1. NCAAB
  2. Thu, Nov 19
  3. LR @ JAX
NCAAB · Thu, Nov 19

Little Rock Trojans at Jacksonville Dolphins

Swisher Gymnasium · at Jacksonville
#222LRLittle Rock
@
#223JAXJacksonville
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
LRThis seasonJAX
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects JAX 74–71 · win probability JAX 59%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 145.1
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: LR has more of the edges

LR 3, JAX 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
LRBig
Three-pointers
LR hits 35.3% and allows 34.4%; JAX hits 31.8% and allows 36.3%. Threes are 31.0% and 37.4% of their shots
JAXBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: LR 31.5%, JAX 31.7%. Defensive: LR 63.4%, JAX 70.9%
Context
Schedule so far
LR has played the 347th-hardest schedule, JAX the 247th. A record against a soft schedule means less
LRSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: LR 18.4%, JAX 17.2%. Forced: LR 18.6%, JAX 15.0%
JAXSmall
Home court
JAX at home. This season: JAX 0-0 at home, LR 0-0 away
LRSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: LR 27.7, JAX 32.8. Allowed: LR 33.1, JAX 42.7
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: LR 49.4 and allows 51.8; JAX 50.0 and allows 54.8
Context
Tempo
About 67 possessions: LR plays 67.6 a game (248th fastest), JAX 65.7 (322nd). Faster games mean more points
Even
LR offense vs JAX defense
Offense 238th of 366 against a defense 210th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: LR 12%, JAX 27%. Transfers in: LR 8, JAX 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
JAX offense vs LR defense
Offense 232nd of 366 against a defense 208th, on the model’s ratings
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—JAX -2.7—
Total—145.1—
Projected score—LR 71.2 · JAX 73.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadJAX -1.5—
1H total67.9—
1H projected scoreLR 33.2 · JAX 34.7—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

The starting fives are even

Position by position: Little Rock 1, Jacksonville 1, even 3
Little RockBetterJacksonville
G A. Clark TR15.3 pts · 3.4 reb · 2.7 ast Score 62
Even
G C. Williams TR16.1 pts · 3.6 reb · 3.2 ast Score 65
G J. King TR14 pts · 3 reb · 1.6 ast Score 46
Even
G J. Phillips TR15.5 pts · 5 reb · 2.5 ast Score 59
G T. Walters TR8.3 pts · 5.4 reb · 0.6 ast Score 37
JAXSmall
G H. Wood11.6 pts · 3.2 reb · 1.2 ast Score 64
F B. Hubbard TR16.1 pts · 4.6 reb · 1.4 ast Score 80
LRBig
G E. Sterck6.5 pts · 2.1 reb · 2.9 ast Score 23
F T. Burgess7.4 pts · 3 reb · 1.2 ast Not ranked
No call
F J. Morrow TR7.8 pts · 3.2 reb · 1.1 ast Score 58
Little RockBetterJacksonville
LR offense238th of 366 · -7.3
Even
JAX defense210th of 366 · -5.4
LR defense208th of 366 · -5.2
Even
JAX offense232nd of 366 · -7.1
Backcourt-2.3 · 3 players
Even
Backcourt-1.9 · 4 players
Frontcourt+0.9 · 2 players
LRSmall
Frontcourt-0.2 · 1 player
Bench-2.3 · 4 players
JAXSmall
Bench-1.1 · 4 players
Score, worst to bestLR betterJAX betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Little Rock
Guards
A. Clark33 min · TRJ. King32 min · TRT. Walters28 min · TRA. Economou6 min · TRT. LaceyNewJ. LynNew
Forwards
B. Hubbard29 min · TRT. Burgess24 minP. Amadou Kante14 min · TRA. Bamisile14 min · TRJ. Felt13 min · TRR. OselkaNew
Jacksonville
Guards
C. Williams33 min · TRJ. Phillips31 min · TRH. Wood28 minE. Sterck25 minR. Loux1 minL. BuckinghamNew
Forwards
J. Morrow21 min · TRR. Stirling15 min · TRN. Turner6 min · TRJ. Newell2 min · TR
Centers
S. MbingazoNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
LRJAX
Scoring
68.9 #300Points per game69.5 #293
1.02 #306Points per possession1.06 #237
67.6 #248Pace (possessions)65.7 #322
Shooting
49.4 #273Effective FG%50.0 #232
35.3 #963-point %31.8 #289
31.0 #3393-point attempt rate37.4 #223
27.7 #345Free throw rate32.8 #242
Possessions
18.4 #292Turnover rate17.2 #222
31.5 #143Offensive rebound rate31.7 #137
13.4 #183Assists per game11.1 #335
Defense
74.2 #160Points allowed75.2 #194
1.10 #217Points allowed per possession1.14 #313
51.8 #199Opponent effective FG%54.8 #325
34.4 #211Opponent 3-point %36.3 #318
18.6 #71Turnovers forced15.0 #290
63.4 #357Defensive rebound rate70.9 #115
7.5 #77Steals per game6.3 #206
4.4 #45Blocks per game2.8 #261
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Little Rock

10-20 in 2025-26 overall · 9-12 in conference · United Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Lindenwood Lions62–72
  • Wvs Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles89–70
  • Lvs Morehead St70–76
  • Lvs SE Missouri65–70
  • Wvs UT Martin67–65

A week or more of rest.

Jacksonville

10-20 in 2025-26 overall · 7-12 in conference · Atlantic Sun Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Bellarmine79–82
  • W@ North Florida85–61
  • Wvs Stetson89–85
  • Lvs Austin Peay61–65
  • L@ FGCU84–86

A week or more of rest.