South Carolina State Bulldogs at The Citadel Bulldogs: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 20, 12:00 AM ETMcAlister Field House · at The Citadel

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: SC State and The Citadel
SCST	This season	CIT
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects CIT 75–69 · win probability CIT 72%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 144.2

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it

SCST 1, CIT 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

SCSTBig

Three-pointers

SCST hits 34.0% and allows 33.5%; CIT hits 32.0% and allows 36.6%. Threes are 33.3% and 47.8% of their shots

Context

Tempo

About 68 possessions: SCST plays 70.3 a game (102nd fastest), CIT 66.1 (313th). Faster games mean more points

Context

Schedule so far

SCST has played the 317th-hardest schedule, CIT the 233rd. A record against a soft schedule means less

CITSmall

Home court

CIT at home. This season: CIT 0-0 at home, SCST 0-0 away

Even

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: SCST 34%, CIT 18%. Transfers in: SCST 1, CIT 6. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

Even

SCST offense vs CIT defense

Offense 341st of 366 against a defense 314th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: SCST 20.8%, CIT 16.3%. Forced: SCST 18.8%, CIT 14.8%

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: SCST 41.0, CIT 30.0. Allowed: SCST 51.9, CIT 33.3

Even

CIT offense vs SCST defense

Offense 343rd of 366 against a defense 351st, on the model’s ratings

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: SCST 31.4%, CIT 27.9%. Defensive: SCST 62.4%, CIT 68.5%

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: SCST 46.8 and allows 53.9; CIT 49.5 and allows 57.5

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	CIT -6.6	—
Total	—	144.2	—
Projected score	—	SCST 68.8 · CIT 75.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	CIT -3.8	—
1H total	67.5	—
1H projected score	SCST 31.8 · CIT 35.6	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SCST LWWWL	13-17	43%	7-12	—
CIT LLWWW	15-15	50%	6-6	—

Venue/role: SCST away; CIT home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
SCST UUOOU	15-15	50%	8-22
CIT OUOOO	15-15	50%	8-22

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SCST	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
CIT	3-7 30%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

SC State

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 23	vs NCAT	L62–85LU
Nov 28	@ DUQ	L71–96LO
Dec 2	vs WIN	L79–101LO

The Citadel

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 25	vs UPST	No recent meeting
Nov 28	@ HPU	No recent meeting
Dec 1	@ CHSO	L86–96LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

SCST 1–1 CITSeries tied · 2 games since 2021-22 · SCST 1-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Dec 20, 2021-22	SCST 74 @ CIT 57	CIT -11.5	SCST W
Nov 28, 2021-22	CIT 91 @ SCST 79	SCST +10.5	CIT W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

SC State

30 games played

Straight up

8-22

27% wins

Against the spread

13-17

43% covers · avg −0.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-15

50% overs · avg +0.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-2227%

L L L L L L L L L L L L L L W L W L W W L L W L L L W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

13-1743%

L W L L L W W L L L L W W L W L W L W W L L W L L L W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

15-1550%

U U U U U O O O U U O O O O U U O O U U O U O O O U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@LOU	L 45-104	+35.5	L −23.5	159.5	U 149
Nov 7	@SAM	L 72-82	+14.5	W +4.5	154.5	U 154
Nov 10	@NCAT	L 62-85	+2.5	L −20.5	159.5	U 147
Nov 14	@COFC	L 61-88	+18.5	L −8.5	156.5	U 149
Nov 19	vsUTC	L 66-78	+11.5	L −0.5	154.5	U 144
Nov 23	@SDAK	L 81-82	+15.5	W +14.5	160.5	O 163
Nov 25	@MIZ	L 66-98	+34.5	W +2.5	160.5	O 164
Nov 29	@WIN	L 79-101	+20.5	L −1.5	157.5	O 180
Dec 5	@BCU	L 59-80	+13.5	L −7.5	148.5	U 139
Dec 8	@CHSO	L 44-84	+12.5	L −27.5	156.5	U 128
Dec 12	@QUC	L 78-102	+18.5	L −5.5	157.5	O 180
Dec 16	vsUPST	L 72-78	+10.5	W +4.5	147.5	O 150
Dec 22	@SC	L 70-95	+31.5	W +6.5	149.5	O 165
Dec 30	@TENN	L 54-105	+44.5	L −6.5	147.5	O 159
Jan 3	vsHOW	W 58-57	+8.5	W +9.5	144.5	U 115
Jan 10	@MORG	L 67-72	+4.5	L −0.5	147.5	U 139
Jan 12	@COPP	W 74-72	+1.5	W +3.5	140.5	O 146
Jan 17	vsNORF	L 82-89	+5.5	L −1.5	139.5	O 171
Jan 26	vsDSU	W 70-64	-1.5	W +4.5	135.5	U 134
Feb 4	vsUMES	W 63-54	+3.5	W +12.5	133.5	U 117
Feb 7	@HOW	L 57-85	+14.5	L −13.5	141.5	O 142
Feb 16	vsCOPP	L 57-59	-4.5	L −6.5	138.5	U 116
Feb 18	vsNCCU	W 85-72	+2.5	W +15.5	136.5	O 157
Feb 21	@NORF	L 71-90	+10.5	L −8.5	140.5	O 161
Feb 25	vsMORG	L 83-90	+1.5	L −5.5	153.5	O 173
Feb 28	@UMES	L 57-69	+5.5	L −6.5	132.5	U 126
Mar 2	@DSU	W 61-59	+3.5	W +5.5	134.5	U 120
Mar 5	@NCCU	W 80-64	+7.5	W +23.5	140.5	O 144
Mar 12	vsNORF	W 88-82	+7.5	W +13.5	144.5	O 170
Mar 13	vsHOW	L 61-78	+15.5	L −1.5	145.5	U 139

