Lafayette Leopards at St. Bonaventure Bonnies: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 14, 4:00 PM ETReilly Center · at St Bonaventure

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Lafayette and St Bonaventure
LAF	This season	SBU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SBU 80–65 · win probability SBU 90%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 144.5

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SBU has more of the edges

LAF 1, SBU 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

SBUBig

LAF offense vs SBU defense

Offense 331st of 366 against a defense 131st, on the model’s ratings

SBUBig

Three-pointers

LAF hits 32.1% and allows 36.0%; SBU hits 37.4% and allows 36.0%. Threes are 39.8% and 31.3% of their shots

Context

Schedule so far

LAF has played the 230th-hardest schedule, SBU the 109th. A record against a soft schedule means less

SBUSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: LAF 25.8%, SBU 34.5%. Defensive: LAF 71.4%, SBU 70.2%

SBUSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: LAF 49.3 and allows 53.6; SBU 52.4 and allows 53.3

SBUSmall

SBU offense vs LAF defense

Offense 169th of 366 against a defense 245th, on the model’s ratings

LAFSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: LAF 32.5, SBU 30.0. Allowed: LAF 30.6, SBU 33.9

SBUSmall

Home court

SBU at home. This season: SBU 0-0 at home, LAF 0-0 away

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: LAF 34%, SBU 18%. Transfers in: LAF 1, SBU 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: LAF plays 67.2 a game (274th fastest), SBU 68.0 (228th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: LAF 15.3%, SBU 16.8%. Forced: LAF 15.1%, SBU 17.1%

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	SBU -14.6	—
Total	—	144.5	—
Projected score	—	LAF 64.9 · SBU 79.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	SBU -8.6	—
1H total	67.6	—
1H projected score	LAF 29.5 · SBU 38.1	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LAF WLWWL	13-17	43%	10-6	—
SBU LLWWW	13-20	39%	3-12	—

Venue/role: LAF away; SBU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
LAF OUUOO	17-13	57%	10-21
SBU OUOUU	19-14	58%	16-17

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LAF	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%
SBU	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Lafayette

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 18	vs BING	L81–82LO
Nov 21	@ SYR	L63–97LO
Nov 27	vs NIA	W59–47WU

St Bonaventure

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 19	vs BUF	W77–69WO
Nov 23	vs APP	No recent meeting
Nov 24	vs WRST	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Lafayette

31 games played

Straight up

10-21

32% wins

Against the spread

13-17

43% covers · avg −2.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

17-13

57% overs · avg +0.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

10-2132%

L L L L L L W L W L L L L W L L L W L L W W L W L L W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

13-1743%

W L L W L L W L–W L W L W L L L W W L L W L W L L W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

17-1357%

O O O O O U U O–U O O O U O U O U O U O U U U U O O U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@JOES	L 76-85	+13.5	W +4.5	138.5	O 161
Nov 8	@TEX	L 60-97	+25.5	L −11.5	153.5	O 157
Nov 13	vsCOR	L 78-97	+4.5	L −14.5	160.5	O 175
Nov 17	@WVU	L 59-81	+24.5	W +2.5	135.5	O 140
Nov 21	@STO	L 70-74	-1.5	L −5.5	141.5	O 144
Nov 28	vsLEM	L 63-76	-4.5	L −17.5	151.5	U 139
Nov 29	vsBALL	W 55-37	+1.5	W +19.5	140.5	U 92
Nov 30	vsMONM	L 74-88	+1.5	L −12.5	141.5	O 162
Dec 5	vsMERC	W 79-71	—	—	—	—
Dec 8	@PENN	L 72-74	+7.5	W +5.5	150.5	U 146
Dec 18	@CLT	L 67-81	+11.5	L −2.5	137.5	O 148
Dec 20	@GT	L 81-95	+16.5	W +2.5	147.5	O 176
Dec 31	vsCOLG	L 77-85	+6.5	L −1.5	146.5	O 162
Jan 3	@L-MD	W 79-64	-1.5	W +13.5	152.5	U 143
Jan 7	vsBU	L 67-83	+1.5	L −14.5	142.5	O 150
Jan 10	@NAVY	L 50-76	+8.5	L −17.5	141.5	U 126
Jan 14	@BUCK	L 69-76	+2.5	L −4.5	137.5	O 145
Jan 17	vsHC	W 74-55	-2.5	W +16.5	138.5	U 129
Jan 21	@BU	L 73-77	+4.5	W +0.5	145.5	O 150
Jan 24	@LEH	L 59-64	+2.5	L −2.5	143.5	U 123
Jan 28	vsBUCK	W 81-79	-4.5	L −2.5	138.5	O 160
Jan 31	@AMER	W 67-65	+5.5	W +7.5	142.5	U 132
Feb 4	vsNAVY	L 50-65	+3.5	L −11.5	139.5	U 115
Feb 7	@ARMY	W 63-60	-1.5	W +1.5	142.5	U 123
Feb 11	vsL-MD	L 54-68	-3.5	L −17.5	147.5	U 122
Feb 14	vsLEH	L 69-78	-2.5	L −11.5	140.5	O 147
Feb 18	@HC	W 86-83	+1.5	W +4.5	139.5	O 169
Feb 22	vsAMER	L 61-75	+3.5	L −10.5	141.5	U 136
Feb 25	@COLG	W 70-69	+8.5	W +9.5	148.5	U 139
Feb 28	vsARMY	W 83-77	-3.5	W +2.5	144.5	O 160
Mar 3	vsHC	L 77-82	-4.5	L −9.5	141.5	O 159

