North Carolina A&T Aggies at South Carolina State Bulldogs: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 23, 7:00 PM ETSmith-Hammond-Middleton Memorial Center · at SC State

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: NC A&T and SC State
NCAT	This season	SCST
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects NCAT 78–72 · win probability NCAT 69%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 149.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: NCAT has more of the edges

NCAT 4, SCST 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

SCSTBig

Three-pointers

NCAT hits 31.6% and allows 36.6%; SCST hits 34.0% and allows 33.5%. Threes are 32.6% and 33.3% of their shots

NCATBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: NCAT 31.7%, SCST 31.4%. Defensive: NCAT 71.4%, SCST 62.4%

NCATBig

NCAT offense vs SCST defense

Offense 234th of 366 against a defense 351st, on the model’s ratings

SCSTBig

Turnovers

Turnover rate: NCAT 18.6%, SCST 20.8%. Forced: NCAT 14.1%, SCST 18.8%

NCATSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: NCAT 50.7 and allows 52.9; SCST 46.8 and allows 53.9

Context

Schedule so far

NCAT has played the 238th-hardest schedule, SCST the 317th. A record against a soft schedule means less

NCATSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: NCAT 42.3, SCST 41.0. Allowed: NCAT 37.5, SCST 51.9

SCSTSmall

Home court

SCST at home. This season: SCST 0-0 at home, NCAT 0-0 away

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: NCAT 16%, SCST 34%. Transfers in: NCAT 2, SCST 1. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

SCST offense vs NCAT defense

Offense 341st of 366 against a defense 311th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 70 possessions: NCAT plays 69.4 a game (150th fastest), SCST 70.3 (102nd). Faster games mean more points

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	NCAT -5.8	—
Total	—	149.2	—
Projected score	—	NCAT 77.5 · SCST 71.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	NCAT -3.5	—
1H total	69.8	—
1H projected score	NCAT 36.7 · SCST 33.1	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NCAT WLWLL	16-12	57%	9-6	—
SCST LWWWL	13-17	43%	5-4	—

Venue/role: NCAT away; SCST home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
NCAT OOOOO	16-12	57%	9-19
SCST UUOOU	15-15	50%	8-22

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NCAT	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
SCST	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

NC A&T

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 28	vs DSU	No recent meeting
Dec 5	@ UMES	W82–79LO
Dec 9	vs JMU	No recent meeting

SC State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 28	@ DUQ	L71–96LO
Dec 2	vs WIN	L79–101LO
Dec 5	vs CHSO	L44–84LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

NCAT 1–0 SCSTNCAT leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · NCAT 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 10, 2025-26	SCST 62 @ NCAT 85	NCAT -2.5	NCAT W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

NC A&T

28 games played

Straight up

9-19

32% wins

Against the spread

16-12

57% covers · avg +1.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-12

57% overs · avg +3.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

9-1932%

L W W L L W L W W L L L L L L W W L L L L W L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

16-1257%

W W W L L W L L W W L W W W L W W W W L L W L W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

16-1257%

O U U O U U U O U O O O U O U O O O U U U O U O O O O O

5 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@SC	L 72-91	+22.5	W +3.5	143.5	O 163
Nov 10	vsSCST	W 85-62	-2.5	W +20.5	159.5	U 147
Nov 18	@MORG	W 79-73	-2.5	W +3.5	161.5	U 152
Nov 28	@DAV	L 74-90	+13.5	L −2.5	145.5	O 164
Dec 2	@CLT	L 57-74	+7.5	L −9.5	144.5	U 131
Dec 6	@NCCU	W 69-54	-2.5	W +12.5	142.5	U 123
Dec 9	vsHOW	L 69-73	-2.5	L −6.5	149.5	U 142
Dec 12	vsUMES	W 82-79	-7.5	L −4.5	130.5	O 161
Dec 16	@UNCG	W 71-65	+6.5	W +12.5	147.5	U 136
Dec 29	vsUNCW	L 78-87	+10.5	W +1.5	146.5	O 165
Dec 31	vsNE	L 74-85	+3.5	L −7.5	151.5	O 159
Jan 3	@STBK	L 80-81	+4.5	W +3.5	141.5	O 161
Jan 8	vsELON	L 64-69	+6.5	W +1.5	158.5	U 133
Jan 15	@W&M	L 89-97	+13.5	W +5.5	162.5	O 186
Jan 19	@HAMP	L 61-82	+6.5	L −14.5	143.5	U 143
Jan 22	vsHOF	W 79-78	+9.5	W +10.5	146.5	O 157
Jan 24	vsTOW	W 80-73	+7.5	W +14.5	139.5	O 153
Jan 29	@MONM	L 81-83	+9.5	W +7.5	144.5	O 164
Jan 31	@DREX	L 60-61	+7.5	W +6.5	138.5	U 121
Feb 5	@COFC	L 62-78	+11.5	L −4.5	155.5	U 140
Feb 7	vsCAM	L 71-79	+3.5	L −4.5	156.5	U 150
Feb 13	vsHAMP	W 71-70	+3.5	W +4.5	137.5	O 141
Feb 19	vsCOFC	L 61-74	+4.5	L −8.5	147.5	U 135
Feb 21	@ELON	W 102-82	+7.5	W +27.5	151.5	O 184
Feb 26	@UNCW	L 65-88	+13.5	L −9.5	146.5	O 153
Feb 28	vsW&M	L 88-91	+8.5	W +5.5	163.5	O 179
Mar 3	@CAM	L 72-90	+8.5	L −9.5	154.5	O 162
Mar 6	vsNE	L 72-88	+2.5	L −13.5	151.5	O 160