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

LOU

L 45-104

−23.5

SAM

L 72-82

+4.5

NCAT

L 62-85

−20.5

COFC

L 61-88

−8.5

UTC

L 66-78

−0.5

SDAK

L 81-82

+14.5

MIZ

L 66-98

+2.5

WIN

L 79-101

−1.5

BCU

L 59-80

−7.5

CHSO

L 44-84

−27.5

QUC

L 78-102

−5.5

UPST

L 72-78

+4.5

L 70-95

+6.5

TENN

L 54-105

−6.5

HOW

W 58-57

+9.5

MORG

L 67-72

−0.5

COPP

W 74-72

+3.5

NORF

L 82-89

−1.5

DSU

W 70-64

+4.5

UMES

W 63-54

+12.5

HOW

L 57-85

−13.5

COPP

L 57-59

−6.5

NCCU

W 85-72

+15.5

NORF

L 71-90

−8.5

MORG

L 83-90

−5.5

UMES

L 57-69

−6.5

DSU

W 61-59

+5.5

NCCU

W 80-64

+23.5

NORF

W 88-82

+13.5

HOW

L 61-78

−1.5

covered 13didn’t cover 17avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

LOU

L 45-104

−10.5

SAM

L 72-82

−0.5

NCAT

L 62-85

−12.5

COFC

L 61-88

−7.5

UTC

L 66-78

−10.5

SDAK

L 81-82

+2.5

MIZ

L 66-98

+3.5

WIN

L 79-101

+22.5

BCU

L 59-80

−9.5

CHSO

L 44-84

−28.5

QUC

L 78-102

+22.5

UPST

L 72-78

+2.5

L 70-95

+15.5

TENN

L 54-105

+11.5

HOW

W 58-57

−29.5

MORG

L 67-72

−8.5

COPP

W 74-72

+5.5

NORF

L 82-89

+31.5

DSU

W 70-64

−1.5

UMES

W 63-54

−16.5

HOW

L 57-85

+0.5

COPP

L 57-59

−22.5

NCCU

W 85-72

+20.5

NORF

L 71-90

+20.5

MORG

L 83-90

+19.5

UMES

L 57-69

−6.5

DSU

W 61-59

−14.5

NCCU

W 80-64

+3.5

NORF

W 88-82

+25.5

HOW

L 61-78

−6.5

over 15under 15avg +0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

The Citadel

30 games played

Straight up

8-22

27% wins

Against the spread

15-15

50% covers · avg −0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

15-15

50% overs · avg +2.6 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-2227%

L L L L L L L L L L L L L W L W W L W W L W L L L L L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

15-1550%

L L L L L L W W W L L W L W W W W L W W L W L L W L L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