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

JOES

L 76-85

+4.5

TEX

L 60-97

−11.5

COR

L 78-97

−14.5

WVU

L 59-81

+2.5

STO

L 70-74

−5.5

LEM

L 63-76

−17.5

BALL

W 55-37

+19.5

MONM

L 74-88

−12.5

PENN

L 72-74

+5.5

CLT

L 67-81

−2.5

L 81-95

+2.5

COLG

L 77-85

−1.5

L-MD

W 79-64

+13.5

L 67-83

−14.5

NAVY

L 50-76

−17.5

BUCK

L 69-76

−4.5

W 74-55

+16.5

L 73-77

+0.5

LEH

L 59-64

−2.5

BUCK

W 81-79

−2.5

AMER

W 67-65

+7.5

NAVY

L 50-65

−11.5

ARMY

W 63-60

+1.5

L-MD

L 54-68

−17.5

LEH

L 69-78

−11.5

W 86-83

+4.5

AMER

L 61-75

−10.5

COLG

W 70-69

+9.5

ARMY

W 83-77

+2.5

L 77-82

−9.5

covered 13didn’t cover 17avg −2.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

JOES

L 76-85

+22.5

TEX

L 60-97

+3.5

COR

L 78-97

+14.5

WVU

L 59-81

+4.5

STO

L 70-74

+2.5

LEM

L 63-76

−12.5

BALL

W 55-37

−48.5

MONM

L 74-88

+20.5

PENN

L 72-74

−4.5

CLT

L 67-81

+10.5

L 81-95

+28.5

COLG

L 77-85

+15.5

L-MD

W 79-64

−9.5

L 67-83

+7.5

NAVY

L 50-76

−15.5

BUCK

L 69-76

+7.5

W 74-55

−9.5

L 73-77

+4.5

LEH

L 59-64

−20.5

BUCK

W 81-79

+21.5

AMER

W 67-65

−10.5

NAVY

L 50-65

−24.5

ARMY

W 63-60

−19.5

L-MD

L 54-68

−25.5

LEH

L 69-78

+6.5

W 86-83

+29.5

AMER

L 61-75

−5.5

COLG

W 70-69

−9.5

ARMY

W 83-77

+15.5

L 77-82

+17.5

over 17under 13avg +0.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

St Bonaventure

33 games played

Straight up

16-17

48% wins

Against the spread

13-20

39% covers · avg −2.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

19-14

58% overs · avg +4.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

16-1748%

W W W W W L W W W W L W L L L L L W L W L L W L L L W L L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

13-2039%

W L L L W L L W W L L L W L L L L W L W L W W L L L W L L L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

