Georgia Southern Eagles at Northern Kentucky Norse: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 23, 7:00 PM ETTruist Arena · at N Kentucky

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: GA Southern and N Kentucky
GASO	This season	NKU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects NKU 81–74 · win probability NKU 75%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 154.9

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: NKU has more of the edges

GASO 2, NKU 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

NKUBig

NKU offense vs GASO defense

Offense 209th of 366 against a defense 347th, on the model’s ratings

NKUBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: GASO 28.8%, NKU 32.2%. Defensive: GASO 64.8%, NKU 68.4%

GASOSmall

Three-pointers

GASO hits 33.4% and allows 34.4%; NKU hits 33.6% and allows 36.6%. Threes are 48.9% and 44.9% of their shots

GASOSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: GASO 14.7%, NKU 16.3%. Forced: GASO 18.7%, NKU 18.6%

NKUSmall

Home court

NKU at home. This season: NKU 0-0 at home, GASO 0-0 away

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: GASO 16%, NKU 26%. Transfers in: GASO 3, NKU 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

GASO offense vs NKU defense

Offense 233rd of 366 against a defense 249th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: GASO 39.6, NKU 35.9. Allowed: GASO 41.4, NKU 37.2

Context

Schedule so far

GASO has played the 279th-hardest schedule, NKU the 289th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Tempo

About 72 possessions: GASO plays 71.8 a game (42nd fastest), NKU 71.5 (55th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: GASO 51.4 and allows 52.3; NKU 53.2 and allows 54.2

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	NKU -7.6	—
Total	—	154.9	—
Projected score	—	GASO 73.6 · NKU 81.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	NKU -4.4	—
1H total	72.4	—
1H projected score	GASO 34 · NKU 38.4	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GASO WWWWL	17-17	50%	7-7	—
NKU WLWWL	13-18	42%	7-7	—

Venue/role: GASO away; NKU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
GASO UOOUU	19-15	56%	19-16
NKU UOOOO	21-10	68%	17-14

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GASO	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
NKU	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

GA Southern

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 24	vs BELL	No recent meeting
Nov 28	@ UNCA	W93–90LO
Dec 2	@ UPST	No recent meeting

N Kentucky

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 25	vs BELL	W80–76LO
Dec 2	@ OAK	W85–84WO
Dec 5	@ DETM	L77–90LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

GA Southern

35 games played

Straight up

19-16

54% wins

Against the spread

17-17

50% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

19-15

56% overs · avg +2.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

19-1654%

L W W L L L L W W W W W W W W L W L L L W L L L W L L L W W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

17-1750%

W L W W L L L W W L W W W W W L L L L L–L L L W L L L W W W W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

