Brown Bears at Vermont Catamounts: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 21, 7:00 PM ETPatrick Gymnasium · at Vermont

#156BRWNBrown

LineNo line yet

Total—

Season records: Brown and Vermont
BRWN	This season	UVM
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects UVM 70–69 · win probability UVM 53%

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Winner

Line

—

no line yet

Total

—

model 138.6

Model edge

—

No market line yet

Public

—

No split yet for this game

The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: UVM has more of the edges

BRWN 2, UVM 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games

Context

Schedule so far

BRWN has played the 176th-hardest schedule, UVM the 325th. A record against a soft schedule means less

BRWNBig

UVM offense vs BRWN defense

Offense 264th of 366 against a defense 124th, on the model’s ratings

UVMBig

Shooting

Effective FG%: BRWN 48.6 and allows 51.3; UVM 53.1 and allows 50.4

BRWNBig

Who is back

Minutes back from last season: BRWN 100%, UVM 31%. Transfers in: BRWN 0, UVM 4. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price

UVMSmall

BRWN offense vs UVM defense

Offense 220th of 366 against a defense 134th, on the model’s ratings

Context

Tempo

About 67 possessions: BRWN plays 68.0 a game (229th fastest), UVM 65.2 (342nd). Faster games mean more points

UVMSmall

Home court

UVM at home. This season: UVM 0-0 at home, BRWN 0-0 away

UVMSmall

Free throws

Free throw rate: BRWN 28.1, UVM 31.1. Allowed: BRWN 37.6, UVM 36.4

Even

Rebounding

Offensive rebound rate: BRWN 29.0%, UVM 26.2%. Defensive: BRWN 70.0%, UVM 77.0%

Even

Turnovers

Turnover rate: BRWN 19.4%, UVM 14.3%. Forced: BRWN 18.8%, UVM 14.8%

Even

Three-pointers

BRWN hits 30.3% and allows 33.5%; UVM hits 33.3% and allows 35.3%. Threes are 36.3% and 44.6% of their shots

Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge
Spread	—	UVM -0.8	—
Total	—	138.6	—
Projected score	—	BRWN 68.9 · UVM 69.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UVM -0.3	—
1H total	64.9	—
1H projected score	BRWN 32.3 · UVM 32.6	—

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2025-26 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BRWN WWLWL	13-12	52%	8-5	—
UVM LWWLL	14-18	44%	8-6	—

Venue/role: BRWN away; UVM home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2025-26 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
BRWN OOOOU	13-12	52%	7-18
UVM UUOUU	17-15	53%	20-12

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BRWN	2-8 20%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
UVM	8-2 80%	4-6 40%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Brown

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 28	@ AF	No recent meeting
Dec 1	@ URI	L56–66WU
Dec 4	@ BRY	W75–56WO

Vermont

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 24	@ SIE	W83–69WO
Nov 27	vs MRMK	W66–59WU
Nov 28	vs COLG	L60–65LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

BRWN 1–4 UVMUVM leads · 5 games since 2021-22 · BRWN 3-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 9, 2025-26	UVM 89 @ BRWN 84	BRWN +5.5	BRWN W
Dec 3, 2024-25	BRWN 60 @ UVM 53	UVM -5.5	BRWN W
Jan 2, 2023-24	UVM 71 @ BRWN 70	BRWN +3.5	BRWN W
Nov 7, 2022-23	BRWN 65 @ UVM 80	UVM -12.5	UVM W
Dec 10, 2021-22	UVM 70 @ BRWN 65	BRWN +3.5	UVM W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Brown

25 games played

Straight up

7-18

28% wins

Against the spread

13-12

52% covers · avg −1.6 pts vs the line

Over / Under

13-12

52% overs · avg +0.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

7-1828%

L L L L W L W W L W L L L W L L L L L L W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

13-1252%

L W L L W L W W W W W L L W L L L L W W W W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

