1. NCAAB
  2. Thu, Nov 19
  3. MTST @ HPU
NCAAB · Thu, Nov 19

Montana State Bobcats at High Point Panthers

Qubein Center · at High Point
#162MTSTMontana St
@
#90HPUHigh Point
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
MTSTThis seasonHPU
0-0Record1-0
0-0ATS1-0
0-0O/U0-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects HPU 81–70 · win probability HPU 83%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 150.5
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: HPU has more of the edges

MTST 1, HPU 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
HPUBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: MTST 14.8%, HPU 12.8%. Forced: MTST 15.6%, HPU 21.3%
MTSTSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: MTST 89%, HPU 36%. Transfers in: MTST 2, HPU 8. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Tempo
About 70 possessions: MTST plays 67.9 a game (233rd fastest), HPU 71.7 (47th). Faster games mean more points
HPUSmall
HPU offense vs MTST defense
Offense 64th of 366 against a defense 155th, on the model’s ratings
HPUSmall
MTST offense vs HPU defense
Offense 190th of 366 against a defense 127th, on the model’s ratings
HPUSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: MTST 30.2, HPU 40.8. Allowed: MTST 29.6, HPU 35.5
HPUSmall
Home court
HPU at home. This season: HPU 0-0 at home, MTST 0-0 away
HPUSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: MTST 53.6 and allows 51.6; HPU 54.5 and allows 50.5
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: MTST 27.0%, HPU 31.8%. Defensive: MTST 71.8%, HPU 68.9%
Context
Schedule so far
MTST has played the 278th-hardest schedule, HPU the 288th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Three-pointers
MTST hits 36.1% and allows 34.3%; HPU hits 34.2% and allows 32.6%. Threes are 44.6% and 43.6% of their shots
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—HPU -11.1—
Total—150.5—
Projected score—MTST 69.7 · HPU 80.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadHPU -6.5—
1H total70.4—
1H projected scoreMTST 32 · HPU 38.4—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

High Point has the better starters

Position by position: Montana St 0, High Point 2, even 3
Montana StBetterHigh Point
G J. Miller15.2 pts · 5.6 reb · 2.8 ast Score 82
Even
G J. Rivera-Torres TR15.9 pts · 8.1 reb · 2.9 ast Score 91
G C. Holden8.3 pts · 3.2 reb · 1.7 ast Not ranked
No call
G C. Williams TR12.4 pts · 4.8 reb · 1.2 ast Score 60
G J. Davis9.2 pts · 2.4 reb · 1.1 ast Score 59
Even
G C. Brown TR10.5 pts · 3.7 reb · 4.6 ast Score 64
G S. Amunrud7.3 pts · 2.7 reb · 0.7 ast Score 53
HPUSmall
F I. Garrett TR13.8 pts · 7.2 reb · 2.3 ast Score 79
F C. King12.6 pts · 4.4 reb · 0.9 ast Score 41
HPUBig
F F. Sherman TR10.8 pts · 8.6 reb · 1 ast Score 85
Montana StBetterHigh Point
MTST offense190th of 366 · -5.8
HPUSmall
HPU defense127th of 366 · -2.3
MTST defense155th of 366 · -3.4
HPUSmall
HPU offense64th of 366 · +2.2
Backcourt-0.8 · 4 players
HPUBig
Backcourt+3.4 · 3 players
Frontcourt-0.9 · 1 player
HPUBig
Frontcourt+3.9 · 2 players
Bench-4.0 · 5 players
HPUBig
Bench+4.4 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestMTST betterHPU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Montana St
Guards
J. Miller36 minC. Holden28 minJ. Davis25 minS. Amunrud21 minH. Keene11 minD. Slater7 min · TR
Forwards
C. King29 minJ. Steppe15 minW. Mbatch11 minL. Praytor4 min · TRC. Rutherfurd1 minJ. StewardNew
High Point
Guards
J. Rivera-Torres36 min · TRC. Williams32 min · TRC. Brown27 min · TRC. Martinez22 minL. Campbell15 min · TRS. McDermott2 min · TR
Forwards
I. Garrett29 min · TRF. Sherman26 min · TRF. Brankovic24 min · TRC. Fletcher22 minB. Hausen21 minC. Miller7 min
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
MTSTHPU
Scoring
75.7 #151Points per game86.4 #9
1.12 #107Points per possession1.20 #12
67.9 #233Pace (possessions)71.7 #47
Shooting
53.6 #80Effective FG%54.5 #51
36.1 #523-point %34.2 #161
44.6 #763-point attempt rate43.6 #98
30.2 #303Free throw rate40.8 #50
Possessions
14.8 #53Turnover rate12.8 #5
27.0 #292Offensive rebound rate31.8 #131
10.6 #347Assists per game15.4 #74
Defense
73.5 #144Points allowed72.8 #128
1.08 #158Points allowed per possession1.01 #38
51.6 #193Opponent effective FG%50.5 #126
34.3 #198Opponent 3-point %32.6 #97
15.6 #242Turnovers forced21.3 #8
71.8 #75Defensive rebound rate68.9 #207
6.5 #171Steals per game10.1 #2
2.8 #263Blocks per game3.6 #119
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Montana St

15-14 in 2025-26 overall · 12-7 in conference · Big Sky Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Idaho74–78
  • W@ N Arizona76–65
  • Wvs Sacramento St82–61
  • Wvs Portland St84–69
  • L@ Idaho St76–91

A week or more of rest.

High Point

28-5 in 2025-26 overall · 18-1 in conference · Big South Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Arkansas88–94
  • Wvs Wisconsin83–82
  • Wvs Winthrop91–76
  • Wvs UNC Asheville75–71
  • Wvs Gardner-Webb81–59

A week or more of rest.