1. NCAAB
  2. Mon, Nov 23
  3. SUU vs ARST
NCAAB · Mon, Nov 23

Southern Utah Thunderbirds vs Arkansas State Red Wolves

Ocean Bank Convocation Center · Neutral site
#267SUUSouthern Utah
vs
#171ARSTArkansas St
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
SUUThis seasonARST
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ARST 82–77 · win probability ARST 65%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 158.7
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ARST has more of the edges

SUU 0, ARST 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
ARSTBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: SUU 28.8%, ARST 38.2%. Defensive: SUU 66.4%, ARST 73.0%
ARSTBig
ARST offense vs SUU defense
Offense 122nd of 366 against a defense 329th, on the model’s ratings
ARSTBig
Three-pointers
SUU hits 33.0% and allows 38.0%; ARST hits 32.9% and allows 32.9%. Threes are 35.5% and 44.9% of their shots
ARSTSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: SUU 50.8 and allows 53.3; ARST 51.7 and allows 50.3
Even
SUU offense vs ARST defense
Offense 211th of 366 against a defense 252nd, on the model’s ratings
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: SUU 27%, ARST 6%. Transfers in: SUU 1, ARST 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Schedule so far
SUU has played the 187th-hardest schedule, ARST the 221st. A record against a soft schedule means less
Context
Tempo
About 72 possessions: SUU plays 71.2 a game (62nd fastest), ARST 73.4 (16th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: SUU 33.1, ARST 39.1. Allowed: SUU 29.8, ARST 37.0
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: SUU 20.3%, ARST 19.8%. Forced: SUU 14.8%, ARST 14.9%
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—ARST -4.5—
Total—158.7—
Projected score—SUU 77.1 · ARST 81.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadARST -2.6—
1H total74.1—
1H projected scoreSUU 35.8 · ARST 38.3—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Southern Utah has the better starters

Position by position: Southern Utah 2, Arkansas St 0, even 3
Southern UtahBetterArkansas St
G B. Johnson0 pts · 0.3 reb · 0.9 ast Not ranked
No call
G J. Pyke TR12.3 pts · 5.1 reb · 1.5 ast Score 83
G Z. Kidd0.3 pts · 0.8 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked
No call
G L. Taylor TR8 pts · 2.7 reb · 3.2 ast Score 45
F J. Feroah14 pts · 6.9 reb · 1.8 ast Score 87
SUUBig
G R. Blue Smith4.8 pts · 1.5 reb · 1 ast Score 33
F J. Nicholls TR10.8 pts · 5.3 reb · 0.4 ast Score 95
SUUBig
F A. Doumbia TR3.1 pts · 3.9 reb · 0.2 ast Score 36
F C. Barclay4.5 pts · 2.7 reb · 0.9 ast Score 8
No call
F D. Muon NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
Southern UtahBetterArkansas St
SUU offense211th of 366 · -6.4
Even
ARST defense252nd of 366 · -6.6
SUU defense329th of 366 · -8.6
ARSTBig
ARST offense122nd of 366 · -3.2
Backcourt-0.4 · 2 players
Even
Backcourt-0.1 · 3 players
Frontcourt+3.8 · 3 players
SUUBig
Frontcourt-0.6 · 2 players
BenchNo numbers yet
No call
BenchNo numbers yet
Score, worst to bestSUU betterARST betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Southern Utah
Guards
B. Johnson4 minZ. Kidd3 minD. SandersNewA. BrelandNewJ. BrownNewC. DegraffenriedNew
Forwards
J. Feroah31 minJ. Nicholls18 min · TRC. Barclay16 minJ. RiakNewJ. NichollsNewD. SmithNew
Centers
M. ProtsenkoNew
Arkansas St
Guards
J. Pyke26 min · TRL. Taylor25 min · TRR. Blue Smith13 minC. WatsonNewT. FergusonNewC. GeathersNew
Forwards
A. Doumbia14 min · TRD. MuonNewG. BennettNewA. MaigaNewR. OmedNewM. SyNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
SUUARST
Scoring
72.3 #235Points per game81.8 #33
1.01 #310Points per possession1.11 #117
71.2 #62Pace (possessions)73.4 #16
Shooting
50.8 #200Effective FG%51.7 #164
33.0 #2313-point %32.9 #240
35.5 #2613-point attempt rate44.9 #70
33.1 #235Free throw rate39.1 #78
Possessions
20.3 #352Turnover rate19.8 #344
28.8 #239Offensive rebound rate38.2 #6
12.9 #223Assists per game15.3 #77
Defense
81.3 #335Points allowed78.0 #268
1.14 #308Points allowed per possession1.07 #121
53.3 #276Opponent effective FG%50.3 #117
38.0 #358Opponent 3-point %32.9 #115
14.8 #302Turnovers forced14.9 #298
66.4 #309Defensive rebound rate73.0 #36
5.2 #317Steals per game7.2 #110
4.1 #60Blocks per game2.8 #268
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Southern Utah

7-22 in 2025-26 overall · 6-13 in conference · Big Sky Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs UT Arlington63–69
  • Lvs CA Baptist75–82
  • Lvs Utah Valley88–92
  • Wvs Utah Tech81–67
  • L@ Abilene Chrstn83–87

A week or more of rest.

Arkansas St

18-12 in 2025-26 overall · 11-8 in conference · Sun Belt Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs GA Southern77–80
  • Wvs Louisiana81–58
  • Wvs Southern Miss89–84
  • W@ UL Monroe102–94
  • W@ Louisiana79–62

A week or more of rest.