Tulane Green Wave vs Georgia State Panthers: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 23, 4:00 PM ETSuncoast Credit Union Arena · Neutral site

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Tulane and Georgia St
TULN	This season	GAST
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects TULN 77–72 · win probability TULN 67%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 149.6

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: TULN has more of the edges

TULN 3, GAST 1 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

Context

Schedule so far

TULN has played the 115th-hardest schedule, GAST the 232nd. A record against a soft schedule means less

TULNSmall

TULN offense vs GAST defense

Offense 114th of 366 against a defense 205th, on the model’s ratings

TULNSmall

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: TULN 40%, GAST 4%. Transfers in: TULN 4, GAST 10. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

GASTSmall

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: TULN 22.8%, GAST 27.7%. Defensive: TULN 64.2%, GAST 66.4%

TULNSmall

Turnovers

Turnover rate: TULN 15.4%, GAST 15.9%. Forced: TULN 17.1%, GAST 16.4%

Even

Shooting

Effective FG%: TULN 49.4 and allows 50.7; GAST 44.2 and allows 50.6

Even

GAST offense vs TULN defense

Offense 214th of 366 against a defense 180th, on the model’s ratings

Even

Three-pointers

TULN hits 32.0% and allows 34.5%; GAST hits 30.6% and allows 33.1%. Threes are 45.0% and 42.4% of their shots

Context

Tempo

About 69 possessions: TULN plays 68.5 a game (205th fastest), GAST 69.1 (176th). Faster games mean more points

Even

Free throws

Free throw rate: TULN 43.5, GAST 37.2. Allowed: TULN 38.1, GAST 34.9

Context

Neutral floor

No home court: the model takes it out of the line

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	TULN -5.2	—
Total	—	149.6	—
Projected score	—	TULN 77.4 · GAST 72.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	TULN -3.2	—
1H total	70.0	—
1H projected score	TULN 36.6 · GAST 33.4	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
TULN LLWWL	15-17	47%	2-3	—
GAST WLLLL	13-17	43%	0-3	—

Venue/role: TULN neutral site; GAST neutral site. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
TULN UOOUU	13-19	41%	17-15
GAST UOOOO	14-16	47%	8-22

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TULN	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
GAST	1-9 10%	3-7 30%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Tulane

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 25	vs DAV	No recent meeting
Nov 29	vs ULM	W80–64WU
Dec 2	@ USM	W86–58WU

Georgia St

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 25	vs FGCU	No recent meeting
Dec 1	vs MER	L67–78LU
Dec 5	@ ULM	W77–57WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Tulane

32 games played

Straight up

17-15

53% wins

Against the spread

15-17

47% covers · avg −2.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-19

41% overs · avg −1.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

17-1553%

W W W L L W W W L L W W W W W L L L L L W L W W W W L L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

15-1747%

W L L L L W W L L L W L W W W L L W L L W L W W W W L L L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

13-1941%

O O U U O O O U U O U U O U U U U U U O O U U U O O U U O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsSAM	W 85-72	-7.5	W +5.5	154.5	O 157
Nov 8	vsTXST	W 79-71	-12.5	L −4.5	146.5	O 150
Nov 11	@UL	W 66-62	-5.5	L −1.5	135.5	U 128
Nov 14	vsNOLA	L 63-85	-11.5	L −33.5	153.5	U 148
Nov 21	vsUSU	L 75-96	+8.5	L −12.5	151.5	O 171
Nov 23	vsBC	W 93-90	+2.5	W +5.5	140.5	O 183
Nov 28	vsNICH	W 82-72	-8.5	W +1.5	148.5	O 154
Dec 2	vsGRAM	W 65-63	-11.5	L −9.5	148.5	U 128
Dec 6	vsAKR	L 71-88	+6.5	L −10.5	162.5	U 159
Dec 13	vsUCSD	L 67-93	+5.5	L −20.5	149.5	O 160
Dec 17	vsLT	W 61-53	-4.5	W +3.5	140.5	U 114
Dec 20	vsPRST	W 63-61	-2.5	L −0.5	145.5	U 124
Dec 31	@ECU	W 79-70	-1.5	W +7.5	145.5	O 149
Jan 4	vsFAU	W 69-66	+3.5	W +6.5	158.5	U 135
Jan 10	@UTSA	W 85-52	-7.5	W +25.5	147.5	U 137
Jan 14	vsUAB	L 69-82	+1.5	L −11.5	153.5	U 151
Jan 18	vsUNT	L 63-71	-1.5	L −9.5	137.5	U 134
Jan 21	@FAU	L 74-79	+10.5	W +5.5	155.5	U 153
Jan 23	@CLT	L 70-73	+2.5	L −0.5	143.5	U 143
Jan 28	vsUSF	L 83-97	+8.5	L −5.5	158.5	O 180
Feb 1	@MEM	W 78-76	+8.5	W +10.5	151.5	O 154
Feb 8	vsWICH	L 61-75	+5.5	L −8.5	148.5	U 136
Feb 11	vsTEM	W 77-66	-1.5	W +9.5	144.5	U 143
Feb 15	@UAB	W 55-54	+6.5	W +7.5	152.5	U 109
Feb 19	@UNT	W 77-71	+6.5	W +12.5	137.5	O 148
Feb 22	vsRICE	W 81-75	-4.5	W +1.5	147.5	O 156
Feb 25	vsTLSA	L 56-90	+5.5	L −28.5	156.5	U 146
Mar 1	@USF	L 62-90	+15.5	L −12.5	155.5	U 152
Mar 5	@TEM	L 60-89	+4.5	L −24.5	144.5	O 149
Mar 8	vsMEM	L 95-96	+2.5	W +1.5	154.5	O 191
Mar 11	vsMEM	W 81-69	+4.5	W +16.5	151.5	U 150
Mar 12	vsCLT	L 60-74	+1.5	L −12.5	144.5	U 134

