1. NCAAB
  2. Wed, Nov 11
  3. NCCU @ VMI
NCAAB · Wed, Nov 11

North Carolina Central Eagles at VMI Keydets

Cameron Hall · at VMI
#357NCCUNC Central
@
#320VMIVMI
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
NCCUThis seasonVMI
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects VMI 78–70 · win probability VMI 76%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 148.4
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: VMI has more of the edges

NCCU 2, VMI 3 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
VMISmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: NCCU 4%, VMI 59%. Transfers in: NCCU 4, VMI 1. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
NCCUSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: NCCU 39.3, VMI 30.6. Allowed: NCCU 36.9, VMI 34.6
VMISmall
VMI offense vs NCCU defense
Offense 288th of 366 against a defense 352nd, on the model’s ratings
NCCUSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: NCCU 30.0%, VMI 25.6%. Defensive: NCCU 60.6%, VMI 62.8%
Context
Schedule so far
NCCU has played the 310th-hardest schedule, VMI the 253rd. A record against a soft schedule means less
VMISmall
Home court
VMI at home. This season: VMI 0-0 at home, NCCU 0-0 away
Even
Three-pointers
NCCU hits 32.6% and allows 36.4%; VMI hits 31.5% and allows 36.5%. Threes are 33.9% and 53.6% of their shots
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: NCCU 47.5 and allows 54.5; VMI 47.5 and allows 57.0
Context
Tempo
About 67 possessions: NCCU plays 66.9 a game (282nd fastest), VMI 67.6 (251st). Faster games mean more points
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: NCCU 18.2%, VMI 15.3%. Forced: NCCU 19.8%, VMI 15.7%
Even
NCCU offense vs VMI defense
Offense 345th of 366 against a defense 342nd, on the model’s ratings
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—VMI -8.1—
Total—148.4—
Projected score—NCCU 70.1 · VMI 78.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadVMI -4.7—
1H total69.4—
1H projected scoreNCCU 32.4 · VMI 37—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

VMI has the better starters

Position by position: NC Central 1, VMI 2, even 2
NC CentralBetterVMI
G T. Brown TR3.3 pts · 2.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 11
VMISmall
G A. Clark6.6 pts · 5.3 reb · 1.5 ast Score 35
G R. Archey3.1 pts · 1 reb · 0.7 ast Not ranked
No call
G W. Andrews3.9 pts · 0.7 reb · 0.4 ast Score 20
F C. Meeks TR5.7 pts · 5.7 reb · 0.7 ast Score 6
VMIBig
F T. Johnson18.1 pts · 7 reb · 1.3 ast Score 75
F T. Mason TR5 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.1 ast Score 32
NCCUSmall
F C. Liston4.7 pts · 2.8 reb · 0.9 ast Score 2
F M. Vassel TR1.7 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked
No call
F A. Daushvili6.8 pts · 4.2 reb · 1 ast Not ranked
NC CentralBetterVMI
NCCU offense345th of 366 · -11.9
Even
VMI defense342nd of 366 · -9.1
NCCU defense352nd of 366 · -9.9
VMISmall
VMI offense288th of 366 · -8.9
Backcourt-2.4 · 2 players
Even
Backcourt-2.6 · 2 players
Frontcourt-5.2 · 3 players
VMIBig
Frontcourt-1.5 · 3 players
BenchNo numbers yet
No call
Bench-0.8 · 3 players
Score, worst to bestNCCU betterVMI betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
NC Central
Guards
T. Brown14 min · TRR. Archey8 minD. KaneNewC. SanonNewI. BuckleyNewA. BowserNew
Forwards
C. Meeks29 min · TRT. Mason12 min · TRM. Vassel8 min · TRJ. PriceNewD. DuorNew
Centers
D. MbaetekaNew
VMI
Guards
A. Clark27 minW. Andrews12 minT. Johnson9 min · TRB. Edmonds2 minM. Lawson2 minR. BradleyNew
Forwards
T. Johnson37 minC. Liston22 minA. Daushvili17 minR. PetersNewP. NarvilasNewJ. PanzoNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
NCCUVMI
Scoring
67.6 #322Points per game68.5 #306
1.02 #308Points per possession1.01 #311
66.9 #282Pace (possessions)67.6 #251
Shooting
47.5 #328Effective FG%47.5 #325
32.6 #2473-point %31.5 #306
33.9 #2993-point attempt rate53.6 #2
39.3 #72Free throw rate30.6 #293
Possessions
18.2 #285Turnover rate15.3 #88
30.0 #201Offensive rebound rate25.6 #330
12.1 #279Assists per game11.6 #309
Defense
77.3 #246Points allowed83.2 #348
1.15 #322Points allowed per possession1.23 #362
54.5 #317Opponent effective FG%57.0 #357
36.4 #321Opponent 3-point %36.5 #327
19.8 #27Turnovers forced15.7 #239
60.6 #364Defensive rebound rate62.8 #360
7.7 #60Steals per game6.6 #160
3.4 #165Blocks per game2.0 #343
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

NC Central

10-18 in 2025-26 overall · 10-7 in conference · Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Howard63–70
  • Wvs Delaware St59–53
  • Wvs MD Eastern83–76
  • Lvs SC State64–80
  • W@ MD Eastern77–73

A week or more of rest.

VMI

3-26 in 2025-26 overall · 1-18 in conference · Southern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs UNC Greensboro70–84
  • L@ Chattanooga79–86
  • L@ Samford61–80
  • Lvs W Carolina62–81
  • L@ Wofford76–82

A week or more of rest.