19-1556%

O O O U U U U U O O O U O O O O O U U O–U U O O U O U O O U O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@ECU	L 89-92	+5.5	W +2.5	151.5	O 181
Nov 8	vsUNCA	W 93-90	-5.5	L −2.5	162.5	O 183
Nov 11	@FGCU	W 95-94	+3.5	W +4.5	163.5	O 189
Nov 18	@GT	L 66-68	+10.5	W +8.5	164.5	U 134
Nov 21	@FSU	L 72-98	+18.5	L −7.5	175.5	U 170
Nov 24	vsYSU	L 61-67	+1.5	L −4.5	163.5	U 128
Nov 25	vsUTSA	L 64-77	-3.5	L −16.5	160.5	U 141
Nov 29	vsHCU	W 80-62	-7.5	W +10.5	148.5	U 142
Dec 3	vsLT	W 77-69	-1.5	W +6.5	145.5	O 146
Dec 6	@GWEB	W 88-84	-10.5	L −6.5	162.5	O 172
Dec 13	@WGA	W 91-85	-3.5	W +2.5	154.5	O 176
Dec 18	vsGAST	W 90-67	-9.5	W +13.5	159.5	U 157
Dec 20	vsJMU	W 96-92	-2.5	W +1.5	153.5	O 188
Jan 1	@CCU	W 82-81	+1.5	W +2.5	157.5	O 163
Jan 3	@ODU	W 93-86	-1.5	W +5.5	161.5	O 179
Jan 10	@USA	L 71-87	+2.5	L −13.5	148.5	O 158
Jan 15	vsODU	W 87-84	-5.5	L −2.5	162.5	O 171
Jan 17	vsCCU	L 75-79	-6.5	L −10.5	157.5	U 154
Jan 22	vsARST	L 68-85	+1.5	L −15.5	172.5	U 153
Jan 24	vsTROY	L 78-83	+4.5	L −0.5	159.5	O 161
Jan 30	vsULM	W 79-76	—	—	—	—
Jan 31	@UL	L 60-69	-2.5	L −11.5	144.5	U 129
Feb 4	vsTXST	L 71-77	-4.5	L −10.5	151.5	U 148
Feb 11	vsAPP	L 65-81	+1.5	L −14.5	143.5	O 146
Feb 14	vsMRSH	W 101-87	+2.5	W +16.5	162.5	O 188
Feb 19	@GAST	L 64-66	-1.5	L −3.5	154.5	U 130
Feb 21	@APP	L 74-89	+7.5	L −7.5	147.5	O 163
Feb 25	@JMU	L 66-82	+5.5	L −10.5	153.5	U 148
Feb 27	@MRSH	W 99-82	+7.5	W +24.5	168.5	O 181
Mar 4	vsODU	W 88-84	-2.5	W +1.5	157.5	O 172
Mar 5	vsARST	W 80-77	+7.5	W +10.5	165.5	U 157
Mar 6	vsUSA	W 94-85	+4.5	W +13.5	149.5	O 179
Mar 7	vsCCU	W 96-72	+1.5	W +25.5	151.5	O 168
Mar 8	vsMRSH	W 82-78	+2.5	W +6.5	166.5	U 160
Mar 9	vsTROY	L 61-77	+5.5	L −10.5	152.5	U 138

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ECU

L 89-92

+2.5

UNCA

W 93-90

−2.5

FGCU

W 95-94

+4.5

L 66-68

+8.5

FSU

L 72-98

−7.5

YSU

L 61-67

−4.5

UTSA

L 64-77

−16.5

HCU

W 80-62

+10.5

W 77-69

+6.5

GWEB

W 88-84

−6.5

WGA

W 91-85

+2.5

GAST

W 90-67

+13.5

JMU

W 96-92

+1.5

CCU

W 82-81

+2.5

ODU

W 93-86

+5.5

USA

L 71-87

−13.5

ODU

W 87-84

−2.5

CCU

L 75-79

−10.5

ARST

L 68-85

−15.5

TROY

L 78-83

−0.5

L 60-69

−11.5

TXST

L 71-77

−10.5

APP

L 65-81

−14.5

MRSH

W 101-87

+16.5

GAST

L 64-66

−3.5

APP

L 74-89

−7.5

JMU

L 66-82

−10.5

MRSH

W 99-82

+24.5

ODU

W 88-84

+1.5

ARST

W 80-77

+10.5

USA

W 94-85

+13.5

CCU

W 96-72

+25.5

MRSH

W 82-78

+6.5

TROY

L 61-77

−10.5

covered 17didn’t cover 17avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ECU

