Lipscomb Bisons at Alabama A&M Bulldogs: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 20, 12:00 AM ETEvent Center · at Alabama A&M

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Lipscomb and Alabama A&M
LIP	This season	AAMU
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects LIP 76–71 · win probability LIP 66%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 147.0

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: LIP has more of the edges

LIP 5, AAMU 2 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

LIPBig

LIP offense vs AAMU defense

Offense 191st of 366 against a defense 305th, on the model’s ratings

LIPSmall

AAMU offense vs LIP defense

Offense 325th of 366 against a defense 226th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

LIP has played the 267th-hardest schedule, AAMU the 363rd. A record against a soft schedule means less

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: LIP plays 70.8 a game (83rd fastest), AAMU 67.6 (250th). Faster games mean more points

LIPSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: LIP 54.1 and allows 53.2; AAMU 49.2 and allows 52.1

AAMUSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: LIP 26.0, AAMU 45.4. Allowed: LIP 29.0, AAMU 38.6

LIPSmall

Three-pointers

LIP hits 35.7% and allows 34.3%; AAMU hits 35.0% and allows 35.4%. Threes are 47.9% and 34.0% of their shots

AAMUSmall

Home court

AAMU at home. This season: AAMU 0-0 at home, LIP 0-0 away

LIPSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: LIP 16.0%, AAMU 16.5%. Forced: LIP 17.7%, AAMU 16.6%

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: LIP 25.8%, AAMU 27.4%. Defensive: LIP 69.8%, AAMU 70.5%

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: LIP 44%, AAMU 51%. Transfers in: LIP 2, AAMU 2. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	LIP -4.8	—
Total	—	147.0	—
Projected score	—	LIP 75.9 · AAMU 71.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	LIP -3.0	—
1H total	68.8	—
1H projected score	LIP 35.9 · AAMU 32.9	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LIP LWLWL	14-16	47%	7-10	—
AAMU LWLWL	16-14	53%	8-6	—

Venue/role: LIP away; AAMU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
LIP UUOUU	16-14	53%	17-13
AAMU OUOOU	15-15	50%	15-15

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LIP	5-5 50%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%
AAMU	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Lipscomb

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 24	@ AUB	No recent meeting
Nov 29	@ OSU	No recent meeting
Dec 2	vs UNCA	L64–69WU

Alabama A&M

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 24	@ UNA	W68–60WU
Dec 1	@ UTC	L66–73LO
Dec 7	@ MSST	No recent meeting

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

LIP 4–1 AAMULIP leads · 5 games since 2021-22 · LIP has won the last 3 meetings · LIP 3-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 7, 2025-26	AAMU 58 @ LIP 92	LIP -11.5	LIP W
Nov 30, 2024-25	LIP 82 @ AAMU 44	AAMU +11.5	LIP W
Nov 18, 2023-24	AAMU 81 @ LIP 106	LIP -12.5	LIP W
Dec 9, 2022-23	LIP 59 @ AAMU 63	AAMU +9.5	AAMU W
Dec 30, 2021-22	AAMU 63 @ LIP 66	LIP -9	AAMU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Lipscomb

30 games played

Straight up

17-13

57% wins

Against the spread

14-16

47% covers · avg −0.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

16-14

53% overs · avg −0.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

17-1357%

L L L L W W W W W L L W W L W W W W W L W L L W L W W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

14-1647%

L L W W W W W L W W L W L L W L W L W L L L L W L L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

