1. NCAAB
  2. Thu, Nov 19
  3. ME @ QUIN
NCAAB · Thu, Nov 19

Maine Black Bears at Quinnipiac Bobcats

M&T Bank Arena · at Quinnipiac
#323MEMaine
@
#241QUINQuinnipiac
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
METhis seasonQUIN
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects QUIN 74–64 · win probability QUIN 80%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 138.3
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: QUIN has more of the edges

ME 2, QUIN 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
QUINBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: ME 19.7%, QUIN 34.1%. Defensive: ME 65.7%, QUIN 68.0%
QUINBig
ME offense vs QUIN defense
Offense 357th of 366 against a defense 232nd, on the model’s ratings
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: ME plays 64.9 a game (348th fastest), QUIN 70.3 (100th). Faster games mean more points
QUINSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: ME 19.2%, QUIN 15.8%. Forced: ME 19.3%, QUIN 17.4%
MESmall
QUIN offense vs ME defense
Offense 243rd of 366 against a defense 191st, on the model’s ratings
QUINSmall
Home court
QUIN at home. This season: QUIN 0-0 at home, ME 0-0 away
MESmall
Three-pointers
ME hits 31.2% and allows 29.4%; QUIN hits 34.0% and allows 34.9%. Threes are 37.0% and 33.7% of their shots
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: ME 38.4, QUIN 33.8. Allowed: ME 33.9, QUIN 30.6
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: ME 49.6 and allows 50.6; QUIN 48.1 and allows 48.9
Context
Schedule so far
ME has played the 319th-hardest schedule, QUIN the 324th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: ME 31%, QUIN 31%. Transfers in: ME 4, QUIN 2. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—QUIN -9.6—
Total—138.3—
Projected score—ME 64.3 · QUIN 73.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadQUIN -5.6—
1H total64.7—
1H projected scoreME 29.6 · QUIN 35.2—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Quinnipiac has the better starters

Position by position: Maine 2, Quinnipiac 3, even 0
MaineBetterQuinnipiac
G D. Williams TR8 pts · 3.1 reb · 1.7 ast Score 23
MESmall
G N. Guerengomba2.6 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.6 ast Score 4
G C. Crawford4.2 pts · 1.1 reb · 1.8 ast Score 14
QUINSmall
G T. Turnage3.4 pts · 1.1 reb · 1.8 ast Score 36
G V. Garcia Adsten TR3.5 pts · 3.8 reb · 1.3 ast Score 11
QUINBig
F K. McKnight10.7 pts · 5.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 79
F A. Flagg6.7 pts · 4.1 reb · 1.4 ast Score 33
MESmall
F H. Pierre-Louis TR3.1 pts · 2.5 reb · 1 ast Score 1
F Y. Bamba2.8 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.4 ast Score 11
QUINSmall
F N. Hart TR2.2 pts · 3.1 reb · 0 ast Score 27
MaineBetterQuinnipiac
ME offense357th of 366 · -13.7
QUINSmall
QUIN defense232nd of 366 · -6.2
ME defense191st of 366 · -4.5
Even
QUIN offense243rd of 366 · -7.3
Backcourt-6.4 · 3 players
QUINBig
Backcourt-2.7 · 2 players
Frontcourt-2.3 · 2 players
Even
Frontcourt-1.8 · 3 players
Bench-0.7 · 4 players
Even
Bench-0.6 · 3 players
Score, worst to bestME betterQUIN betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Maine
Guards
D. Williams25 min · TRC. Crawford20 minV. Garcia Adsten18 min · TRD. LopesNewK. BedardNewH. FranzNew
Forwards
A. Flagg25 minY. Bamba12 minA. Evans8 min · TRK. Gribben3 minE. Byther2 minO. Faubert2 min · TR
Quinnipiac
Guards
N. Guerengomba14 minT. Turnage12 minM. ParrottaNewT. Cunningham-PembertonNewL. SekasiNewM. FieldsNew
Forwards
K. McKnight25 minH. Pierre-Louis15 min · TRN. Hart11 min · TRB. Ritvo7 minA. Akinniyi2 minC. Skenderi2 min
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
MEQUIN
Scoring
61.2 #364Points per game74.2 #190
0.95 #356Points per possession1.05 #246
64.9 #348Pace (possessions)70.3 #100
Shooting
49.6 #263Effective FG%48.1 #310
31.2 #3143-point %34.0 #171
37.0 #2313-point attempt rate33.7 #304
38.4 #93Free throw rate33.8 #217
Possessions
19.2 #328Turnover rate15.8 #125
19.7 #364Offensive rebound rate34.1 #65
11.8 #300Assists per game13.0 #211
Defense
68.5 #39Points allowed72.6 #121
1.05 #90Points allowed per possession1.04 #68
50.6 #136Opponent effective FG%48.9 #65
29.4 #4Opponent 3-point %34.9 #242
19.3 #38Turnovers forced17.4 #122
65.7 #322Defensive rebound rate68.0 #253
7.7 #57Steals per game7.8 #55
3.2 #194Blocks per game4.5 #37
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Maine

7-24 in 2025-26 overall · 6-11 in conference · America East Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ NJIT58–60
  • Lvs UMass Lowell56–67
  • L@ Binghamton67–74
  • W@ UAlbany70–59
  • W@ New Hampshire61–58

A week or more of rest.

Quinnipiac

18-13 in 2025-26 overall · 12-9 in conference · Metro Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Marist75–77
  • W@ Canisius67–63
  • L@ Niagara76–78
  • Lvs Fairfield79–85
  • Lvs Merrimack49–56

A week or more of rest.