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SAM

W 85-72

+5.5

TXST

W 79-71

−4.5

W 66-62

−1.5

NOLA

L 63-85

−33.5

USU

L 75-96

−12.5

W 93-90

+5.5

NICH

W 82-72

+1.5

GRAM

W 65-63

−9.5

AKR

L 71-88

−10.5

UCSD

L 67-93

−20.5

W 61-53

+3.5

PRST

W 63-61

−0.5

ECU

W 79-70

+7.5

FAU

W 69-66

+6.5

UTSA

W 85-52

+25.5

UAB

L 69-82

−11.5

UNT

L 63-71

−9.5

FAU

L 74-79

+5.5

CLT

L 70-73

−0.5

USF

L 83-97

−5.5

MEM

W 78-76

+10.5

WICH

L 61-75

−8.5

TEM

W 77-66

+9.5

UAB

W 55-54

+7.5

UNT

W 77-71

+12.5

RICE

W 81-75

+1.5

TLSA

L 56-90

−28.5

USF

L 62-90

−12.5

TEM

L 60-89

−24.5

MEM

L 95-96

+1.5

MEM

W 81-69

+16.5

CLT

L 60-74

−12.5

covered 15didn’t cover 17avg −2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SAM

W 85-72

+2.5

TXST

W 79-71

+3.5

W 66-62

−7.5

NOLA

L 63-85

−5.5

USU

L 75-96

+19.5

W 93-90

+42.5

NICH

W 82-72

+5.5

GRAM

W 65-63

−20.5

AKR

L 71-88

−3.5

UCSD

L 67-93

+10.5

W 61-53

−26.5

PRST

W 63-61

−21.5

ECU

W 79-70

+3.5

FAU

W 69-66

−23.5

UTSA

W 85-52

−10.5

UAB

L 69-82

−2.5

UNT

L 63-71

−3.5

FAU

L 74-79

−2.5

CLT

L 70-73

−0.5

USF

L 83-97

+21.5

MEM

W 78-76

+2.5

WICH

L 61-75

−12.5

TEM

W 77-66

−1.5

UAB

W 55-54

−43.5

UNT

W 77-71

+10.5

RICE

W 81-75

+8.5

TLSA

L 56-90

−10.5

USF

L 62-90

−3.5

TEM

L 60-89

+4.5

MEM

L 95-96

+36.5

MEM

W 81-69

−1.5

CLT

L 60-74

−10.5

over 13under 19avg −1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Georgia St

30 games played

Straight up

8-22

27% wins

Against the spread

13-17

43% covers · avg −1.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

14-16

47% overs · avg −2.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

8-2227%

L L L L L L L L L W L W L W L W W W W L L L L L L W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

13-1743%

L W L W L L L L L W L W W W L W W W W L W L L W L W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

