Delaware State Hornets at East Carolina Pirates: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 14, 4:00 PM ETWilliams Arena at Minges Coliseum · at East Carolina

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Delaware St and East Carolina
DSU	This season	ECU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects ECU 80–62 · win probability ECU 95%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 142.0

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: ECU has more of the edges

DSU 2, ECU 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

Context

Schedule so far

DSU has played the 354th-hardest schedule, ECU the 123rd. A record against a soft schedule means less

ECUBig

DSU offense vs ECU defense

Offense 354th of 366 against a defense 158th, on the model’s ratings

ECUBig

ECU offense vs DSU defense

Offense 142nd of 366 against a defense 307th, on the model’s ratings

ECUBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: DSU 34.1, ECU 39.2. Allowed: DSU 40.5, ECU 32.2

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: DSU plays 66.7 a game (290th fastest), ECU 70.0 (116th). Faster games mean more points

ECUSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: DSU 27.7%, ECU 33.4%. Defensive: DSU 68.0%, ECU 67.5%

DSUSmall

Three-pointers

DSU hits 28.4% and allows 33.0%; ECU hits 29.3% and allows 34.9%. Threes are 28.9% and 31.1% of their shots

ECUSmall

Home court

ECU at home. This season: ECU 0-0 at home, DSU 0-0 away

DSUSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: DSU 41%, ECU 16%. Transfers in: DSU 1, ECU 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: DSU 42.9 and allows 52.9; ECU 46.4 and allows 52.3

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: DSU 19.8%, ECU 17.1%. Forced: DSU 19.6%, ECU 16.3%

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	ECU -18.7	—
Total	—	142.0	—
Projected score	—	DSU 61.6 · ECU 80.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	ECU -11.0	—
1H total	66.4	—
1H projected score	DSU 27.7 · ECU 38.7	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DSU LLWWL	9-18	33%	4-12	—
ECU LLWLW	12-18	40%	6-10	—

Venue/role: DSU away; ECU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
DSU UUUOU	8-19	30%	5-22
ECU UOUOO	16-14	53%	10-20

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DSU	2-8 20%	2-8 20%	4-6 40%
ECU	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Delaware St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 20	vs NIA	L57–68LU
Nov 24	@ UTC	No recent meeting
Nov 28	@ NCAT	No recent meeting

East Carolina

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 1	vs RICH	L72–87LO
Dec 5	vs RAD	No recent meeting
Dec 9	vs CCU	W63–59LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

DSU 0–1 ECUECU leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · DSU 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 20, 2023-24	DSU 50 @ ECU 79	ECU -12.5	ECU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Delaware St

27 games played

Straight up

5-22

19% wins

Against the spread

9-18

33% covers · avg −3.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

8-19

30% overs · avg −5.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-2219%

L L L L L L L W W L L L L L L L W L L L L L L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

9-1833%

L L L L L L W W W W W L W L L L W L L L L L L L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

8-1930%

U U U U U U U O O U U U U O O U U U O U O O U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	@TEM	L 65-83	+16.5	L −1.5	154.5	U 148
Nov 8	@SYR	L 43-83	+26.5	L −13.5	157.5	U 126
Nov 10	@NIA	L 57-68	+5.5	L −5.5	137.5	U 125
Nov 15	@NHVN	L 52-65	+1.5	L −11.5	130.5	U 117
Nov 23	@MIA	L 41-97	+34.5	L −21.5	151.5	U 138
Nov 29	@UMBC	L 57-71	+13.5	L −0.5	138.5	U 128
Dec 3	vsNAVY	L 59-66	+15.5	W +8.5	132.5	U 125
Dec 6	vsDEL	W 75-72	+7.5	W +10.5	129.5	O 147
Dec 13	@LONG	W 81-76	+13.5	W +18.5	139.5	O 157
Dec 18	@JOES	L 51-67	+17.5	W +1.5	137.5	U 118
Dec 29	@RUTG	L 50-65	+20.5	W +5.5	135.5	U 115
Jan 3	vsCOPP	L 51-53	-8.5	L −10.5	139.5	U 104
Jan 10	vsNORF	L 64-66	+4.5	W +2.5	132.5	U 130
Jan 12	@HOW	L 58-84	+8.5	L −17.5	129.5	O 142
Jan 17	vsMORG	L 79-80	-3.5	L −4.5	136.5	O 159
Jan 26	@SCST	L 64-70	+1.5	L −4.5	135.5	U 134
Jan 31	vsUMES	W 65-57	+2.5	W +10.5	128.5	U 122
Feb 7	@COPP	L 47-65	-1.5	L −19.5	132.5	U 112
Feb 9	@NCCU	L 63-72	+7.5	L −1.5	134.5	O 135
Feb 14	@NORF	L 58-75	+9.5	L −7.5	134.5	U 133
Feb 16	vsHOW	L 59-91	+11.5	L −20.5	131.5	O 150
Feb 21	@MORG	L 68-82	+5.5	L −8.5	143.5	O 150
Feb 28	vsNCCU	L 60-74	+2.5	L −11.5	135.5	U 134
Mar 2	vsSCST	L 59-61	-3.5	L −5.5	134.5	U 120
Mar 5	@UMES	W 57-56	+5.5	W +6.5	124.5	U 113
Mar 11	vsMORG	W 75-70	+3.5	W +8.5	142.5	O 145
Mar 13	vsNCCU	L 53-59	+3.5	L −2.5	131.5	U 112