15-1550%

U O O U U U O U O U U O O O U O O U U U U O U U O O U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 6	@BC	L 47-76	+15.5	L −13.5	144.5	U 123
Nov 10	vsCHSO	L 86-96	+2.5	L −7.5	145.5	O 182
Nov 14	@WGA	L 92-100	+6.5	L −1.5	150.5	O 192
Nov 24	vsBELL	L 58-70	+3.5	L −8.5	156.5	U 128
Nov 26	vsHCU	L 65-72	+1.5	L −5.5	137.5	U 137
Nov 30	vsPRES	L 41-69	+8.5	L −19.5	133.5	U 110
Dec 4	@DAV	L 63-79	+18.5	W +2.5	137.5	O 142
Dec 13	@SC	L 55-71	+22.5	W +6.5	141.5	U 126
Dec 17	@COFC	L 78-82	+17.5	W +13.5	146.5	O 160
Dec 20	@RICH	L 56-80	+18.5	L −5.5	146.5	U 136
Dec 30	vsETSU	L 49-74	+12.5	L −12.5	140.5	U 123
Jan 3	vsWOF	L 86-95	+9.5	W +0.5	144.5	O 181
Jan 7	@MER	L 63-101	+16.5	L −21.5	147.5	O 164
Jan 10	vsWCU	W 79-77	+6.5	W +8.5	148.5	O 156
Jan 15	@UNCG	L 66-69	+9.5	W +6.5	148.5	U 135
Jan 17	@VMI	W 82-68	+6.5	W +20.5	143.5	O 150
Jan 21	vsFUR	W 77-75	+11.5	W +13.5	142.5	O 152
Jan 23	@ETSU	L 55-84	+17.5	L −11.5	141.5	U 139
Jan 29	vsVMI	W 80-56	-2.5	W +21.5	142.5	U 136
Jan 31	vsUNCG	W 71-66	+2.5	W +7.5	147.5	U 137
Feb 5	@SAM	L 64-78	+13.5	L −0.5	146.5	U 142
Feb 7	@UTC	W 78-71	+9.5	W +16.5	142.5	O 149
Feb 11	@WCU	L 49-87	+9.5	L −28.5	145.5	U 136
Feb 14	vsMER	L 54-70	+11.5	L −4.5	147.5	U 124
Feb 19	vsSAM	L 75-78	+10.5	W +7.5	143.5	O 153
Feb 21	vsUTC	L 72-93	+4.5	L −16.5	144.5	O 165
Feb 25	@FUR	L 51-72	+15.5	L −5.5	143.5	U 123
Feb 28	@WOF	W 93-90	+11.5	W +14.5	148.5	O 183
Mar 6	vsUTC	W 88-85	+7.5	W +10.5	148.5	O 173
Mar 7	vsETSU	L 76-83	+14.5	W +7.5	139.5	O 159

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

L 47-76

−13.5

CHSO

L 86-96

−7.5

WGA

L 92-100

−1.5

BELL

L 58-70

−8.5

HCU

L 65-72

−5.5

PRES

L 41-69

−19.5

DAV

L 63-79

+2.5

L 55-71

+6.5

COFC

L 78-82

+13.5

RICH

L 56-80

−5.5

ETSU

L 49-74

−12.5

WOF

L 86-95

+0.5

MER

L 63-101

−21.5

WCU

W 79-77

+8.5

UNCG

L 66-69

+6.5

VMI

W 82-68

+20.5

FUR

W 77-75

+13.5

ETSU

L 55-84

−11.5

VMI

W 80-56

+21.5

UNCG

W 71-66

+7.5

SAM

L 64-78

−0.5

UTC

W 78-71

+16.5

WCU

L 49-87

−28.5

MER

L 54-70

−4.5

SAM

L 75-78

+7.5

UTC

L 72-93

−16.5

FUR

L 51-72

−5.5

WOF

W 93-90

+14.5

UTC

W 88-85

+10.5

ETSU

L 76-83

+7.5

covered 15didn’t cover 15avg −0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

L 47-76

−21.5

CHSO

L 86-96

+36.5

WGA

L 92-100

+41.5

BELL

L 58-70

−28.5

HCU

L 65-72

−0.5

PRES

L 41-69

−23.5

DAV

L 63-79

+4.5

L 55-71

−15.5

COFC

L 78-82

+13.5

RICH

L 56-80

−10.5

ETSU

L 49-74

−17.5

WOF

L 86-95

+36.5

MER

L 63-101

+16.5

WCU

W 79-77

+7.5

UNCG

L 66-69

−13.5

VMI

W 82-68

+6.5

FUR

W 77-75

+9.5

ETSU

L 55-84

−2.5

VMI

W 80-56

−6.5

UNCG

W 71-66

−10.5

SAM

L 64-78

−4.5

UTC

W 78-71

+6.5

WCU

L 49-87

−9.5

MER

L 54-70

−23.5

SAM

L 75-78

+9.5

UTC

L 72-93

+20.5

FUR

L 51-72

−20.5

WOF

W 93-90

+34.5

UTC

W 88-85

+24.5

ETSU

L 76-83

+19.5

over 15under 15avg +2.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

The Citadel has the better starters

Position by position: SC State 1, The Citadel 2, even 2

SC StateBetterThe Citadel

G D. Jackson TR6.1 pts · 2.9 reb · 2.8 ast Score 24

Even

G E. Bronson TR5.5 pts · 1.7 reb · 1 ast Score 13

G N. Treadwell9.4 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.6 ast Score 25