16-1453%

O O U U U U O O O O O U U O O U O U O U O O O U O U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@VAN	L 61-105	+26.5	L −17.5	154.5	O 166
Nov 9	@MER	L 77-92	+3.5	L −11.5	157.5	O 169
Nov 11	@UNCA	L 64-69	+6.5	W +1.5	158.5	U 133
Nov 19	@BEL	L 68-75	+12.5	W +5.5	158.5	U 143
Nov 22	vsWCU	W 83-62	-5.5	W +15.5	151.5	U 145
Nov 26	@MRSH	W 90-67	+7.5	W +30.5	157.5	U 157
Nov 29	@SEMO	W 88-77	+3.5	W +14.5	153.5	O 165
Dec 3	vsTNTC	W 83-80	-10.5	L −7.5	152.5	O 163
Dec 7	vsAAMU	W 92-58	-11.5	W +22.5	146.5	O 150
Dec 16	@DUKE	L 73-97	+32.5	W +8.5	151.5	O 170
Dec 29	@CIN	L 62-89	+13.5	L −13.5	150.5	O 151
Jan 1	vsJAX	W 76-57	-12.5	W +6.5	147.5	U 133
Jan 3	vsUNF	W 82-74	-18.5	L −10.5	172.5	U 156
Jan 8	@STET	L 83-91	-11.5	L −19.5	150.5	O 174
Jan 10	@FGCU	W 84-77	+2.5	W +9.5	157.5	O 161
Jan 15	vsBELL	W 81-71	-11.5	L −1.5	154.5	U 152
Jan 17	vsAPSU	W 82-78	-2.5	W +1.5	155.5	O 160
Jan 22	vsSTET	W 79-74	-15.5	L −10.5	157.5	U 153
Jan 23	vsFGCU	W 86-71	-5.5	W +9.5	153.5	O 157
Jan 29	@JAX	L 65-70	-3.5	L −8.5	142.5	U 135
Jan 31	@UNF	W 100-94	-10.5	L −4.5	165.5	O 194
Feb 4	@APSU	L 76-87	+4.5	L −6.5	156.5	O 163
Feb 7	vsCARK	L 78-86	-3.5	L −11.5	155.5	O 164
Feb 11	vsEKU	W 75-61	-6.5	W +7.5	160.5	U 136
Feb 14	@QUC	L 81-87	+3.5	L −2.5	165.5	O 168
Feb 18	@BELL	W 75-72	-3.5	L −0.5	154.5	U 147
Feb 21	vsUNA	W 73-51	-12.5	W +9.5	149.5	U 124
Feb 25	@WGA	L 78-84	-5.5	L −11.5	153.5	O 162
Feb 28	@EKU	W 80-77	-1.5	W +1.5	157.5	U 157
Mar 6	vsFGCU	L 53-77	-3.5	L −27.5	150.5	U 130

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

VAN

L 61-105

−17.5

MER

L 77-92

−11.5

UNCA

L 64-69

+1.5

BEL

L 68-75

+5.5

WCU

W 83-62

+15.5

MRSH

W 90-67

+30.5

SEMO

W 88-77

+14.5

TNTC

W 83-80

−7.5

AAMU

W 92-58

+22.5

DUKE

L 73-97

+8.5

CIN

L 62-89

−13.5

JAX

W 76-57

+6.5

UNF

W 82-74

−10.5

STET

L 83-91

−19.5

FGCU

W 84-77

+9.5

BELL

W 81-71

−1.5

APSU

W 82-78

+1.5

STET

W 79-74

−10.5

FGCU

W 86-71

+9.5

JAX

L 65-70

−8.5

UNF

W 100-94

−4.5

APSU

L 76-87

−6.5

CARK

L 78-86

−11.5

EKU

W 75-61

+7.5

QUC

L 81-87

−2.5

BELL

W 75-72

−0.5

UNA

W 73-51

+9.5

WGA

L 78-84

−11.5

EKU

W 80-77

+1.5

FGCU

L 53-77

−27.5

covered 14didn’t cover 16avg −0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