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TEM

L 65-83

−1.5

SYR

L 43-83

−13.5

NIA

L 57-68

−5.5

NHVN

L 52-65

−11.5

MIA

L 41-97

−21.5

UMBC

L 57-71

−0.5

NAVY

L 59-66

+8.5

DEL

W 75-72

+10.5

LONG

W 81-76

+18.5

JOES

L 51-67

+1.5

RUTG

L 50-65

+5.5

COPP

L 51-53

−10.5

NORF

L 64-66

+2.5

HOW

L 58-84

−17.5

MORG

L 79-80

−4.5

SCST

L 64-70

−4.5

UMES

W 65-57

+10.5

COPP

L 47-65

−19.5

NCCU

L 63-72

−1.5

NORF

L 58-75

−7.5

HOW

L 59-91

−20.5

MORG

L 68-82

−8.5

NCCU

L 60-74

−11.5

SCST

L 59-61

−5.5

UMES

W 57-56

+6.5

MORG

W 75-70

+8.5

NCCU

L 53-59

−2.5

covered 9didn’t cover 18avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TEM

L 65-83

−6.5

SYR

L 43-83

−31.5

NIA

L 57-68

−12.5

NHVN

L 52-65

−13.5

MIA

L 41-97

−13.5

UMBC

L 57-71

−10.5

NAVY

L 59-66

−7.5

DEL

W 75-72

+17.5

LONG

W 81-76

+17.5

JOES

L 51-67

−19.5

RUTG

L 50-65

−20.5

COPP

L 51-53

−35.5

NORF

L 64-66

−2.5

HOW

L 58-84

+12.5

MORG

L 79-80

+22.5

SCST

L 64-70

−1.5

UMES

W 65-57

−6.5

COPP

L 47-65

−20.5

NCCU

L 63-72

+0.5

NORF

L 58-75

−1.5

HOW

L 59-91

+18.5

MORG

L 68-82

+6.5

NCCU

L 60-74

−1.5

SCST

L 59-61

−14.5

UMES

W 57-56

−11.5

MORG

W 75-70

+2.5

NCCU

L 53-59

−19.5

over 8under 19avg −5.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

East Carolina

30 games played

Straight up

10-20

33% wins

Against the spread

12-18

40% covers · avg −2.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-14

53% overs · avg +3.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

10-2033%

W L L L L L W L L W W L L L L L L L W L W L W W L L W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

12-1840%

L L L L L W L L L W W L L L W W L L W L W L W W W L L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