19-1458%

U O O O U O U U O O O O O O O U O O U O O U U U U O O U O U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsBRAD	W 69-63	-1.5	W +4.5	139.5	U 132
Nov 8	vsCAN	W 89-70	-21.5	L −2.5	136.5	O 159
Nov 12	vsSIE	W 75-66	-9.5	L −0.5	140.5	O 141
Nov 15	vsYSU	W 84-80	-9.5	L −5.5	146.5	O 164
Nov 20	vsRMU	W 75-61	-11.5	W +2.5	146.5	U 136
Nov 25	vsUNC	L 70-85	+10.5	L −4.5	152.5	O 155
Nov 27	vsECU	W 67-58	-10.5	L −1.5	144.5	U 125
Nov 30	@FAU	W 70-65	+1.5	W +6.5	146.5	U 135
Dec 6	@BUF	W 77-69	-5.5	W +2.5	144.5	O 146
Dec 10	vsCOLG	W 85-77	-9.5	L −1.5	142.5	O 162
Dec 13	vsOHIO	L 83-88	-6.5	L −11.5	150.5	O 171
Dec 20	vsLEM	W 92-81	-21.5	L −10.5	151.5	O 173
Dec 31	@VCU	L 82-89	+9.5	W +2.5	157.5	O 171
Jan 7	vsRICH	L 80-89	-6.5	L −15.5	153.5	O 169
Jan 10	vsFOR	L 77-81	-8.5	L −12.5	142.5	O 158
Jan 14	@JOES	L 64-68	-1.5	L −5.5	147.5	U 132
Jan 17	@LAS	L 74-78	-5.5	L −9.5	141.5	O 152
Jan 20	vsLUC	W 84-70	-10.5	W +3.5	147.5	O 154
Jan 23	vsSLU	L 62-97	+8.5	L −26.5	159.5	U 159
Jan 28	@DUQ	W 87-79	+3.5	W +11.5	150.5	O 166
Jan 31	vsGMU	L 73-77	+1.5	L −2.5	142.5	O 150
Feb 3	@DAY	L 70-72	+7.5	W +5.5	144.5	U 142
Feb 7	@FOR	W 70-67	-1.5	W +1.5	141.5	U 137
Feb 14	vsDUQ	L 73-78	-1.5	L −6.5	152.5	U 151
Feb 18	vsJOES	L 65-71	-5.5	L −11.5	147.5	U 136
Feb 21	@RICH	L 94-99	+1.5	L −3.5	147.5	O 193
Feb 26	vsURI	W 94-76	-2.5	W +15.5	144.5	O 170
Feb 28	@GMU	L 58-71	+3.5	L −9.5	146.5	U 129
Mar 4	@GW	L 82-91	+7.5	L −1.5	157.5	O 173
Mar 7	vsDAV	L 63-68	-4.5	L −9.5	141.5	U 131
Mar 11	vsLAS	W 99-80	-7.5	W +11.5	146.5	O 179
Mar 12	vsGMU	W 63-57	+2.5	W +8.5	143.5	U 120
Mar 13	vsDAY	L 63-68	+5.5	W +0.5	141.5	U 131

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BRAD

W 69-63

+4.5

CAN

W 89-70

−2.5

SIE

W 75-66

−0.5

YSU

W 84-80

−5.5

RMU

W 75-61

+2.5

UNC

L 70-85

−4.5

ECU

W 67-58

−1.5

FAU

W 70-65

+6.5

BUF

W 77-69

+2.5

COLG

W 85-77

−1.5

OHIO

L 83-88

−11.5

LEM

W 92-81

−10.5

VCU

L 82-89

+2.5

RICH

L 80-89

−15.5

FOR

L 77-81

−12.5

JOES

L 64-68

−5.5

LAS

L 74-78

−9.5

LUC

W 84-70

+3.5

SLU

L 62-97

−26.5

DUQ

W 87-79

+11.5

GMU

L 73-77

−2.5

DAY

L 70-72

+5.5

FOR

W 70-67

+1.5

DUQ

L 73-78

−6.5

JOES

L 65-71

−11.5

RICH

L 94-99

−3.5

URI

W 94-76

+15.5

GMU

L 58-71

−9.5

L 82-91

−1.5

DAV

L 63-68

−9.5

LAS

W 99-80

+11.5

GMU

W 63-57

+8.5

DAY

L 63-68

+0.5

covered 13didn’t cover 20avg −2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BRAD

W 69-63

−7.5

CAN

W 89-70

+22.5

SIE

W 75-66

+0.5

YSU

W 84-80

+17.5

RMU

W 75-61

−10.5

UNC

L 70-85

+2.5

ECU

W 67-58

−19.5

FAU

W 70-65

−11.5

BUF

W 77-69

+1.5

COLG

W 85-77

+19.5

OHIO

L 83-88

+20.5

LEM

W 92-81

+21.5

VCU

L 82-89

+13.5

RICH

L 80-89

+15.5

FOR

L 77-81

+15.5

JOES

L 64-68

−15.5

LAS

L 74-78

+10.5

LUC

W 84-70

+6.5

SLU

L 62-97

−0.5

DUQ

W 87-79

+15.5

GMU

L 73-77

+7.5

DAY

L 70-72

−2.5

FOR

W 70-67

−4.5

DUQ

L 73-78

−1.5

JOES

L 65-71

−11.5

RICH

L 94-99

+45.5

URI

W 94-76

+25.5

GMU

L 58-71

−17.5

L 82-91

+15.5

DAV

L 63-68

−10.5

LAS

W 99-80

+32.5

GMU

W 63-57

−23.5

DAY

L 63-68

−10.5

over 19under 14avg +4.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

St Bonaventure has the better starters

Position by position: Lafayette 0, St Bonaventure 2, even 3

LafayetteBetterSt Bonaventure

G P. D'Arcy TR1.1 pts · 0.6 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked

No call

G A. Fulton TR10.7 pts · 6.3 reb · 1.2 ast Score 62

F S. Jackson10.2 pts · 5 reb · 1.6 ast Score 67

No call

G I. Ermakov2.6 pts · 1.1 reb · 0.9 ast Not ranked

F K. Murdock2.7 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.4 ast Score 16

