73-84	+11.5	W +0.5	153.5	O 157
Nov 26	@VAL	W 64-56	+9.5	W +17.5	150.5	U 120
Dec 3	@WMU	L 74-88	+5.5	L −8.5	150.5	O 162
Dec 7	@INST	L 55-77	+11.5	L −10.5	158.5	U 132
Dec 18	vsLR	L 62-77	+2.5	L −12.5	140.5	U 139
Dec 20	vsMORE	L 60-64	+1.5	L −2.5	145.5	U 124
Jan 1	@SIUE	L 55-59	+10.5	W +6.5	136.5	U 114
Jan 3	@LIN	L 80-83	+9.5	W +6.5	147.5	O 163
Jan 8	vsSEMO	L 76-84	+7.5	L −0.5	146.5	O 160
Jan 10	vsUTM	L 56-73	+5.5	L −11.5	137.5	U 129
Jan 15	@TNTC	W 71-54	+5.5	W +22.5	142.5	U 125
Jan 17	@TNST	L 67-73	+8.5	W +2.5	150.5	U 140
Jan 22	vsEIU	L 51-59	-2.5	L −10.5	135.5	U 110
Jan 23	vsWIU	W 96-64	-6.5	W +25.5	136.5	O 160
Jan 29	vsLIN	L 60-73	+4.5	L −8.5	150.5	U 133
Jan 31	vsSIUE	L 46-58	+1.5	L −10.5	130.5	U 104
Feb 5	@UTM	L 54-76	+10.5	L −11.5	132.5	U 130
Feb 7	@SEMO	L 65-90	+11.5	L −13.5	141.5	O 155
Feb 12	vsTNST	L 71-73	+6.5	W +4.5	147.5	U 144
Feb 14	vsTNTC	L 74-82	+1.5	L −6.5	140.5	O 156
Feb 19	@WIU	W 77-70	-3.5	W +3.5	140.5	O 147
Feb 21	@EIU	W 70-68	+4.5	W +6.5	135.5	O 138
Feb 24	@MORE	L 63-64	+7.5	W +6.5	142.5	U 127
Feb 28	@LR	L 70-89	+5.5	L −13.5	139.5	O 159

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BTLR

L 58-88

−7.5

VMI

L 74-78

−1.5

SDAK

L 74-89

−7.5

UIW

L 81-87

+3.5

UIC

L 73-84

+0.5

VAL

W 64-56

+17.5

WMU

L 74-88

−8.5

INST

L 55-77

−10.5

L 62-77

−12.5

L 60-64

−2.5

SIUE

L 55-59

+6.5

LIN

L 80-83

+6.5

SEMO

L 76-84

−0.5

UTM

L 56-73

−11.5

TNTC

W 71-54

+22.5

TNST

L 67-73

+2.5

EIU

L 51-59

−10.5

WIU

W 96-64

+25.5

LIN

L 60-73

−8.5

SIUE

L 46-58

−10.5

UTM

L 54-76

−11.5

SEMO

L 65-90

−13.5

TNST

L 71-73

+4.5

TNTC

L 74-82

−6.5

WIU

W 77-70

+3.5

EIU

W 70-68

+6.5

L 63-64

+6.5

L 70-89

−13.5

covered 12didn’t cover 16avg −1.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BTLR

L 58-88

−10.5

VMI

L 74-78

−1.5

SDAK

L 74-89

−1.5

UIW

L 81-87

+22.5

UIC

L 73-84

+3.5

VAL

W 64-56

−30.5

WMU

L 74-88

+11.5

INST

L 55-77

−26.5

L 62-77

−1.5

L 60-64

−21.5

SIUE

L 55-59

−22.5

LIN

L 80-83

+15.5

SEMO

L 76-84

+13.5

UTM

L 56-73

−8.5

TNTC

W 71-54

−17.5

TNST

L 67-73

−10.5

EIU

L 51-59

−25.5

WIU

W 96-64

+23.5

LIN

L 60-73

−17.5

SIUE

L 46-58

−26.5

UTM

L 54-76

−2.5

SEMO

L 65-90

+13.5

TNST

L 71-73

−3.5

TNTC

L 74-82

+15.5

WIU

W 77-70

+6.5

EIU

W 70-68

+2.5

L 63-64

−15.5

L 70-89

+19.5

over 11under 17avg −3.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

VMI

29 games played

Straight up

3-26

10% wins

Against the spread

9-20

31% covers · avg −5.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-16

45% overs · avg −0.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-2610%

W L L L L L L L W L L W L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L L

