1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Nov 24
  3. MER @ FAU
NCAAB · Tue, Nov 24

Mercer Bears at Florida Atlantic Owls

Abessinio Court at Eleanor R. Baldwin Arena · at FAU
#242MERMercer
@
#109FAUFAU
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
MERThis seasonFAU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects FAU 84–72 · win probability FAU 86%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 156.1
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: FAU has more of the edges

MER 2, FAU 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
FAUBig
FAU offense vs MER defense
Offense 85th of 366 against a defense 268th, on the model’s ratings
MERBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: MER 39.2, FAU 33.3. Allowed: MER 29.7, FAU 36.2
MERBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: MER 15.0%, FAU 17.6%. Forced: MER 17.0%, FAU 15.5%
FAUSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: MER 32.6%, FAU 31.6%. Defensive: MER 66.8%, FAU 71.7%
Context
Schedule so far
MER has played the 193rd-hardest schedule, FAU the 101st. A record against a soft schedule means less
FAUSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: MER 53.1 and allows 52.5; FAU 52.2 and allows 49.5
FAUSmall
Home court
FAU at home. This season: FAU 0-0 at home, MER 0-0 away
FAUSmall
MER offense vs FAU defense
Offense 223rd of 366 against a defense 174th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: MER plays 69.5 a game (148th fastest), FAU 71.1 (71st). Faster games mean more points
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: MER 28%, FAU 17%. Transfers in: MER 2, FAU 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Three-pointers
MER hits 35.6% and allows 36.2%; FAU hits 33.3% and allows 33.8%. Threes are 39.2% and 38.2% of their shots
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—FAU -12.3—
Total—156.1—
Projected score—MER 71.9 · FAU 84.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadFAU -7.2—
1H total72.9—
1H projected scoreMER 32.9 · FAU 40.1—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

FAU has the better starters

Position by position: Mercer 0, FAU 3, even 2
MercerBetterFAU
G B. Shoulders9.5 pts · 6.6 reb · 1.8 ast Score 41
FAUBig
G B. Speed TR15.8 pts · 4.4 reb · 3.7 ast Score 82
G Q. Perkins8.7 pts · 1.4 reb · 1.6 ast Score 22
FAUBig
G J. Hamilton TR17.8 pts · 4.5 reb · 2.2 ast Score 93
F K. Steele TR8 pts · 4.4 reb · 0.9 ast Score 62
Even
G K. Carlyle14.5 pts · 3.7 reb · 2.8 ast Score 73
F M. Mabor Makoi TR1.4 pts · 2.4 reb · 0.1 ast Score 10
FAUSmall
G M. Charles TR10.5 pts · 4 reb · 1.4 ast Score 32
F P. Padegimas NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
No call
F M. Porter-Brown TR7.8 pts · 3.2 reb · 0.6 ast Score 42
MercerBetterFAU
MER offense223rd of 366 · -6.8
Even
FAU defense174th of 366 · -3.9
MER defense268th of 366 · -6.8
FAUBig
FAU offense85th of 366 · +0.4
Backcourt-3.4 · 2 players
FAUBig
Backcourt+4.0 · 4 players
Frontcourt-0.6 · 3 players
Even
Frontcourt-0.6 · 1 player
BenchNo numbers yet
No call
Bench-0.2 · 3 players
Score, worst to bestMER betterFAU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Mercer
Guards
B. Shoulders32 minQ. Perkins24 minM. KoveosNewD. BarrNewH. LyttleNewK. LamonteNew
Forwards
K. Steele21 min · TRM. Mabor Makoi8 min · TRP. PadegimasNewS. MayhughNewD. KovacevicNew
FAU
Guards
B. Speed34 min · TRJ. Hamilton32 min · TRK. Carlyle31 minM. Charles30 min · TRL. Dayco-Green2 minL. Smith1 min
Forwards
M. Porter-Brown20 min · TRJ. HarrisNewM. PuodziukaitisNewD. MusisNew
Centers
K. Mullen6 min · TRT. IfaolaNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
MERFAU
Scoring
80.1 #65Points per game77.2 #111
1.15 #55Points per possession1.09 #170
69.5 #148Pace (possessions)71.1 #71
Shooting
53.1 #98Effective FG%52.2 #135
35.6 #873-point %33.3 #210
39.2 #1883-point attempt rate38.2 #208
39.2 #74Free throw rate33.3 #231
Possessions
15.0 #67Turnover rate17.6 #246
32.6 #102Offensive rebound rate31.6 #140
12.7 #240Assists per game13.0 #210
Defense
77.8 #263Points allowed75.3 #198
1.12 #273Points allowed per possession1.06 #108
52.5 #242Opponent effective FG%49.5 #81
36.2 #311Opponent 3-point %33.8 #169
17.0 #155Turnovers forced15.5 #252
66.8 #303Defensive rebound rate71.7 #78
7.1 #115Steals per game5.7 #272
3.2 #186Blocks per game5.3 #11
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Mercer

16-13 in 2025-26 overall · 11-8 in conference · Southern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs W Carolina73–77
  • Wvs ETSU82–76
  • L@ W Carolina74–78
  • Wvs Samford89–86
  • Lvs Chattanooga90–94

A week or more of rest.

FAU

16-15 in 2025-26 overall · 10-10 in conference · American Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs North Texas70–74
  • Wvs Temple63–59
  • L@ Wichita St70–88
  • Wvs Charlotte77–76
  • Wvs Temple77–73

A week or more of rest.