1. NCAAB
  2. Wed, Nov 18
  3. UVM @ YALE
NCAAB · Wed, Nov 18

Vermont Catamounts at Yale Bulldogs

John J. Lee Amphitheater · at Yale
#186UVMVermont
@
#126YALEYale
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
UVMThis seasonYALE
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects YALE 77–67 · win probability YALE 80%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 144.2
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: YALE has more of the edges

UVM 0, YALE 6 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Schedule so far
UVM has played the 325th-hardest schedule, YALE the 141st. A record against a soft schedule means less
YALEBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: UVM 31.1, YALE 35.1. Allowed: UVM 36.4, YALE 26.8
YALEBig
UVM offense vs YALE defense
Offense 264th of 366 against a defense 136th, on the model’s ratings
YALEBig
Three-pointers
UVM hits 33.3% and allows 35.3%; YALE hits 39.4% and allows 35.0%. Threes are 44.6% and 36.1% of their shots
YALESmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: UVM 14.3%, YALE 14.0%. Forced: UVM 14.8%, YALE 16.2%
YALESmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: UVM 26.2%, YALE 34.2%. Defensive: UVM 77.0%, YALE 70.3%
YALESmall
Home court
YALE at home. This season: YALE 0-0 at home, UVM 0-0 away
Context
Tempo
About 66 possessions: UVM plays 65.2 a game (342nd fastest), YALE 66.4 (301st). Faster games mean more points
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: UVM 31%, YALE 42%. Transfers in: UVM 4, YALE 0. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
YALE offense vs UVM defense
Offense 125th of 366 against a defense 134th, on the model’s ratings
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: UVM 53.1 and allows 50.4; YALE 55.6 and allows 51.6
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—YALE -9.8—
Total—144.2—
Projected score—UVM 67.2 · YALE 77

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadYALE -5.7—
1H total67.5—
1H projected scoreUVM 30.9 · YALE 36.6—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Yale has the better starters

Position by position: Vermont 1, Yale 2, even 2
VermontBetterYale
G D. Yepdo TR10.6 pts · 3.2 reb · 3.3 ast Score 24
YALEBig
G T. Mullin11.8 pts · 2.4 reb · 2.6 ast Score 63
G J. Broom TR2 pts · 2.7 reb · 0.4 ast Score 14
YALESmall
G J. Brathwaite6.6 pts · 1.8 reb · 1 ast Score 35
G M. Nkugwa2.9 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.6 ast Score 31
No call
G C. Wallace1.2 pts · 0.6 reb · 0.6 ast Not ranked
F G. Yalden16.1 pts · 5.8 reb · 2.1 ast Score 96
UVMSmall
F R. Fox9.8 pts · 1.9 reb · 0.7 ast Score 76
F N. Barnett5.7 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.5 ast Score 41
No call
F J. Sullivan1.3 pts · 0.7 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked
VermontBetterYale
UVM offense264th of 366 · -8.1
YALEBig
YALE defense136th of 366 · -2.8
UVM defense134th of 366 · -2.5
Even
YALE offense125th of 366 · -3.3
Backcourt-5.2 · 3 players
YALEBig
Backcourt-1.1 · 3 players
Frontcourt+3.3 · 2 players
UVMSmall
Frontcourt+0.5 · 2 players
Bench-1.4 · 3 players
Even
Bench-0.5 · 4 players
Score, worst to bestUVM betterYALE betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Vermont
Guards
D. Yepdo32 min · TRJ. Broom15 min · TRM. Nkugwa13 minD. Glazkov13 min · TRK. Badru10 min · TRS. Clemons2 min
Forwards
G. Yalden26 minN. Barnett22 minM. BrunettoNewM. MasicNewS. GbiegbaNew
Yale
Guards
T. Mullin28 minJ. Brathwaite19 minC. Wallace4 minJ. Basima3 minA. Loving3 minJ. Tsai2 min
Forwards
R. Fox18 minJ. Sullivan5 minD. Ogunyemi3 minC. MayNewT. WinklerNewC. BolteNew
Centers
J. OwareNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
UVMYALE
Scoring
72.1 #237Points per game80.1 #64
1.11 #124Points per possession1.21 #10
65.2 #342Pace (possessions)66.4 #301
Shooting
53.1 #95Effective FG%55.6 #26
33.3 #2083-point %39.4 #3
44.6 #773-point attempt rate36.1 #247
31.1 #279Free throw rate35.1 #172
Possessions
14.3 #34Turnover rate14.0 #22
26.2 #318Offensive rebound rate34.2 #62
12.3 #266Assists per game15.8 #53
Defense
68.8 #44Points allowed71.8 #102
1.05 #96Points allowed per possession1.08 #166
50.4 #121Opponent effective FG%51.6 #192
35.3 #267Opponent 3-point %35.0 #250
14.8 #307Turnovers forced16.2 #207
77.0 #2Defensive rebound rate70.3 #147
4.5 #354Steals per game5.3 #314
2.7 #279Blocks per game3.2 #193
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Vermont

20-12 in 2025-26 overall · 14-5 in conference · America East Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ UMBC59–74
  • Wvs NJIT63–54
  • Wvs Bryant77–57
  • Wvs UAlbany69–56
  • Wvs UMass Lowell66–64

A week or more of rest.

Yale

22-7 in 2025-26 overall · 12-4 in conference · Ivy League

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs UNC Wilmington67–68
  • Lvs Penn84–88
  • Wvs Cornell88–76
  • Wvs Princeton78–53
  • W@ Columbia60–54

A week or more of rest.