Buffalo Bulls at St. Bonaventure Bonnies: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Nov 19, 7:00 PM ETReilly Center · at St Bonaventure

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Buffalo and St Bonaventure
BUF	This season	SBU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects SBU 78–71 · win probability SBU 74%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 148.8

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: SBU has more of the edges

BUF 1, SBU 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

BUFBig

Free throws

Free throw rate: BUF 39.6, SBU 30.0. Allowed: BUF 31.4, SBU 33.9

SBUBig

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: BUF 27.1%, SBU 34.5%. Defensive: BUF 68.9%, SBU 70.2%

Context

Schedule so far

BUF has played the 198th-hardest schedule, SBU the 109th. A record against a soft schedule means less

SBUSmall

SBU offense vs BUF defense

Offense 169th of 366 against a defense 257th, on the model’s ratings

SBUSmall

BUF offense vs SBU defense

Offense 215th of 366 against a defense 131st, on the model’s ratings

SBUSmall

Home court

SBU at home. This season: SBU 0-0 at home, BUF 0-0 away

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: BUF 16.2%, SBU 16.8%. Forced: BUF 17.8%, SBU 17.1%

Even

Three-pointers

BUF hits 37.9% and allows 35.1%; SBU hits 37.4% and allows 36.0%. Threes are 45.5% and 31.3% of their shots

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: BUF 55.4 and allows 55.1; SBU 52.4 and allows 53.3

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: BUF 8%, SBU 18%. Transfers in: BUF 7, SBU 3. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: BUF plays 68.2 a game (219th fastest), SBU 68.0 (228th). Faster games mean more points

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	SBU -7.3	—
Total	—	148.8	—
Projected score	—	BUF 70.7 · SBU 78

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	SBU -4.2	—
1H total	69.6	—
1H projected score	BUF 32.7 · SBU 36.9	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BUF WLLLW	17-13	57%	10-4	—
SBU LLWWW	13-20	39%	3-12	—

Venue/role: BUF away; SBU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
BUF OUUOU	16-14	53%	15-15
SBU OUOUU	19-14	58%	16-17

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BUF	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	4-6 40%
SBU	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Buffalo

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 28	vs TOW	No recent meeting
Dec 2	@ WMU	W88–71WO
Dec 5	vs M-OH	L71–73WU

St Bonaventure

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 23	vs APP	No recent meeting
Nov 24	vs WRST	No recent meeting
Nov 25	vs BEL	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

BUF 1–4 SBUSBU leads · 5 games since 2021-22 · SBU has won the last 3 meetings · BUF 3-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 6, 2025-26	SBU 77 @ BUF 69	BUF +5.5	SBU W
Dec 7, 2024-25	BUF 55 @ SBU 65	SBU -17.5	BUF W
Dec 2, 2023-24	SBU 80 @ BUF 65	BUF +9.5	SBU W
Dec 3, 2022-23	SBU 66 @ BUF 83	BUF +2.5	BUF W
Dec 4, 2021-22	BUF 65 @ SBU 68	SBU -3.5	BUF W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Buffalo

30 games played

Straight up

15-15

50% wins

Against the spread

17-13

57% covers · avg +1.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-14

53% overs · avg +2.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

15-1550%

W W W W W W W L W L W W W L L L L L W L L L W L W L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