L 89-92

+29.5

UNCA

W 93-90

+20.5

FGCU

W 95-94

+25.5

L 66-68

−30.5

FSU

L 72-98

−5.5

YSU

L 61-67

−35.5

UTSA

L 64-77

−19.5

HCU

W 80-62

−6.5

W 77-69

+0.5

GWEB

W 88-84

+9.5

WGA

W 91-85

+21.5

GAST

W 90-67

−2.5

JMU

W 96-92

+34.5

CCU

W 82-81

+5.5

ODU

W 93-86

+17.5

USA

L 71-87

+9.5

ODU

W 87-84

+8.5

CCU

L 75-79

−3.5

ARST

L 68-85

−19.5

TROY

L 78-83

+1.5

L 60-69

−15.5

TXST

L 71-77

−3.5

APP

L 65-81

+2.5

MRSH

W 101-87

+25.5

GAST

L 64-66

−24.5

APP

L 74-89

+15.5

JMU

L 66-82

−5.5

MRSH

W 99-82

+12.5

ODU

W 88-84

+14.5

ARST

W 80-77

−8.5

USA

W 94-85

+29.5

CCU

W 96-72

+16.5

MRSH

W 82-78

−6.5

TROY

L 61-77

−14.5

over 19under 15avg +2.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

N Kentucky

31 games played

Straight up

17-14

55% wins

Against the spread

13-18

42% covers · avg −0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

21-10

68% overs · avg +5.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

17-1455%

L L W W W W W L W L L W W W W L W L L L L L W W W L W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

13-1842%

L L W W W W W L L L L W L W W L W L L L L L L L W L W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

21-1068%

O U O U O U O O O U O O U O U O O O O O U O U O O U U O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@TENN	L 56-95	+27.5	L −11.5	137.5	O 151
Nov 12	@ETSU	L 63-75	+6.5	L −5.5	142.5	U 138
Nov 20	@CMU	W 90-66	+4.5	W +28.5	146.5	O 156
Nov 24	vsEKU	W 82-71	-4.5	W +6.5	156.5	U 153
Nov 26	vsWOF	W 93-83	-3.5	W +6.5	149.5	O 176
Nov 29	vsBU	W 74-65	-7.5	W +1.5	143.5	U 139
Dec 3	vsCLE	W 95-80	-14.5	W +0.5	158.5	O 175
Dec 6	@PFW	L 77-79	+1.5	L −0.5	153.5	O 156
Dec 13	@BELL	W 80-76	-4.5	L −0.5	146.5	O 156
Dec 17	vsOAK	L 77-82	-3.5	L −8.5	163.5	U 159
Dec 21	vsCOFC	L 74-85	-5.5	L −16.5	153.5	O 159
Dec 29	@RMU	W 79-77	-1.5	W +0.5	149.5	O 156
Jan 1	vsIUIN	W 81-72	-13.5	L −4.5	176.5	U 153
Jan 4	vsYSU	W 94-79	-4.5	W +10.5	146.5	O 173
Jan 9	@MILW	W 85-67	+1.5	W +19.5	157.5	U 152
Jan 11	@GB	L 78-80	-4.5	L −6.5	144.5	O 158
Jan 15	vsDETM	W 96-71	-10.5	W +14.5	159.5	O 167
Jan 17	vsRMU	L 89-92	-7.5	L −10.5	153.5	O 181
Jan 24	@WRST	L 80-88	+1.5	L −6.5	155.5	O 168
Jan 30	@DETM	L 77-90	-5.5	L −18.5	161.5	O 167
Feb 1	@OAK	L 65-76	+3.5	L −7.5	166.5	U 141
Feb 4	vsGB	L 84-87	-7.5	L −10.5	149.5	O 171
Feb 7	vsMILW	W 67-62	-6.5	L −1.5	156.5	U 129
Feb 12	@IUIN	W 84-81	-5.5	L −2.5	164.5	O 165
Feb 18	vsPFW	W 87-71	-5.5	W +10.5	153.5	O 158
Feb 22	@YSU	L 58-64	+2.5	L −3.5	152.5	U 122
Feb 25	@CLE	W 81-70	-8.5	W +2.5	166.5	U 151
Feb 28	vsWRST	L 91-92	-3.5	L −4.5	153.5	O 183
Mar 4	@OAK	W 85-84	+1.5	W +2.5	161.5	O 169
Mar 8	vsGB	W 96-76	-3.5	W +16.5	146.5	O 172
Mar 9	vsWRST	L 90-103	-1.5	L −14.5	157.5	O 193