VAN

L 61-105

+11.5

MER

L 77-92

+11.5

UNCA

L 64-69

−25.5

BEL

L 68-75

−15.5

WCU

W 83-62

−6.5

MRSH

W 90-67

−0.5

SEMO

W 88-77

+11.5

TNTC

W 83-80

+10.5

AAMU

W 92-58

+3.5

DUKE

L 73-97

+18.5

CIN

L 62-89

+0.5

JAX

W 76-57

−14.5

UNF

W 82-74

−16.5

STET

L 83-91

+23.5

FGCU

W 84-77

+3.5

BELL

W 81-71

−2.5

APSU

W 82-78

+4.5

STET

W 79-74

−4.5

FGCU

W 86-71

+3.5

JAX

L 65-70

−7.5

UNF

W 100-94

+28.5

APSU

L 76-87

+6.5

CARK

L 78-86

+8.5

EKU

W 75-61

−24.5

QUC

L 81-87

+2.5

BELL

W 75-72

−7.5

UNA

W 73-51

−25.5

WGA

L 78-84

+8.5

EKU

W 80-77

−0.5

FGCU

L 53-77

−20.5

over 16under 14avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Alabama A&M

30 games played

Straight up

15-15

50% wins

Against the spread

16-14

53% covers · avg −0.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-15

50% overs · avg +2.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

15-1550%

L W W L L W L W L L L W L W W L W W L L W W W W L L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

16-1453%

L W W L W W L W W L L W L W W L W W L L W L W W L L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

15-1550%

O U U O U U O U O O O U U O U O U U O O U U O U O O U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	@IU	L 51-98	+30.5	L −16.5	147.5	O 149
Nov 13	vsCHSO	W 68-64	-1.5	W +2.5	152.5	U 132
Nov 16	vsLIN	W 74-65	-3.5	W +5.5	149.5	U 139
Nov 28	@CLEM	L 56-92	+27.5	L −8.5	141.5	O 148
Nov 30	@CCU	L 60-67	+7.5	W +0.5	140.5	U 127
Dec 3	vsTNST	W 80-53	+4.5	W +31.5	147.5	U 133
Dec 7	@LIP	L 58-92	+11.5	L −22.5	146.5	O 150
Dec 15	vsUNA	W 68-60	+4.5	W +12.5	140.5	U 128
Dec 17	vsMISS	L 66-80	+20.5	W +6.5	135.5	O 146
Dec 21	vsUTC	L 66-73	+2.5	L −4.5	138.5	O 139
Jan 3	@UAPB	L 83-95	-1.5	L −13.5	149.5	O 178
Jan 5	@MVSU	W 71-51	-10.5	W +9.5	135.5	U 122
Jan 10	vsALCN	L 62-64	-9.5	L −11.5	140.5	U 126
Jan 12	vsJKST	W 100-91	-6.5	W +2.5	140.5	O 191
Jan 19	vsALST	W 73-69	+1.5	W +5.5	146.5	U 142
Jan 24	@TXSO	L 74-89	-1.5	L −16.5	145.5	O 163
Jan 27	@PV	W 80-60	+2.5	W +22.5	152.5	U 140
Jan 31	vsFAMU	W 72-65	-3.5	W +3.5	138.5	U 137
Feb 2	vsBCU	L 62-80	+2.5	L −15.5	141.5	O 142
Feb 7	@SOU	L 68-81	+6.5	L −6.5	143.5	O 149
Feb 9	@GRAM	W 66-58	+4.5	W +12.5	136.5	U 124
Feb 14	vsMVSU	W 72-65	-15.5	L −8.5	138.5	U 137
Feb 16	vsUAPB	W 82-70	-3.5	W +8.5	144.5	O 152
Feb 19	@FAMU	W 63-61	+1.5	W +3.5	139.5	U 124
Feb 21	@BCU	L 76-85	+6.5	L −2.5	142.5	O 161
Feb 28	vsALST	L 88-89	-1.5	L −2.5	143.5	O 177
Mar 3	vsGRAM	W 77-63	-2.5	W +11.5	140.5	U 140
Mar 5	vsSOU	L 85-88	+1.5	L −1.5	145.5	O 173
Mar 12	vsTXSO	W 85-74	-1.5	W +9.5	142.5	O 159
Mar 13	vsPV	L 55-74	-1.5	L −20.5	140.5	U 129