17-1357%

W W W W W L W L W L W W W L L W L L W L W L W L W W L L L W

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

16-1453%

O O U O U U U O O U O U O O O O U U O O U O U U O O U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsUSM	W 85-79	-3.5	W +2.5	153.5	O 164
Nov 7	vsGB	W 83-76	-3.5	W +3.5	147.5	O 159
Nov 11	@DEP	W 66-53	+18.5	W +31.5	153.5	U 119
Nov 18	vsUVM	W 94-90	+1.5	W +5.5	141.5	O 184
Nov 24	vsVMI	W 78-70	-5.5	W +2.5	150.5	U 148
Nov 26	vsBUCK	W 73-71	-4.5	L −2.5	146.5	U 144
Nov 29	@CAN	W 71-53	-9.5	W +8.5	139.5	U 124
Dec 6	vsSBU	L 69-77	+5.5	L −2.5	144.5	O 146
Dec 9	@UMBC	W 83-79	-3.5	W +0.5	145.5	O 162
Dec 14	@ECU	L 70-73	+1.5	L −1.5	146.5	U 143
Dec 20	@WMU	W 88-71	-2.5	W +14.5	150.5	O 159
Dec 31	@NIU	W 81-67	-6.5	W +7.5	152.5	U 148
Jan 3	vsBALL	W 85-72	-6.5	W +6.5	145.5	O 157
Jan 10	@OHIO	L 80-91	+4.5	L −6.5	156.5	O 171
Jan 13	vsKENT	L 81-87	+2.5	L −3.5	165.5	O 168
Jan 17	@M-OH	L 102-105	+10.5	W +7.5	162.5	O 207
Jan 20	vsAKR	L 63-82	+8.5	L −10.5	166.5	U 145
Jan 23	vsMASS	L 67-68	-1.5	L −2.5	159.5	U 135
Jan 27	@BGSU	W 89-78	+7.5	W +18.5	150.5	O 167
Jan 31	vsOHIO	L 83-95	-2.5	L −14.5	156.5	O 178
Feb 3	vsM-OH	L 71-73	+4.5	W +2.5	165.5	U 144
Feb 7	@USA	L 69-81	+3.5	L −8.5	145.5	O 150
Feb 11	@BALL	W 63-53	+1.5	W +11.5	141.5	U 116
Feb 17	vsNIU	L 70-72	-9.5	L −11.5	145.5	U 142
Feb 21	@MASS	W 86-82	+7.5	W +11.5	151.5	O 168
Feb 24	@AKR	L 85-99	+15.5	W +1.5	160.5	O 184
Feb 28	vsCMU	L 70-75	-5.5	L −10.5	151.5	U 145
Mar 3	vsEMU	W 72-67	-5.5	L −0.5	143.5	U 139
Mar 6	@TOL	L 78-99	+5.5	L −15.5	155.5	O 177
Mar 12	vsAKR	L 70-73	+12.5	W +9.5	158.5	U 143

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

USM

W 85-79

+2.5

W 83-76

+3.5

DEP

W 66-53

+31.5

UVM

W 94-90

+5.5

VMI

W 78-70

+2.5

BUCK

W 73-71

−2.5

CAN

W 71-53

+8.5

SBU

L 69-77

−2.5

UMBC

W 83-79

+0.5

ECU

L 70-73

−1.5

WMU

W 88-71

+14.5

NIU

W 81-67

+7.5

BALL

W 85-72

+6.5

OHIO

L 80-91

−6.5

KENT

L 81-87

−3.5

M-OH

L 102-105

+7.5

AKR

L 63-82

−10.5

MASS

L 67-68

−2.5

BGSU

W 89-78

+18.5

OHIO

L 83-95

−14.5

M-OH

L 71-73

+2.5

USA

L 69-81

−8.5

BALL

W 63-53

+11.5

NIU

L 70-72

−11.5

MASS

W 86-82

+11.5

AKR

L 85-99

+1.5

CMU

L 70-75

−10.5

EMU

W 72-67

−0.5

TOL

L 78-99

−15.5

AKR

L 70-73

+9.5

covered 17didn’t cover 13avg +1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