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TENN

L 56-95

−11.5

ETSU

L 63-75

−5.5

CMU

W 90-66

+28.5

EKU

W 82-71

+6.5

WOF

W 93-83

+6.5

W 74-65

+1.5

CLE

W 95-80

+0.5

PFW

L 77-79

−0.5

BELL

W 80-76

−0.5

OAK

L 77-82

−8.5

COFC

L 74-85

−16.5

RMU

W 79-77

+0.5

IUIN

W 81-72

−4.5

YSU

W 94-79

+10.5

MILW

W 85-67

+19.5

L 78-80

−6.5

DETM

W 96-71

+14.5

RMU

L 89-92

−10.5

WRST

L 80-88

−6.5

DETM

L 77-90

−18.5

OAK

L 65-76

−7.5

L 84-87

−10.5

MILW

W 67-62

−1.5

IUIN

W 84-81

−2.5

PFW

W 87-71

+10.5

YSU

L 58-64

−3.5

CLE

W 81-70

+2.5

WRST

L 91-92

−4.5

OAK

W 85-84

+2.5

W 96-76

+16.5

WRST

L 90-103

−14.5

covered 13didn’t cover 18avg −0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TENN

L 56-95

+13.5

ETSU

L 63-75

−4.5

CMU

W 90-66

+9.5

EKU

W 82-71

−3.5

WOF

W 93-83

+26.5

W 74-65

−4.5

CLE

W 95-80

+16.5

PFW

L 77-79

+2.5

BELL

W 80-76

+9.5

OAK

L 77-82

−4.5

COFC

L 74-85

+5.5

RMU

W 79-77

+6.5

IUIN

W 81-72

−23.5

YSU

W 94-79

+26.5

MILW

W 85-67

−5.5

L 78-80

+13.5

DETM

W 96-71

+7.5

RMU

L 89-92

+27.5

WRST

L 80-88

+12.5

DETM

L 77-90

+5.5

OAK

L 65-76

−25.5

L 84-87

+21.5

MILW

W 67-62

−27.5

IUIN

W 84-81

+0.5

PFW

W 87-71

+4.5

YSU

L 58-64

−30.5

CLE

W 81-70

−15.5

WRST

L 91-92

+29.5

OAK

W 85-84

+7.5

W 96-76

+25.5

WRST

L 90-103

+35.5

over 21under 10avg +5.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

N Kentucky has the better starters

Position by position: GA Southern 1, N Kentucky 3, even 1

GA SouthernBetterN Kentucky

G J. Dixon TR9 pts · 1 reb · 1.5 ast Score 39

GASOBig

G E. Elliott4.8 pts · 2.8 reb · 4.4 ast Score 3

G D. Williams3.6 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.3 ast Score 10

NKUSmall

G E. Acker TR5.7 pts · 1.3 reb · 1.6 ast Score 38

G J. Williams1 pts · 1.1 reb · 0.4 ast Not ranked

No call

F N. Pagotto TR10.5 pts · 5.6 reb · 1 ast Score 68

F T. Claytor TR6.5 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.6 ast Score 8

NKUBig

F W. Shortt TR6.6 pts · 4.4 reb · 0.7 ast Score 51

F T. Sotirov2.5 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.3 ast Score 1

NKUSmall

F D. Rakotonanahary3 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.4 ast Score 25

GA SouthernBetterN Kentucky

GASO offense233rd of 366 · -7.2

Even

NKU defense249th of 366 · -6.5

GASO defense347th of 366 · -9.4

NKUBig

NKU offense209th of 366 · -6.3

Backcourt-3.8 · 3 players

GASOSmall

Backcourt-5.4 · 2 players

Frontcourt-3.7 · 2 players

NKUBig

Frontcourt-0.2 · 3 players

Bench-0.8 · 1 player

GASOSmall

Bench-2.4 · 3 players

Score, worst to bestGASO betterNKU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

