1. NCAAB
  2. Fri, Nov 13
  3. NCCU @ LIB
NCAAB · Fri, Nov 13

North Carolina Central Eagles at Liberty Flames

Liberty Arena (VA) · at Liberty
#357NCCUNC Central
@
#160LIBLiberty
LineNo line yet 
Total— 
NCCUThis seasonLIB
0-0Record0-1
0-0ATS0-1
0-0O/U0-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model: projects LIB 81–62 · win probability LIB 94%
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Winner
Line
—
no line yet
Total
—
model 142.8
Model edge
—
No market line yet
Public
—
No split yet for this game
The model has not beaten the closing line: with an edge of 3 or more it went 409-367 in 2025-26. Model record

What could decide it: LIB has more of the edges

NCCU 1, LIB 7 · 2025-26 numbers until both teams have played three games
LIBBig
NCCU offense vs LIB defense
Offense 345th of 366 against a defense 138th, on the model’s ratings
LIBBig
Shooting
Effective FG%: NCCU 47.5 and allows 54.5; LIB 59.1 and allows 52.7
Context
Schedule so far
NCCU has played the 310th-hardest schedule, LIB the 148th. A record against a soft schedule means less
LIBBig
LIB offense vs NCCU defense
Offense 202nd of 366 against a defense 352nd, on the model’s ratings
LIBSmall
Three-pointers
NCCU hits 32.6% and allows 36.4%; LIB hits 38.6% and allows 37.7%. Threes are 33.9% and 47.7% of their shots
LIBSmall
Who is back
Minutes back from last season: NCCU 4%, LIB 47%. Transfers in: NCCU 4, LIB 2. Early in a season, turnover makes teams harder to price
LIBSmall
Turnovers
Turnover rate: NCCU 18.2%, LIB 13.4%. Forced: NCCU 19.8%, LIB 17.0%
LIBSmall
Home court
LIB at home. This season: LIB 0-0 at home, NCCU 0-0 away
NCCUSmall
Rebounding
Offensive rebound rate: NCCU 30.0%, LIB 19.3%. Defensive: NCCU 60.6%, LIB 66.9%
Context
Tempo
About 66 possessions: NCCU plays 66.9 a game (282nd fastest), LIB 65.1 (343rd). Faster games mean more points
Even
Free throws
Free throw rate: NCCU 39.3, LIB 31.4. Allowed: NCCU 36.9, LIB 27.0
Sorted by how lopsided each matchup is, from national ranks. Reasons to look, not picks: the market already knows most of this.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Moneyline
—

Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.

Model vs market

MarketModelModel edge
Spread—LIB -18.1—
Total—142.8—
Projected score—NCCU 62.3 · LIB 80.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›
ModelActual
1H spreadLIB -10.7—
1H total66.8—
1H projected scoreNCCU 28.1 · LIB 38.7—
The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Liberty has the better starters

Position by position: NC Central 0, Liberty 2, even 3
NC CentralBetterLiberty
G T. Brown TR3.3 pts · 2.3 reb · 1.3 ast Score 11
LIBBig
G C. Campbell TR12.8 pts · 3.5 reb · 4.1 ast Score 67
G R. Archey3.1 pts · 1 reb · 0.7 ast Not ranked
No call
G E. Sancomb10 pts · 6 reb · 4 ast Score 55
F C. Meeks TR5.7 pts · 5.7 reb · 0.7 ast Score 6
LIBSmall
G C. Campbell TR9 pts · 1.9 reb · 1.5 ast Score 31
F T. Mason TR5 pts · 2.3 reb · 0.1 ast Score 32
Even
G Z. Carter2.9 pts · 1.6 reb · 0.6 ast Score 27
F M. Vassel TR1.7 pts · 1.2 reb · 0.1 ast Not ranked
No call
F D. Claussen2 pts · 3 reb · 2 ast Score 50
NC CentralBetterLiberty
NCCU offense345th of 366 · -11.9
LIBBig
LIB defense138th of 366 · -2.9
NCCU defense352nd of 366 · -9.9
LIBBig
LIB offense202nd of 366 · -6.3
Backcourt-2.4 · 2 players
Even
Backcourt-2.8 · 4 players
Frontcourt-5.2 · 3 players
LIBBig
Frontcourt-1.0 · 1 player
BenchNo numbers yet
No call
Bench-1.0 · 5 players
Score, worst to bestNCCU betterLIB betterTR transfer · NEW no Division I numbers
Projected starters: college teams publish no depth chart, so these come from minutes played, and a freshman or a new starter can change them. The score is the share of ranked players at the position that player is ahead of. Numbers are this season's once a player has 30 minutes, 2025-26's before that. Bench is the next five by minutes. Tap a player for the full numbers.

Depth chart

Projected rotation by position, starters outlined
NC Central
Guards
T. Brown14 min · TRR. Archey8 minD. KaneNewC. SanonNewI. BuckleyNewA. BowserNew
Forwards
C. Meeks29 min · TRT. Mason12 min · TRM. Vassel8 min · TRJ. PriceNewD. DuorNew
Centers
D. MbaetekaNew
Liberty
Guards
C. Campbell35 min · TRE. Sancomb34 minC. Campbell29 min · TRZ. Carter12 minM. SheltonNewE. HerbertNew
Forwards
D. Claussen33 minR. Jones5 minB. Kester3 minD. Grimes3 minT. Drain2 minT. Sorensen2 min
In order of minutes, from rosters as of today. ESPN lists players only as guards, forwards or centers, and no injury report exists for college basketball, so a player who is out may still show here.
Showing 2025-26 until both teams have played this season.

Matchup stats

2025-26 · rank among 365 teams
Scoring
Shooting
Possessions
Defense
NCCULIB
Scoring
67.6 #322Points per game75.8 #146
1.02 #308Points per possession1.17 #41
66.9 #282Pace (possessions)65.1 #343
Shooting
47.5 #328Effective FG%59.1 #4
32.6 #2473-point %38.6 #8
33.9 #2993-point attempt rate47.7 #28
39.3 #72Free throw rate31.4 #273
Possessions
18.2 #285Turnover rate13.4 #13
30.0 #201Offensive rebound rate19.3 #365
12.1 #279Assists per game16.5 #36
Defense
77.3 #246Points allowed72.2 #110
1.15 #322Points allowed per possession1.11 #234
54.5 #317Opponent effective FG%52.7 #251
36.4 #321Opponent 3-point %37.7 #353
19.8 #27Turnovers forced17.0 #149
60.6 #364Defensive rebound rate66.9 #302
7.7 #60Steals per game6.2 #218
3.4 #165Blocks per game3.3 #178
From the box scores. A longer bar is a better national rank, on every row; the better team's bar is solid. A green rank is near the top of Division I, a red one near the bottom. Pace and 3-point rate are styles, so they have no better side.

NC Central

10-18 in 2025-26 overall · 10-7 in conference · Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference

Last five, 2025-26
  • Lvs Howard63–70
  • Wvs Delaware St59–53
  • Wvs MD Eastern83–76
  • Lvs SC State64–80
  • W@ MD Eastern77–73

A week or more of rest.

Liberty

23-8 in 2025-26 overall · 17-4 in conference · Conference USA

Last five, 2025-26
  • L@ Nevada63–73
  • W@ George Mason77–71
  • Lvs Missouri St69–77
  • Wvs Sam Houston79–72
  • Lvs Louisiana Tech71–76

A week or more of rest.