1. NCAAB
  2. Mon, Nov 23
  3. YALE vs BEL
NCAAB · Mon, Nov 23

Yale Bulldogs vs Belmont Bruins

State Farm Field House · Neutral site
#126YALEYale
vs
#138BELBelmont
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
YALEThis seasonBEL
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects BEL 77–76 · win probability BEL 53%
Pick this game
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Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 152.6
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: YALE has more of the edges

YALE 4, BEL 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
Context
Tempo
About 68 possessions: YALE plays 66.4 a game (301st fastest), BEL 70.5 (94th). Faster games mean more points
YALESmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: YALE 14.0%, BEL 18.0%. Forced: YALE 16.2%, BEL 17.4%
YALESmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: YALE 34.2%, BEL 28.8%. Defensive: YALE 70.3%, BEL 70.8%
YALESmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: YALE 35.1, BEL 32.5. Allowed: YALE 26.8, BEL 30.7
YALESmall
YALE offense vs BEL defense
Offense 125th of 366 against a defense 192nd, on the model’s ratings
BELSmall
Shooting
Effective FG%: YALE 55.6 and allows 51.6; BEL 61.0 and allows 49.9
Even
Three-pointers
YALE hits 39.4% and allows 35.0%; BEL hits 41.0% and allows 34.2%. Threes are 36.1% and 45.7% of their shots
Even
BEL offense vs YALE defense
Offense 118th of 366 against a defense 136th, on the model’s ratings
Context
Neutral floor
No home court: the model takes it out of the line
Context
Schedule so far
YALE has played the 141st-hardest schedule, BEL the 146th. A record against a soft schedule means less
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: YALE 42%, BEL 41%. Transfers in: YALE 0, BEL 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—BEL -0.8—
Total—152.6—
Projected score—YALE 75.9 · BEL 76.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadBEL -0.4—
1H total71.3—
1H projected scoreYALE 35.5 · BEL 35.9—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Yale has the better starters

Position by position: Yale 2, Belmont 1, even 2
YaleBetterBelmont
G T. Mullin11.8 pts · 2.4 reb · 2.6 ast Score 63
YALESmall
G J. Jenkins8.8 pts · 4.5 reb · 1.2 ast Score 42
G J. Brathwaite6.6 pts · 1.8 reb · 1 ast Score 35
BELBig
G J. Smiley8.5 pts · 1.9 reb · 2.6 ast Score 81
G C. Wallace1.2 pts · 0.6 reb · 0.6 ast Not ranked
No call
G I. West2.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 1.8 ast Score 7
F R. Fox9.8 pts · 1.9 reb · 0.7 ast Score 76
YALESmall
F K. Fish TR7.2 pts · 3.3 reb · 0.5 ast Score 47
F J. Sullivan1.3 pts · 0.7 reb · 0.2 ast Not ranked
No call
F E. Dillon7.8 pts · 2.5 reb · 1.5 ast Score 76
YaleBetterBelmont
YALE offense125th of 366 · -3.3
YALESmall
BEL defense192nd of 366 · -4.5
YALE defense136th of 366 · -2.8
Even
BEL offense118th of 366 · -2.7
Backcourt-1.1 · 3 players
YALESmall
Backcourt-2.4 · 3 players
Frontcourt+0.5 · 2 players
Even
Frontcourt+0.5 · 2 players
Bench-0.5 · 4 players
Even
Bench-0.6 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestYALE betterBEL betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Yale
Guards
T. Mullin28 minJ. Brathwaite19 minC. Wallace4 minJ. Basima3 minA. Loving3 minJ. Tsai2 min
Forwards
R. Fox18 minJ. Sullivan5 minD. Ogunyemi3 minC. MayNewT. WinklerNewC. BolteNew
Centers
J. OwareNew
Belmont
Guards
J. Jenkins24 minJ. Smiley17 minI. West17 minM. Zobrist5 min · TRC. Haynes5 minA. Ristic3 min · TR
Forwards
K. Fish19 min · TRE. Dillon16 minG. Lemke2 minC. KnowlesNewC. GersmehlNew
Centers
V. Neugebauer8 min · TR
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
YALEBEL
Scoring
80.1 #64Points per game83.5 #23
1.21 #10Points per possession1.18 #33
66.4 #301Pace (possessions)70.5 #94
Shooting
55.6 #26Effective FG%61.0 #1
39.4 #33-point %41.0 #1
36.1 #2473-point attempt rate45.7 #51
35.1 #172Free throw rate32.5 #248
Possessions
14.0 #22Turnover rate18.0 #272
34.2 #62Offensive rebound rate28.8 #241
15.8 #53Assists per game18.5 #6
Defense
71.8 #102Points allowed74.1 #158
1.08 #166Points allowed per possession1.05 #95
51.6 #192Opponent effective FG%49.9 #93
35.0 #250Opponent 3-point %34.2 #197
16.2 #207Turnovers forced17.4 #126
70.3 #147Defensive rebound rate70.8 #118
5.3 #314Steals per game6.0 #241
3.2 #193Blocks per game3.5 #151
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Yale

22-7 in 2025-26 overall · 12-4 in conference · Ivy League

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs UNC Wilmington67–68
  • Lvs Penn84–88
  • Wvs Cornell88–76
  • Wvs Princeton78–53
  • W@ Columbia60–54

A week or more of rest.

Belmont

25-6 in 2025-26 overall · 16-5 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Drake79–100
  • L@ Illinois St74–81
  • Wvs Evansville98–64
  • Wvs Indiana St87–70
  • W@ Murray St87–70

A week or more of rest.