Niagara Purple Eagles at Delaware State Hornets: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 20, 12:00 AM ETMemorial Hall (DE) · at Delaware St

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Niagara and Delaware St
NIA	This season	DSU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects NIA 68–67 · win probability NIA 52%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 134.9

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: DSU has more of the edges

NIA 2, DSU 5 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

NIASmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: NIA 50.5 and allows 52.8; DSU 42.9 and allows 52.9

NIASmall

DSU offense vs NIA defense

Offense 354th of 366 against a defense 278th, on the model’s ratings

DSUSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: NIA 18.9%, DSU 19.8%. Forced: NIA 16.6%, DSU 19.6%

DSUSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: NIA 24.8%, DSU 27.7%. Defensive: NIA 67.1%, DSU 68.0%

DSUSmall

Home court

DSU at home. This season: DSU 0-0 at home, NIA 0-0 away

DSUSmall

NIA offense vs DSU defense

Offense 355th of 366 against a defense 307th, on the model’s ratings

DSUSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: NIA 15%, DSU 41%. Transfers in: NIA 5, DSU 1. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Context

Tempo

About 65 possessions: NIA plays 63.4 a game (364th fastest), DSU 66.7 (290th). Faster games mean more points

Context

Schedule so far

NIA has played the 334th-hardest schedule, DSU the 354th. A record against a soft schedule means less

Even

Three-pointers

NIA hits 33.7% and allows 35.3%; DSU hits 28.4% and allows 33.0%. Threes are 40.5% and 28.9% of their shots

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: NIA 26.6, DSU 34.1. Allowed: NIA 33.8, DSU 40.5

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	NIA -0.4	—
Total	—	134.9	—
Projected score	—	NIA 67.7 · DSU 67.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	NIA -0.4	—
1H total	63.2	—
1H projected score	NIA 31.8 · DSU 31.4	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NIA WLLWW	13-16	45%	6-10	—
DSU LLWWL	9-18	33%	4-5	—

Venue/role: NIA away; DSU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
NIA OOUOO	14-15	48%	7-22
DSU UUUOU	8-19	30%	5-22

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NIA	3-7 30%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
DSU	2-8 20%	2-8 20%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Niagara

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 27	@ LAF	L47–59LU
Nov 28	vs LEM	L68–74LO
Nov 29	vs ME	No recent meeting

Delaware St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 24	@ UTC	No recent meeting
Nov 28	@ NCAT	No recent meeting
Dec 1	vs NHVN	L52–65LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

NIA 1–0 DSUNIA leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · NIA 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 10, 2025-26	DSU 57 @ NIA 68	NIA -5.5	NIA W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Niagara

29 games played

Straight up

7-22

24% wins

Against the spread

13-16

45% covers · avg −0.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-15

48% overs · avg −0.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

7-2224%

L W W L L L L L L L L W L L L W L L L L L W L L W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

13-1645%

L W W L L L L L L L W W L L L W L W W W L W W L W L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

14-1548%

O U U O U O U O U O U U O U O U U U O O U U U O O O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@DUQ	L 63-83	+17.5	L −2.5	139.5	O 146
Nov 8	@BING	W 67-59	+2.5	W +10.5	138.5	U 126
Nov 10	vsDSU	W 68-57	-5.5	W +5.5	137.5	U 125
Nov 17	@LEM	L 68-74	+2.5	L −3.5	138.5	O 142
Nov 21	@DUKE	L 42-100	+39.5	L −18.5	146.5	U 142
Nov 22	vsHOW	L 70-80	+4.5	L −5.5	138.5	O 150
Nov 29	vsDETM	L 66-70	+1.5	L −2.5	142.5	U 136
Dec 5	@SIE	L 54-83	+12.5	L −16.5	129.5	O 137
Dec 7	@SPU	L 43-71	+5.5	L −22.5	131.5	U 114
Dec 13	@MORG	L 73-81	+1.5	L −6.5	140.5	O 154
Dec 15	@VCU	L 58-84	+30.5	W +4.5	143.5	U 142
Jan 2	vsSHU	W 64-61	+1.5	W +4.5	139.5	U 125
Jan 4	vsFAIR	L 75-83	+3.5	L −4.5	138.5	O 158
Jan 9	@IONA	L 53-71	+10.5	L −7.5	140.5	U 124
Jan 11	@MAN	L 70-79	+5.5	L −3.5	140.5	O 149
Jan 14	@CAN	W 59-54	+2.5	W +7.5	126.5	U 113
Jan 19	vsMSM	L 58-68	+3.5	L −6.5	131.5	U 126
Jan 22	@FAIR	L 61-62	+10.5	W +9.5	139.5	U 123
Jan 24	@SHU	L 70-71	+9.5	W +8.5	139.5	O 141
Jan 30	vsSIE	L 79-82	+9.5	W +6.5	128.5	O 161
Feb 1	vsMRST	L 46-58	+9.5	L −2.5	128.5	U 104
Feb 3	vsCAN	W 65-56	-2.5	W +6.5	129.5	U 121
Feb 7	@QUIN	L 55-56	+12.5	W +11.5	137.5	U 111
Feb 13	vsMAN	L 69-76	+2.5	L −4.5	136.5	O 145
Feb 15	vsIONA	W 70-68	+3.5	W +5.5	132.5	O 138
Feb 20	@MSM	L 63-76	+7.5	L −5.5	130.5	O 139
Feb 22	@RID	L 62-67	-1.5	L −6.5	131.5	U 129
Feb 27	vsQUIN	W 78-76	+8.5	W +10.5	136.5	O 154
Mar 1	vsMRMK	L 66-73	+7.5	W +0.5	126.5	O 139