13-1252%

U O O U U O U U U O O U O O U U U O O U O O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	vsSIE	L 46-62	+3.5	L −12.5	142.5	U 108
Nov 9	vsUVM	L 84-89	+5.5	W +0.5	131.5	O 173
Nov 12	@BU	L 77-90	+3.5	L −9.5	129.5	O 167
Nov 14	vsHAMP	L 63-72	-1.5	L −10.5	139.5	U 135
Nov 18	vsHC	W 68-49	-2.5	W +16.5	141.5	U 117
Nov 20	@STBK	L 70-80	+3.5	L −6.5	136.5	O 150
Nov 23	@ME	W 58-53	-1.5	W +3.5	127.5	U 111
Nov 26	@UNH	W 59-47	-5.5	W +6.5	136.5	U 106
Dec 2	@URI	L 56-66	+13.5	W +3.5	138.5	U 122
Dec 5	vsBRY	W 75-56	-6.5	W +12.5	130.5	O 131
Dec 9	@PROV	L 79-86	+19.5	W +12.5	145.5	O 165
Jan 5	vsYALE	L 53-70	+8.5	L −8.5	142.5	U 123
Jan 10	@PENN	L 73-81	+5.5	L −2.5	145.5	O 154
Jan 17	vsCOLU	W 86-80	+2.5	W +8.5	143.5	O 166
Jan 19	vsCOR	L 67-89	+2.5	L −19.5	163.5	U 156
Jan 24	@PRIN	L 53-63	+4.5	L −5.5	134.5	U 116
Jan 30	vsHARV	L 59-69	+1.5	L −8.5	132.5	U 128
Jan 31	vsDART	L 70-77	-1.5	L −8.5	142.5	O 147
Feb 6	@YALE	L 69-81	+15.5	W +3.5	140.5	O 150
Feb 13	@HARV	L 53-56	+7.5	W +4.5	131.5	U 109
Feb 14	@DART	W 79-76	+2.5	W +5.5	139.5	O 155
Feb 20	vsPRIN	W 80-71	-2.5	W +6.5	129.5	O 151
Feb 27	@COLU	L 62-80	+5.5	L −12.5	140.5	O 142
Feb 28	@COR	L 80-86	+9.5	W +3.5	156.5	O 166
Mar 6	vsPENN	L 61-82	-1.5	L −22.5	146.5	U 143

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SIE

L 46-62

−12.5

UVM

L 84-89

+0.5

L 77-90

−9.5

HAMP

L 63-72

−10.5

W 68-49

+16.5

STBK

L 70-80

−6.5

W 58-53

+3.5

UNH

W 59-47

+6.5

URI

L 56-66

+3.5

BRY

W 75-56

+12.5

PROV

L 79-86

+12.5

YALE

L 53-70

−8.5

PENN

L 73-81

−2.5

COLU

W 86-80

+8.5

COR

L 67-89

−19.5

PRIN

L 53-63

−5.5

HARV

L 59-69

−8.5

DART

L 70-77

−8.5

YALE

L 69-81

+3.5

HARV

L 53-56

+4.5

DART

W 79-76

+5.5

PRIN

W 80-71

+6.5

COLU

L 62-80

−12.5

COR

L 80-86

+3.5

PENN

L 61-82

−22.5

covered 13didn’t cover 12avg −1.6 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SIE

L 46-62

−34.5

UVM

L 84-89

+41.5

L 77-90

+37.5

HAMP

L 63-72

−4.5

W 68-49

−24.5

STBK

L 70-80

+13.5

W 58-53

−16.5

UNH

W 59-47

−30.5

URI

L 56-66

−16.5

BRY

W 75-56

+0.5

PROV

L 79-86

+19.5

YALE

L 53-70

−19.5

PENN

L 73-81

+8.5

COLU

W 86-80

+22.5

COR

L 67-89

−7.5

PRIN

L 53-63

−18.5

HARV

L 59-69

−4.5

DART

L 70-77

+4.5

YALE

L 69-81

+9.5

HARV

L 53-56

−22.5

DART

W 79-76

+15.5

PRIN

W 80-71

+21.5

COLU

L 62-80

+1.5

COR

L 80-86

+9.5

PENN

L 61-82

−3.5

over 13under 12avg +0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Vermont