16-1453%

O O U U O U U O U U U O O U O U O U U O U O O O O U O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsGASO	W 92-89	-5.5	L −2.5	151.5	O 181
Nov 8	@RICH	L 72-87	+5.5	L −9.5	143.5	O 159
Nov 18	@UNCW	L 60-85	+6.5	L −18.5	145.5	U 145
Nov 21	vsCHSO	L 65-77	-13.5	L −25.5	157.5	U 142
Nov 25	vsMSU	L 56-89	+19.5	L −13.5	140.5	O 145
Nov 27	vsSBU	L 58-67	+10.5	W +1.5	144.5	U 125
Dec 2	vsUMES	W 68-56	-12.5	L −0.5	127.5	U 124
Dec 6	vsUNCG	L 78-82	-7.5	L −11.5	139.5	O 160
Dec 11	vsAPP	L 54-67	-4.5	L −17.5	130.5	U 121
Dec 14	vsBUF	W 73-70	-1.5	W +1.5	146.5	U 143
Dec 17	vsPRES	W 74-53	-4.5	W +16.5	131.5	U 127
Dec 22	@UNC	L 51-99	+25.5	L −22.5	144.5	O 150
Dec 31	vsTULN	L 70-79	+1.5	L −7.5	145.5	O 149
Jan 7	@TEM	L 67-75	+7.5	L −0.5	143.5	U 142
Jan 11	vsUAB	L 85-87	+7.5	W +5.5	150.5	O 172
Jan 14	@USF	L 71-82	+18.5	W +7.5	158.5	U 153
Jan 18	vsCLT	L 70-73	-1.5	L −4.5	139.5	O 143
Jan 21	@WICH	L 60-77	+12.5	L −4.5	144.5	U 137
Jan 23	@UNT	W 63-59	+10.5	W +14.5	134.5	U 122
Jan 28	vsRICE	L 77-83	-2.5	L −8.5	140.5	O 160
Feb 1	@FAU	W 76-75	+10.5	W +11.5	153.5	U 151
Feb 7	vsTEM	L 73-81	+2.5	L −5.5	140.5	O 154
Feb 11	vsUTSA	W 88-72	-10.5	W +5.5	150.5	O 160
Feb 14	@RICE	W 85-75	+4.5	W +14.5	146.5	O 160
Feb 18	vsWICH	L 89-92	+7.5	W +4.5	149.5	O 181
Feb 21	@CLT	L 56-68	+4.5	L −7.5	145.5	U 124
Feb 25	@UTSA	W 82-81	-4.5	L −3.5	153.5	O 163
Mar 1	vsMEM	W 84-68	+4.5	W +20.5	152.5	U 152
Mar 5	vsTLSA	L 66-93	+8.5	L −18.5	156.5	O 159
Mar 8	@UAB	L 83-90	+10.5	W +3.5	151.5	O 173

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

GASO

W 92-89

−2.5

RICH

L 72-87

−9.5

UNCW

L 60-85

−18.5

CHSO

L 65-77

−25.5

MSU

L 56-89

−13.5

SBU

L 58-67

+1.5

UMES

W 68-56

−0.5

UNCG

L 78-82

−11.5

APP

L 54-67

−17.5

BUF

W 73-70

+1.5

PRES

W 74-53

+16.5

UNC

L 51-99

−22.5

TULN

L 70-79

−7.5

TEM

L 67-75

−0.5

UAB

L 85-87

+5.5

USF

L 71-82

+7.5

CLT

L 70-73

−4.5

WICH

L 60-77

−4.5

UNT

W 63-59

+14.5

RICE

L 77-83

−8.5

FAU

W 76-75

+11.5

TEM

L 73-81

−5.5

UTSA

W 88-72

+5.5

RICE

W 85-75

+14.5

WICH

L 89-92

+4.5

CLT

L 56-68

−7.5

UTSA

W 82-81

−3.5

MEM

W 84-68

+20.5

TLSA

L 66-93

−18.5

UAB

L 83-90

+3.5

covered 12didn’t cover 18avg −2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

GASO

W 92-89

+29.5

RICH

L 72-87

+15.5

UNCW

L 60-85

−0.5

CHSO

L 65-77

−15.5

MSU

L 56-89

+4.5

SBU

L 58-67

−19.5

UMES

W 68-56

−3.5

UNCG

L 78-82

+20.5

APP

L 54-67

−9.5

BUF

W 73-70

−3.5

PRES

W 74-53

−4.5

UNC

L 51-99

+5.5

TULN

L 70-79

+3.5

TEM

L 67-75

−1.5

UAB

L 85-87

+21.5

USF

L 71-82

−5.5

CLT

L 70-73

+3.5

WICH

L 60-77

−7.5

UNT

W 63-59

−12.5

RICE

L 77-83

+19.5

FAU

W 76-75

−2.5

TEM

L 73-81

+13.5

UTSA

W 88-72

+9.5

RICE

W 85-75

+13.5

WICH

L 89-92

+31.5

CLT

L 56-68

−21.5

UTSA

W 82-81

+9.5

MEM

W 84-68

−0.5

TLSA

L 66-93

+2.5

UAB

L 83-90

+21.5

over 16under 14avg +3.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

East Carolina has the better starters

Position by position: Delaware St 0, East Carolina 3, even 2

Delaware StBetterEast Carolina

G R. Moore6.5 pts · 2.8 reb · 1 ast Score 33

Even

G C. Medley TR10.9 pts · 2.4 reb · 6.2 ast Score 32

G N. Muhammad TR7.3 pts · 1.7 reb · 1.8 ast Score 35

ECUBig

G B. Blaine TR17.7 pts · 7.1 reb · 2.8 ast Score 82

G J. St Clair3.7 pts · 0.9 reb · 1 ast Score 14

ECUBig

F K. Watson TR12.5 pts · 4.8 reb · 1.3 ast Score 50

G D. Shepherd4.7 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.5 ast Score 58

