Alabama A&M Bulldogs at North Alabama Lions: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 24, 8:00 PM ETCB&S Bank Arena at Flowers Hall · at North Alabama

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Alabama A&M and North Alabama
AAMU	This season	UNA
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UNA 73–69 · win probability UNA 64%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 142.4

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: AAMU has more of the edges

AAMU 4, UNA 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

AAMUBig

Three-pointers

AAMU hits 35.0% and allows 35.4%; UNA hits 30.7% and allows 35.7%. Threes are 34.0% and 33.6% of their shots

AAMUSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: AAMU 16.5%, UNA 17.5%. Forced: AAMU 16.6%, UNA 14.6%

AAMUSmall

Shooting

Effective FG%: AAMU 49.2 and allows 52.1; UNA 48.0 and allows 55.2

UNASmall

AAMU offense vs UNA defense

Offense 325th of 366 against a defense 251st, on the model’s ratings

Context

Schedule so far

AAMU has played the 363rd-hardest schedule, UNA the 294th. A record against a soft schedule means less

AAMUSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: AAMU 51%, UNA 16%. Transfers in: AAMU 2, UNA 5. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

UNASmall

Home court

UNA at home. This season: UNA 0-0 at home, AAMU 0-0 away

UNASmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: AAMU 45.4, UNA 37.6. Allowed: AAMU 38.6, UNA 30.3

Context

Tempo

About 67 possessions: AAMU plays 67.6 a game (250th fastest), UNA 66.2 (304th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: AAMU 27.4%, UNA 31.2%. Defensive: AAMU 70.5%, UNA 67.8%

Even

UNA offense vs AAMU defense

Offense 308th of 366 against a defense 305th, on the model’s ratings

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	UNA -4.3	—
Total	—	142.4	—
Projected score	—	AAMU 69.1 · UNA 73.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UNA -2.4	—
1H total	66.6	—
1H projected score	AAMU 32.1 · UNA 34.5	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
AAMU LWLWL	16-14	53%	5-7	—
UNA WLWLL	10-18	36%	3-8	—

Venue/role: AAMU away; UNA home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
AAMU OUOOU	15-15	50%	15-15
UNA OUUUU	12-16	43%	7-21

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
AAMU	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
UNA	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Alabama A&M

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 1	@ UTC	L66–73LO
Dec 7	@ MSST	No recent meeting
Dec 13	@ UGA	L45–93LU

North Alabama

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 1	@ DEP	No recent meeting
Dec 6	@ CLT	No recent meeting
Dec 9	vs UTM	W87–69WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

AAMU 1–3 UNAUNA leads · 4 games since 2021-22 · AAMU 1-3 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 15, 2025-26	UNA 60 @ AAMU 68	AAMU +4.5	AAMU W
Nov 9, 2023-24	AAMU 67 @ UNA 83	UNA -10.5	UNA W
Nov 10, 2022-23	UNA 84 @ AAMU 76	AAMU -1	UNA W
Dec 8, 2021-22	AAMU 45 @ UNA 56	UNA -8.5	UNA W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Alabama A&M

30 games played

Straight up

15-15

50% wins

Against the spread

16-14

53% covers · avg −0.1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-15

50% overs · avg +2.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

15-1550%

L W W L L W L W L L L W L W W L W W L L W W W W L L W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

16-1453%

L W W L W W L W W L L W L W W L W W L L W L W W L L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