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

L 51-98

−16.5

CHSO

W 68-64

+2.5

LIN

W 74-65

+5.5

CLEM

L 56-92

−8.5

CCU

L 60-67

+0.5

TNST

W 80-53

+31.5

LIP

L 58-92

−22.5

UNA

W 68-60

+12.5

MISS

L 66-80

+6.5

UTC

L 66-73

−4.5

UAPB

L 83-95

−13.5

MVSU

W 71-51

+9.5

ALCN

L 62-64

−11.5

JKST

W 100-91

+2.5

ALST

W 73-69

+5.5

TXSO

L 74-89

−16.5

W 80-60

+22.5

FAMU

W 72-65

+3.5

BCU

L 62-80

−15.5

SOU

L 68-81

−6.5

GRAM

W 66-58

+12.5

MVSU

W 72-65

−8.5

UAPB

W 82-70

+8.5

FAMU

W 63-61

+3.5

BCU

L 76-85

−2.5

ALST

L 88-89

−2.5

GRAM

W 77-63

+11.5

SOU

L 85-88

−1.5

TXSO

W 85-74

+9.5

L 55-74

−20.5

covered 16didn’t cover 14avg −0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

L 51-98

+1.5

CHSO

W 68-64

−20.5

LIN

W 74-65

−10.5

CLEM

L 56-92

+6.5

CCU

L 60-67

−13.5

TNST

W 80-53

−14.5

LIP

L 58-92

+3.5

UNA

W 68-60

−12.5

MISS

L 66-80

+10.5

UTC

L 66-73

+0.5

UAPB

L 83-95

+28.5

MVSU

W 71-51

−13.5

ALCN

L 62-64

−14.5

JKST

W 100-91

+50.5

ALST

W 73-69

−4.5

TXSO

L 74-89

+17.5

W 80-60

−12.5

FAMU

W 72-65

−1.5

BCU

L 62-80

+0.5

SOU

L 68-81

+5.5

GRAM

W 66-58

−12.5

MVSU

W 72-65

−1.5

UAPB

W 82-70

+7.5

FAMU

W 63-61

−15.5

BCU

L 76-85

+18.5

ALST

L 88-89

+33.5

GRAM

W 77-63

−0.5

SOU

L 85-88

+27.5

TXSO

W 85-74

+16.5

L 55-74

−11.5

over 15under 15avg +2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Lipscomb has the better starters

Position by position: Lipscomb 3, Alabama A&M 1, even 1

LipscombBetterAlabama A&M

G T. Simpkins TR12.5 pts · 2.9 reb · 2.4 ast Score 79

LIPBig

G S. Pissis10.4 pts · 3.1 reb · 4 ast Score 38

G M. Esmeraldo9.8 pts · 3.9 reb · 6.9 ast Score 81

LIPBig

G J. Graham9.8 pts · 4 reb · 0.8 ast Score 41

F T. Sargiunas9.9 pts · 2 reb · 1.8 ast Score 28

LIPSmall

G J. Edwards TR6.8 pts · 1.8 reb · 1.9 ast Score 9

F O. Ashkenazi2.7 pts · 2.8 reb · 1.4 ast Score 3

Even

G G. Kincy3.8 pts · 2.9 reb · 0.6 ast Score 3

F T. Byrne TR3.8 pts · 2.7 reb · 1.9 ast Score 4

AAMUBig

G B. Abdur-Rahman4.6 pts · 1.1 reb · 1.4 ast Score 65

LipscombBetterAlabama A&M

LIP offense191st of 366 · -5.9

LIPSmall

AAMU defense305th of 366 · -7.8

LIP defense226th of 366 · -6.0

LIPSmall

AAMU offense325th of 366 · -10.6

Backcourt+3.0 · 2 players

LIPBig

Backcourt-8.1 · 5 players

Frontcourt-6.7 · 3 players

No call

FrontcourtNo numbers yet

Bench-1.1 · 1 player

LIPSmall

Bench-3.2 · 3 players

Score, worst to bestLIP betterAAMU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Lipscomb