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

L 72-91

+3.5

SCST

W 85-62

+20.5

MORG

W 79-73

+3.5

DAV

L 74-90

−2.5

CLT

L 57-74

−9.5

NCCU

W 69-54

+12.5

HOW

L 69-73

−6.5

UMES

W 82-79

−4.5

UNCG

W 71-65

+12.5

UNCW

L 78-87

+1.5

L 74-85

−7.5

STBK

L 80-81

+3.5

ELON

L 64-69

+1.5

W&M

L 89-97

+5.5

HAMP

L 61-82

−14.5

HOF

W 79-78

+10.5

TOW

W 80-73

+14.5

MONM

L 81-83

+7.5

DREX

L 60-61

+6.5

COFC

L 62-78

−4.5

CAM

L 71-79

−4.5

HAMP

W 71-70

+4.5

COFC

L 61-74

−8.5

ELON

W 102-82

+27.5

UNCW

L 65-88

−9.5

W&M

L 88-91

+5.5

CAM

L 72-90

−9.5

L 72-88

−13.5

covered 16didn’t cover 12avg +1.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

L 72-91

+19.5

SCST

W 85-62

−12.5

MORG

W 79-73

−9.5

DAV

L 74-90

+18.5

CLT

L 57-74

−13.5

NCCU

W 69-54

−19.5

HOW

L 69-73

−7.5

UMES

W 82-79

+30.5

UNCG

W 71-65

−11.5

UNCW

L 78-87

+18.5

L 74-85

+7.5

STBK

L 80-81

+19.5

ELON

L 64-69

−25.5

W&M

L 89-97

+23.5

HAMP

L 61-82

−0.5

HOF

W 79-78

+10.5

TOW

W 80-73

+13.5

MONM

L 81-83

+19.5

DREX

L 60-61

−17.5

COFC

L 62-78

−15.5

CAM

L 71-79

−6.5

HAMP

W 71-70

+3.5

COFC

L 61-74

−12.5

ELON

W 102-82

+32.5

UNCW

L 65-88

+6.5

W&M

L 88-91

+15.5

CAM

L 72-90

+7.5

L 72-88

+8.5

over 16under 12avg +3.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

SC State

30 games played

Straight up

8-22

27% wins

Against the spread

13-17

43% covers · avg −0.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-15

50% overs · avg +0.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-2227%

L L L L L L L L L L L L L L W L W L W W L L W L L L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

13-1743%

L W L L L W W L L L L W W L W L W L W W L L W L L L W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