32 games played

Straight up

20-12

63% wins

Against the spread

14-18

44% covers · avg −2.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

17-15

53% overs · avg +2 pts vs the total

Straight up

20-1263%

W W L L L W L L W W W L L W W W L W W W L L W W W L W W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

14-1844%

L W L W L L W L W W W L L W L L L W W W L L W L W L L L W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

17-1553%

O O O O O O O U U U O O O O U U O U U U O O U O O U U U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 9	@BRWN	W 89-84	-5.5	L −0.5	131.5	O 173
Nov 15	@NE	W 85-74	+1.5	W +12.5	134.5	O 159
Nov 18	@BUF	L 90-94	-1.5	L −5.5	141.5	O 184
Nov 24	vsLIB	L 73-79	+8.5	W +2.5	141.5	O 152
Nov 25	vsURI	L 65-80	+4.5	L −10.5	144.5	O 145
Nov 26	vsPRIN	W 79-74	-5.5	L −0.5	140.5	O 153
Nov 30	vsYALE	L 74-77	+6.5	W +3.5	147.5	O 151
Dec 3	@ORST	L 58-80	+3.5	L −18.5	143.5	U 138
Dec 6	@PEPP	W 65-56	-1.5	W +7.5	142.5	U 121
Dec 14	vsMRMK	W 66-59	-6.5	W +0.5	136.5	U 125
Dec 17	vsSIE	W 83-69	-2.5	W +11.5	134.5	O 152
Dec 20	vsIONA	L 78-83	-6.5	L −11.5	152.5	O 161
Dec 30	@PRIN	L 69-75	-3.5	L −9.5	136.5	O 144
Jan 3	@UNH	W 80-61	-7.5	W +11.5	139.5	O 141
Jan 8	vsBING	W 60-59	-20.5	L −19.5	140.5	U 119
Jan 15	vsME	W 67-62	-14.5	L −9.5	130.5	U 129
Jan 19	@UALB	L 68-75	-5.5	L −12.5	139.5	O 143
Jan 22	@UML	W 77-68	-4.5	W +4.5	145.5	U 145
Jan 24	@BRY	W 62-52	-8.5	W +1.5	133.5	U 114
Jan 29	vsUMBC	W 64-55	-8.5	W +0.5	141.5	U 119
Jan 31	vsNJIT	L 77-79	-13.5	L −15.5	139.5	O 156
Feb 5	@ME	L 70-76	-8.5	L −14.5	130.5	O 146
Feb 7	vsUNH	W 80-57	-9.5	W +13.5	138.5	U 137
Feb 12	@BING	W 73-65	-11.5	L −3.5	136.5	O 138
Feb 14	vsBRY	W 90-63	-13.5	W +13.5	133.5	O 153
Feb 19	@UMBC	L 62-75	-1.5	L −14.5	142.5	U 137
Feb 21	@NJIT	W 70-64	-6.5	L −0.5	142.5	U 134
Feb 26	vsUML	W 66-64	-9.5	L −7.5	146.5	U 130
Mar 3	vsUALB	W 69-56	-9.5	W +3.5	136.5	U 125
Mar 7	vsBRY	W 77-57	-11.5	W +8.5	130.5	O 134
Mar 10	vsNJIT	W 63-54	-10.5	L −1.5	134.5	U 117
Mar 14	@UMBC	L 59-74	+1.5	L −13.5	134.5	U 133