No call

G C. McKenzie TR2.7 pts · 1.8 reb · 0.3 ast Not ranked

F D. Hodge2.5 pts · 2.9 reb · 1.2 ast Score 1

CITSmall

G M. Gonzales3.8 pts · 1.6 reb · 1.6 ast Score 17

F C. Parker6.6 pts · 4.4 reb · 0.6 ast Score 53

SCSTSmall

G K. Davis4.3 pts · 1.3 reb · 0.6 ast Score 19

F T. Tindal2.7 pts · 1.7 reb · 0.2 ast Score 12

CITSmall

F R. Bethea TR3.3 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.3 ast Score 32

SC StateBetterThe Citadel

SCST offense341st of 366 · -11.6

Even

CIT defense314th of 366 · -8.1

SCST defense351st of 366 · -9.8

Even

CIT offense343rd of 366 · -11.7

Backcourt-3.7 · 2 players

SCSTBig

Backcourt-7.1 · 4 players

Frontcourt-4.2 · 3 players

CITBig

Frontcourt-0.6 · 1 player

BenchNo numbers yet

No call

Bench-2.7 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestSCST betterCIT betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

SC State

Guards

D. Jackson23 min · TRN. Treadwell23 minB. JacksonNewM. TaylorNewB. HarrisNewC. BarnesNew

Forwards

D. Hodge18 minC. Parker18 minT. Tindal10 minJ. PrettyNewB. AdamsNewA. NGomabieNew

The Citadel

Guards

E. Bronson19 min · TRC. McKenzie16 min · TRM. Gonzales13 minK. Davis12 minC. Cormier9 min · TRJ. Heck2 min

Forwards

R. Bethea13 min · TRT. Mrus10 min · TRJ. Hurlburt9 min · TRC. Bonjasky6 minL. Menefee3 minA. Alexander1 min

Centers

Y. AnsongNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

SCST67.4 #325

CIT68.3 #309

Points per possession

SCST0.96 #353

CIT1.03 #283

Pace (possessions)

SCST70.3 #102

CIT66.1 #313

Shooting

Effective FG%

SCST46.8 #341

CIT49.5 #265

3-point %

SCST34.0 #173

CIT32.0 #283

3-point attempt rate

SCST33.3 #312

CIT47.8 #26

Free throw rate

SCST41.0 #47

CIT30.0 #309

Possessions

Turnover rate

SCST20.8 #355

CIT16.3 #156

Offensive rebound rate

SCST31.4 #146

CIT27.9 #270

Assists per game

SCST12.1 #281

CIT12.2 #272

Defense

Points allowed

SCST80.6 #327

CIT78.9 #293

Points allowed per possession

SCST1.15 #318

CIT1.20 #357

Opponent effective FG%

SCST53.9 #296

CIT57.5 #361

Opponent 3-point %

SCST33.5 #155

CIT36.6 #335

Turnovers forced

SCST18.8 #59

CIT14.8 #306

Defensive rebound rate

SCST62.4 #362

CIT68.5 #227

Steals per game

SCST6.9 #137

CIT5.2 #318

Blocks per game

SCST3.8 #98

CIT2.5 #304

SCST		CIT
Scoring
67.4 #325	Points per game	68.3 #309
0.96 #353	Points per possession	1.03 #283
70.3 #102	Pace (possessions)	66.1 #313
Shooting
46.8 #341	Effective FG%	49.5 #265
34.0 #173	3-point %	32.0 #283
33.3 #312	3-point attempt rate	47.8 #26
41.0 #47	Free throw rate	30.0 #309
Possessions
20.8 #355	Turnover rate	16.3 #156
31.4 #146	Offensive rebound rate	27.9 #270
12.1 #281	Assists per game	12.2 #272
Defense
80.6 #327	Points allowed	78.9 #293
1.15 #318	Points allowed per possession	1.20 #357
53.9 #296	Opponent effective FG%	57.5 #361
33.5 #155	Opponent 3-point %	36.6 #335
18.8 #59	Turnovers forced	14.8 #306
62.4 #362	Defensive rebound rate	68.5 #227
6.9 #137	Steals per game	5.2 #318
3.8 #98	Blocks per game	2.5 #304

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

SC State

8-22 in 2025-26 overall · 8-8 in conference · Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Howard61–78
Wvs Norfolk St88–82
W@ NC Central80–64
W@ Delaware St61–59
L@ MD Eastern57–69

A week or more of rest.

The Citadel

8-22 in 2025-26 overall · 8-12 in conference · Southern Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs ETSU76–83
Wvs Chattanooga88–85
W@ Wofford93–90
L@ Furman51–72
Lvs Chattanooga72–93

A week or more of rest.

South Carolina State Bulldogs at The Citadel Bulldogs

What could decide it

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

SC State

The Citadel

The Citadel has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

SC State

The Citadel