17 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

9-2031%

W L L L L L L W W W L W W L L L L L L W L L L L W L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

13-1645%

U O U U O U U U O O U O O U U O O U U O U O O O U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@USI	W 78-74	-2.5	W +1.5	153.5	U 152
Nov 9	@MIZ	L 68-106	+23.5	L −14.5	161.5	O 174
Nov 15	vsJAX	L 67-69	+1.5	L −0.5	151.5	U 136
Nov 19	@RICH	L 54-87	+14.5	L −18.5	152.5	U 141
Nov 22	@STET	L 80-99	-2.5	L −21.5	148.5	O 179
Nov 24	vsBUF	L 70-78	+5.5	L −2.5	150.5	U 148
Nov 26	vsBGSU	L 48-81	+11.5	L −21.5	148.5	U 129
Nov 29	@UCF	L 57-82	+25.5	W +0.5	159.5	U 139
Dec 9	vsL-MD	W 86-70	+2.5	W +18.5	151.5	O 156
Dec 21	@RAD	L 90-97	+11.5	W +4.5	158.5	O 187
Jan 1	vsSAM	L 58-78	+6.5	L −13.5	154.5	U 136
Jan 3	vsUTC	W 79-71	+6.5	W +14.5	149.5	O 150
Jan 7	@ETSU	L 67-81	+16.5	W +2.5	146.5	O 148
Jan 10	@FUR	L 48-69	+12.5	L −8.5	149.5	U 117
Jan 15	vsMER	L 67-77	+8.5	L −1.5	153.5	U 144
Jan 17	vsCIT	L 68-82	-6.5	L −20.5	143.5	O 150
Jan 21	vsUNCG	L 78-85	+2.5	L −4.5	151.5	O 163
Jan 24	@WCU	L 58-88	+8.5	L −21.5	152.5	U 146
Jan 29	@CIT	L 56-80	+2.5	L −21.5	142.5	U 136
Jan 31	@MER	L 81-95	+18.5	W +4.5	153.5	O 176
Feb 4	vsWOF	L 67-81	+8.5	L −5.5	149.5	U 148
Feb 7	vsETSU	L 70-87	+14.5	L −2.5	143.5	O 157
Feb 11	@UNCG	L 71-92	+8.5	L −12.5	150.5	O 163
Feb 14	vsFUR	L 72-90	+11.5	L −6.5	148.5	O 162
Feb 18	@WOF	L 76-82	+13.5	W +7.5	158.5	U 158
Feb 21	vsWCU	L 62-81	+8.5	L −10.5	154.5	U 143
Feb 26	@SAM	L 61-80	+17.5	L −1.5	155.5	U 141
Feb 28	@UTC	L 79-86	+11.5	W +4.5	154.5	O 165
Mar 6	vsUNCG	L 70-84	+7.5	L −6.5	154.5	U 154

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

USI

W 78-74

+1.5

MIZ

L 68-106

−14.5

JAX

L 67-69

−0.5

RICH

L 54-87

−18.5

STET

L 80-99

−21.5

BUF

L 70-78

−2.5

BGSU

L 48-81

−21.5

UCF

L 57-82

+0.5

L-MD

W 86-70

+18.5

RAD

L 90-97

+4.5

SAM

L 58-78

−13.5

UTC

W 79-71

+14.5

ETSU

L 67-81

+2.5

FUR

L 48-69

−8.5

MER

L 67-77

−1.5

CIT

L 68-82

−20.5

UNCG

L 78-85

−4.5

WCU

L 58-88

−21.5

CIT

L 56-80

−21.5

MER

L 81-95

+4.5

WOF

L 67-81

−5.5

ETSU

L 70-87

−2.5

UNCG

L 71-92

−12.5

FUR

L 72-90

−6.5

WOF

L 76-82

+7.5

WCU

L 62-81

−10.5

SAM

L 61-80

−1.5

UTC

L 79-86

+4.5

UNCG

L 70-84

−6.5

covered 9didn’t cover 20avg −5.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