GA Southern

Guards

J. Dixon19 min · TRD. Williams12 minJ. Williams8 minD. GardnerNewA. HendersonNewR. WilliamsNew

Forwards

T. Claytor17 min · TRT. Sotirov11 minE. Smith6 min · TRC. CrissmanNewE. SavaneNewE. JamesNew

N Kentucky

Guards

E. Elliott29 minE. Acker19 min · TRB. Davis-Ray7 min · TRB. Darbyshire6 minJ. ApathjangNewW. FosterNew

Forwards

N. Pagotto27 min · TRW. Shortt20 min · TRD. Rakotonanahary12 minR. Tolliver6 minJ. RuizNewP. Otto MaeNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

GASO79.9 #69

NKU80.9 #47

Points per possession

GASO1.12 #109

NKU1.13 #81

Pace (possessions)

GASO71.8 #42

NKU71.5 #55

Shooting

Effective FG%

GASO51.4 #176

NKU53.2 #93

3-point %

GASO33.4 #207

NKU33.6 #193

3-point attempt rate

GASO48.9 #20

NKU44.9 #71

Free throw rate

GASO39.6 #62

NKU35.9 #158

Possessions

Turnover rate

GASO14.7 #49

NKU16.3 #158

Offensive rebound rate

GASO28.8 #238

NKU32.2 #117

Assists per game

GASO10.7 #344

NKU15.5 #65

Defense

Points allowed

GASO80.3 #325

NKU78.7 #284

Points allowed per possession

GASO1.11 #259

NKU1.10 #225

Opponent effective FG%

GASO52.3 #230

NKU54.2 #305

Opponent 3-point %

GASO34.4 #208

NKU36.6 #333

Turnovers forced

GASO18.7 #65

NKU18.6 #66

Defensive rebound rate

GASO64.8 #342

NKU68.4 #236

Steals per game

GASO8.1 #36

NKU8.3 #25

Blocks per game

GASO3.6 #128

NKU3.5 #134

GASO		NKU
Scoring
79.9 #69	Points per game	80.9 #47
1.12 #109	Points per possession	1.13 #81
71.8 #42	Pace (possessions)	71.5 #55
Shooting
51.4 #176	Effective FG%	53.2 #93
33.4 #207	3-point %	33.6 #193
48.9 #20	3-point attempt rate	44.9 #71
39.6 #62	Free throw rate	35.9 #158
Possessions
14.7 #49	Turnover rate	16.3 #158
28.8 #238	Offensive rebound rate	32.2 #117
10.7 #344	Assists per game	15.5 #65
Defense
80.3 #325	Points allowed	78.7 #284
1.11 #259	Points allowed per possession	1.10 #225
52.3 #230	Opponent effective FG%	54.2 #305
34.4 #208	Opponent 3-point %	36.6 #333
18.7 #65	Turnovers forced	18.6 #66
64.8 #342	Defensive rebound rate	68.4 #236
8.1 #36	Steals per game	8.3 #25
3.6 #128	Blocks per game	3.5 #134

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

GA Southern

19-16 in 2025-26 overall · 13-11 in conference · Sun Belt Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Troy61–77
Wvs Marshall82–78
Wvs Coastal96–72
Wvs South Alabama94–85
Wvs Arkansas St80–77

A week or more of rest.

N Kentucky

17-14 in 2025-26 overall · 12-11 in conference · Horizon League

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Wright St90–103
Wvs Green Bay96–76
W@ Oakland85–84
Lvs Wright St91–92
W@ Cleveland St81–70

A week or more of rest.

Georgia Southern Eagles at Northern Kentucky Norse

What could decide it: NKU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

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ATS History · 2025-26

GA Southern

N Kentucky

N Kentucky has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

GA Southern

N Kentucky