1. NCAAB
  2. Tue, Nov 24
  3. UMBC @ IOWA
NCAAB · Tue, Nov 24

UMBC Retrievers at Iowa Hawkeyes

Carver-Hawkeye Arena · at Iowa
#264UMBCUMBC
@
#43IOWAIowa
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
UMBCThis seasonIOWA
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects IOWA 85–58 · win probability IOWA 99%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 142.4
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: IOWA has more of the edges

UMBC 2, IOWA 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Schedule so far
UMBC has played the 342nd-hardest schedule, IOWA the 30th. A record against a soft schedule means less
IOWABig
UMBC offense vs IOWA defense
Offense 255th of 366 against a defense 20th, on the model’s ratings
IOWABig
IOWA offense vs UMBC defense
Offense 69th of 366 against a defense 279th, on the model’s ratings
UMBCBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: UMBC 34.1, IOWA 35.1. Allowed: UMBC 25.7, IOWA 38.5
IOWASmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UMBC 14.1%, IOWA 15.1%. Forced: UMBC 15.1%, IOWA 20.3%
IOWASmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UMBC 11%, IOWA 61%. Transfers in: UMBC 2, IOWA 2. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
UMBCSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: UMBC 54.1 and allows 49.4; IOWA 56.4 and allows 52.6
IOWASmall
Home court
IOWA at home. This season: IOWA 0-0 at home, UMBC 0-0 away
Context
Tempo
About 65 possessions: UMBC plays 67.0 a game (278th fastest), IOWA 63.0 (365th). Faster games mean more points
Even
Three-pointers
UMBC hits 36.1% and allows 32.7%; IOWA hits 35.6% and allows 33.3%. Threes are 38.8% and 43.0% of their shots
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UMBC 24.9%, IOWA 30.2%. Defensive: UMBC 74.2%, IOWA 70.8%
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—IOWA -26.9—
Total—142.4—
Projected score—UMBC 57.8 · IOWA 84.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadIOWA -15.9—
1H total66.7—
1H projected scoreUMBC 25.4 · IOWA 41.3—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Iowa has the better starters

Position by position: UMBC 0, Iowa 2, even 3
UMBCBetterIowa
G F. Burton TR14.9 pts · 3.1 reb · 2.9 ast Score 63
Even
G K. Combs6.1 pts · 2.4 reb · 2.4 ast Score 54
G A. Cross TR3.2 pts · 1.5 reb · 0.3 ast Score 1
IOWABig
G T. Coleman TR10 pts · 2.7 reb · 1.7 ast Score 82
G D. Ceaser4.3 pts · 1 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked
No call
F C. Koch7.8 pts · 3.1 reb · 1.1 ast Score 57
F R. Jacobs4.2 pts · 3.6 reb · 0.6 ast Score 24
IOWABig
F C. Manyawu6.6 pts · 4.6 reb · 1.1 ast Score 90
F R. Ciunys NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
No call
C A. McKeever TR8.3 pts · 9.1 reb · 1.8 ast Score 77
UMBCBetterIowa
UMBC offense255th of 366 · -7.8
IOWABig
IOWA defense20th of 366 · +5.4
UMBC defense279th of 366 · -7.0
IOWABig
IOWA offense69th of 366 · +1.8
Backcourt-2.9 · 3 players
IOWABig
Backcourt+0.9 · 2 players
Frontcourt-1.0 · 2 players
IOWABig
Frontcourt+4.1 · 3 players
BenchNo numbers yet
No call
Bench+2.0 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestUMBC betterIOWA betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
UMBC
Guards
F. Burton32 min · TRA. Cross16 min · TRD. Ceaser8 minJ. RisticNewJ. ReynoldsNewT. SlatingNew
Forwards
R. Jacobs15 minR. CiunysNewA. BarryNewJ. NdongNewS. HuanNew
Iowa
Guards
K. Combs26 minT. Coleman23 min · TRI. Howard18 minT. Sage16 minJ. Koch2 minP. McCollumNew
Forwards
C. Koch28 minC. Manyawu19 minJ. Matteoni4 minT. ThompsonNew
Centers
A. McKeever23 min · TRT. Jirak8 min
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
UMBCIOWA
Scoring
75.7 #149Points per game74.5 #177
1.13 #85Points per possession1.18 #28
67.0 #278Pace (possessions)63.0 #365
Shooting
54.1 #64Effective FG%56.4 #17
36.1 #553-point %35.6 #85
38.8 #1953-point attempt rate43.0 #117
34.1 #205Free throw rate35.1 #176
Possessions
14.1 #25Turnover rate15.1 #75
24.9 #342Offensive rebound rate30.2 #192
11.9 #291Assists per game15.0 #88
Defense
68.5 #41Points allowed66.3 #16
1.02 #46Points allowed per possession1.05 #91
49.4 #79Opponent effective FG%52.6 #245
32.7 #98Opponent 3-point %33.3 #143
15.1 #283Turnovers forced20.3 #17
74.2 #18Defensive rebound rate70.8 #119
4.9 #338Steals per game6.8 #140
2.4 #314Blocks per game1.9 #349
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

UMBC

22-9 in 2025-26 overall · 17-2 in conference · America East Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Howard83–86
  • Wvs Vermont74–59
  • Wvs UMass Lowell91–69
  • Wvs New Hampshire84–69
  • W@ NJIT91–52

A week or more of rest.

Iowa

24-13 in 2025-26 overall · 11-11 in conference · Big Ten Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Illinois59–71
  • Wvs Nebraska77–71
  • Wvs Florida73–72
  • Wvs Clemson67–61
  • Lvs Ohio State69–72

A week or more of rest.