USI

W 78-74

−1.5

MIZ

L 68-106

+12.5

JAX

L 67-69

−15.5

RICH

L 54-87

−11.5

STET

L 80-99

+30.5

BUF

L 70-78

−2.5

BGSU

L 48-81

−19.5

UCF

L 57-82

−20.5

L-MD

W 86-70

+4.5

RAD

L 90-97

+28.5

SAM

L 58-78

−18.5

UTC

W 79-71

+0.5

ETSU

L 67-81

+1.5

FUR

L 48-69

−32.5

MER

L 67-77

−9.5

CIT

L 68-82

+6.5

UNCG

L 78-85

+11.5

WCU

L 58-88

−6.5

CIT

L 56-80

−6.5

MER

L 81-95

+22.5

WOF

L 67-81

−1.5

ETSU

L 70-87

+13.5

UNCG

L 71-92

+12.5

FUR

L 72-90

+13.5

WOF

L 76-82

−0.5

WCU

L 62-81

−11.5

SAM

L 61-80

−14.5

UTC

L 79-86

+10.5

UNCG

L 70-84

−0.5

over 13under 16avg −0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

USI67.0 #333

VMI68.5 #306

Points per possession

USI0.97 #346

VMI1.01 #311

Pace (possessions)

USI69.0 #177

VMI67.6 #251

Shooting

Effective FG%

USI43.7 #363

VMI47.5 #325

3-point %

USI29.9 #345

VMI31.5 #306

3-point attempt rate

USI39.8 #178

VMI53.6 #2

Free throw rate

USI37.2 #123

VMI30.6 #293

Possessions

Turnover rate

USI17.1 #212

VMI15.3 #88

Offensive rebound rate

USI31.4 #145

VMI25.6 #330

Assists per game

USI9.7 #360

VMI11.6 #309

Defense

Points allowed

USI74.3 #165

VMI83.2 #348

Points allowed per possession

USI1.08 #165

VMI1.23 #362

Opponent effective FG%

USI49.4 #80

VMI57.0 #357

Opponent 3-point %

USI34.1 #193

VMI36.5 #327

Turnovers forced

USI16.5 #183

VMI15.7 #239

Defensive rebound rate

USI66.2 #315

VMI62.8 #360

Steals per game

USI6.2 #210

VMI6.6 #160

Blocks per game

USI4.2 #56

VMI2.0 #343

USI		VMI
Scoring
67.0 #333	Points per game	68.5 #306
0.97 #346	Points per possession	1.01 #311
69.0 #177	Pace (possessions)	67.6 #251
Shooting
43.7 #363	Effective FG%	47.5 #325
29.9 #345	3-point %	31.5 #306
39.8 #178	3-point attempt rate	53.6 #2
37.2 #123	Free throw rate	30.6 #293
Possessions
17.1 #212	Turnover rate	15.3 #88
31.4 #145	Offensive rebound rate	25.6 #330
9.7 #360	Assists per game	11.6 #309
Defense
74.3 #165	Points allowed	83.2 #348
1.08 #165	Points allowed per possession	1.23 #362
49.4 #80	Opponent effective FG%	57.0 #357
34.1 #193	Opponent 3-point %	36.5 #327
16.5 #183	Turnovers forced	15.7 #239
66.2 #315	Defensive rebound rate	62.8 #360
6.2 #210	Steals per game	6.6 #160
4.2 #56	Blocks per game	2.0 #343

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles

5-23 in 2025-26 overall · 4-16 in conference · Ohio Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ Little Rock70–89
L@ Morehead St63–64
W@ E Illinois70–68
W@ W Illinois77–70
Lvs Tennessee Tech74–82

A week or more of rest.

VMI

3-26 in 2025-26 overall · 1-18 in conference · Southern Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs UNC Greensboro70–84
L@ Chattanooga79–86
L@ Samford61–80
Lvs W Carolina62–81
L@ Wofford76–82

A week or more of rest.

Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles at VMI Keydets

What could decide it: USI has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles

VMI

Matchup stats

Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles

VMI