15-1550%

O U U O U U O U O O O U U O U O U U O O U U O U O O U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	@IU	L 51-98	+30.5	L −16.5	147.5	O 149
Nov 13	vsCHSO	W 68-64	-1.5	W +2.5	152.5	U 132
Nov 16	vsLIN	W 74-65	-3.5	W +5.5	149.5	U 139
Nov 28	@CLEM	L 56-92	+27.5	L −8.5	141.5	O 148
Nov 30	@CCU	L 60-67	+7.5	W +0.5	140.5	U 127
Dec 3	vsTNST	W 80-53	+4.5	W +31.5	147.5	U 133
Dec 7	@LIP	L 58-92	+11.5	L −22.5	146.5	O 150
Dec 15	vsUNA	W 68-60	+4.5	W +12.5	140.5	U 128
Dec 17	vsMISS	L 66-80	+20.5	W +6.5	135.5	O 146
Dec 21	vsUTC	L 66-73	+2.5	L −4.5	138.5	O 139
Jan 3	@UAPB	L 83-95	-1.5	L −13.5	149.5	O 178
Jan 5	@MVSU	W 71-51	-10.5	W +9.5	135.5	U 122
Jan 10	vsALCN	L 62-64	-9.5	L −11.5	140.5	U 126
Jan 12	vsJKST	W 100-91	-6.5	W +2.5	140.5	O 191
Jan 19	vsALST	W 73-69	+1.5	W +5.5	146.5	U 142
Jan 24	@TXSO	L 74-89	-1.5	L −16.5	145.5	O 163
Jan 27	@PV	W 80-60	+2.5	W +22.5	152.5	U 140
Jan 31	vsFAMU	W 72-65	-3.5	W +3.5	138.5	U 137
Feb 2	vsBCU	L 62-80	+2.5	L −15.5	141.5	O 142
Feb 7	@SOU	L 68-81	+6.5	L −6.5	143.5	O 149
Feb 9	@GRAM	W 66-58	+4.5	W +12.5	136.5	U 124
Feb 14	vsMVSU	W 72-65	-15.5	L −8.5	138.5	U 137
Feb 16	vsUAPB	W 82-70	-3.5	W +8.5	144.5	O 152
Feb 19	@FAMU	W 63-61	+1.5	W +3.5	139.5	U 124
Feb 21	@BCU	L 76-85	+6.5	L −2.5	142.5	O 161
Feb 28	vsALST	L 88-89	-1.5	L −2.5	143.5	O 177
Mar 3	vsGRAM	W 77-63	-2.5	W +11.5	140.5	U 140
Mar 5	vsSOU	L 85-88	+1.5	L −1.5	145.5	O 173
Mar 12	vsTXSO	W 85-74	-1.5	W +9.5	142.5	O 159
Mar 13	vsPV	L 55-74	-1.5	L −20.5	140.5	U 129

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

L 51-98

−16.5

CHSO

W 68-64

+2.5

LIN

W 74-65

+5.5

CLEM

L 56-92

−8.5

CCU

L 60-67

+0.5

TNST

W 80-53

+31.5

LIP

L 58-92

−22.5

UNA

W 68-60

+12.5

MISS

L 66-80

+6.5

UTC

L 66-73

−4.5

UAPB

L 83-95

−13.5

MVSU

W 71-51

+9.5

ALCN

L 62-64

−11.5

JKST

W 100-91

+2.5

ALST

W 73-69

+5.5

TXSO

L 74-89

−16.5

W 80-60

+22.5

FAMU

W 72-65

+3.5

BCU

L 62-80

−15.5

SOU

L 68-81

−6.5

GRAM

W 66-58

+12.5

MVSU

W 72-65

−8.5

UAPB

W 82-70

+8.5

FAMU

W 63-61

+3.5

BCU

L 76-85

−2.5

ALST

L 88-89

−2.5

GRAM

W 77-63

+11.5

SOU

L 85-88

−1.5

TXSO

W 85-74

+9.5

L 55-74

−20.5

covered 16didn’t cover 14avg −0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

L 51-98

+1.5

CHSO

W 68-64

−20.5

LIN

W 74-65

−10.5

CLEM

L 56-92

+6.5

CCU

L 60-67

−13.5

TNST

W 80-53

−14.5

LIP

L 58-92

+3.5

UNA

W 68-60

−12.5

MISS

L 66-80

+10.5

UTC

L 66-73

+0.5

UAPB

L 83-95

+28.5

MVSU

W 71-51

−13.5

ALCN

L 62-64

−14.5

JKST

W 100-91

+50.5

ALST

W 73-69

−4.5

TXSO

L 74-89

+17.5

W 80-60

−12.5

FAMU

W 72-65

−1.5

BCU

L 62-80

+0.5

SOU

L 68-81

+5.5

GRAM

W 66-58

−12.5

MVSU

W 72-65

−1.5

UAPB

W 82-70

+7.5

FAMU

W 63-61

−15.5

BCU

L 76-85

+18.5

ALST

L 88-89

+33.5

GRAM

W 77-63

−0.5

SOU

L 85-88

+27.5

TXSO

W 85-74

+16.5

L 55-74

−11.5

over 15under 15avg +2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

North Alabama

28 games played

Straight up

7-21

25% wins

Against the spread

10-18

36% covers · avg −4.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

12-16

43% overs · avg −0.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

7-2125%

L W L L L W W L L L L L W L L L L W L L L L W L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

10-1836%

W L L W L W W L L L L L W L L L W W L L L L W W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