SBUSmall

F R. Kalambay TR4.4 pts · 5.6 reb · 0.6 ast Score 40

F L. Bevilacqua2.7 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.5 ast Score 13

SBUSmall

F J. Grahovac4.2 pts · 2.8 reb · 0.8 ast Score 33

C M. Bednostin1.5 pts · 1.9 reb · 0.7 ast Score 8

Even

F M. Blackwood TR2.6 pts · 1.8 reb · 0.2 ast Score 22

LafayetteBetterSt Bonaventure

LAF offense331st of 366 · -10.8

SBUBig

SBU defense131st of 366 · -2.4

LAF defense245th of 366 · -6.5

SBUSmall

SBU offense169th of 366 · -5.2

Backcourt-0.7 · 1 player

Even

Backcourt-0.4 · 2 players

Frontcourt-2.4 · 4 players

Even

Frontcourt-2.4 · 3 players

Bench-1.4 · 4 players

Even

Bench-0.6 · 2 players

Score, worst to bestLAF betterSBU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Lafayette

Guards

P. D'Arcy7 min · TRF. Fayemi6 minA. Wallace4 minB. CurrieNewC. KeslerNewS. HentonNew

Forwards

S. Jackson22 minK. Murdock10 minL. Bevilacqua9 minM. Rasul4 minL. Azzinaro2 minJ. GillNew

Centers

M. Bednostin10 min

St Bonaventure

Guards

A. Fulton29 min · TRI. Ermakov10 minA. Lonati8 minJ. DeRose1 minR. HeathNewZ. PhilipkoskiNew

Forwards

R. Kalambay21 min · TRJ. Grahovac18 minM. Blackwood12 min · TRJ. IkpotokinNewC. BlankenbergNew

Centers

B. BillNewC. DialloNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

LAF69.1 #297

SBU76.2 #138

Points per possession

LAF1.03 #289

SBU1.12 #104

Pace (possessions)

LAF67.2 #274

SBU68.0 #228

Shooting

Effective FG%

LAF49.3 #278

SBU52.4 #129

3-point %

LAF32.1 #273

SBU37.4 #22

3-point attempt rate

LAF39.8 #173

SBU31.3 #335

Free throw rate

LAF32.5 #249

SBU30.0 #310

Possessions

Turnover rate

LAF15.3 #89

SBU16.8 #189

Offensive rebound rate

LAF25.8 #326

SBU34.5 #60

Assists per game

LAF13.6 #175

SBU15.4 #73

Defense

Points allowed

LAF75.4 #200

SBU75.4 #201

Points allowed per possession

LAF1.12 #275

SBU1.11 #245

Opponent effective FG%

LAF53.6 #286

SBU53.3 #278

Opponent 3-point %

LAF36.0 #298

SBU36.0 #299

Turnovers forced

LAF15.1 #273

SBU17.1 #144

Defensive rebound rate

LAF71.4 #88

SBU70.2 #150

Steals per game

LAF5.3 #316

SBU7.5 #80

Blocks per game

LAF2.3 #324

SBU4.4 #41

LAF		SBU
Scoring
69.1 #297	Points per game	76.2 #138
1.03 #289	Points per possession	1.12 #104
67.2 #274	Pace (possessions)	68.0 #228
Shooting
49.3 #278	Effective FG%	52.4 #129
32.1 #273	3-point %	37.4 #22
39.8 #173	3-point attempt rate	31.3 #335
32.5 #249	Free throw rate	30.0 #310
Possessions
15.3 #89	Turnover rate	16.8 #189
25.8 #326	Offensive rebound rate	34.5 #60
13.6 #175	Assists per game	15.4 #73
Defense
75.4 #200	Points allowed	75.4 #201
1.12 #275	Points allowed per possession	1.11 #245
53.6 #286	Opponent effective FG%	53.3 #278
36.0 #298	Opponent 3-point %	36.0 #299
15.1 #273	Turnovers forced	17.1 #144
71.4 #88	Defensive rebound rate	70.2 #150
5.3 #316	Steals per game	7.5 #80
2.3 #324	Blocks per game	4.4 #41

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Lafayette

10-21 in 2025-26 overall · 8-11 in conference · Patriot League

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Holy Cross77–82
Wvs Army83–77
W@ Colgate70–69
Lvs American61–75
W@ Holy Cross86–83

A week or more of rest.

St Bonaventure

16-17 in 2025-26 overall · 6-15 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Dayton63–68
Wvs George Mason63–57
Wvs La Salle99–80
Lvs Davidson63–68
L@ G Washington82–91

A week or more of rest.

Lafayette Leopards at St. Bonaventure Bonnies

What could decide it: SBU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Lafayette

St Bonaventure

St Bonaventure has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Lafayette

St Bonaventure