15-1550%

U U U U U O O O U U O O O O U U O O U U O U O O O U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@LOU	L 45-104	+35.5	L −23.5	159.5	U 149
Nov 7	@SAM	L 72-82	+14.5	W +4.5	154.5	U 154
Nov 10	@NCAT	L 62-85	+2.5	L −20.5	159.5	U 147
Nov 14	@COFC	L 61-88	+18.5	L −8.5	156.5	U 149
Nov 19	vsUTC	L 66-78	+11.5	L −0.5	154.5	U 144
Nov 23	@SDAK	L 81-82	+15.5	W +14.5	160.5	O 163
Nov 25	@MIZ	L 66-98	+34.5	W +2.5	160.5	O 164
Nov 29	@WIN	L 79-101	+20.5	L −1.5	157.5	O 180
Dec 5	@BCU	L 59-80	+13.5	L −7.5	148.5	U 139
Dec 8	@CHSO	L 44-84	+12.5	L −27.5	156.5	U 128
Dec 12	@QUC	L 78-102	+18.5	L −5.5	157.5	O 180
Dec 16	vsUPST	L 72-78	+10.5	W +4.5	147.5	O 150
Dec 22	@SC	L 70-95	+31.5	W +6.5	149.5	O 165
Dec 30	@TENN	L 54-105	+44.5	L −6.5	147.5	O 159
Jan 3	vsHOW	W 58-57	+8.5	W +9.5	144.5	U 115
Jan 10	@MORG	L 67-72	+4.5	L −0.5	147.5	U 139
Jan 12	@COPP	W 74-72	+1.5	W +3.5	140.5	O 146
Jan 17	vsNORF	L 82-89	+5.5	L −1.5	139.5	O 171
Jan 26	vsDSU	W 70-64	-1.5	W +4.5	135.5	U 134
Feb 4	vsUMES	W 63-54	+3.5	W +12.5	133.5	U 117
Feb 7	@HOW	L 57-85	+14.5	L −13.5	141.5	O 142
Feb 16	vsCOPP	L 57-59	-4.5	L −6.5	138.5	U 116
Feb 18	vsNCCU	W 85-72	+2.5	W +15.5	136.5	O 157
Feb 21	@NORF	L 71-90	+10.5	L −8.5	140.5	O 161
Feb 25	vsMORG	L 83-90	+1.5	L −5.5	153.5	O 173
Feb 28	@UMES	L 57-69	+5.5	L −6.5	132.5	U 126
Mar 2	@DSU	W 61-59	+3.5	W +5.5	134.5	U 120
Mar 5	@NCCU	W 80-64	+7.5	W +23.5	140.5	O 144
Mar 12	vsNORF	W 88-82	+7.5	W +13.5	144.5	O 170
Mar 13	vsHOW	L 61-78	+15.5	L −1.5	145.5	U 139

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LOU

L 45-104

−23.5

SAM

L 72-82

+4.5

NCAT

L 62-85

−20.5

COFC

L 61-88

−8.5

UTC

L 66-78

−0.5

SDAK

L 81-82

+14.5

MIZ

L 66-98

+2.5

WIN

L 79-101

−1.5

BCU

L 59-80

−7.5

CHSO

L 44-84

−27.5

QUC

L 78-102

−5.5

UPST

L 72-78

+4.5

L 70-95

+6.5

TENN

L 54-105

−6.5

HOW

W 58-57

+9.5

MORG

L 67-72

−0.5

COPP

W 74-72

+3.5

NORF

L 82-89

−1.5

DSU

W 70-64

+4.5

UMES

W 63-54

+12.5

HOW

L 57-85

−13.5

COPP

L 57-59

−6.5

NCCU

W 85-72

+15.5

NORF

L 71-90

−8.5

MORG

L 83-90

−5.5

UMES

L 57-69

−6.5

DSU

W 61-59

+5.5

NCCU

W 80-64

+23.5

NORF

W 88-82

+13.5

HOW

L 61-78

−1.5

covered 13didn’t cover 17avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LOU

L 45-104

−10.5

SAM

L 72-82

−0.5

NCAT

L 62-85

−12.5

COFC

L 61-88

−7.5

UTC

L 66-78

−10.5

SDAK

L 81-82

+2.5

MIZ

L 66-98

+3.5

WIN

L 79-101

+22.5

BCU

L 59-80

−9.5

CHSO

L 44-84

−28.5

QUC

L 78-102

+22.5

UPST

L 72-78

+2.5

L 70-95

+15.5

TENN

L 54-105

+11.5

HOW

W 58-57

−29.5

MORG

L 67-72

−8.5

COPP

W 74-72

+5.5

NORF

L 82-89

+31.5

DSU

W 70-64

−1.5

UMES

W 63-54

−16.5

HOW

L 57-85

+0.5

COPP

L 57-59

−22.5

NCCU

W 85-72

+20.5

NORF

L 71-90

+20.5

MORG

L 83-90

+19.5

UMES

L 57-69

−6.5

DSU

W 61-59

−14.5

NCCU

W 80-64

+3.5

NORF

W 88-82

+25.5

HOW

L 61-78

−6.5

over 15under 15avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

NC A&T has the better starters

Position by position: NC A&T 3, SC State 0, even 2

NC A&TBetterSC State

G P. James TR13.7 pts · 2.8 reb · 3.1 ast Score 66

NCATBig

G D. Jackson TR6.1 pts · 2.9 reb · 2.8 ast Score 24

G S. Lancaster TR10.8 pts · 2.3 reb · 2.2 ast Score 50

NCATSmall

G N. Treadwell9.4 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.6 ast Score 25