Guards

T. Simpkins32 min · TRM. Esmeraldo31 minZ. WellsNewV. VisnjicNewH. TidareNewK. QuinnNew

Forwards

T. Sargiunas24 minO. Ashkenazi20 minT. Byrne16 min · TRK. Okpara13 minL. JackNewD. MartinNew

Alabama A&M

Guards

S. Pissis30 minJ. Graham25 minJ. Edwards23 min · TRG. Kincy19 minB. Abdur-Rahman12 minN. Johnson10 min · TR

Forwards

S. Onu7 minS. WalkerNewD. MeriwetherNewK. PaulNewD. BrownNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

LIP77.6 #104

AAMU71.4 #261

Points per possession

LIP1.10 #142

AAMU1.05 #240

Pace (possessions)

LIP70.8 #83

AAMU67.6 #250

Shooting

Effective FG%

LIP54.1 #67

AAMU49.2 #281

3-point %

LIP35.7 #75

AAMU35.0 #114

3-point attempt rate

LIP47.9 #24

AAMU34.0 #295

Free throw rate

LIP26.0 #357

AAMU45.4 #3

Possessions

Turnover rate

LIP16.0 #142

AAMU16.5 #167

Offensive rebound rate

LIP25.8 #327

AAMU27.4 #283

Assists per game

LIP17.2 #19

AAMU11.2 #328

Defense

Points allowed

LIP77.0 #242

AAMU73.9 #152

Points allowed per possession

LIP1.09 #187

AAMU1.09 #212

Opponent effective FG%

LIP53.2 #273

AAMU52.1 #220

Opponent 3-point %

LIP34.3 #207

AAMU35.4 #272

Turnovers forced

LIP17.7 #113

AAMU16.6 #176

Defensive rebound rate

LIP69.8 #171

AAMU70.5 #138

Steals per game

LIP6.8 #141

AAMU6.2 #211

Blocks per game

LIP2.6 #291

AAMU2.7 #271

LIP		AAMU
Scoring
77.6 #104	Points per game	71.4 #261
1.10 #142	Points per possession	1.05 #240
70.8 #83	Pace (possessions)	67.6 #250
Shooting
54.1 #67	Effective FG%	49.2 #281
35.7 #75	3-point %	35.0 #114
47.9 #24	3-point attempt rate	34.0 #295
26.0 #357	Free throw rate	45.4 #3
Possessions
16.0 #142	Turnover rate	16.5 #167
25.8 #327	Offensive rebound rate	27.4 #283
17.2 #19	Assists per game	11.2 #328
Defense
77.0 #242	Points allowed	73.9 #152
1.09 #187	Points allowed per possession	1.09 #212
53.2 #273	Opponent effective FG%	52.1 #220
34.3 #207	Opponent 3-point %	35.4 #272
17.7 #113	Turnovers forced	16.6 #176
69.8 #171	Defensive rebound rate	70.5 #138
6.8 #141	Steals per game	6.2 #211
2.6 #291	Blocks per game	2.7 #271

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Lipscomb

17-13 in 2025-26 overall · 12-7 in conference · Atlantic Sun Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs FGCU53–77
W@ E Kentucky80–77
L@ West Georgia78–84
Wvs North Alabama73–51
W@ Bellarmine75–72

A week or more of rest.

Alabama A&M

15-15 in 2025-26 overall · 11-9 in conference · Southwestern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Prairie View55–74
Wvs Texas Southern85–74
Lvs Southern85–88
Wvs Grambling77–63
Lvs Alabama St88–89

A week or more of rest.

Lipscomb Bisons at Alabama A&M Bulldogs

What could decide it: LIP has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Lipscomb

Alabama A&M

Lipscomb has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Lipscomb

Alabama A&M