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DUQ

L 63-83

−2.5

BING

W 67-59

+10.5

DSU

W 68-57

+5.5

LEM

L 68-74

−3.5

DUKE

L 42-100

−18.5

HOW

L 70-80

−5.5

DETM

L 66-70

−2.5

SIE

L 54-83

−16.5

SPU

L 43-71

−22.5

MORG

L 73-81

−6.5

VCU

L 58-84

+4.5

SHU

W 64-61

+4.5

FAIR

L 75-83

−4.5

IONA

L 53-71

−7.5

MAN

L 70-79

−3.5

CAN

W 59-54

+7.5

MSM

L 58-68

−6.5

FAIR

L 61-62

+9.5

SHU

L 70-71

+8.5

SIE

L 79-82

+6.5

MRST

L 46-58

−2.5

CAN

W 65-56

+6.5

QUIN

L 55-56

+11.5

MAN

L 69-76

−4.5

IONA

W 70-68

+5.5

MSM

L 63-76

−5.5

RID

L 62-67

−6.5

QUIN

W 78-76

+10.5

MRMK

L 66-73

+0.5

covered 13didn’t cover 16avg −0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DUQ

L 63-83

+6.5

BING

W 67-59

−12.5

DSU

W 68-57

−12.5

LEM

L 68-74

+3.5

DUKE

L 42-100

−4.5

HOW

L 70-80

+11.5

DETM

L 66-70

−6.5

SIE

L 54-83

+7.5

SPU

L 43-71

−17.5

MORG

L 73-81

+13.5

VCU

L 58-84

−1.5

SHU

W 64-61

−14.5

FAIR

L 75-83

+19.5

IONA

L 53-71

−16.5

MAN

L 70-79

+8.5

CAN

W 59-54

−13.5

MSM

L 58-68

−5.5

FAIR

L 61-62

−16.5

SHU

L 70-71

+1.5

SIE

L 79-82

+32.5

MRST

L 46-58

−24.5

CAN

W 65-56

−8.5

QUIN

L 55-56

−26.5

MAN

L 69-76

+8.5

IONA

W 70-68

+5.5

MSM

L 63-76

+8.5

RID

L 62-67

−2.5

QUIN

W 78-76

+17.5

MRMK

L 66-73

+12.5

over 14under 15avg −0.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Delaware St

27 games played

Straight up

5-22

19% wins

Against the spread

9-18

33% covers · avg −3.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

8-19

30% overs · avg −5.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

5-2219%

L L L L L L L W W L L L L L L L W L L L L L L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

9-1833%

L L L L L L W W W W W L W L L L W L L L L L L L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