G M. Burton5.2 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.5 ast Score 13

Even

F D. Hodge2.5 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.2 ast Score 1

F M. Webster NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked

No call

F C. Parker6.6 pts · 4.4 reb · 0.6 ast Score 53

C W. Felton6.7 pts · 4.2 reb · 0.3 ast Score 65

NCATBig

F T. Tindal2.7 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.2 ast Score 12

NC A&TBetterSC State

NCAT offense234th of 366 · -7.2

NCATSmall

SCST defense351st of 366 · -9.8

NCAT defense311th of 366 · -8.1

Even

SCST offense341st of 366 · -11.6

Backcourt-2.1 · 3 players

NCATSmall

Backcourt-3.7 · 2 players

Frontcourt+0.8 · 2 players

NCATBig

Frontcourt-4.2 · 3 players

BenchNo numbers yet

No call

BenchNo numbers yet

Score, worst to bestNCAT betterSCST betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

NC A&T

Guards

P. James33 min · TRS. Lancaster29 min · TRM. Burton17 minJ. McKieNewU. Kellman-NicholesNewB. IveryNew

Forwards

M. WebsterNewS. SimleyNew

Centers

W. Felton16 minE. KalliontzisNew

SC State

Guards

D. Jackson23 min · TRN. Treadwell23 minB. JacksonNewM. TaylorNewB. HarrisNewC. BarnesNew

Forwards

D. Hodge18 minC. Parker18 minT. Tindal10 minJ. PrettyNewB. AdamsNewA. NGomabieNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

NCAT73.9 #205

SCST67.4 #325

Points per possession

NCAT1.07 #213

SCST0.96 #353

Pace (possessions)

NCAT69.4 #150

SCST70.3 #102

Shooting

Effective FG%

NCAT50.7 #201

SCST46.8 #341

3-point %

NCAT31.6 #304

SCST34.0 #173

3-point attempt rate

NCAT32.6 #322

SCST33.3 #312

Free throw rate

NCAT42.3 #26

SCST41.0 #47

Possessions

Turnover rate

NCAT18.6 #304

SCST20.8 #355

Offensive rebound rate

NCAT31.7 #136

SCST31.4 #146

Assists per game

NCAT11.5 #311

SCST12.1 #281

Defense

Points allowed

NCAT78.5 #278

SCST80.6 #327

Points allowed per possession

NCAT1.13 #285

SCST1.15 #318

Opponent effective FG%

NCAT52.9 #266

SCST53.9 #296

Opponent 3-point %

NCAT36.6 #331

SCST33.5 #155

Turnovers forced

NCAT14.1 #332

SCST18.8 #59

Defensive rebound rate

NCAT71.4 #89

SCST62.4 #362

Steals per game

NCAT5.1 #323

SCST6.9 #137

Blocks per game

NCAT3.8 #107

SCST3.8 #98

NCAT		SCST
Scoring
73.9 #205	Points per game	67.4 #325
1.07 #213	Points per possession	0.96 #353
69.4 #150	Pace (possessions)	70.3 #102
Shooting
50.7 #201	Effective FG%	46.8 #341
31.6 #304	3-point %	34.0 #173
32.6 #322	3-point attempt rate	33.3 #312
42.3 #26	Free throw rate	41.0 #47
Possessions
18.6 #304	Turnover rate	20.8 #355
31.7 #136	Offensive rebound rate	31.4 #146
11.5 #311	Assists per game	12.1 #281
Defense
78.5 #278	Points allowed	80.6 #327
1.13 #285	Points allowed per possession	1.15 #318
52.9 #266	Opponent effective FG%	53.9 #296
36.6 #331	Opponent 3-point %	33.5 #155
14.1 #332	Turnovers forced	18.8 #59
71.4 #89	Defensive rebound rate	62.4 #362
5.1 #323	Steals per game	6.9 #137
3.8 #107	Blocks per game	3.8 #98

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

NC A&T

9-19 in 2025-26 overall · 4-15 in conference · Coastal Athletic Association

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Northeastern72–88
L@ Campbell72–90
Lvs William & Mary88–91
L@ UNC Wilmington65–88
W@ Elon102–82

A week or more of rest.

SC State

8-22 in 2025-26 overall · 8-8 in conference · Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Howard61–78
Wvs Norfolk St88–82
W@ NC Central80–64
W@ Delaware St61–59
L@ MD Eastern57–69

A week or more of rest.

North Carolina A&T Aggies at South Carolina State Bulldogs

What could decide it: NCAT has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

NC A&T

SC State

NC A&T has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

NC A&T

SC State