1. NCAAB
  2. Wed, Nov 18
  3. MORE @ OHIO
NCAAB · Wed, Nov 18

Morehead State Eagles at Ohio Bobcats

Convocation Center (OH) · at Ohio
#350MOREMorehead St
@
#128OHIOOhio
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
MOREThis seasonOHIO
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects OHIO 86–69 · win probability OHIO 93%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 155.1
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: OHIO has more of the edges

MORE 3, OHIO 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
OHIOBig
OHIO offense vs MORE defense
Offense 81st of 366 against a defense 333rd, on the model’s ratings
Context
Schedule so far
MORE has played the 346th-hardest schedule, OHIO the 162nd. A record against a soft schedule means less
OHIOBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: MORE 18.1%, OHIO 15.4%. Forced: MORE 15.4%, OHIO 16.2%
Context
Tempo
About 69 possessions: MORE plays 67.4 a game (262nd fastest), OHIO 71.0 (78th). Faster games mean more points
MORESmall
Three-pointers
MORE hits 32.0% and allows 34.5%; OHIO hits 30.1% and allows 36.8%. Threes are 30.5% and 38.1% of their shots
OHIOSmall
MORE offense vs OHIO defense
Offense 349th of 366 against a defense 260th, on the model’s ratings
MORESmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: MORE 35.8%, OHIO 28.4%. Defensive: MORE 64.2%, OHIO 67.2%
OHIOSmall
Home court
OHIO at home. This season: OHIO 0-0 at home, MORE 0-0 away
MORESmall
Free throws
Free throw rate: MORE 37.7, OHIO 36.9. Allowed: MORE 35.6, OHIO 38.2
Even
Shooting
Effective FG%: MORE 49.1 and allows 50.2; OHIO 51.0 and allows 53.0
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: MORE 29%, OHIO 41%. Transfers in: MORE 0, OHIO 2. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—OHIO -16.8—
Total—155.1—
Projected score—MORE 69.1 · OHIO 85.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadOHIO -9.9—
1H total72.5—
1H projected scoreMORE 31.3 · OHIO 41.2—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Ohio has the better starters

Position by position: Morehead St 0, Ohio 3, even 2
Morehead StBetterOhio
G C. Dawson8.1 pts · 1.4 reb · 2.7 ast Score 22
OHIOBig
G J. Paveletzke17.8 pts · 3 reb · 5.1 ast Score 89
G V. Dawson3.3 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.4 ast Score 7
OHIOBig
G K. D'Augustino TR19.2 pts · 3.4 reb · 3.3 ast Score 79
G J. Winkleman1 pts · 0 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
No call
G K. Mitchell TR13.6 pts · 3.4 reb · 3.6 ast Score 76
G I. Day NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
No call
G J. Burris3.1 pts · 1 reb · 0.1 ast Score 11
F C. Parker2.7 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.8 ast Score 1
OHIOBig
F J. Simmons15.4 pts · 5.8 reb · 1.6 ast Score 90
Morehead StBetterOhio
MORE offense349th of 366 · -12.3
OHIOSmall
OHIO defense260th of 366 · -6.7
MORE defense333rd of 366 · -8.7
OHIOBig
OHIO offense81st of 366 · +0.5
Backcourt-4.4 · 4 players
OHIOBig
Backcourt+4.4 · 4 players
Frontcourt-2.7 · 1 player
OHIOBig
Frontcourt+3.0 · 1 player
BenchNo numbers yet
No call
Bench-0.4 · 1 player
Score, worst to bestMORE betterOHIO betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Morehead St
Guards
C. Dawson26 minV. Dawson16 minJ. Winkleman1 minI. DayNewK. CarbonNewK. ShawNew
Forwards
C. Parker16 minD. AlexanderNewL. BassNewT. TangioraNewJ. PriesterNew
Ohio
Guards
J. Paveletzke37 minK. D'Augustino33 min · TRK. Mitchell31 min · TRJ. Burris10 minC. ReeseNewS. LedegenNew
Forwards
J. Simmons28 minK. Kuany8 minZ. MosleyNewC. TrudicNewJ. BowensNewD. MakitanNew
Centers
M. IckeNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
MOREOHIO
Scoring
72.0 #243Points per game76.7 #126
1.07 #202Points per possession1.08 #194
67.4 #262Pace (possessions)71.0 #78
Shooting
49.1 #285Effective FG%51.0 #197
32.0 #2813-point %30.1 #341
30.5 #3493-point attempt rate38.1 #211
37.7 #109Free throw rate36.9 #132
Possessions
18.1 #275Turnover rate15.4 #97
35.8 #27Offensive rebound rate28.4 #248
12.0 #285Assists per game12.6 #242
Defense
75.5 #205Points allowed80.0 #319
1.12 #264Points allowed per possession1.13 #295
50.2 #109Opponent effective FG%53.0 #269
34.5 #221Opponent 3-point %36.8 #340
15.4 #259Turnovers forced16.2 #213
64.2 #351Defensive rebound rate67.2 #289
6.0 #234Steals per game5.7 #267
3.0 #213Blocks per game3.4 #163
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Morehead St

17-13 in 2025-26 overall · 16-6 in conference · Ohio Valley Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Tennessee St67–93
  • Wvs SE Missouri66–61
  • W@ Little Rock76–70
  • Wvs Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles64–63
  • W@ W Illinois81–59

A week or more of rest.

Ohio

13-17 in 2025-26 overall · 9-10 in conference · Mid-American Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Kent State75–86
  • Lvs Miami OH108–110
  • L@ UMass82–94
  • Lvs Toledo67–79
  • W@ N Illinois74–66

A week or more of rest.