12-1643%

U O O U U O U U O U U O O O O U U U U O U O O O U U U U

4 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	@MSST	L 62-86	+24.5	W +0.5	151.5	U 148
Nov 11	vsNWST	W 87-83	-6.5	L −2.5	142.5	O 170
Nov 15	vsETSU	L 74-78	-1.5	L −5.5	145.5	O 152
Nov 17	@CLEM	L 61-81	+25.5	W +5.5	144.5	U 142
Nov 22	@UTC	L 57-71	+9.5	L −4.5	149.5	U 128
Dec 1	@JXST	W 73-66	+6.5	W +13.5	134.5	O 139
Dec 3	@SF	W 65-63	+16.5	W +18.5	145.5	U 128
Dec 15	@AAMU	L 60-68	-4.5	L −12.5	140.5	U 128
Dec 19	@LMU	L 57-91	+10.5	L −23.5	140.5	O 148
Jan 1	vsSTET	L 67-70	-9.5	L −12.5	142.5	U 137
Jan 3	vsFGCU	L 55-72	+2.5	L −14.5	147.5	U 127
Jan 8	@EKU	L 80-88	+5.5	L −2.5	148.5	O 168
Jan 10	@BELL	W 82-73	+4.5	W +13.5	146.5	O 155
Jan 15	vsUNF	L 91-105	-9.5	L −23.5	157.5	O 196
Jan 17	vsJAX	L 68-90	-1.5	L −23.5	133.5	O 158
Jan 21	@QUC	L 62-87	+12.5	L −12.5	162.5	U 149
Jan 29	@FGCU	L 64-72	+9.5	W +1.5	147.5	U 136
Jan 31	@STET	W 68-66	+1.5	W +3.5	144.5	U 134
Feb 4	@CARK	L 60-81	+10.5	L −10.5	147.5	U 141
Feb 7	@APSU	L 62-91	+12.5	L −16.5	145.5	O 153
Feb 9	vsCARK	L 65-72	+6.5	L −0.5	145.5	U 137
Feb 11	vsWGA	L 73-82	-1.5	L −10.5	145.5	O 155
Feb 15	vsEKU	W 84-78	+4.5	W +10.5	150.5	O 162
Feb 18	vsQUC	L 78-85	+8.5	W +1.5	156.5	O 163
Feb 21	@LIP	L 51-73	+12.5	L −9.5	149.5	U 124
Feb 25	vsBELL	W 73-68	+2.5	W +7.5	146.5	U 141
Feb 28	@WGA	L 63-75	+4.5	L −7.5	146.5	U 138
Mar 4	vsFGCU	L 58-69	+8.5	L −2.5	139.5	U 127

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MSST

L 62-86

+0.5

NWST

W 87-83

−2.5

ETSU

L 74-78

−5.5

CLEM

L 61-81

+5.5

UTC

L 57-71

−4.5

JXST

W 73-66

+13.5

W 65-63

+18.5

AAMU

L 60-68

−12.5

LMU

L 57-91

−23.5

STET

L 67-70

−12.5

FGCU

L 55-72

−14.5

EKU

L 80-88

−2.5

BELL

W 82-73

+13.5

UNF

L 91-105

−23.5

JAX

L 68-90

−23.5

QUC

L 62-87

−12.5

FGCU

L 64-72

+1.5

STET

W 68-66

+3.5

CARK

L 60-81

−10.5

APSU

L 62-91

−16.5

CARK

L 65-72

−0.5

WGA

L 73-82

−10.5

EKU

W 84-78

+10.5

QUC

L 78-85

+1.5

LIP

L 51-73

−9.5

BELL

W 73-68

+7.5

WGA

L 63-75

−7.5

FGCU

L 58-69

−2.5

covered 10didn’t cover 18avg −4.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MSST

L 62-86

−3.5

NWST

W 87-83

+27.5

ETSU

L 74-78

+6.5

CLEM

L 61-81

−2.5

UTC

L 57-71

−21.5

JXST

W 73-66

+4.5

W 65-63

−17.5

AAMU

L 60-68

−12.5

LMU

L 57-91

+7.5

STET

L 67-70

−5.5

FGCU

L 55-72

−20.5

EKU

L 80-88

+19.5

BELL

W 82-73

+8.5

UNF

L 91-105

+38.5

JAX

L 68-90

+24.5

QUC

L 62-87

−13.5

FGCU

L 64-72

−11.5

STET

W 68-66

−10.5

CARK

L 60-81

−6.5

APSU

L 62-91

+7.5

CARK

L 65-72

−8.5

WGA

L 73-82

+9.5

EKU

W 84-78

+11.5

QUC

L 78-85

+6.5

LIP

L 51-73

−25.5

BELL

W 73-68

−5.5

WGA

L 63-75

−8.5

FGCU

L 58-69

−12.5

over 12under 16avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Alabama A&M has the better starters

Position by position: Alabama A&M 2, North Alabama 1, even 2

Alabama A&MBetterNorth Alabama

G S. Pissis10.4 pts · 3.1 reb · 4 ast Score 38

Even

G M. Evbagharu TR9.2 pts · 7 reb · 3.1 ast Score 43

G J. Graham9.8 pts · 4 reb · 0.8 ast Score 41

AAMUSmall

G B. Patton6 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.5 ast Score 17

