1. NCAAB
  2. Thu, Nov 19
  3. UMBC @ OSU
NCAAB · Thu, Nov 19

UMBC Retrievers at Ohio State Buckeyes

Schottenstein Center · at Ohio State
#264UMBCUMBC
@
#33OSUOhio State
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
UMBCThis seasonOSU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects OSU 89–61 · win probability OSU 99%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 150.0
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: OSU has more of the edges

UMBC 0, OSU 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Schedule so far
UMBC has played the 342nd-hardest schedule, OSU the 33rd. A record against a soft schedule means less
OSUBig
OSU offense vs UMBC defense
Offense 36th of 366 against a defense 279th, on the model’s ratings
OSUBig
UMBC offense vs OSU defense
Offense 255th of 366 against a defense 35th, on the model’s ratings
OSUSmall
Home court
OSU at home. This season: OSU 0-0 at home, UMBC 0-0 away
OSUSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UMBC 11%, OSU 37%. Transfers in: UMBC 2, OSU 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: UMBC 34.1, OSU 37.2. Allowed: UMBC 25.7, OSU 34.7
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UMBC 14.1%, OSU 15.3%. Forced: UMBC 15.1%, OSU 15.6%
Even
Three-pointers
UMBC hits 36.1% and allows 32.7%; OSU hits 35.7% and allows 31.9%. Threes are 38.8% and 40.1% of their shots
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UMBC 24.9%, OSU 30.4%. Defensive: UMBC 74.2%, OSU 70.0%
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: UMBC 54.1 and allows 49.4; OSU 56.2 and allows 50.2
Context
Tempo
About 67 possessions: UMBC plays 67.0 a game (278th fastest), OSU 67.2 (275th). Faster games mean more points
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—OSU -27.5—
Total—150.0—
Projected score—UMBC 61.2 · OSU 88.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadOSU -16.2—
1H total70.1—
1H projected scoreUMBC 27 · OSU 43.2—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Ohio State has the better starters

Position by position: UMBC 0, Ohio State 3, even 2
UMBCBetterOhio State
G F. Burton TR14.9 pts · 3.1 reb · 2.9 ast Score 63
OSUSmall
G J. Mobley15.7 pts · 2.4 reb · 2.8 ast Score 93
G A. Cross TR3.2 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.3 ast Score 1
OSUBig
G J. Pippen TR13.9 pts · 4 reb · 4.6 ast Score 90
G D. Ceaser4.3 pts · 1 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
No call
G J. Williams TR14.9 pts · 4.5 reb · 2.6 ast Score 92
F R. Jacobs4.2 pts · 3.6 reb · 0.6 ast Score 24
OSUBig
G C. Givens TR9.4 pts · 2.1 reb · 2.3 ast Score 65
F R. Ciunys NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
No call
F A. Bynum9.7 pts · 4.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 73
UMBCBetterOhio State
UMBC offense255th of 366 · -7.8
OSUBig
OSU defense35th of 366 · +3.3
UMBC defense279th of 366 · -7.0
OSUBig
OSU offense36th of 366 · +5.2
Backcourt-2.9 · 3 players
OSUBig
Backcourt+9.1 · 4 players
Frontcourt-1.0 · 2 players
OSUSmall
Frontcourt+1.1 · 1 player
BenchNo numbers yet
No call
Bench+1.0 · 3 players
Score, worst to bestUMBC betterOSU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
UMBC
Guards
F. Burton32 min · TRA. Cross16 min · TRD. Ceaser8 minJ. RisticNewJ. ReynoldsNewT. SlatingNew
Forwards
R. Jacobs15 minR. CiunysNewA. BarryNewJ. NdongNewS. HuanNew
Ohio State
Guards
J. Mobley32 minJ. Pippen31 min · TRJ. Williams30 min · TRC. Givens26 min · TRB. Nash2 minM. HerroNew
Forwards
A. Bynum29 minA. Jelavic16 min · TRJ. OjianwunaNewA. ThompsonNewA. SmithNewV. LazarevicNew
Centers
I. Njegovan11 min
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
UMBCOSU
Scoring
75.7 #149Points per game79.3 #76
1.13 #85Points per possession1.18 #31
67.0 #278Pace (possessions)67.2 #275
Shooting
54.1 #64Effective FG%56.2 #19
36.1 #553-point %35.7 #72
38.8 #1953-point attempt rate40.1 #170
34.1 #205Free throw rate37.2 #122
Possessions
14.1 #25Turnover rate15.3 #91
24.9 #342Offensive rebound rate30.4 #185
11.9 #291Assists per game14.5 #117
Defense
68.5 #41Points allowed72.6 #120
1.02 #46Points allowed per possession1.08 #164
49.4 #79Opponent effective FG%50.2 #114
32.7 #98Opponent 3-point %31.9 #57
15.1 #283Turnovers forced15.6 #243
74.2 #18Defensive rebound rate70.0 #160
4.9 #338Steals per game4.8 #340
2.4 #314Blocks per game2.4 #311
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

UMBC

22-9 in 2025-26 overall · 17-2 in conference · America East Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Howard83–86
  • Wvs Vermont74–59
  • Wvs UMass Lowell91–69
  • Wvs New Hampshire84–69
  • W@ NJIT91–52

A week or more of rest.

Ohio State

21-13 in 2025-26 overall · 13-9 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs TCU64–66
  • Lvs Michigan67–71
  • Wvs Iowa72–69
  • Wvs Indiana91–78
  • W@ Penn State94–62

A week or more of rest.