8-1930%

U U U U U U U O O U U U U O O U U U O U O O U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	@TEM	L 65-83	+16.5	L −1.5	154.5	U 148
Nov 8	@SYR	L 43-83	+26.5	L −13.5	157.5	U 126
Nov 10	@NIA	L 57-68	+5.5	L −5.5	137.5	U 125
Nov 15	@NHVN	L 52-65	+1.5	L −11.5	130.5	U 117
Nov 23	@MIA	L 41-97	+34.5	L −21.5	151.5	U 138
Nov 29	@UMBC	L 57-71	+13.5	L −0.5	138.5	U 128
Dec 3	vsNAVY	L 59-66	+15.5	W +8.5	132.5	U 125
Dec 6	vsDEL	W 75-72	+7.5	W +10.5	129.5	O 147
Dec 13	@LONG	W 81-76	+13.5	W +18.5	139.5	O 157
Dec 18	@JOES	L 51-67	+17.5	W +1.5	137.5	U 118
Dec 29	@RUTG	L 50-65	+20.5	W +5.5	135.5	U 115
Jan 3	vsCOPP	L 51-53	-8.5	L −10.5	139.5	U 104
Jan 10	vsNORF	L 64-66	+4.5	W +2.5	132.5	U 130
Jan 12	@HOW	L 58-84	+8.5	L −17.5	129.5	O 142
Jan 17	vsMORG	L 79-80	-3.5	L −4.5	136.5	O 159
Jan 26	@SCST	L 64-70	+1.5	L −4.5	135.5	U 134
Jan 31	vsUMES	W 65-57	+2.5	W +10.5	128.5	U 122
Feb 7	@COPP	L 47-65	-1.5	L −19.5	132.5	U 112
Feb 9	@NCCU	L 63-72	+7.5	L −1.5	134.5	O 135
Feb 14	@NORF	L 58-75	+9.5	L −7.5	134.5	U 133
Feb 16	vsHOW	L 59-91	+11.5	L −20.5	131.5	O 150
Feb 21	@MORG	L 68-82	+5.5	L −8.5	143.5	O 150
Feb 28	vsNCCU	L 60-74	+2.5	L −11.5	135.5	U 134
Mar 2	vsSCST	L 59-61	-3.5	L −5.5	134.5	U 120
Mar 5	@UMES	W 57-56	+5.5	W +6.5	124.5	U 113
Mar 11	vsMORG	W 75-70	+3.5	W +8.5	142.5	O 145
Mar 13	vsNCCU	L 53-59	+3.5	L −2.5	131.5	U 112

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TEM

L 65-83

−1.5

SYR

L 43-83

−13.5

NIA

L 57-68

−5.5

NHVN

L 52-65

−11.5

MIA

L 41-97

−21.5

UMBC

L 57-71

−0.5

NAVY

L 59-66

+8.5

DEL

W 75-72

+10.5

LONG

W 81-76

+18.5

JOES

L 51-67

+1.5

RUTG

L 50-65

+5.5

COPP

L 51-53

−10.5

NORF

L 64-66

+2.5

HOW

L 58-84

−17.5

MORG

L 79-80

−4.5

SCST

L 64-70

−4.5

UMES

W 65-57

+10.5

COPP

L 47-65

−19.5

NCCU

L 63-72

−1.5

NORF

L 58-75

−7.5

HOW

L 59-91

−20.5

MORG

L 68-82

−8.5

NCCU

L 60-74

−11.5

SCST

L 59-61

−5.5

UMES

W 57-56

+6.5

MORG

W 75-70

+8.5

NCCU

L 53-59

−2.5

covered 9didn’t cover 18avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TEM

L 65-83

−6.5

SYR

L 43-83

−31.5

NIA

L 57-68

−12.5

NHVN

L 52-65

−13.5

MIA

L 41-97

−13.5

UMBC

L 57-71

−10.5

NAVY

L 59-66

−7.5

DEL

W 75-72

+17.5

LONG

W 81-76

+17.5

JOES

L 51-67

−19.5

RUTG

L 50-65

−20.5

COPP

L 51-53

−35.5

NORF

L 64-66

−2.5

HOW

L 58-84

+12.5

MORG

L 79-80

+22.5

SCST

L 64-70

−1.5

UMES

W 65-57

−6.5

COPP

L 47-65

−20.5

NCCU

L 63-72

+0.5

NORF

L 58-75

−1.5

HOW

L 59-91

+18.5

MORG

L 68-82

+6.5

NCCU

L 60-74

−1.5

SCST

L 59-61

−14.5

UMES

W 57-56

−11.5

MORG

W 75-70

+2.5

NCCU

L 53-59

−19.5

over 8under 19avg −5.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Delaware St has the better starters

Position by position: Niagara 1, Delaware St 2, even 2

NiagaraBetterDelaware St

G T. Walters7.2 pts · 1.6 reb · 2.7 ast Score 27

Even

G R. Moore6.5 pts · 2.8 reb · 1 ast Score 33

G C. Farrell TR6 pts · 2.2 reb · 1.2 ast Score 11

DSUSmall

G N. Muhammad TR7.3 pts · 1.7 reb · 1.8 ast Score 35

G L. Woods TR4.9 pts · 1.8 reb · 1.4 ast Score 15

Even

G J. St Clair3.7 pts · 0.9 reb · 1 ast Score 14

G B. Rieber TR3.9 pts · 1.2 reb · 1.5 ast Score 7

DSUBig

G D. Shepherd4.7 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.5 ast Score 58

