1. NCAAB
  2. Sat, Nov 21
  3. CHSO @ MER
NCAAB · Sat, Nov 21

Charleston Southern Buccaneers at Mercer Bears

Hawkins Arena · at Mercer
#326CHSOCharleston So
@
#242MERMercer
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
CHSOThis seasonMER
0-0Record0-0
0-0ATS0-0
0-0O/U0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects MER 81–74 · win probability MER 75%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 155.3
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: MER has more of the edges

CHSO 2, MER 4 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
MERBig
Free throws
Free throw rate: CHSO 30.5, MER 39.2. Allowed: CHSO 43.3, MER 29.7
MERBig
Turnovers
Turnover rate: CHSO 18.6%, MER 15.0%. Forced: CHSO 12.8%, MER 17.0%
MERBig
MER offense vs CHSO defense
Offense 223rd of 366 against a defense 358th, on the model’s ratings
CHSOBig
Three-pointers
CHSO hits 35.6% and allows 31.9%; MER hits 35.6% and allows 36.2%. Threes are 49.5% and 39.2% of their shots
CHSOBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: CHSO 54.1 and allows 47.0; MER 53.1 and allows 52.5
Context
Schedule so far
CHSO has played the 297th-hardest schedule, MER the 193rd. A record against a soft schedule means less
Context
Tempo
About 72 possessions: CHSO plays 75.1 a game (5th fastest), MER 69.5 (148th). Faster games mean more points
MERSmall
Home court
MER at home. This season: MER 0-0 at home, CHSO 0-0 away
Even
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: CHSO 22%, MER 28%. Transfers in: CHSO 3, MER 2. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
Even
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: CHSO 29.4%, MER 32.6%. Defensive: CHSO 69.7%, MER 66.8%
Even
CHSO offense vs MER defense
Offense 268th of 366 against a defense 268th, on the model’s ratings
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—MER -7.6—
Total—155.3—
Projected score—CHSO 73.8 · MER 81.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadMER -4.4—
1H total72.5—
1H projected scoreCHSO 34.1 · MER 38.5—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Mercer has the better starters

Position by position: Charleston So 0, Mercer 2, even 3
Charleston SoBetterMercer
G J. Taylor4.8 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.1 ast Score 2
MERBig
G B. Shoulders9.5 pts · 6.6 reb · 1.8 ast Score 41
G N. Errica TR1.3 pts · 0 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
No call
G Q. Perkins8.7 pts · 1.4 reb · 1.6 ast Score 22
F L. Olalere4.7 pts · 4 reb · 0.8 ast Score 26
MERBig
F K. Steele TR8 pts · 4.4 reb · 0.9 ast Score 62
F D. Brafford1.9 pts · 2.1 reb · 0.4 ast Not ranked
No call
F M. Mabor Makoi TR1.4 pts · 2.4 reb · 0.1 ast Score 10
F M. Majok TR2.2 pts · 1.6 reb · 0 ast Not ranked
No call
F P. Padegimas NEWNo Division I numbers yet Not ranked
Charleston SoBetterMercer
CHSO offense268th of 366 · -8.1
Even
MER defense268th of 366 · -6.8
CHSO defense358th of 366 · -10.2
MERBig
MER offense223rd of 366 · -6.8
Backcourt-3.6 · 2 players
Even
Backcourt-3.4 · 2 players
Frontcourt-1.0 · 3 players
Even
Frontcourt-0.6 · 3 players
Bench+0.0 · 1 player
No call
BenchNo numbers yet
Score, worst to bestCHSO betterMER betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
Charleston So
Guards
J. Taylor21 minN. Errica4 min · TRJ. McLambNewJ. CrawfordNewA. RuffoloNewR. BrooksNew
Forwards
L. Olalere16 minD. Brafford7 minM. Majok5 min · TRT. Deng1 min · TRM. LeslieNew
Mercer
Guards
B. Shoulders32 minQ. Perkins24 minM. KoveosNewD. BarrNewH. LyttleNewK. LamonteNew
Forwards
K. Steele21 min · TRM. Mabor Makoi8 min · TRP. PadegimasNewS. MayhughNewD. KovacevicNew
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
CHSOMER
Scoring
80.9 #44Points per game80.1 #65
1.08 #188Points per possession1.15 #55
75.1 #5Pace (possessions)69.5 #148
Shooting
54.1 #66Effective FG%53.1 #98
35.6 #783-point %35.6 #87
49.5 #163-point attempt rate39.2 #188
30.5 #296Free throw rate39.2 #74
Possessions
18.6 #302Turnover rate15.0 #67
29.4 #223Offensive rebound rate32.6 #102
15.7 #57Assists per game12.7 #240
Defense
81.0 #332Points allowed77.8 #263
1.08 #150Points allowed per possession1.12 #273
47.0 #21Opponent effective FG%52.5 #242
31.9 #58Opponent 3-point %36.2 #311
12.8 #362Turnovers forced17.0 #155
69.7 #174Defensive rebound rate66.8 #303
4.9 #339Steals per game7.1 #115
4.9 #21Blocks per game3.2 #186
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

Charleston So

12-17 in 2025-26 overall · 6-11 in conference · Big South Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Winthrop81–86
  • W@ UNC Asheville92–75
  • Wvs Winthrop86–84
  • Lvs Longwood96–107
  • Wvs Gardner-Webb75–66

A week or more of rest.

Mercer

16-13 in 2025-26 overall · 11-8 in conference · Southern Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs W Carolina73–77
  • Wvs ETSU82–76
  • L@ W Carolina74–78
  • Wvs Samford89–86
  • Lvs Chattanooga90–94

A week or more of rest.