G J. Edwards TR6.8 pts · 1.8 reb · 1.9 ast Score 9

No call

G J. Clark TR6.1 pts · 1.9 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked

G G. Kincy3.8 pts · 2.9 reb · 0.6 ast Score 3

UNABig

F D. Yates TR6.5 pts · 3.6 reb · 0.6 ast Score 59

G B. Abdur-Rahman4.6 pts · 1.1 reb · 1.4 ast Score 65

AAMUBig

F J. Whitted TR2.8 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.8 ast Score 9

Alabama A&MBetterNorth Alabama

AAMU offense325th of 366 · -10.6

UNASmall

UNA defense251st of 366 · -6.6

AAMU defense305th of 366 · -7.8

Even

UNA offense308th of 366 · -9.6

Backcourt-8.1 · 5 players

UNABig

Backcourt-3.3 · 3 players

FrontcourtNo numbers yet

No call

Frontcourt-1.6 · 2 players

Bench-3.2 · 3 players

Even

Bench-3.8 · 2 players

Score, worst to bestAAMU betterUNA betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Alabama A&M

Guards

S. Pissis30 minJ. Graham25 minJ. Edwards23 min · TRG. Kincy19 minB. Abdur-Rahman12 minN. Johnson10 min · TR

Forwards

S. Onu7 minS. WalkerNewD. MeriwetherNewK. PaulNewD. BrownNew

North Alabama

Guards

M. Evbagharu34 min · TRB. Patton18 minJ. Clark15 min · TRQ. Lax15 min · TRC. Graham-Howard14 minC. HarrisNew

Forwards

D. Yates17 min · TRJ. Whitted15 min · TRD. CarterNewA. OsmanNewJ. GulleyNew

Centers

M. ChaffeeNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

AAMU71.4 #261

UNA67.9 #317

Points per possession

AAMU1.05 #240

UNA1.02 #300

Pace (possessions)

AAMU67.6 #250

UNA66.2 #304

Shooting

Effective FG%

AAMU49.2 #281

UNA48.0 #312

3-point %

AAMU35.0 #114

UNA30.7 #327

3-point attempt rate

AAMU34.0 #295

UNA33.6 #306

Free throw rate

AAMU45.4 #3

UNA37.6 #111

Possessions

Turnover rate

AAMU16.5 #167

UNA17.5 #238

Offensive rebound rate

AAMU27.4 #283

UNA31.2 #160

Assists per game

AAMU11.2 #328

UNA9.7 #363

Defense

Points allowed

AAMU73.9 #152

UNA78.0 #267

Points allowed per possession

AAMU1.09 #212

UNA1.18 #350

Opponent effective FG%

AAMU52.1 #220

UNA55.2 #337

Opponent 3-point %

AAMU35.4 #272

UNA35.7 #292

Turnovers forced

AAMU16.6 #176

UNA14.6 #319

Defensive rebound rate

AAMU70.5 #138

UNA67.8 #268

Steals per game

AAMU6.2 #211

UNA6.3 #202

Blocks per game

AAMU2.7 #271

UNA3.7 #112

AAMU		UNA
Scoring
71.4 #261	Points per game	67.9 #317
1.05 #240	Points per possession	1.02 #300
67.6 #250	Pace (possessions)	66.2 #304
Shooting
49.2 #281	Effective FG%	48.0 #312
35.0 #114	3-point %	30.7 #327
34.0 #295	3-point attempt rate	33.6 #306
45.4 #3	Free throw rate	37.6 #111
Possessions
16.5 #167	Turnover rate	17.5 #238
27.4 #283	Offensive rebound rate	31.2 #160
11.2 #328	Assists per game	9.7 #363
Defense
73.9 #152	Points allowed	78.0 #267
1.09 #212	Points allowed per possession	1.18 #350
52.1 #220	Opponent effective FG%	55.2 #337
35.4 #272	Opponent 3-point %	35.7 #292
16.6 #176	Turnovers forced	14.6 #319
70.5 #138	Defensive rebound rate	67.8 #268
6.2 #211	Steals per game	6.3 #202
2.7 #271	Blocks per game	3.7 #112

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Alabama A&M

15-15 in 2025-26 overall · 11-9 in conference · Southwestern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Prairie View55–74
Wvs Texas Southern85–74
Lvs Southern85–88
Wvs Grambling77–63
Lvs Alabama St88–89

A week or more of rest.

North Alabama

7-21 in 2025-26 overall · 4-15 in conference · United Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs FGCU58–69
L@ West Georgia63–75
Wvs Bellarmine73–68
L@ Lipscomb51–73
Lvs Queens University Royals78–85

A week or more of rest.

Alabama A&M Bulldogs at North Alabama Lions

What could decide it: AAMU has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Alabama A&M

North Alabama

Alabama A&M has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Alabama A&M

North Alabama