1. NCAAB
  2. Wed, Nov 18
  3. NCCU @ GMU
NCAAB · Wed, Nov 18

North Carolina Central Eagles at George Mason Patriots

EagleBank Arena · at George Mason
#357NCCUNC Central
@
#93GMUGeorge Mason
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
NCCUThis seasonGMU
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects GMU 85–59 · win probability GMU 99%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
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model 144.1
Model edge
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No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: GMU has more of the edges

NCCU 0, GMU 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
GMUBig
NCCU offense vs GMU defense
Offense 345th of 366 against a defense 64th, on the model’s ratings
GMUBig
GMU offense vs NCCU defense
Offense 106th of 366 against a defense 352nd, on the model’s ratings
GMUBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: NCCU 47.5 and allows 54.5; GMU 52.7 and allows 49.5
Context
Schedule so far
NCCU has played the 310th-hardest schedule, GMU the 118th. A record against a soft schedule means less
GMUBig
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: NCCU 30.0%, GMU 31.3%. Defensive: NCCU 60.6%, GMU 71.7%
GMUBig
Three-pointers
NCCU hits 32.6% and allows 36.4%; GMU hits 33.3% and allows 32.6%. Threes are 33.9% and 35.2% of their shots
GMUSmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: NCCU 39.3, GMU 41.1. Allowed: NCCU 36.9, GMU 28.9
GMUSmall
Home court
GMU at home. This season: GMU 0-0 at home, NCCU 0-0 away
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: NCCU 4%, GMU 24%. Transfers in: NCCU 4, GMU 8. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Context
Tempo
About 66 possessions: NCCU plays 66.9 a game (282nd fastest), GMU 64.7 (351st). Faster games mean more points
Even
Turnovers
Turnover rate: NCCU 18.2%, GMU 15.8%. Forced: NCCU 19.8%, GMU 15.5%
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
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Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—GMU -26.6—
Total—144.1—
Projected score—NCCU 58.8 · GMU 85.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadGMU -15.7—
1H total67.4—
1H projected scoreNCCU 25.9 · GMU 41.6—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

George Mason has the better starters

Position by position: NC Central 0, George Mason 3, even 2
NC CentralBetterGeorge Mason
G T. Brown TR3.3 pts · 2.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 11
GMUBig
G B. Okojie TR20.1 pts · 3 reb · 5.2 ast Score 91
G R. Archey3.1 pts · 1 reb · 0.7 ast Not ranked
No call
G M. Valentine TR13.1 pts · 5.2 reb · 1 ast Score 71
F C. Meeks TR5.7 pts · 5.7 reb · 0.7 ast Score 6
GMUSmall
G L. Marville TR9.5 pts · 2 reb · 2.2 ast Score 39
F T. Mason TR5 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.1 ast Score 32
GMUBig
F E. Jones TR12.9 pts · 5.4 reb · 0.6 ast Score 78
F M. Vassel TR1.7 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked
No call
F E. Adair TR14.8 pts · 5.3 reb · 0.9 ast Score 74
NC CentralBetterGeorge Mason
NCCU offense345th of 366 · -11.9
GMUBig
GMU defense64th of 366 · +1.1
NCCU defense352nd of 366 · -9.9
GMUBig
GMU offense106th of 366 · -1.5
Backcourt-2.4 · 2 players
GMUBig
Backcourt+2.6 · 3 players
Frontcourt-5.2 · 3 players
GMUBig
Frontcourt+2.9 · 2 players
BenchNo numbers yet
No call
Bench-1.6 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestNCCU betterGMU betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
NC Central
Guards
T. Brown14 min · TRR. Archey8 minD. KaneNewC. SanonNewI. BuckleyNewA. BowserNew
Forwards
C. Meeks29 min · TRT. Mason12 min · TRM. Vassel8 min · TRJ. PriceNewD. DuorNew
Centers
D. MbaetekaNew
George Mason
Guards
B. Okojie35 min · TRM. Valentine32 min · TRL. Marville26 min · TRE. Oliogu-Elabor16 min · TRM. Presley16 minB. O'Connor15 min
Forwards
E. Jones29 min · TRE. Adair26 min · TRM. Marcus24 min · TRE. Kanga13 minR. MendyNewS. PendergrassNew
Centers
J. Nnaji8 min · TR
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
NCCUGMU
Scoring
67.6 #322Points per game72.9 #227
1.02 #308Points per possession1.13 #93
66.9 #282Pace (possessions)64.7 #351
Shooting
47.5 #328Effective FG%52.7 #113
32.6 #2473-point %33.3 #214
33.9 #2993-point attempt rate35.2 #270
39.3 #72Free throw rate41.1 #44
Possessions
18.2 #285Turnover rate15.8 #121
30.0 #201Offensive rebound rate31.3 #149
12.1 #279Assists per game12.6 #243
Defense
77.3 #246Points allowed68.0 #31
1.15 #322Points allowed per possession1.05 #89
54.5 #317Opponent effective FG%49.5 #83
36.4 #321Opponent 3-point %32.6 #91
19.8 #27Turnovers forced15.5 #254
60.6 #364Defensive rebound rate71.7 #79
7.7 #60Steals per game5.0 #334
3.4 #165Blocks per game3.0 #228
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

NC Central

10-18 in 2025-26 overall · 10-7 in conference · Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Howard63–70
  • Wvs Delaware St59–53
  • Wvs MD Eastern83–76
  • Lvs SC State64–80
  • W@ MD Eastern77–73

A week or more of rest.

George Mason

22-10 in 2025-26 overall · 11-8 in conference · Atlantic 10 Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Liberty71–77
  • Lvs St Bonaventure57–63
  • Wvs Saint Louis86–57
  • L@ VCU65–70
  • Wvs St Bonaventure71–58

A week or more of rest.