USM

W 85-79

+10.5

W 83-76

+11.5

DEP

W 66-53

−34.5

UVM

W 94-90

+42.5

VMI

W 78-70

−2.5

BUCK

W 73-71

−2.5

CAN

W 71-53

−15.5

SBU

L 69-77

+1.5

UMBC

W 83-79

+16.5

ECU

L 70-73

−3.5

WMU

W 88-71

+8.5

NIU

W 81-67

−4.5

BALL

W 85-72

+11.5

OHIO

L 80-91

+14.5

KENT

L 81-87

+2.5

M-OH

L 102-105

+44.5

AKR

L 63-82

−21.5

MASS

L 67-68

−24.5

BGSU

W 89-78

+16.5

OHIO

L 83-95

+21.5

M-OH

L 71-73

−21.5

USA

L 69-81

+4.5

BALL

W 63-53

−25.5

NIU

L 70-72

−3.5

MASS

W 86-82

+16.5

AKR

L 85-99

+23.5

CMU

L 70-75

−6.5

EMU

W 72-67

−4.5

TOL

L 78-99

+21.5

AKR

L 70-73

−15.5

over 16under 14avg +2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

St Bonaventure

33 games played

Straight up

16-17

48% wins

Against the spread

13-20

39% covers · avg −2.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

19-14

58% overs · avg +4.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

16-1748%

W W W W W L W W W W L W L L L L L W L W L L W L L L W L L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

13-2039%

W L L L W L L W W L L L W L L L L W L W L W W L L L W L L L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

19-1458%

U O O O U O U U O O O O O O O U O O U O O U U U U O O U O U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsBRAD	W 69-63	-1.5	W +4.5	139.5	U 132
Nov 8	vsCAN	W 89-70	-21.5	L −2.5	136.5	O 159
Nov 12	vsSIE	W 75-66	-9.5	L −0.5	140.5	O 141
Nov 15	vsYSU	W 84-80	-9.5	L −5.5	146.5	O 164
Nov 20	vsRMU	W 75-61	-11.5	W +2.5	146.5	U 136
Nov 25	vsUNC	L 70-85	+10.5	L −4.5	152.5	O 155
Nov 27	vsECU	W 67-58	-10.5	L −1.5	144.5	U 125
Nov 30	@FAU	W 70-65	+1.5	W +6.5	146.5	U 135
Dec 6	@BUF	W 77-69	-5.5	W +2.5	144.5	O 146
Dec 10	vsCOLG	W 85-77	-9.5	L −1.5	142.5	O 162
Dec 13	vsOHIO	L 83-88	-6.5	L −11.5	150.5	O 171
Dec 20	vsLEM	W 92-81	-21.5	L −10.5	151.5	O 173
Dec 31	@VCU	L 82-89	+9.5	W +2.5	157.5	O 171
Jan 7	vsRICH	L 80-89	-6.5	L −15.5	153.5	O 169
Jan 10	vsFOR	L 77-81	-8.5	L −12.5	142.5	O 158
Jan 14	@JOES	L 64-68	-1.5	L −5.5	147.5	U 132
Jan 17	@LAS	L 74-78	-5.5	L −9.5	141.5	O 152
Jan 20	vsLUC	W 84-70	-10.5	W +3.5	147.5	O 154
Jan 23	vsSLU	L 62-97	+8.5	L −26.5	159.5	U 159
Jan 28	@DUQ	W 87-79	+3.5	W +11.5	150.5	O 166
Jan 31	vsGMU	L 73-77	+1.5	L −2.5	142.5	O 150
Feb 3	@DAY	L 70-72	+7.5	W +5.5	144.5	U 142
Feb 7	@FOR	W 70-67	-1.5	W +1.5	141.5	U 137
Feb 14	vsDUQ	L 73-78	-1.5	L −6.5	152.5	U 151
Feb 18	vsJOES	L 65-71	-5.5	L −11.5	147.5	U 136
Feb 21	@RICH	L 94-99	+1.5	L −3.5	147.5	O 193
Feb 26	vsURI	W 94-76	-2.5	W +15.5	144.5	O 170
Feb 28	@GMU	L 58-71	+3.5	L −9.5	146.5	U 129
Mar 4	@GW	L 82-91	+7.5	L −1.5	157.5	O 173
Mar 7	vsDAV	L 63-68	-4.5	L −9.5	141.5	U 131
Mar 11	vsLAS	W 99-80	-7.5	W +11.5	146.5	O 179
Mar 12	vsGMU	W 63-57	+2.5	W +8.5	143.5	U 120
Mar 13	vsDAY	L 63-68	+5.5	W +0.5	141.5	U 131