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

BRWN

W 89-84

−0.5

W 85-74

+12.5

BUF

L 90-94

−5.5

LIB

L 73-79

+2.5

URI

L 65-80

−10.5

PRIN

W 79-74

−0.5

YALE

L 74-77

+3.5

ORST

L 58-80

−18.5

PEPP

W 65-56

+7.5

MRMK

W 66-59

+0.5

SIE

W 83-69

+11.5

IONA

L 78-83

−11.5

PRIN

L 69-75

−9.5

UNH

W 80-61

+11.5

BING

W 60-59

−19.5

W 67-62

−9.5

UALB

L 68-75

−12.5

UML

W 77-68

+4.5

BRY

W 62-52

+1.5

UMBC

W 64-55

+0.5

NJIT

L 77-79

−15.5

L 70-76

−14.5

UNH

W 80-57

+13.5

BING

W 73-65

−3.5

BRY

W 90-63

+13.5

UMBC

L 62-75

−14.5

NJIT

W 70-64

−0.5

UML

W 66-64

−7.5

UALB

W 69-56

+3.5

BRY

W 77-57

+8.5

NJIT

W 63-54

−1.5

UMBC

L 59-74

−13.5

covered 14didn’t cover 18avg −2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

BRWN

W 89-84

+41.5

W 85-74

+24.5

BUF

L 90-94

+42.5

LIB

L 73-79

+10.5

URI

L 65-80

+0.5

PRIN

W 79-74

+12.5

YALE

L 74-77

+3.5

ORST

L 58-80

−5.5

PEPP

W 65-56

−21.5

MRMK

W 66-59

−11.5

SIE

W 83-69

+17.5

IONA

L 78-83

+8.5

PRIN

L 69-75

+7.5

UNH

W 80-61

+1.5

BING

W 60-59

−21.5

W 67-62

−1.5

UALB

L 68-75

+3.5

UML

W 77-68

−0.5

BRY

W 62-52

−19.5

UMBC

W 64-55

−22.5

NJIT

L 77-79

+16.5

L 70-76

+15.5

UNH

W 80-57

−1.5

BING

W 73-65

+1.5

BRY

W 90-63

+19.5

UMBC

L 62-75

−5.5

NJIT

W 70-64

−8.5

UML

W 66-64

−16.5

UALB

W 69-56

−11.5

BRY

W 77-57

+3.5

NJIT

W 63-54

−17.5

UMBC

L 59-74

−1.5

over 17under 15avg +2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Brown has the better starters

Position by position: Brown 2, Vermont 1, even 2

BrownBetterVermont

G J. Jenkins8.4 pts · 3.8 reb · 5.3 ast Score 47

BRWNSmall

G D. Yepdo TR10.6 pts · 3.2 reb · 3.3 ast Score 24

G A. Uchidiuno9.1 pts · 2.8 reb · 1.1 ast Score 20

Even

G J. Broom TR2 pts · 2.7 reb · 0.4 ast Score 14

G M. Wrisby-Jefferson4.4 pts · 3.6 reb · 2.6 ast Score 25

Even

G M. Nkugwa2.9 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.6 ast Score 31

G D. Rochester5.6 pts · 3.6 reb · 1.7 ast Score 27

UVMBig

F G. Yalden16.1 pts · 5.8 reb · 2.1 ast Score 96

F N. Dabo7.1 pts · 5.7 reb · 1 ast Score 72

BRWNSmall

F N. Barnett5.7 pts · 3.5 reb · 0.5 ast Score 41

BrownBetterVermont

BRWN offense220th of 366 · -6.7

UVMSmall

UVM defense134th of 366 · -2.5

BRWN defense124th of 366 · -2.2

BRWNBig

UVM offense264th of 366 · -8.1

Backcourt-6.6 · 4 players

UVMSmall

Backcourt-5.2 · 3 players

Frontcourt+1.0 · 1 player

UVMSmall

Frontcourt+3.3 · 2 players

Bench-2.4 · 5 players

UVMSmall

Bench-1.4 · 3 players

Score, worst to bestBRWN betterUVM betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers

Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined

Brown

Guards

J. Jenkins31 minA. Uchidiuno26 minM. Wrisby-Jefferson23 minD. Rochester22 minI. Langham21 minB. Loughlin18 min

Forwards

N. Dabo24 minC. O'Sullivan11 minW. DeGraaf8 minE. JamgbadiNewL. JonesNew

Vermont

Guards

D. Yepdo32 min · TRJ. Broom15 min · TRM. Nkugwa13 minD. Glazkov13 min · TRK. Badru10 min · TRS. Clemons2 min

Forwards

G. Yalden26 minN. Barnett22 minM. BrunettoNewM. MasicNewS. GbiegbaNew

In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.

Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams

ChartTable

Scoring

Points per game

BRWN67.2 #330

UVM72.1 #237

Points per possession

BRWN0.98 #338

UVM1.11 #124

Pace (possessions)

BRWN68.0 #229

UVM65.2 #342

Shooting

Effective FG%

BRWN48.6 #299

UVM53.1 #95

3-point %

BRWN30.3 #338

UVM33.3 #208

3-point attempt rate

BRWN36.3 #244

UVM44.6 #77

Free throw rate

BRWN28.1 #342

UVM31.1 #279

Possessions

Turnover rate

BRWN19.4 #334

UVM14.3 #34

Offensive rebound rate

BRWN29.0 #236

UVM26.2 #318

Assists per game

BRWN14.8 #99

UVM12.3 #266

Defense

Points allowed

BRWN72.4 #115

UVM68.8 #44

Points allowed per possession

BRWN1.07 #134

UVM1.05 #96

Opponent effective FG%

BRWN51.3 #176

UVM50.4 #121

Opponent 3-point %

BRWN33.5 #157

UVM35.3 #267

Turnovers forced

BRWN18.8 #57

UVM14.8 #307

Defensive rebound rate

BRWN70.0 #164

UVM77.0 #2

Steals per game

BRWN7.5 #82

UVM4.5 #354

Blocks per game

BRWN3.8 #104

UVM2.7 #279

BRWN		UVM
Scoring
67.2 #330	Points per game	72.1 #237
0.98 #338	Points per possession	1.11 #124
68.0 #229	Pace (possessions)	65.2 #342
Shooting
48.6 #299	Effective FG%	53.1 #95
30.3 #338	3-point %	33.3 #208
36.3 #244	3-point attempt rate	44.6 #77
28.1 #342	Free throw rate	31.1 #279
Possessions
19.4 #334	Turnover rate	14.3 #34
29.0 #236	Offensive rebound rate	26.2 #318
14.8 #99	Assists per game	12.3 #266
Defense
72.4 #115	Points allowed	68.8 #44
1.07 #134	Points allowed per possession	1.05 #96
51.3 #176	Opponent effective FG%	50.4 #121
33.5 #157	Opponent 3-point %	35.3 #267
18.8 #57	Turnovers forced	14.8 #307
70.0 #164	Defensive rebound rate	77.0 #2
7.5 #82	Steals per game	4.5 #354
3.8 #104	Blocks per game	2.7 #279

From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Brown

7-18 in 2025-26 overall · 3-11 in conference · Ivy League

Last five, 2025-26

Lvs Penn61–82
L@ Cornell80–86
L@ Columbia62–80
Wvs Princeton80–71
W@ Dartmouth79–76

A week or more of rest.

Vermont

20-12 in 2025-26 overall · 14-5 in conference · America East Conference

Last five, 2025-26

L@ UMBC59–74
Wvs NJIT63–54
Wvs Bryant77–57
Wvs UAlbany69–56
Wvs UMass Lowell66–64

A week or more of rest.

Brown Bears at Vermont Catamounts

What could decide it: UVM has more of the edges

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Next 3 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Brown

Vermont

Brown has the better starters

Depth chart

Matchup stats

Brown

Vermont