ECUSmall

F K. Cooper TR8.5 pts · 7.5 reb · 1.1 ast Score 76

F A. Santos6.4 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.4 ast Score 20

No call

F J. Woodard3.3 pts · 1.7 reb · 1.7 ast Not ranked

Delaware StBetterEast Carolina

DSU offense354th of 366 · -13.2

ECUBig

ECU defense158th of 366 · -3.4

DSU defense307th of 366 · -7.9

ECUBig

ECU offense142nd of 366 · -4.3

Backcourt-4.0 · 4 players

ECUBig

Backcourt-0.7 · 2 players

Frontcourt-1.5 · 1 player

ECUSmall

Frontcourt+0.4 · 3 players

Bench-2.0 · 1 player

Even

Bench-1.8 · 2 players

Score, worst to bestDSU betterECU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Delaware St

Guards

R. Moore22 minN. Muhammad18 min · TRJ. St Clair15 minD. Shepherd13 minN. ReedusNewI. SullivanNew

Forwards

A. Santos20 minM. Adamu13 minT. HawkinsNewG. EkukwaiNewJ. ObioraNewF. MuntariNew

East Carolina

Guards

C. Medley34 min · TRB. Blaine29 min · TRT. Best6 min · TRA. McCulloughNewM. PandovNew

Forwards

K. Watson32 min · TRK. Cooper26 min · TRJ. Woodard17 minJ. BuchananNewD. QuinnNewD. Creasy-QuirindoongoNew

Centers

E. DeLaurier15 minM. KlitschkoNewM. HintonNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

DSU59.7 #365

ECU71.5 #259

Points per possession

DSU0.89 #365

ECU1.02 #305

Pace (possessions)

DSU66.7 #290

ECU70.0 #116

Shooting

Effective FG%

DSU42.9 #364

ECU46.4 #346

3-point %

DSU28.4 #361

ECU29.3 #350

3-point attempt rate

DSU28.9 #357

ECU31.1 #337

Free throw rate

DSU34.1 #204

ECU39.2 #75

Possessions

Turnover rate

DSU19.8 #346

ECU17.1 #208

Offensive rebound rate

DSU27.7 #277

ECU33.4 #79

Assists per game

DSU9.7 #361

ECU11.8 #301

Defense

Points allowed

DSU71.4 #89

ECU77.7 #262

Points allowed per possession

DSU1.07 #143

ECU1.11 #246

Opponent effective FG%

DSU52.9 #265

ECU52.3 #229

Opponent 3-point %

DSU33.0 #123

ECU34.9 #245

Turnovers forced

DSU19.6 #32

ECU16.3 #205

Defensive rebound rate

DSU68.0 #257

ECU67.5 #282

Steals per game

DSU7.6 #73

ECU6.5 #177

Blocks per game

DSU1.8 #353

ECU4.0 #74

DSU		ECU
Scoring
59.7 #365	Points per game	71.5 #259
0.89 #365	Points per possession	1.02 #305
66.7 #290	Pace (possessions)	70.0 #116
Shooting
42.9 #364	Effective FG%	46.4 #346
28.4 #361	3-point %	29.3 #350
28.9 #357	3-point attempt rate	31.1 #337
34.1 #204	Free throw rate	39.2 #75
Possessions
19.8 #346	Turnover rate	17.1 #208
27.7 #277	Offensive rebound rate	33.4 #79
9.7 #361	Assists per game	11.8 #301
Defense
71.4 #89	Points allowed	77.7 #262
1.07 #143	Points allowed per possession	1.11 #246
52.9 #265	Opponent effective FG%	52.3 #229
33.0 #123	Opponent 3-point %	34.9 #245
19.6 #32	Turnovers forced	16.3 #205
68.0 #257	Defensive rebound rate	67.5 #282
7.6 #73	Steals per game	6.5 #177
1.8 #353	Blocks per game	4.0 #74

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Delaware St

5-22 in 2025-26 overall · 3-13 in conference · Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs NC Central53–59
Wvs Morgan St75–70
W@ MD Eastern57–56
Lvs SC State59–61
Lvs NC Central60–74

A week or more of rest.

East Carolina

10-20 in 2025-26 overall · 6-12 in conference · American Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ UAB83–90
Lvs Tulsa66–93
Wvs Memphis84–68
W@ UTSA82–81
L@ Charlotte56–68

A week or more of rest.

Delaware State Hornets at East Carolina Pirates

What could decide it: ECU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Delaware St

East Carolina

East Carolina has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Delaware St

East Carolina