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BRAD

W 69-63

+4.5

CAN

W 89-70

−2.5

SIE

W 75-66

−0.5

YSU

W 84-80

−5.5

RMU

W 75-61

+2.5

UNC

L 70-85

−4.5

ECU

W 67-58

−1.5

FAU

W 70-65

+6.5

BUF

W 77-69

+2.5

COLG

W 85-77

−1.5

OHIO

L 83-88

−11.5

LEM

W 92-81

−10.5

VCU

L 82-89

+2.5

RICH

L 80-89

−15.5

FOR

L 77-81

−12.5

JOES

L 64-68

−5.5

LAS

L 74-78

−9.5

LUC

W 84-70

+3.5

SLU

L 62-97

−26.5

DUQ

W 87-79

+11.5

GMU

L 73-77

−2.5

DAY

L 70-72

+5.5

FOR

W 70-67

+1.5

DUQ

L 73-78

−6.5

JOES

L 65-71

−11.5

RICH

L 94-99

−3.5

URI

W 94-76

+15.5

GMU

L 58-71

−9.5

L 82-91

−1.5

DAV

L 63-68

−9.5

LAS

W 99-80

+11.5

GMU

W 63-57

+8.5

DAY

L 63-68

+0.5

covered 13didn’t cover 20avg −2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BRAD

W 69-63

−7.5

CAN

W 89-70

+22.5

SIE

W 75-66

+0.5

YSU

W 84-80

+17.5

RMU

W 75-61

−10.5

UNC

L 70-85

+2.5

ECU

W 67-58

−19.5

FAU

W 70-65

−11.5

BUF

W 77-69

+1.5

COLG

W 85-77

+19.5

OHIO

L 83-88

+20.5

LEM

W 92-81

+21.5

VCU

L 82-89

+13.5

RICH

L 80-89

+15.5

FOR

L 77-81

+15.5

JOES

L 64-68

−15.5

LAS

L 74-78

+10.5

LUC

W 84-70

+6.5

SLU

L 62-97

−0.5

DUQ

W 87-79

+15.5

GMU

L 73-77

+7.5

DAY

L 70-72

−2.5

FOR

W 70-67

−4.5

DUQ

L 73-78

−1.5

JOES

L 65-71

−11.5

RICH

L 94-99

+45.5

URI

W 94-76

+25.5

GMU

L 58-71

−17.5

L 82-91

+15.5

DAV

L 63-68

−10.5

LAS

W 99-80

+32.5

GMU

W 63-57

−23.5

DAY

L 63-68

−10.5

over 19under 14avg +4.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Buffalo has the better starters

Position by position: Buffalo 2, St Bonaventure 1, even 2

BuffaloBetterSt Bonaventure

G D. Steffe TR9.9 pts · 3 reb · 2.5 ast Score 39

SBUSmall

G A. Fulton TR10.7 pts · 6.3 reb · 1.2 ast Score 62

G D. Ducommun TR10.8 pts · 2.8 reb · 3.3 ast Score 15

No call

G I. Ermakov2.6 pts · 1.1 reb · 0.9 ast Not ranked

G J. Starling TR10.9 pts · 2.7 reb · 2.4 ast Score 55

BUFSmall

F R. Kalambay TR4.4 pts · 5.6 reb · 0.6 ast Score 40

F J. Pitre TR5.9 pts · 6.4 reb · 0.9 ast Score 30

Even

F J. Grahovac4.2 pts · 2.8 reb · 0.8 ast Score 33

F A. Lorick TR10.2 pts · 5.1 reb · 1.1 ast Score 75

BUFBig

F M. Blackwood TR2.6 pts · 1.8 reb · 0.2 ast Score 22

BuffaloBetterSt Bonaventure

BUF offense215th of 366 · -6.6

SBUSmall

SBU defense131st of 366 · -2.4

BUF defense257th of 366 · -6.7

SBUSmall

SBU offense169th of 366 · -5.2

Backcourt-5.1 · 3 players

SBUBig

Backcourt-0.4 · 2 players

Frontcourt-0.2 · 2 players

BUFSmall

Frontcourt-2.4 · 3 players

Bench-3.9 · 4 players

SBUBig

Bench-0.6 · 2 players

Score, worst to bestBUF betterSBU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Buffalo