G T. Blackshear TR6.3 pts · 1.4 reb · 0.7 ast Score 43

NIASmall

F A. Santos6.4 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.4 ast Score 20

NiagaraBetterDelaware St

NIA offense355th of 366 · -13.3

Even

DSU defense307th of 366 · -7.9

NIA defense278th of 366 · -7.0

NIASmall

DSU offense354th of 366 · -13.2

Backcourt-8.7 · 5 players

DSUBig

Backcourt-4.0 · 4 players

FrontcourtNo numbers yet

No call

Frontcourt-1.5 · 1 player

Bench-1.5 · 2 players

Even

Bench-2.0 · 1 player

Score, worst to bestNIA betterDSU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Niagara

Guards

T. Walters22 minC. Farrell21 min · TRL. Woods18 min · TRB. Rieber16 min · TRT. Blackshear14 min · TRG. Dalmau7 min

Forwards

V. Todorovic10 min · TRN. SlingerlandNewF. RottaNewB. AngelettiNewD. EmokhareNew

Delaware St

Guards

R. Moore22 minN. Muhammad18 min · TRJ. St Clair15 minD. Shepherd13 minN. ReedusNewI. SullivanNew

Forwards

A. Santos20 minM. Adamu13 minT. HawkinsNewG. EkukwaiNewJ. ObioraNewF. MuntariNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

NIA63.3 #355

DSU59.7 #365

Points per possession

NIA1.00 #330

DSU0.89 #365

Pace (possessions)

NIA63.4 #364

DSU66.7 #290

Shooting

Effective FG%

NIA50.5 #214

DSU42.9 #364

3-point %

NIA33.7 #188

DSU28.4 #361

3-point attempt rate

NIA40.5 #159

DSU28.9 #357

Free throw rate

NIA26.6 #353

DSU34.1 #204

Possessions

Turnover rate

NIA18.9 #318

DSU19.8 #346

Offensive rebound rate

NIA24.8 #344

DSU27.7 #277

Assists per game

NIA13.8 #162

DSU9.7 #361

Defense

Points allowed

NIA71.7 #98

DSU71.4 #89

Points allowed per possession

NIA1.13 #300

DSU1.07 #143

Opponent effective FG%

NIA52.8 #260

DSU52.9 #265

Opponent 3-point %

NIA35.3 #268

DSU33.0 #123

Turnovers forced

NIA16.6 #177

DSU19.6 #32

Defensive rebound rate

NIA67.1 #297

DSU68.0 #257

Steals per game

NIA5.6 #284

DSU7.6 #73

Blocks per game

NIA2.8 #254

DSU1.8 #353

NIA		DSU
Scoring
63.3 #355	Points per game	59.7 #365
1.00 #330	Points per possession	0.89 #365
63.4 #364	Pace (possessions)	66.7 #290
Shooting
50.5 #214	Effective FG%	42.9 #364
33.7 #188	3-point %	28.4 #361
40.5 #159	3-point attempt rate	28.9 #357
26.6 #353	Free throw rate	34.1 #204
Possessions
18.9 #318	Turnover rate	19.8 #346
24.8 #344	Offensive rebound rate	27.7 #277
13.8 #162	Assists per game	9.7 #361
Defense
71.7 #98	Points allowed	71.4 #89
1.13 #300	Points allowed per possession	1.07 #143
52.8 #260	Opponent effective FG%	52.9 #265
35.3 #268	Opponent 3-point %	33.0 #123
16.6 #177	Turnovers forced	19.6 #32
67.1 #297	Defensive rebound rate	68.0 #257
5.6 #284	Steals per game	7.6 #73
2.8 #254	Blocks per game	1.8 #353

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Niagara

7-22 in 2025-26 overall · 5-15 in conference · Metro Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Merrimack66–73
Wvs Quinnipiac78–76
L@ Rider62–67
L@ Mount St Marys63–76
Wvs Iona70–68

A week or more of rest.

Delaware St

5-22 in 2025-26 overall · 3-13 in conference · Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs NC Central53–59
Wvs Morgan St75–70
W@ MD Eastern57–56
Lvs SC State59–61
Lvs NC Central60–74

A week or more of rest.

Niagara Purple Eagles at Delaware State Hornets

What could decide it: DSU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Niagara

Delaware St

Delaware St has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Niagara

Delaware St