14-1647%

U U U U O U U U O O U U O O U O U U O O U U O O U U O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@EMU	L 49-71	+3.5	L −18.5	149.5	U 120
Nov 7	@CIN	L 64-74	+29.5	W +19.5	151.5	U 138
Nov 10	vsPRES	L 61-63	-3.5	L −5.5	141.5	U 124
Nov 17	@ASU	L 62-75	+18.5	W +5.5	145.5	U 137
Nov 21	@SDST	L 58-105	+12.5	L −34.5	143.5	O 163
Nov 25	vsSAM	L 63-78	+5.5	L −9.5	146.5	U 141
Nov 26	vsNMSU	L 58-77	+12.5	L −6.5	136.5	U 135
Dec 2	@MER	L 67-78	+10.5	L −0.5	155.5	U 145
Dec 6	@KENN	L 69-92	+14.5	L −8.5	158.5	O 161
Dec 13	vsJXST	W 77-73	+3.5	W +7.5	139.5	O 150
Dec 18	@GASO	L 67-90	+9.5	L −13.5	159.5	U 157
Dec 20	@APP	W 70-63	+7.5	W +14.5	137.5	U 133
Dec 31	@MRSH	L 80-84	+13.5	W +9.5	151.5	O 164
Jan 3	@CCU	W 89-71	+6.5	W +24.5	148.5	O 160
Jan 8	vsAPP	L 50-52	+1.5	L −0.5	140.5	U 102
Jan 10	vsMRSH	W 81-73	+4.5	W +12.5	153.5	O 154
Jan 17	@ULM	W 77-57	-6.5	W +13.5	155.5	U 134
Jan 22	vsUSM	W 69-62	-1.5	W +5.5	144.5	U 131
Jan 24	vsARST	W 82-81	+4.5	W +5.5	157.5	O 163
Jan 29	@UL	L 72-82	-1.5	L −11.5	129.5	O 154
Jan 31	@USA	L 67-69	+5.5	W +3.5	140.5	U 136
Feb 4	vsTROY	L 63-74	+6.5	L −4.5	144.5	U 137
Feb 7	vsNIU	L 74-75	-4.5	L −5.5	143.5	O 149
Feb 12	@JMU	L 79-81	+5.5	W +3.5	144.5	O 160
Feb 14	@ODU	L 55-78	+3.5	L −19.5	147.5	U 133
Feb 19	vsGASO	W 66-64	+1.5	W +3.5	154.5	U 130
Feb 21	vsJMU	L 65-80	+2.5	L −12.5	142.5	O 145
Feb 24	vsCCU	L 71-76	+1.5	L −3.5	141.5	O 147
Feb 27	vsODU	L 73-81	+1.5	L −6.5	149.5	O 154
Mar 3	vsUL	L 75-84	-1.5	L −10.5	134.5	O 159

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

EMU

L 49-71

−18.5

CIN

L 64-74

+19.5

PRES

L 61-63

−5.5

ASU

L 62-75

+5.5

SDST

L 58-105

−34.5

SAM

L 63-78

−9.5

NMSU

L 58-77

−6.5

MER

L 67-78

−0.5

KENN

L 69-92

−8.5

JXST

W 77-73

+7.5

GASO

L 67-90

−13.5

APP

W 70-63

+14.5

MRSH

L 80-84

+9.5

CCU

W 89-71

+24.5

APP

L 50-52

−0.5

MRSH

W 81-73

+12.5

ULM

W 77-57

+13.5

USM

W 69-62

+5.5

ARST

W 82-81

+5.5

L 72-82

−11.5

USA

L 67-69

+3.5

TROY

L 63-74

−4.5

NIU

L 74-75

−5.5

JMU

L 79-81

+3.5

ODU

L 55-78

−19.5

GASO

W 66-64

+3.5

JMU

L 65-80

−12.5

CCU

L 71-76

−3.5

ODU

L 73-81

−6.5

L 75-84

−10.5

covered 13didn’t cover 17avg −1.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

EMU

L 49-71

−29.5

CIN

L 64-74

−13.5

PRES

L 61-63

−17.5

ASU

L 62-75

−8.5

SDST

L 58-105

+19.5

SAM

L 63-78

−5.5

NMSU

L 58-77

−1.5

MER

L 67-78

−10.5

KENN

L 69-92

+2.5

JXST

W 77-73

+10.5

GASO

L 67-90

−2.5

APP

W 70-63

−4.5

MRSH

L 80-84

+12.5

CCU

W 89-71

+11.5

APP

L 50-52

−38.5

MRSH

W 81-73

+0.5

ULM

W 77-57

−21.5

USM

W 69-62

−13.5

ARST

W 82-81

+5.5

L 72-82

+24.5

USA

L 67-69

−4.5

TROY

L 63-74

−7.5

NIU

L 74-75

+5.5

JMU

L 79-81

+15.5

ODU

L 55-78

−14.5

GASO

W 66-64

−24.5

JMU

L 65-80

+2.5

CCU

L 71-76

+5.5

ODU

L 73-81

+4.5

L 75-84

+24.5

over 14under 16avg −2.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Tulane has the better starters

Position by position: Tulane 2, Georgia St 1, even 2

TulaneBetterGeorgia St

G K. Lewis TR18.8 pts · 4.6 reb · 3.1 ast Score 65

Even

G J. Jackson TR12.3 pts · 4.3 reb · 2.6 ast Score 51

G T. Nadeau TR13.5 pts · 3.1 reb · 1.1 ast Score 73

TULNSmall

G J. Meyer TR12.4 pts · 3.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 51