Guards

D. Steffe31 min · TRD. Ducommun31 min · TRJ. Starling29 min · TRM. Tyne19 min · TRK. Jones10 minH. Reede9 min · TR

Forwards

J. Pitre25 min · TRA. Lorick22 min · TRM. Buteliauskas6 minB. JohnNewT. KuskaNew

St Bonaventure

Guards

A. Fulton29 min · TRI. Ermakov10 minA. Lonati8 minJ. DeRose1 minR. HeathNewZ. PhilipkoskiNew

Forwards

R. Kalambay21 min · TRJ. Grahovac18 minM. Blackwood12 min · TRJ. IkpotokinNewC. BlankenbergNew

Centers

B. BillNewC. DialloNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

BUF77.5 #106

SBU76.2 #138

Points per possession

BUF1.14 #73

SBU1.12 #104

Pace (possessions)

BUF68.2 #219

SBU68.0 #228

Shooting

Effective FG%

BUF55.4 #30

SBU52.4 #129

3-point %

BUF37.9 #20

SBU37.4 #22

3-point attempt rate

BUF45.5 #57

SBU31.3 #335

Free throw rate

BUF39.6 #65

SBU30.0 #310

Possessions

Turnover rate

BUF16.2 #152

SBU16.8 #189

Offensive rebound rate

BUF27.1 #291

SBU34.5 #60

Assists per game

BUF14.1 #138

SBU15.4 #73

Defense

Points allowed

BUF77.0 #244

SBU75.4 #201

Points allowed per possession

BUF1.13 #279

SBU1.11 #245

Opponent effective FG%

BUF55.1 #333

SBU53.3 #278

Opponent 3-point %

BUF35.1 #252

SBU36.0 #299

Turnovers forced

BUF17.8 #105

SBU17.1 #144

Defensive rebound rate

BUF68.9 #209

SBU70.2 #150

Steals per game

BUF7.6 #72

SBU7.5 #80

Blocks per game

BUF2.8 #262

SBU4.4 #41

BUF		SBU
Scoring
77.5 #106	Points per game	76.2 #138
1.14 #73	Points per possession	1.12 #104
68.2 #219	Pace (possessions)	68.0 #228
Shooting
55.4 #30	Effective FG%	52.4 #129
37.9 #20	3-point %	37.4 #22
45.5 #57	3-point attempt rate	31.3 #335
39.6 #65	Free throw rate	30.0 #310
Possessions
16.2 #152	Turnover rate	16.8 #189
27.1 #291	Offensive rebound rate	34.5 #60
14.1 #138	Assists per game	15.4 #73
Defense
77.0 #244	Points allowed	75.4 #201
1.13 #279	Points allowed per possession	1.11 #245
55.1 #333	Opponent effective FG%	53.3 #278
35.1 #252	Opponent 3-point %	36.0 #299
17.8 #105	Turnovers forced	17.1 #144
68.9 #209	Defensive rebound rate	70.2 #150
7.6 #72	Steals per game	7.5 #80
2.8 #262	Blocks per game	4.4 #41

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Buffalo

15-15 in 2025-26 overall · 7-12 in conference · Mid-American Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Akron70–73
L@ Toledo78–99
Wvs E Michigan72–67
Lvs C Michigan70–75
L@ Akron85–99

A week or more of rest.

St Bonaventure

16-17 in 2025-26 overall · 6-15 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Dayton63–68
Wvs George Mason63–57
Wvs La Salle99–80
Lvs Davidson63–68
L@ G Washington82–91

A week or more of rest.

Buffalo Bulls at St. Bonaventure Bonnies

What could decide it: SBU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Buffalo

St Bonaventure

Buffalo has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Buffalo

St Bonaventure