F T. Ringgold9.6 pts · 4 reb · 1.4 ast Score 57

TULNSmall

G E. Parnell TR11 pts · 2.2 reb · 0.6 ast Score 40

F C. Schwieger10.4 pts · 3.2 reb · 0.8 ast Score 32

GASTBig

F T. Dixon TR9.3 pts · 4.5 reb · 0.5 ast Score 75

F J. Chappelle TR6.8 pts · 5.1 reb · 0.5 ast Score 37

Even

F J. Sirtautas TR5.9 pts · 3.2 reb · 0.6 ast Score 37

TulaneBetterGeorgia St

TULN offense114th of 366 · -2.4

TULNSmall

GAST defense205th of 366 · -5.0

TULN defense180th of 366 · -4.1

Even

GAST offense214th of 366 · -6.5

Backcourt+1.1 · 2 players

TULNBig

Backcourt-2.3 · 3 players

Frontcourt-2.2 · 3 players

GASTSmall

Frontcourt+0.3 · 2 players

Bench-1.1 · 5 players

TULNSmall

Bench-3.7 · 5 players

Score, worst to bestTULN betterGAST betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Tulane

Guards

K. Lewis36 min · TRT. Nadeau27 min · TRK. Greene15 minJ. Moore12 minR. Moore2 minR. BlountNew

Forwards

T. Ringgold25 minC. Schwieger25 minJ. Chappelle24 min · TRJ. Dumont2 min · TRL. Cronin2 min

Centers

D. SalaneNew

Georgia St

Guards

J. Jackson33 min · TRJ. Meyer29 min · TRE. Parnell26 min · TRZ. Wilburn17 min · TRA. Smith15 min · TRD. Thomas14 min · TR

Forwards

T. Dixon22 min · TRJ. Sirtautas20 min · TRJ. Fredson-Cole19 min · TRO. WilsonNewK. JacksonNew

Centers

M. Nicholson4 min · TR

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

TULN72.0 #239

GAST68.4 #307

Points per possession

TULN1.05 #245

GAST0.99 #335

Pace (possessions)

TULN68.5 #205

GAST69.1 #176

Shooting

Effective FG%

TULN49.4 #275

GAST44.2 #362

3-point %

TULN32.0 #279

GAST30.6 #329

3-point attempt rate

TULN45.0 #68

GAST42.4 #129

Free throw rate

TULN43.5 #14

GAST37.2 #124

Possessions

Turnover rate

TULN15.4 #99

GAST15.9 #132

Offensive rebound rate

TULN22.8 #352

GAST27.7 #278

Assists per game

TULN12.6 #244

GAST11.1 #334

Defense

Points allowed

TULN75.7 #208

GAST75.4 #203

Points allowed per possession

TULN1.11 #229

GAST1.09 #202

Opponent effective FG%

TULN50.7 #140

GAST50.6 #135

Opponent 3-point %

TULN34.5 #216

GAST33.1 #132

Turnovers forced

TULN17.1 #139

GAST16.4 #197

Defensive rebound rate

TULN64.2 #352

GAST66.4 #312

Steals per game

TULN7.5 #85

GAST6.7 #149

Blocks per game

TULN4.5 #38

GAST3.0 #212

TULN		GAST
Scoring
72.0 #239	Points per game	68.4 #307
1.05 #245	Points per possession	0.99 #335
68.5 #205	Pace (possessions)	69.1 #176
Shooting
49.4 #275	Effective FG%	44.2 #362
32.0 #279	3-point %	30.6 #329
45.0 #68	3-point attempt rate	42.4 #129
43.5 #14	Free throw rate	37.2 #124
Possessions
15.4 #99	Turnover rate	15.9 #132
22.8 #352	Offensive rebound rate	27.7 #278
12.6 #244	Assists per game	11.1 #334
Defense
75.7 #208	Points allowed	75.4 #203
1.11 #229	Points allowed per possession	1.09 #202
50.7 #140	Opponent effective FG%	50.6 #135
34.5 #216	Opponent 3-point %	33.1 #132
17.1 #139	Turnovers forced	16.4 #197
64.2 #352	Defensive rebound rate	66.4 #312
7.5 #85	Steals per game	6.7 #149
4.5 #38	Blocks per game	3.0 #212

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Tulane

17-15 in 2025-26 overall · 9-11 in conference · American Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Charlotte60–74
Wvs Memphis81–69
Lvs Memphis95–96
L@ Temple60–89
L@ South Florida62–90

A week or more of rest.

Georgia St

8-22 in 2025-26 overall · 7-12 in conference · Sun Belt Conference

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Louisiana75–84
Lvs Old Dominion73–81
Lvs Coastal71–76
Lvs James Madison65–80
Wvs GA Southern66–64

A week or more of rest.

Tulane Green Wave vs Georgia State Panthers

What could decide it: TULN has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Tulane

Georgia St

Tulane has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Tulane

Georgia St